Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stronach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 5:18PM Monday November 19, 2018 6:40 PM EST (23:40 UTC) Moonrise 3:49PMMoonset 3:27AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 351 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..North winds to 30 knots. Rain and snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing west 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds to 30 knots veering northwest 20 to 25 knots toward daybreak. Rain and snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201811200415;;554451 FZUS53 KGRR 192051 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 351 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-200415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stronach, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.23, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 192332
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
632 pm est Mon nov 19 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 330 pm est Mon nov 19 2018

Colder drier air arrives tonight...

high impact weather potential: minimal. Transition to northerly
flow lake effect snow showers behind arctic cold front.

Pattern synopsis forecast: short-wave impulse and associated upper
divergence bullseye is now sliding across northern michigan with
a broad area of light snowfall working through the eastern half of
the cwa. Attending surface low is over the tip of the mitt ne
lower michigan with a wavy front through the m-68 corridor and
arcing back down through lake michigan. Some very cold although
very dry air is poised north of the front across ontario which
will overspread the region overnight into Tuesday.

Meanwhile, along the arctic front, better lake enhancement has
finally materialized and is now wrapping back down through emmet,
cheboygan and charlevoix counties, some of the best snows of the
day. Also of note, a nice mesoscale low has formed over northern
lake michigan within the sharp low level trough and is now making
it's way onshore into the grand traverse bay region... Likely
aiding the enhancement.

Primary forecast concerns: ongoing headlines and transition to
northerly flow lake effect snows.

Short-wave and attending surface low will advance out of northern
lower michigan over the next several hours while attending cold
front gets pulled down through northern lower michigan by early-
mid evening. We may yet get a final push of transient heavier
snowfall that drops down through northern lower mi with the front
bringing some "last minute" accumulating snow.

For the advisory area itself, I was all set to cancel it ahead of
schedule given the lackluster snow accumulations thus far. But as
mentioned some of the best enhancement of the day is now ongoing,
and just in time for the beginning of the afternoon commute. So
i'll probably just let it ride until the heavier snows drop down
on through.

Quick transition to northerly flow lake snow showers takes shape
this evening with colder but much drier air overspreading the
region through the night. There will be a window of time through
this evening where better larger scale moisture weak or neutral
qg-forcing for ascent will lead to some decent lake effect snow
showers in and around the grand traverse bay region before
diminishing overnight as strong subsidence and much drier air work
into the region. With that in mind, I have beefed up snow
accumulations a bit in and around the grand traverse bay region.

Short term (Tuesday through Thursday)
issued at 330 pm est Mon nov 19 2018
high impact weather potential: mainly light accumulations of snow
expected Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night across eastern
upper and northwest lower.

Pattern synopsis forecast: broad troughing continues aloft across
the great lakes through the middle of the week before heights begin
to rise thanksgiving day. Weak surface ridging overhead during the
day Tuesday will quickly get ushered by a developing clipper system
set to drop southeast across the northern great lakes Tuesday night.

A strong area of canadian high pressure will then settle atop the
region by Wednesday afternoon through the end of the forecast period
on Thursday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops and snow amounts through
the forecast period.

Cold h8 temperatures aloft (~ -16 c) to start the day Tuesday will
promote north-northwesterly flow lake induced snow showers downwind
of lake superior and lake michigan; however, as the aforementioned
surface ridge slides overhead, low-level winds will gradually back
more westerly and eventually west-southwesterly Tuesday afternoon.

This will shift any lingering light snow showers to the typical west
flow lake belts near the m-32 corridor, although any accumulation
through the day is expected to be minimal. Deeper moisture begins to
arrive from the northwest by early evening in advance of an
approaching clipper system, set to trek from northern lake superior
Tuesday evening to eastern lake huron by Wednesday morning. Lake
enhanced snowfall will be the primary concern with this system given
a sufficient delta t environment, although a cold front crossing the
region will certainly bring synoptic support with it as well. As was
alluded to be the prior forecaster, lake aggregate troughing off of
superior is expected to result in a more impressive area of low-
level convergence across portions of eastern upper than along the
northwest lower shoreline. Model forecast soundings suggest initial
inversion heights in the 9-10 kft range gradually fall throughout
Tuesday night, along with moisture stripping away to the east behind
the departing wave aloft. Expected snow accumulation from this event
across eastern upper and northwest lower continue to look on the
order of 1-3 inches, highest across the tip of the mitt... Lesser
amounts under an inch east of i-75 south of m-32.

