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FXUS61 KBTV 151923 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 323 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A stationary boundary overhead will remain in place through Thursday, resulting in some scattered showers and generally unsettled weather. The forecast trends drier for southern and eastern Vermont to close out the week, though better chances for showers continue further north and west through Saturday. Areawide conditions turn drier Sunday onward, with a pleasant end of the weekend and start to the week expected with a gradual warming trend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 128 PM EDT Wednesday...A weak surface boundary will remain stalled over our forecast area during the overnight hours and into Thursday. Marginal daytime instability has allowed some convective showers to pop up this afternoon north of the boundary, but expect shower coverage to wane after sunset with the loss of instability. Observed rainfall amounts within heavier showers/tstorms have ranged from 0.5 to 1.0 inch, which is below flash flood guidance and shouldn't pose any problems outside of some ponding in poor drainage areas.

Main forecast challenge tonight will be fog and low stratus, with only light flow and ample low-level moisture lingering around. Expect areas of mist and stratus, especially in areas of higher terrain. Best chances for dense fog will be in the climatologically favoured valley locations of eastern Vermont.

Little change in the overall setup for Thursday with weak stationary boundary remaining in place. However for Thursday upper-levels will be less favorable for lift as a narrow ridge noses in from the southwest. Thus, still looking at a few showers over our northern counties along the boundary, but less coverage and lighter intensities than what we saw today. Thunderstorm potential for Thursday looks quite low. Can't completely rule out an isolated storm, but forecast soundings showing shallow instability under the ridge which will limit thunder potential. Highs for Thursday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Showers will come to an end Thursday night and overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Atmospheric moisture will be on the increase throughout the day Friday ahead of a mid/upper level trough and associated shortwave with south-southeasterly surface flow Friday and Friday night.
However, rain showers are likely to hold off until Friday night, and 925mb temps are modeled in the 11-19 C range above 0. This will allow temperatures to soar into the 70s for most locations, with the potential for over achieving highs where breaks of sun occur. Dew points continue to look reasonable in the 50s for most, so conditions won't be too muggy.

Precipitation chances will increase Friday night, particularly for northern New York zones, though chances look to only be in the 20- 50% range as a cold front lifts north. Mostly cloudy skies will ensure temperatures remain mild with lows in the 50s for most.
Warmest temperatures will be in the wider valleys, coolest temperatures east of the Green Mountains. Showery weather could continue Saturday with precip chances up to 20-40%. There's also the potential for a rumble of thunder with model soundings showing tall, thin CAPE, especially across St. Lawrence County. Saturday will also be cooler with this precipitation expected, but still seasonable in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
We continue to trend towards drier weather this weekend under mainly zonal flow with some weak upper level ridging from time to time. We maintain slight chance precipitation, however, Saturday night into Tuesday in spots. With these dry conditions, temperatures will begin to warm again into the 70s for most through midweek. Precipitation chances return midweek for another trough system moving through.
Models are not in good agreement on timing at the moment.

AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18Z Thursday...Expect scattered coverage of showers to continue through 00Z as a weak front stalls overhead. Some showers may be briefly heavy in nature, with reductions to MVFR or brief IFR visibilities possible due to the moderate to heavy rain. Some isolated thunderstorms will also be embedded, especially over northern counties, but coverage will be to sparse to include at any given TAF site. Otherwise, showers wane in coverage after 00Z but MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail overnight as fog, mist, and low stratus develops. Expecting lowest visibilities (IFR) between 07Z and 11Z at KMPV, KEFK, and KSLK. Other sites are forecast to remain predominantly MVFR overnight. Some scattered showers will redevelop Thursday after 12Z, but coverage will not be as widespread as today. Ceilings will gradually lift toward VFR through 18Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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