Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 2:56 PM   Moonset 2:33 AM

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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog and a chance of showers in the morning, then areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - N wind to 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Wed night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - SE wind 5 kt, veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the W at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 3 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 206 Am Pdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure will continue through the weekend before the next front arrives late Monday night into Tuesday.

FXUS66 KPQR 180946 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 245 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough will lead to cool weather this weekend, with a few showers mainly in the north. Temperatures bounce back to mid-May normals Monday as a transitory high pressure ridge slides across the Pac NW. More widespread showers are possible Tuesday into Wednesday as another upper trough swings through the region. Unsettled and generally cool weather is expected to persist through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM
Now through Monday...Latest GOES-West satellite derived winds show a 90-100 kt jet stream over the NE Pacific, aiming toward the Pac NW coast. This will carry a pair of weak shortwave upper disturbances onshore into the Pac NW this weekend, leading to cool and somewhat unsettled weather. That said, a strong capping inversion around 700 mb will keep showers from becoming too boisterous or widespread. In fact, many locations in the CWA may make it through the entire weekend without a drop of rain. So the more noticeable weather will be somewhat cool temperatures as 850 mb temps generally range between -2 and +2 deg C throughout the weekend. West to northwest winds will be breezy at times. Snow levels dip to around 3500 feet tonight into Sunday morning, so the passes may see a brief dusting of snow. With marginal temperatures, impacts should be minimal.

Low to mid level flow becomes anticyclonic Sunday night into Monday as a shortwave ridge of high pressure slides SE across the forecast area. This will lead to a dry day with plenty of sunshine. After a chilly start, temps should warm to around 70 degrees for the inland valleys Monday afternoon - which is pretty close to normal for the time of year.

Will need to watch the Upper Hood River Valley for the potential of frost each morning through Monday, given the chilly air mass. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance suggests the best chance of temps reaching 35 deg F or cooler will be early Sunday morning, when there is roughly a 60% chance of Parkdale being that cold. These probabilities fall off dramatically north of Parkdale, with only a 10% chance shown for Odell. For now this coverage/probability does not seem sufficient to warrant a Frost Advisory. Weagle

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Friday...Unsettled weather looks to return Tuesday as another upper trough dives S-SE from the BC coast.
The 00z WPC clusters show a variety of trajectories for the upper trough, with members almost evenly split between an "inside slider" solution with an inland trajectory versus a track closer to the coast. The latter would pose a better chance for showers across the forecast area, and it would be colder - potentially cold enough to bring some snow to the Cascade passes. The latter solution would also invite a second system to follow later in the week, prolonging the cool/unsettled weather. Given the uncertainty in track and timing, our forecast mostly uses the National Blend of Models deterministic forecast onward from Tuesday. This shows the best shower chances on Tuesday, with chances generally decreasing after that. Lowland high temps are forecast to generally be in the upper 50s along the coast and 60s inland, while the higher terrain sees 40s and 50s. Some of our cooler valleys may not be totally out of the woods yet when it comes to frost - NBM shows roughly a 10-20% chance of lows 35 deg F or cooler for Parkdale each morning Wednesday through Friday. This would require the upper trough to set up far enough west to bring a chill to the air mass, but not too far west to where clouds and precipitation would hold temps up during the overnight hours. Weagle



AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the next 24 hours as high pressure remains in place. An upper level disturbance will bring increasing chances for light rain showers after 14z Saturday along the north coast and after 20z inland.
That being said, significant drops in visibilities and/or cigs are not expected with passing showers (very brief periods of high-end MVFR cigs at best).

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR flight conditions through Saturday night. Winds will generally remain out of the northwest sustained between 5-10 kt, however gusts should temporarily increase to around 20 kt between 00-03z Sunday. -TK

MARINE
Buoy observations from early Saturday morning showed the continuation of northerly winds, however gusts had fallen to around 20 kt. Seas were improving and becoming less steep as wave heights were falling to around 6 ft with a dominant wave period of 9 seconds. As such, will allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire at 6am Saturday.

High pressure over the upcoming weekend will result in a typical summertime northerly flow regime with wind gusts peaking in strength during the afternoon/evening hours each day. The strongest winds will occur over the southern zones where marginal small craft advisory level wind gusts to 25 kt are possible (30-40% chance on Saturday increasing to a 40-70% chance on Sunday and Monday). Waves will become steep and choppy again early Sunday morning and then remain steep into Monday as a fresh northwest swell around 7-8 ft with a wave period around 8 seconds interacts with northerly wind waves.

The next frontal passage of any significance is set to arrive late Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing rain and a shift to westerly winds. However, wind gusts look to generally stay around or below 20 kt as the pressure gradient associated with this frontal passage appears rather weak. The exception to that is over the northern outer waters where isolated small craft advisory level gusts to 25 kt are possible (20-50% chance). -TK

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ251>253-271>273.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ271>273.

Drift Creek, Alsea River, Oregon, Tide feet

Toledo
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Sat -- 03:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:05 AM PDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:44 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:41 AM PDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:40 PM PDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:58 PM PDT     7.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon, Tide feet

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