Strong cold air advection behind the departing system during the day
Wednesday will likely be sufficient enough to continue light
northerly flow lake effect snow showers; however, minimal
accumulation and associated impacts are expected at this time.

During the day Thursday, warm air advection will gradually take over
aiding to gradually boost temperatures aloft and putting an end to
any lingering light lake induced snow showers flurries.

Temperatures remaining below normal through the forecast period with
highs ranging from the low-upper 20s across the forecast
area... Coldest on Wednesday as many areas struggle to reach the mid
20s. Overnight lows certainly chilly as well with the coldest temps
expected Wednesday night... Ranging from single digits across many
areas to the mid-teens nearest the great lakes shorelines.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 330 pm est Mon nov 19 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Brief mid-level ridging will drift overhead giving a boost to
temperatures late this week. However, troughing redeveloping
upstream will aid in bringing another system across the region
Friday night into Saturday. Given the moderating thermal profile
through this time, rain looks to be the predominant precip-type
before cooler temperatures and more snow chances return for the
following week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 632 pm est Mon nov 19 2018
improving conditions tonight.

Low pressure is departing across lake huron. Last vestiges of snow
and mixed precip will move southward across the area this evening.

Developing northerly winds will bring chilly but dry air
southward, resulting in only light lake effect snow showers
overnight and otherwise improving vsbys cigs. Low-endVFR
conditions should persist for most of Tuesday.

Northerly winds will be gusty at times tonight, then become
lighter while backing toward the west Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 330 pm est Mon nov 19 2018
behind departing low pressure, gustier northerly winds develop
tonight leading to small craft advisory conditions on lake
michigan and huron. Winds will decrease late tonight through a
good part of Tuesday. But, stronger winds arrive once again later
Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday. Expect marine headlines to
continue.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz016-
017-019.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Tuesday for lhz347>349.

Gale watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for
lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Wednesday for lmz323-342-
344>346.

Small craft advisory from 5 am Tuesday to 6 pm est Wednesday for
lmz341.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 18 mi60 min NNW 9.9 G 13 31°F 1017.3 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi40 min NNW 1.9 G 5.1 31°F 23°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last
24hr
W9
G14
W9
G14
W9
G13
W8
G12
W8
G11
W8
G12
SW6
G12
W8
G13
W6
SW3
G7
W7
G11
W10
G13
SW6
G14
W7
G12
SW6
G9
SW6
G11
W8
G11
W10
G13
W6
G11
NW6
G10
NW6
NW3
N4
G7
NW2
G5
1 day
ago
NE2
G6
E4
E3
E3
E3
E2
E3
E3
SE3
E3
E3
NE1
NE1
NE1
W7
G10
W6
W10
W10
G13
W6
G11
SW5
G11
W6
G10
SW5
G13
W5
G8
W10
G14
2 days
ago
W8
G16
NW10
G14
W8
G13
NW6
G12
W6
G9
NW6
G10
N7
G12
NW4
G8
NW8
G13
NW5
G9
N5
G9
N4
G8
N3
G7
N7
N4
G10
N5
G9
N6
G10
NW4
G9
N6
G9
NW7
G12
N5
G8
N5
G8
NE3
G6
N5

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI4 mi44 minN 010.00 miOvercast30°F26°F85%1018.4 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi45 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast31°F25°F78%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last 24hrS4CalmSW5SE3E3E3CalmE3E3E4E3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmW8W10NW9NW7NW6--CalmCalm
1 day agoE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmSE3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmW7W10W10W9W8W9SW8SW6
G14
SW5S4
2 days agoW14
G19
NW12W10W11N11
G16
NW11
G16
NW10NW8NW10NW9NW6NW9NW6NW6NW6NW6N5N5NW74N4
G14
N4N4NE3

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.