Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 3:18 AM   Moonset 2:17 PM

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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 321 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Tonight - SE winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sat - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Sat night - S winds around 5 kt in the evening, becoming light and variable. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds. Rain likely. Mon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Tue - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Tue night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wed - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ100 321 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure gradually builds south through the maritimes and into the gulf of maine this weekend with light and variable flow becoming southeasterly late Saturday into Sunday this flow regime may introduce fog on Sunday and Sunday night, while an approaching cold front will bring increasing chances for rain showers. The front crosses the waters Sunday night into Monday with fresh southwest to westerly flow developing. Flow becomes more variable toward midweek with a weak and fluctuating pressure gradient.

FXUS61 KGYX 031643 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1243 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure near the coast will provide a drier and quieter couple of days between today and Saturday, however, it will also contribute to a growing onshore flow this weekend.
Thickening clouds, cooler temperatures and rain showers are expected by Sunday... with clearing likely not coming until Monday. Warmer and sunnier conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday, then more unsettled weather returns around the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
1245 PM Update... Another round of minor changes to the near term portion of the forecast through the remainder of the day.
The earlier sunshine and heating has allowed for a cu field to develop with the greatest cloud cover located over southern NH.
Partly sunny skies and a few additional degrees of warming can be expected through the remainder of the afternoon.

Previously...
945 AM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Partly sunny skies will persist through the day with warmer high temperatures than yesterday.

Previously...
Impacts: *No significant weather impacts expected

1030 AM UPDATE...Breaks in the clouds are making for a sunny morning in many places. Fog is still present in many of the valleys, but that is expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. This update was the usual refreshing of near term temperature, dewpoint, and sky trends with observations.

Previous Discussion...
Clouds continue to roll over the ridge this morning, however a clear slot did develop overnight allowing fog to form and some areas to quickly drop a few degrees. Now, as the mid- level cloud deck fills back in, fog is dissipating and temperatures are plateauing. As the ridge moves overhead and surface high pressure builds in today, skies will gradually clear and with BUFKIT soundings showing a return to good mixing, high temperatures should climb into the 60s areawide. The only exception would be the coast where the seabreeze will keep temperatures in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected

Skies will remain partly cloudy overnight which will keep us from having a widespread radiational cooling night, but with continued light winds there is opportunity for patchy dense fog and some quick temperature drops in areas that can find some clear skies. Generally low temperatures look to be in the low to mid 40s across the area with some upper 30s north of the mountains.

The 500mb ridge axis inches ever closer, but models suggest the offshore upper low keeps the pattern pretty blocked up for Saturday. Expect clouds to increase through the day as we see warm moist advection from the southwest. BUFKIT profiles suggest another well mixed day so the clouds shouldn't keep us from once again climbing into the 60s across most of the area, with the coast once again topping out in the 50s due to the seabreeze.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
An upper level ridge this weekend is replaced by an upper level trough to start next week, with rainy and cool weather eventually yielding to a drier, warmer couple of days to start the upcoming work week. Another frontal system approaches with increasing rain chances around the middle or latter part of next week. All in all neither of these systems look to be particularly impactful in terms of a significant hydrological or convective threat, and overall this will be a stretch of typical Spring weather with an active but ultimately benign pattern.

Starting Saturday night... high pressure along the eastern periphery of Maritime Canada and a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes continue to produce onshore flow into New England. Clouds will fill in through the low and mid-levels especially south and east of the mountains into Sunday, with potential for fog and perhaps some patchy drizzle development during the morning as an upper level ridge rolls overhead.
Shower chances meanwhile will increase from the west through the day Sunday amid pressure and height falls... culminating in a likely period of rain as a pre-frontal trough crosses Sunday afternoon and/or evening. Although the cold front itself won't cross until Monday, the moisture axis will be attached to the pre-frontal feature... with generally 0.2-0.4" of rainfall.
Temperatures meanwhile won't warm too much on Sunday thanks to warm advection atop the cool marine layer, with highs generally in the 50s... coolest in the 40s along the coast.

In terms of sensible weather conditions, a question will be the progression of the cold front itself as its passage will bring fresh westerly flow. There will be a gap between the bulk of the rain/deep moisture exiting late Sunday and the low-level humidity being flushed out with the cold front on Monday. Thus, would expect the overnight to remain a bit damp with fog and drizzle potential.

Current model consensus mixes this out through the mid- or late- morning hours, with a mix of sun and clouds and far warmer temperatures on Monday. Highs are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s, coolest in the north where upsloping clouds and a few showers are expected to remain. Light winds and the warm temperatures should allow a sea breeze to develop. Upper level low pressure settles across Maritime Canada and a ridge axis nudges east toward New England. Resultant northwest flow reinforces the drier airmass with what looks to be a great day on Tuesday... featuring temperatures again warming into the 60s and 70s, light flow, an afternoon seabreeze, and what will likely be partly or mostly sunny skies.

Forecasting the upper air pattern becomes a bit fuzzy toward the middle of next week with an increasingly blocked pattern and a general trend toward more zonal flow over the Northeast with the jet nearby or overhead. This introduces the potential for shortwaves moving through the jet to bring showers across the area... and indeed have PoP and cooler temperatures on the increase again toward the middle of the week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...A mixed bag of LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings early this morning will gradually improve to VFR as the day goes on. We will most likely return to areas of LIFR in fog tonight, but quickly improve back to VFR Saturday. Winds will be light and variable across the area.

Long Term...Periods of IFR are likely Sat night through Mon morning with light SE flow turning N thru Sun, then SW or W Mon.
Prolonged and more significant restrictions are most likely along the coast with low CIGs and some lowered VSBY... with all terminals expected to have at least a few hours of restrictions with -RA crossing the area on Sunday. Conditions trend back to VFR Mon, except potentially MVFR CIGs in the north... then all VFR on Tue.

MARINE
Short Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are not expected. High pressure building over the waters will keep winds light and variable through tonight, with an afternoon seabreeze developing. For Saturday, winds will be blowing onshore at around 8-10 kts.

Long Term...SE flow across the waters Sat night increases to around 10-15 kts sustained by late Sun...with potential for fog and rain thru Mon morning. A front crossing the waters brings clearer conditions late Mon into Tue, with light winds generally out of the west (NW or SW) into midweek.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Camden
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Fri -- 12:45 AM EDT     1.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:56 AM EDT     9.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:23 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:41 PM EDT     9.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
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Camden, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

Owls Head
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Fri -- 12:41 AM EDT     1.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:52 AM EDT     9.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:19 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT     9.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
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Owls Head, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

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