Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Junction City, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:40PM Monday May 21, 2018 8:00 AM PDT (15:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:14AMMoonset 12:51AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 221 Am Pdt Mon May 21 2018
.small craft advisory for winds in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt early in the evening. Wind waves N 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue..N wind 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves N 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..N wind 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, easing to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves N 3 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 6 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 7 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Fri..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 7 ft.
PZZ200 221 Am Pdt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure strengthens over the waters today, bringing stronger northerly winds this afternoon and evening. Expect a repeat of this on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Pressure gradient relaxes on Wednesday. At the same time, westerly swell increases midweek.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Junction City, OR
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location: 44.2, -123.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 211127 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service portland or
426 am pdt Mon may 21 2018
updated aviation discussion

Synopsis Onshore flow will weaken tonight and Monday, with much
less clouds and warmer temperatures for Mon and tue. However, the
upper low over the western CONUS will bring minor chance of showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm to the cascades for Wed through fri. Rest
of region should remain dry, though a tad cooler. A new low pres
system will arrive next weekend, with increasing chance of showers.

Flow aloft turns more southeasterly, so could even see a thunderstorm
just about anywhere later Sat through sun.

Short term Today through Thursday... The pacific NW is sandwiched
between two upper lows, one over southern california and the other
over the gulf of alaska. The marine stratus is much less extensive
early this morning and is mainly along the coast and parts of the
coast range and cascade foothills. The marine stratus is not moving
inland despite onshore surface winds. The 925-700 mb winds are
offshore, and are likely counteracting the lower level NW flow.

Expect some westward expansion of the low clouds that are currently
over the cascades this morning into parts of the willamette valley,
but there will be pockets of clear skies.

High pressure nudging into the area today will result in more
northerly flow near the surface, and any low clouds lingering over
the
area should clear fairly quickly later this morning. With quite a bit
of sunshine inland today the temperatures will warm into the 70s. The
north winds and drier air will provide clearing for the coast as
well, with coastal temperatures warming close to 65 this afternoon.

Less clouds expected tonight as high pressure persists over the
region with north flow. A sunnier start Tuesday will result in a
warmer afternoon with temperatures peaking in the low 80s inland and
upper 60s for the coast. Showers associated with an upper low moving
inland south of oregon may clip the cascades of lane county Tuesday
night, but impacts will be minimal. Onshore winds increase Tuesday
night, and a deepening marine layer due to an approaching trough will
likely return marine clouds to the coast. Light SW winds Wednesday
morning may push the marine clouds up into the south and central
willamette valley.

The atmosphere will become more unstable Wednesday as an upper level
trough nears the coast, and places the pacific NW under an area of
diffluence. Flow will become southerly, and increasing mid-level
moisture will creating a favorable environment for showers and
possibly thunderstorms over the cascades Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

The offshore trough will likely split over the pacific maintaining
the influence of high pressure over the pacific nw. This will allow
any marine clouds that form Wednesday night to clear quickly Thursday
morning, maintaining unseasonal warm temperatures. An upper low
offshore of california will maintain south flow and chances for
cascade showers Thursday afternoon. ~tj

Long term No changes. Previous discussion follows... Thursday night
through Sunday... An upper low will move inland over south california
Friday with continued south to southeast flow through good part of
the coming weekend. Weak disturbances rotating around the low will
move up from north calif into southern and central oregon. This will
bring much more unstable air to the region, along with decent chances
for showers and even thunderstorms. Models indicate the upper low
will lift up and across oregon later Sat night and sun. While have
some differences in models, as GFS lifts the low north across western
oregon and western washington on sun, while ECMWF trending to lifting
the low off across southeast oregon. The later would mean more
onshore flow across our area, with cooler temperatures but less
chances of showers for sun. If take GFS trend, would have much higher
chances of showers and thunderstorms. For now, will trend bit more
towards gfs. rockey

Aviation Stratus is backbuilding off of the cascade foothills
and filling into the willamette valley. Will likely see MVFR
stratus into keug, ksle, and kttd very soon. Will probably see
most terminals fill in with MVFR stratus. Otherwise, previous
forecast for coastal terminals still stands. MVFR stratus will
continue to drift in and out of coastal terminals for another
hour or two, then fill in along the coast and stay socked in
until around 18z-20z. Inland terminals will hold on to MVFR
stratus until around 17z-18z when stratus breaks up and skies
start to clear. ExpectVFR conditions across the area this
afternoon continuing through this evening.

Kpdx and approaches... Starting to see low stratus backbuild off
the cascade foothills. We may have CIGS around 1500-2000 ft move
into the terminal after 14z-15z and persist until around 17z-18z
when stratus starts to break up.VFR conditions this afternoon
through this evening into the overnight hours. -mccoy

Marine Seas currently 3 to 5 feet with light nnw winds. The
pressure gradients will increase over the waters this afternoon,
bringing gusts up to 25 kt to the waters at least south of
cascade head. Could see a few gusts up to 23 kt south of
tillamook, but for now leaving this zone out of the advisory.

There will be another round of stronger northerly winds Tuesday
afternoon and evening. As winds ramp up through Tuesday, we
will see seas build up to around 7 to 8 feet by Tuesday evening.

Stronger northerly winds retreat farther offshore on Wednesday,
but models are now suggesting northerly winds may ramp back up on
Thursday afternoon and evening for another round of 20 to 25 kt
winds Thursday evening and again Friday afternoon and evening.

Seas through the end of the workweek will continue to hover
around 7 to 8 feet. -mccoy

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds from 4 pm this afternoon to 3 am
pdt Tuesday for coastal waters from cascade head or to
florence or out 60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 52 mi49 min E 5.1 G 5.1 49°F 52°F1017.9 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 53 mi61 min E 5.1 G 6 49°F 1018 hPa (-0.3)
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 76 mi51 min N 12 G 14 57°F1018.4 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR6 mi67 minN 010.00 miOvercast48°F46°F96%1017.9 hPa
Corvallis, Corvallis Municipal Airport, OR22 mi65 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F46°F89%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW34CalmE3545N6N6NE6N7W6CalmCalmCalmNE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS3S3S3E3Calm334SE3NE3NE6NE6N4N6CalmNE3SE3W4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalm3SE3CalmNE5N6NE8N9N7E4E4E4CalmCalmSW3W4W4SW3CalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Drift Creek, Alsea River, Oregon
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Drift Creek
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Mon -- 01:09 AM PDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:42 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:51 AM PDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:16 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:49 PM PDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:41 PM PDT     5.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM PDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.51.934.35.45.75.54.83.82.61.40.5-0.1-0.30.31.534.45.35.45.14.43.5

Tide / Current Tables for Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Toledo
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:30 AM PDT     2.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:41 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:00 AM PDT     7.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:16 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:13 PM PDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM PDT     6.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM PDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.63.34.55.86.87.26.95.94.42.71.1-0.1-0.6-0.40.62.23.95.46.56.86.55.64.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.