Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Barre, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:07AMSunset 8:43PM Friday June 23, 2017 9:52 AM EDT (13:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:52AMMoonset 8:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barre, VT
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location: 44.2, -72.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 231142
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
742 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area today.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible with stronger showers and
storms. A cold front will move through the region tonight,
reducing the humidity and bringing a brief return to dry weather
on Saturday. More showers return early next week. Temperatures
will be near to a bit below their seasonal normals, with highs
in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s and low 60s.

Near term through Saturday
As of 733 am edt Friday... East west band of showers and
thunderstorms along and just north of warm frontal boundary.

Nearly 1.5 inches so far at kslk, and kbtv has topped an inch
overnight. Rain area slowly lifting north but area in the rain
now will continue through late morning. Have updated qpf,
loading rtma for past periods to bump up storm total qpf. 12-18z
blended in with btv4 and rap short term model QPF that are
matching radar trends this morning. Hrrr did about the best with
model reflectivity matching placement of precip, so blended it
in to forecast pops out to about 18z.

Previous discussion... Warm front analyzed running east-west
from southern shore of lake ontario and across southern
vermont. Area of showers and thunderstorms along and to the
north of the front, aided by area of 500mb PVA moving into the
region in west-southwest flow out of deepening trough to the
west. Main body of rainfall will lift north this morning through
12z following track of the vort center and on nose of low level
southwest jet of 30-40 knots. Expecting a lull after precip
lifts north, then daytime destabilization will renew chances for
convection through the day. With upper trough to west, and warm
front and shortwave trough moving north there isn't organized
forcing thinking is that showers and thunderstorms will have to
be all instability driven.

Thermodynamic profile continues to show very efficient rainfall
processes, with pwats near 2 inches, warm cloud depth over 12k
feet, and a tall skinny cape. Given southwest unidirectional
flow there is the potential for storms to train over the same
location and produce heavy rainfall rates.

Severe threat less straightforward, with parameters pointing
toward marginal risk from spc. Best 0-6km shear of 40-50 kts
lifts north this morning with the warm front and low level jet,
then settles down to 35-40 kts for the afternoon storms.

Likewise CAPE is a modest 1500 j kg based on MAX surface temp in
the low 80s. Kept gusty winds small hail in forecast, but feel
the biggest threat today is heavy rainfall.

For tonight a cold front moves northwest to southeast bringing
rain chances to an end from west to east. Saturday will be
mostly dry, however a chance for showers remains mainly in the
northern higher terrain with passage of a shortwave trough in
southwest flow as trough to the west deepens. Lows tonight
still in the 60s, then cooler air trickles in for Saturday with
highs in the 70s.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday
As of 430 am edt Friday... Any showers Saturday evening should
end before midnight as any convection will mainly be instability
driven. Dry weather is then expected during the overnight hours
Saturday night through much of the morning hours on Sunday.

Shortwave trough will move across the area Sunday afternoon and
enhance the potential for showers... Especially over the northern
half of the area. Lows Saturday night will be in the 50s to
around 60 with highs on Sunday in the 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 430 am edt Friday... Area remains under a broad upper
level trough of low pressure through about midweek. Shortwave
troughs moving through the large scale trough along with daytime
heating to destabilize the atmosphere will be enough to keep a
chance of showers going just about every day of the first half
of the week. The pattern will change as upper trough moves east
by Thursday and upper ridging builds in. Looking at drier
weather for the Thursday Friday time period along with a drying
trend.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Through 12z Saturday... Rain creating MVFR to ifr conditions for
most TAF terminals, except krut far enough south to be on the
fringe. As the rain area lifts slowly north through late morning
conditions to improve toVFR cigs. After the morning rain kept
vcsh for the rest of the day. Uncertainty remains for forcing of
afternoon convection, and until we're able to pinpoint locations
as storms fire vcsh will suffice. CIGS drop to ifr after 00z
with passage of cold front. South winds with gusts in the high
teens today turn southwest and west overnight with passage of
front.

Outlook...

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Sunday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Monday:VFR. Chance shra.

Monday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Hydrology
Storms will have high rainfall rates today, and training storms
moving over same location could produce isolated flash flooding.

Last rainfall event recharged streamflow across the region, and
additional rain during overnight hours saturating soils mainly
in northern ny and northern vt. With lack of organized forcing
mechanism for storms this afternoon heavy rainfall will be hit
or miss, and overall flood threat remains low. Storm total qpf
of around an 1"-1.25" expected over central and northern vt and
northern ny... With lesser amounts to the south. Larger rivers
and streams will see modest rises but remain within banks.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Hanson
near term... Hanson
short term... Evenson
long term... Evenson taber
aviation... Hanson
hydrology... Hanson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT4 mi62 minNNE 34.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist61°F61°F100%1010.1 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT24 mi59 minSSW 58.00 miLight Rain61°F60°F97%1008.9 hPa

Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW6W863W7SW863SW6SW3SW4S5S3SE3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmS3SE4NW3NE3
1 day agoW7W106
G15
W7W8
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W10
G19
W11W8NW8NW7NW5NW6NW6S4CalmCalmCalmS4--S3--CalmE3NW5
2 days ago6
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6W12
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SW7
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SW10SW8S6SW8SW8SW6SW7W9SW7SW8SW5SW5S6S10
G19
6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.