Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stronach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 6:23PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 1:58 AM EST (06:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:51PMMoonset 8:30AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 412 Pm Est Fri Jan 25 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through Saturday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 2 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2019, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ849 Expires:201901260415;;919599 FZUS53 KGRR 252113 CCA NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast...corrected National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 412 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-260415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stronach, MI
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location: 44.23, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 200343
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1043 pm est Tue feb 19 2019

Update
Issued at 939 pm est Tue feb 19 2019
not much going on out there this evening. Shallow lake clouds
continue to stream into the straits region as low level flow backs
more southwest. No reports of any snow with these clouds, although
suppose a few flurries very light snow showers remain possible.

High clouds streaming in from the south, a harbinger of snows to
come on Wednesday. Still appears these snows will wait until after
sunrise to move into areas down near manistee and cadillac. Per
the usual, temperature trends remain problematic at best. Clear
skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to fall into the
single digits in some of our typical cold locations. Expect these
temperatures to eventually level off as high clouds increase
further overnight.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 345 pm est Tue feb 19 2019

Quiet weather tonight...

high impact weather potential: none... Through tonight.

Pattern synopsis forecast: short-wave ridge axis continues to build
into the western great lakes this afternoon, just to our west through
wisconsin and upstream from digging short-wave troughing through
the far eastern side of the rockies. Large expanse of surface high
pressure is slowly sliding off into the eastern great lakes with
sw low level flow becoming more established across northern michigan.

Quiet day across northern michigan for the most part. That said,
we have see a decent amount of lake and heating induced stratucu
develop and spread into parts of the CWA especially NW lower michigan
and periodic radar returns (flurries) as well as the occasional
-sn reported in surface obs.

Primary forecast concerns: minimal. Low temperatures tonight.

We will loose the daytime heating component to much of the cloud
cover flurries as we get into the evening leaving many locations
under mainly clear skies, although there will be increasing
high->mid cloud cover arriving from the south later overnight.

But with a more established SW flow that backs sse overnight and
shallow cold air, think we continue to see lake band generation on
lake michigan that spreads up the axis of the lake and continues
to bring some light snow showers flurries to a small portion of nw
lower and eastern upper michigan. Nothing big, just nuisance.

Otherwise, low temperatures tonight will be problematic. Intial
clear skies for a good part of the CWA will be competing with
increasing low level flow and eventual increasing high cloud
cover. It's not going to get as cold as last night. But I have
lowered inherited forecast lows some... Closer to the colder mav
mos guidance.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 345 pm est Tue feb 19 2019

More snow on the way for Wednesday...

high impact weather potential... Low to medium.

Primary forecast concerns... Snow accumulations Wednesday.

Low pressure moves across far northern michigan Wednesday into
Wednesday evening. This system is expected to bring light to perhaps
moderate amounts of snow (highest far north). Strong forcing in
evidence with this system but only modest amounts of moisture.

Generally, 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation expected across
eastern upper with 1 to 4 inches across northern lower (highest
north). There could even be a little freezing drizzle that mixes in
across southeast counties but only with a nuisance glaze of
accumulation expected. After collaboration with kmqt have gone ahead
and issued a winter weather advisory from 18z Wed to 06z Thu for
chippewa and mackinac counties which lines up with adjacent
counties. It turns marginally cold enough for light westerly flow
lake effect Thursday into Thursday evening. Little to no
accumulation is expected. High pressure at the surface and aloft
should then make for quiet weather Friday. Highs moderate from the
mid 20s to around 30 Wednesday to the low and mid 30s Thursday.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 345 pm est Tue feb 19 2019

Another storm this weekend...

high impact weather potential: potentially very high.

Extended models continue to be on board that there will be another
deepening area of low pressure moving through the great lakes this
weekend. In addition, extended models have trended farther northwest
and much stronger. The ECMWF and canadian have the low bombing out
to as low as about 975 mb... All the while 1035 to 1040 mb high
pressure sits across south central canada! This would result in a
tremendous pressure gradient across the region, especially Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night which could generate very gusty winds.

Lighter rain (possibly freezing) or snow Saturday into Saturday
night is expected to be followed by mainly rain Sunday morning.

Colder air (and increasingly gusty winds) then dives in behind the
departing system likely changing rain over to snow Sunday afternoon
(maybe even leading to a flash freeze). Am growing increasingly
concerned that very gusty winds will result in very low visibilities
from widespread blowing and drifting snow later Sunday into Sunday
night (possibly even blizzard conditions). Lake effect snow showers
likely to follow for early next week. Another low pressure system
could impact the region during the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.

I am amazed at how active the weather has been over the last month
and it looks like it will continue for a while longer!

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1042 pm est Tue feb 19 2019
weak low pressure will bring lowering CIGS from southwest to
northeast across northern michigan today. Light snow will
develop, likely bringing ifr conditions to all locations by later
this afternoon. Snow accumulation will be light, with totals
generally around one to two inches by later this evening. Winds
become a bit gusty out of the east to southeast today, although
relatively low snow to liquid ratios should prevent much blowing
snow.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 1 am est Thursday
for miz008-015.

Update... mb
near term... Ba
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi59 min ESE 5.1 G 8 23°F 13°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI4 mi63 minSE 410.00 miFair20°F15°F81%1031.5 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi64 minESE 310.00 miFair22°F14°F74%1029.1 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4E4E4E3E4E5E3S6SW6S5W10W8W9S6S4SW5S3SE3CalmE3E3SE3SE4
1 day agoNE8NE8N5N4NE5N4NE7E3--NE11
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2 days agoE11E6E5E4E4NE9NE9NE11NE7NE8NE6NE8E12E9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.