Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stronach, MI

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Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:44PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:37 AM EDT (04:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 952 Pm Edt Fri Aug 17 2018
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Patchy fog until midday. A slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots veering east 5 to 10 knots toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southwest, then veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ849 Expires:201808180915;;230456 FZUS53 KGRR 180152 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 952 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-180915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stronach, MI
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location: 44.23, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 180350
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1150 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018

Update
Issued at 957 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018
last of the diurnal convection (near and S of W branch) has faded
out over the last hour. Maybe a small shower can still fire for
another hour or so, but otherwise we are mostly done with precip
for the night. Most recent rap run does pop a few showers over
saginaw bay toward morning, perhaps due to converging land
breezes. This does not require a mention of shower, at least over
land.

Have expanded the mention of fog across all of northern mi
overnight. Airmass remains plenty soupy (especially in northern
lower), and cloud cover is exiting east (though we might have
enough smoke overhead to inhibit cooling to some degree).

No big changes to temps.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 340 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018

Showers and thunderstorms into the evening...

high impact weather potential: thunderstorms through early evening.

Mostly non-severe, although a stronger storm updraft could produce
hail... Along with heavy rain.

Pattern synopsis forecast: slow moving closed low is over
chicago southern lake michigan, associated broad surface low
pressure is across far southern ontario. Showers and some
thunderstorms with this system continue across central lower
michigan back into wisconsin within the associated deformation
axis, just skirting our far southern counties.

Further north, lots of mid high cloud cover has spread up into
northern lower michigan, mainly south of m-32. SPC mesoanalysis
reveals in excess of 500 j kg MLCAPE across the southern counties.

Some convection is now developing along the differential heating
boundary that bisects northern lower mi currently. Strongest
updrafts so far (supporting some elevated hail cores in the last
hour) have been (of all places) in benzie manistee counties,
where the intersection of the lake michigan marine boundary has
helped.

Tonight: closed mid-level circulation over the chicago area still
expected to open up and advance through lower michigan through
this evening. Band of showers thunder associated with attending
deformation axis will largely stay to our south, clipping the
gladwin arenac counties area.

Meanwhile to the north, as noted, convection has started along
the differential heating boundary that bisects northern lower
michigan and will likely continue to percolate meander across
northern lower michigan over the next few hours before diminishing
this evening. Always tough to know exactly how convection will
ultimately unfold. But I suspect the bulk of showers storms will
tend to contract inland and south over the next few hours.

Severe weather potential: relatively light winds aloft, minimal
ambient shear, and higher freezing levels suggest a low severe
storm threat. But, as we've seen, strongest updrafts can support
marginally severe hail. And, slow moving back building updrafts
will result in localized heavy rain. Will mention those in the
hwo.

Short term (Saturday through Monday)
issued at 340 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018
Saturday through Sunday

Despite the small rain chances Saturday the next round of dryness
begins...

high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms, but nothing severe
expected.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Models then begin to show another
"wiggle" in the 500 mb height fields for rain to be possible, but it
looks a lot less impressive than today's convection, and yesterday's
convection. Things diminish quickly by the evening and dry out
overnight. On Sunday, the high is built into the region, drying out
the state. The high continues over the region through the night.

Primary forecast concerns... Again is the thunder potential on
Saturday, most of the models are pegging the area near m-55 and i-75
as where the convection would occur. While the consensus is in that
area, the ECMWF and the GFS have a broader coverage to the
convection Saturday. So, there is a lower chance that it will be
over portions of N lower.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 340 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018

Rain on Monday night Tuesday then pretty much dry through
Friday...

extended (Monday through Friday)... The ridge breaks down Monday,
allowing a cold front and the 500 mb low trough to move into the
region. It looks like thunder will be possible as the cold front
moves into the area Monday night Tuesday morning. Then the models
show a decent band of rain on the north side of the sfc low in a
deformation zone producing some rain, possibly heavy at times, as
the system move NE through the state. Will continue the cautious
optimism as the models are holding onto this feature, but details
are still a little less certain. As the GEFS plumes show the mean
over glr just under 0.5", but the GFS model, itself showing 1.4" and
is the furtherest outlier. However, the latest ECMWF is also showing
over an 1" of rain in gaylord, as well. So it looks like a good
soaker, but not sure about the heavy amounts that the deterministic
models are trying to produce. Wednesday through Thursday are dry,
then scattered rain on Friday so low chance pops there.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1150 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018
some fog again overnight, otherwiseVFR.

Still expecting some fog overnight, with similar conditions to
last night progged (ifr at times pln, MVFR mbl apn, no issues at
tvc). Airmass remains muggy, and though some smoke aloft will
limit cooling, ground fog is still expected. Additional showers
storms will fire Saturday afternoon in some interior sections of
northern lower mi, but these should be inland from all of the taf
sites.

Light northerly breezes.

Marine
Issued at 340 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018
lighter winds and waves will continue to dominate over the next
few days. No marine headlines anticipated.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... Ba
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 18 mi58 min NNE 12 G 19 74°F 1016.6 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi38 min NE 1 G 5.1 71°F 64°F
45024 23 mi28 min N 12 G 16 75°F 76°F2 ft1016.4 hPa68°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI4 mi42 minNNE 310.00 miFair69°F64°F84%1017 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair68°F64°F90%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmNE4NE34W5NW12NW10NW4NW8N7NW5NW6N4N3NE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmE4E4Calm3CalmNW8NW10NW8NW8N7NW5N3CalmNE4CalmCalm
2 days agoE3E4E3CalmCalmE3E3E3CalmCalmW4W656W9W9SW7NW6NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.