Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stronach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 9:09PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 10:37 PM EDT (02:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:08PMMoonset 7:27AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 15 knots veering southwest after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..West winds around 10 knots veering northeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ849 Expires:201905220900;;252395 FZUS53 KGRR 220206 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Tue May 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-220900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stronach, MI
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location: 44.23, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 220113
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
913 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Update
Issued at 913 pm edt Tue may 21 2019
powerful low pressure remains centered over kansas late this
evening... With the associated warm front extending eastward thru
central missouri to just south of the ohio valley. Line of severe
storms continues to impact the mid mississippi valley... Producing
a variety of severe wx as well as flooding. Closer to home... Mid
and high clouds continue to increase across our CWA along the far
ne periphery of the moisture shield associated with this system.

Closest precip that is actually reaching the ground is still well
west of our area over western wisconsin where some showers are
occurring. Near term models are still keeping any precip chances
at bay until 06z. Chances of rain will steadily increase from sw
to NE across much of our CWA between 06z and 12z. Going forecast
is in line with latest model and observed data... So no major
changes needed at this time. Still do not expect any chance of
thunder overnight due to lack of instability.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 320 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Increasing clouds and shower chances...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

Primary forecast concerns... Timing of shower chances.

High pressure over the region at the moment will exit off to our
tonight. Attention will then turn to an upper level trough tracking
out of the central plains. This system will lead to downstream
isentropic ascent (i-310k) warm advection across northern michigan.

Rain showers will likely overspread the region later tonight from
southwest to northeast. Rainfall amounts will be rather light with
generally a tenth of an inch or less. Lows ranging from the lower
40s across eastern upper to the upper 40s southwest.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 320 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Shower chances return...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis: all eyes centered on impressive trough (especially
for later may) rotating into the central plains. Tremendous gulf of
mexico moisture influx and simple breadth of dynamics more than
verified by ongoing severe weather and extensive flooding across
large portions of missouri, kansas, and oklahoma. With that said,
system has reached maturity, and expect all phases of it to
gradually weaken as it pivots northeast across the upper mississippi
valley region Wednesday. Attendant warm front and decaying northward
surging moisture channel brings renewed rain chances across our area
later tonight and Wednesday, with passage of actual mid level
wave surface low and its attached cold front continuing the light
shower chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Western CONUS remains
energy filled thereafter, sending its next wave and more shower
chances into our area by the end of the work week.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperature trends and
addressing both spatial and temporal resolution of showers.

Details: isentropically driven showers expected to be spreading
southwest to northeast across the area Wednesday morning. As
mentioned earlier, despite very impressive rain occurring with this
system now, expect nothing like it this far north as moisture surge
decays and overall forcing stretches out weakens with time. Actual
band of showers looks to be a narrow one, and expect much of the
area to dry out during the afternoon. Arrival of main mid level wave
and passage of cold front to continue at least some shower threat
Wednesday night into Thursday (especially during the morning). Would
like to stress forecast will unfortunately look much wetter than it
will actually be, with much of Wednesday night into Thursday
remaining dry (very possible some areas see little precipitation at
all). Clouds and showers will keep temperatures down a bit on
Wednesday. Thursday's highs will be highly predicated on timing of
cold frontal passage. Trends continue to support highs in the 70s
across a good portion of northern lower michigan. We shall see.

Break in the active weather expected later Thursday into Thursday
night, with that arrival of that next wave returning the rain
concerns heading into Friday (timing subject to change of course).

Signals point to a respectable moisture surge with both a pacific
and western gulf of mexico moisture plume advecting north. Still
significant question on where best deep layer dynamics will pass.

Still some hints of thunder potential as instability and mid level
jet dynamics increase. Plenty of time to monitor this potential in
the next few days.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 320 pm edt Tue may 21 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal
shower and potential thunderstorm threat continues Friday night,
with relatively quiet conditions expected thereafter through the
holiday weekend. Can't completely rule out a few light showers at
times through memorial day, although trends definitely support
anything but a washout. Temperatures also look fairly seasonal,
perhaps trending a bit cooler on Monday. Guidance consensus blend
approach returns more bonafide rain concerns on Tuesday as the next
western wave arrives. Plenty of time for that to change.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 705 pm edt Tue may 21 2019
a warm front will lift into michigan over the next 24 hours...

producing a good chance of showers across all of northern lower
michigan later tonight into Wednesday. Overall conditions will
remainVFR despite increasing chances of showers. Llws will
develop late tonight... Mainly across NW lower michigan
(pln tvc mbl). Surface winds will remain from the SE AOB 10 kts
tonight and will then strengthen to 15 to 25 kts with higher gust
on Wednesday.

Marine
Issued at 320 pm edt Tue may 21 2019
high pressure will move off to the east. As a result southeast winds
will increase later tonight into Tuesday afternoon. Small craft
advisories will be needed across much of the marine nearshore areas
during that time. After lighter winds Wednesday night, winds will
pick up once again Thursday with small craft advisory gusts
possible. Meanwhile, there will be a few showers that move
through the area later tonight into Wednesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... mb
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Mr
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 18 mi58 min ESE 8.9 G 12 61°F 1019 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi44 min E 6 G 8 60°F 33°F
45024 23 mi28 min E 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 41°F1 ft1018.4 hPa38°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI4 mi42 minE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F35°F41%1018.7 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi42 minE 710.00 miOvercast59°F33°F37%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.