Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southwest Harbor, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:11PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:46 PM EST (19:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:29AMMoonset 10:10PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 1111 Am Est Mon Feb 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers through the night. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ005 1111 Am Est Mon Feb 19 2018
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pres will move E of the waters today. Low pres will track nw of the waters later Tue into Wed bringing a cold front across the waters Wed night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southwest Harbor, ME
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location: 44.24, -68.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 191612
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1112 am est Mon feb 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will move to the east on today. A frontal
boundary will form across the region tonight into Tuesday as
warm high pressure remains to our southeast and cold high
pressure builds to our north.

Near term through tonight
11:15 am update... Sky cover was modified to make central and
western areas mostly sunny with downeast and far northern areas
partly to mostly cloudy. Also, midday temps were raised as the
inversion is breaking and low levels are quickly warming.

Previous discussion...

high pressure off the new england coast early this morning will
retreat east today with a milder southwest return flow. Clouds in
the north will give way to a partly sunny sky by midday with an
increase in clouds downeast this afternoon. Highs will range from
the mid to upper 30s north to low to mid 40s in the greater bangor
region and along the coast. Moisture will stream into the region
from the southwest tonight with some showers and drizzle along with
patchy fog. A cold front in quebec will sink ab out as far south as
caribou and clayton lake with some hints of colder air damming in
the far north and west. This will likely lead to the potential
of some snow, sleet, or freezing rain in the far north and
perhaps as far south as the central highlands. The precipitation
looks light and spotty, but can't rule out that a special
weather statement or advisory might not eventually be needed for
a time late tonight in the far north and into the central
highlands.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
The model guidance is in good agreement through the short term
period of the forecast. A warm front will be extended across the
region, it associated low over lake michigan. A high pressure
ridge in place over quebec will slow the forward progression of
the warm front. The low will track northeast into quebec
Wednesday morning, then into eastern quebec by Wednesday
evening. The cold front will move into north and western maine
Wednesday morning then into the gulf of maine by the end of the
period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS nam ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Used nawave4 for seas in the coastal
waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool add to winds 20% over
land, 26% for the coastal waters. Used HPC guidance for qpf.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The extended models are in good agreement at the start of the period.

High pressure will dominate the weather through Friday
afternoon. A warm front will move into western maine Friday
evening, clearing the area early Saturday morning. Another low
and associated frontal system will move into maine Sunday
evening, the surface low will track through northern maine
Monday morning, the upper level low will remain over the state
through the end of the period.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models.

Used nawave4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by
factor tool add to winds 20% over land, 26% for the coastal
waters. Used HPC guidance for qpf.

Aviation 16z Monday through Friday
Near term:VFR today with conditions to lower to ifr tonight in
showers, drizzle, and patchy fog. A mix of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain expected at the northern terminals from khul to
kfve. Amounts are expected to be light, but icing will be a
concern.

Short term: ifr to lMVFR conditions through Wednesday
afternoon. Wednesday evening the cold front will sweep into the
gulf of maine and higher pressure will build into the area.

Clearing skies Wednesday evening. Clear to partly cloudy
conditions Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon. Another
frontal system will move into Friday evening, conditions falling
to ifr around midnight Friday night.

Marine
Near term: a small craft advisory is in effect from late this
morning through tonight as southwest flow increases.

Short term: a small craft advisory may be required Wednesday
morning through Wednesday afternoon for winds and seas above
criteria as a cold front moves through the waters.

Hydrology
High temperatures Wednesday will be near 60 degrees in
bangor with 45 to 50 degree highs all the way north to the saint
john valley. Snow melt will likely lead to ponding of water.

Some ice movement is possible, mainly in the penobscot basin.

Climate
N. Amer. Arctic potential and impact over NRN and ERN me...

it's interesting to note that tdy is the last day of ami values
near 100 (pristine arctic air mass rating) ovr far NRN manitoba
prov can with respective naai and ndaai values of 40% 30%, with
the areal cvrg and core values of this air mass xpctd to modify
as it lifts ene into NRN qb and then off the NRN labrador coast
ovr the next 1-2 days. Overall nat values will cont arnd +0.5
durg this tm then begin to gradually modify to negative values
by next week. Although the overall initial nat value is around
+0.5, substantial differences exist between natw and nate index
(indices derived from source rgn sectorized ao and ptns of the
tnh and ep-np teleconnection patterns, respectfully) with natw
around +2 and nate -1 both accompanying a strong pna- pattern.

Overall modification of arctic residency ovr NRN n. Amer. By
next week will occur as tnh and ao nao all chg signs from
positive to negative and pna becomes more neutral, resulting in
long fetch mid-trop erly anomalous flow from the far N atlc to
overtake much of the nae and even ERN ptns of the naw source
rgns.

The ovrall affect for nrn ERN me will be after several
rn... Mixed precip and sn events this week, drier conditions
may arrive by next week with any arctic air mass intrusions
of only low to mdt residence and relatively brief occurrences
(http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 13 mi46 min WSW 8.9 G 20 42°F 36°F1030.1 hPa (-4.1)
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 22 mi46 min S 26 G 29 43°F 1030.5 hPa (-3.9)34°F
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 37 mi102 min SSW 16 G 19 39°F 37°F4 ft1030.5 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 41 mi46 min S 27 G 31 42°F 1029.5 hPa (-4.1)35°F

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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G26
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NE4
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N16
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NW11
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G34
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N9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME15 mi50 minSSW 20 G 2310.00 miFair and Breezy41°F32°F70%1030.2 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW95CalmCalmW4W3W3SW3W3W4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmS12S13S17
G23
S20
G23
1 day agoS4SW5SW7S11S7S7S5SE5S10S8S7--SE73E4CalmNW3NW4N7
G16
N9
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G19
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2 days agoN5NW3W3NW5NW8
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N9
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NW7NW6W8
G15
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G16
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G14
NW9N7NE6N6

Tide / Current Tables for Bass Harbor, Mount Desert Island, Maine
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Bass Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:43 AM EST     10.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:20 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:26 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:59 PM EST     10.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:42 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:10 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1010.39.16.841.60.40.51.73.76.28.51010.59.87.74.82.10.400.92.75.17.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mackerel Cove, Maine
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Mackerel Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:39 AM EST     10.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:49 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:53 PM EST     10.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:11 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:10 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1010.29.37.34.82.20.50.1135.68.310.110.69.98.15.62.90.8-0.20.31.94.47.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.