Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Junction City, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:02PM Monday January 15, 2018 11:35 PM PST (07:35 UTC) Moonrise 6:36AMMoonset 4:07PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm-coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 853 Pm Pst Mon Jan 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves S 5 ft at 4 seconds. SW swell 13 ft at 11 seconds. SEcondary swell W 7 ft at 15 seconds. Rain.
Tue..S wind 10 to 15 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 5 ft at 5 seconds. SW swell 12 ft at 13 seconds. Showers.
Tue night..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves se 4 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 13 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..S wind 20 to 25 kt, rising to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 13 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 25 to 30 kt, easing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Combined seas 19 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds. Rain.
Thu..SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 26 ft. Showers.
Thu night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 26 ft. Showers.
Fri..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 20 ft.
Sat..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 18 ft.
PZZ200 853 Pm Pst Mon Jan 15 2018
Synopsis for southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Weak high pressure develops over the waters Tuesday. A much stronger weather system moves through the waters late Wednesday through Thursday, which will likely produce strong gale force wind and possibly storm force conditions. The system will also generate very high seas, which may approach 30 feet late Wednesday night and Thursday. The active pattern continues through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Junction City, OR
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location: 44.2, -123.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 160528 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
923 pm pst Mon jan 15 2018

Synopsis Rain tonight starts the active weather pattern coming
week. It will be wet and unsettled as a series of significant storm
systems move through the pacific northwest. After the system tonight
tue, another stronger system arrives later Wednesday, and third
disturbance this weekend. Snow levels will briefly drop to near the
cascade passes Tuesday before lowering significantly below the passes
Thursday and Friday with decent snow accumulations in the cascades
possible. Snow levels will remain below the passes this weekend.

Short term Today through Thursday. The blocking upper ridge that
brought mild jan weather this holiday weekend is no more. However a
pan pacific satellite view shows the jet stream storm track
stretching along 40n all the way to the japan china region. The
first system is spreading rain across the area this evening. This
system is arriving in pieces so to speak, as short waves rotate
around the parent low presently near 51n 139w. the first piece moved
in this afternoon, another piece arrives early tue. Snow levels in
the cascades fall to pass elevations late tonight and Tuesday, but
the precipitation amounts don't look high enough to support issuing a
winter weather advisory. Precipitation will turn showery with this
system Tuesday, decreasing from the south to north later Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

There is a bit of a break in the precipitation Tuesday night and
early Wednesday, but the next cold front slowly spreads some rain
onshore in the afternoon. The main front moves through with rather
heavy rain Wednesday night, and the latest guidance continues to
trend a little a little slower with the progress of the front. Thus,
will need to continue to monitor QPF for any potential hydrological
issues. This system will have some wind along the coast but
strongest gusts may remain below warning criteria. Large
waves over the coastal waters will likely produce high surf
conditions along the beaches Thu & into fri. The high tides for thu
& Fri will be on the low end range of high tides for this month. This
will somewhat reduce the severity impacts of the large waves.

Snow levels will stay above the passes until Wednesday night and
Thursday, but lower behind the cold front early Thursday to around
2,000 feet as the colder air mass arrives and showers continue in the
post-frontal instability. This looks to be the start of some
additional snow in the cascades - a welcome sight given the
abnormally low snowpack in the oregon cascades for this
point in the season. 26 cullen

Long term Thursday night through Monday... The pac NW will remain
in an active weather pattern through the end of the forecast period.

Models continue to show the upper level trough settling in over the
pac NW later this week. This will bring cool and showery conditions
to the region Thursday night and Friday with snow levels around 2000
to 3000 ft. Models then show a series of wet frontal systems moving
across the forecast area over the weekend. These will likely bring
another round of heavy rain, strong winds, and cascade snow to the
region. However, impacts over the weekend remain a bit fuzzy at the
moment due to distinct differences in timing, strength and location
of the various systems. Nonetheless, it is becoming increasingly
likely that the cascades could get several inches of new snow this
weekend. In addition, we could also see sharp rises on some of our
river over the weekend. Showers look to return on Monday as the
upper level trough moves across the pac nw. 64

Aviation Vfr conditions throughout the area. Rain moving
through the area is only causing minor, temporary visibility
restriction. Winds continue to hold strong through the gorge,
but with the pressure gradient dropping slackening, expect winds
to taper off a bit at kttd and kpdx in the next few hours.

Pdx and approaches... LikelyVFR conditions continuing through the
period. Strong east winds are holding on, but as the gradient
slackens, expect winds to weaken in the next few hours. Bentley

Marine Cancelled the gale warning as winds had dropped to the
low to mid 20 kt range over the waters, but of course right after
the cancellation buoy 89 came in with a gust to 35 kts. At this
point, expect more observations to come in below 33 kts than come
in above, so am okay with keeping the small craft advisory for
now. Since the gale warning was cancelled this evening, went
ahead and hoisted a gale watch starting 10z Wednesday for the
strong winds approaching with the next low pressure center.

Confidence is high that winds will be at least gale strength, and
we were the whole without a gale watch once the gale warning
expired. Bentley
wind speeds ramp up again beginning Tue night as another deep low
develops in the NE pac. This low is forecast to have a center around
960 mb 12z Wed near 45n 142w. The NAM is much weaker, but the low
development is near the edge of the NAM outer boundary. By 00z
thu the low center moves to about 48n 135w. Expect solid gale
force wind to develop in the outer waters 12z-18z Wed and then
spread to the inner waters by the afternoon. The GFS indicates a
core of 45-55 kt boundary layer wind speeds over the outer waters
by 21z wed. Believe the GFS may be a little strong with its wind
field, therefore went with a blend of the ECMWF and gfs. Models
show more variance beyond Fri and leaned toward the ecmwf. This
implies sub gale-force wind Fri and sat, with a potential return
to gale force wind Sunday.

Seas have been slow to respond early this afternoon, but still
expect a gradual increase to the mid to upper teens after 00z
tue. Seas gradually ease to the lower teens by Tuesday morning.

The biggest forecast question will be wave heights late Wed night
and Thu with the next deepening low. The latest enp guidance has
come in a little lower with its maximum wave height core. This
latest run develops a bullseye of around 48 ft at 46n 134w 06z
thu. This is about 3 ft lower than its previous run. This decays
to around 30 ft over the inner waters 18z thu. Did not go that
robust just yet and went closer to the ECMWF guidance. Seas
diminish significantly fri, but will remain at least 15-20 ft
into sun. Seas likely to exceed 20 ft again Sat night and sun.

Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Gale watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night
for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 2 am pst Wednesday for waters from
cape shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Gale watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or
out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory until 10 am pst Wednesday for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 am
pst Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 52 mi48 min S 5.1 G 9.9 52°F 53°F1016.2 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 53 mi36 min S 11 G 14 53°F
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 76 mi36 min SSW 12 G 16 52°F 1016.3 hPa (+2.8)48°F

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Eugene, Mahlon Sweet Field, OR6 mi42 minESE 610.00 miLight Rain47°F46°F100%1017.5 hPa
Corvallis, Corvallis Municipal Airport, OR22 mi40 minESE 69.00 miLight Rain46°F45°F96%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from EUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6SW3CalmW3SW4CalmW10SE6
1 day agoCalmSW5S3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3CalmSE4SW3CalmCalmNE3
2 days agoCalmSW5CalmSW6SW4CalmNW3CalmSW3CalmCalmNE3NE6N6N5E3CalmCalmCalmSW3SW4S3S3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Drift Creek, Alsea River, Oregon
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Drift Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:58 AM PST     5.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:10 AM PST     1.82 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:25 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:59 AM PST     6.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:01 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:03 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 07:59 PM PST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.15.55.24.63.72.92.21.82.23.44.96.36.86.55.84.73.420.90.1-0.20.31.63.2

Tide / Current Tables for Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Toledo
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:19 AM PST     6.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:25 AM PST     3.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:26 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:48 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:05 PM PST     8.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:00 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:03 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 07:20 PM PST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.36.86.75.94.83.83.23.34.15.46.98.18.68.37.35.73.71.90.5-0.2-0.10.92.54.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.