Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Blue Hill, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 6:49PM Thursday March 21, 2019 7:30 AM EDT (11:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:40PMMoonset 7:17AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 648 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.gale watch in effect from Friday morning through Friday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain and snow likely, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 1 foot or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ005 648 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Low pres currently developing along the carolina coast will track north into the gulf of maine on Fri, then move ne into the canadian maritimes over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blue Hill, ME
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location: 44.24, -68.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 211054
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
654 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will develop off the carolina coast this morning
will track north toward our region on Friday and then move
across the canadian maritimes later Fri night into Saturday.

Near term through tonight
655 am update...

quick update to bring temps more in line with reality. All else
looks to be on track.

Prev discussion blo...

low pressure is developing off of the nc coast this morning. Expect
this wl begin to intensify as S WV energy mvg thru the tn vly
phases with WV dropping thru the midwest this mrng. At the same
time the WV currently located ovr NRN manitoba dives into the
great lks. Trof amplification wl result in S WV ridging ovr cwa
tda thus delaying pops until aft 00z.

Pcpn wl begin to mv into WRN zones later this evng and increase ovr
entire area by daybreak. Blyr temps look to be warm enuf initially
this evng for lgt rain ovr NRN and WRN areas for the first hour or
two bfr cooling enuf to chg ovr to snow with light snow continuing
until 12z. Initially looking at 1-2 inches thru daybreak fri, mainly
north of the katahdin region.

Blyr temps are warm enuf along the downeast coast to start pcpn off
as light rain. Interior downeast and the bangor region rmn in
question for very late tonight with LLJ strengthening to 40-50kts
btwn 10z-12z and drawing in significant warm temps aloft. This may
allow mixed pcpn to affect the region thru the end of the pd,
whether it be sleet or frzg rain. Sfc temps wl hover right arnd frzg
btwn 09z-12z in these areas.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Models have finally come into good agreement on the evolution of
the system. Strong low pressure center moves northeast along
the maine coast or just inland Friday afternoon and evening,
then stalls out near the maine new brunswick border overnight
Friday into early Saturday as it matures and becomes vertically
stacked underneath an upper level low over the state. The low
then exits east into the canadian maritimes as the potent upper
level low moves east as well.

Main challenge with the system will be precipitation types and
timing, but as mentioned above, confidence is much better than
24 hours ago. Friday morning, the transition line from from
snow to sleet and freezing rain to rain moves north, with most
areas except perhaps the north woods becoming plain rain by
early afternoon. After the changeover to plain rain, the rain
will be heavy at times Friday day especially from the central
highlands south into downeast. As the low moves overhead,
lighter precipitation or perhaps even a break in the
precipitation can be expected for Friday evening. Late Friday
night into Saturday morning, the low begins to kick off to the
east and cooler air and steadier precipitation filters in from
west to east, with rain changing back to a wet snow with a few
additional inches, mainly in the north. Decent wind on Saturday
as the cooler air moves in. Think that the snow will be too wet
for blowing snow issues. Snow ends late Saturday into Saturday
night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Arctic front moves into far northern maine late Sunday and moves
through the area Sunday night into Monday. Some models have a
wave riding along the arctic front bringing moderate snow
Monday into Monday evening. In particular, the GFS and its
ensembles are bullish on this idea. However, many other models
keep this system well south of us. To be safe included just a
chance of precipitation on Monday. Turning cooler Monday night
and Tuesday regardless as the arctic air continues to filter
in.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Near term:VFR across most terminals until after 06z tonight.

Ifr -sn moves into northern terminals between 06z and 09z.

Rain snow mix moves into bgr after 07z producing ifr vsbys. At
bhb ifr CIGS move in after 09z in light rain.

Short term: widespread ifr or worse conditions Friday through
early Saturday with wintry precipitation and breezy to windy
conditions. Improving toVFR by late Saturday but remaining
breezy into Sunday.

Marine
Near term: winds and seas will remain below SCA through today
and most of tonight. Seas will increase toward daybreak with
serly swell moving in ahead of developing coastal low. Winds
will increase abv SCA after 06z and possibly approach gales by
12z Friday.

Short term: marginal gales possible Friday morning just ahead of
an incoming low pressure system. Seas to around 10 feet
expected Friday into Saturday. Conditions won't improve to below
small craft levels until late Sunday.

Hydrology
The combined amount of rainfall and snowmelt should be enough
to lift ice and generate ice movement and ice jam potential in
the southern half of the forecast area, particularly the
piscataquis and penobscot river basins. River rises are progged
at 3 to 5 feet which should be sufficient to break up some ice.

Widespread river flooding is not expected... Just localized
issues due to any ice jams as rivers begin flowing.

Further north, existing snowpack will absorb the rainfall
without many issues, although we can't rule out localized ice
movement.

Along the coast, high astronomical tides and storm
surge at Friday's midday high tide seems likely to cause minor
issues at some of the usual trouble spots such as the deer isle
causeway, seawall road, and machias. There is some potential for
minor issues with Friday night's high tide as well.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
anz050>052.

Near term... Farrar
short term... Foisy
long term... Foisy
aviation... Farrar foisy
marine... Farrar foisy
hydrology... Foisy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 22 mi36 min 39°F 34°F1023.9 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 26 mi86 min SW 14 G 18 38°F 35°F3 ft1023.3 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 26 mi86 min SSW 16 G 18 38°F 37°F4 ft1024.2 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 30 mi30 min S 20 G 21 38°F 1024.4 hPa (-0.5)
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 35 mi30 min SSW 16 G 17 38°F 1024 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME18 mi34 minSSW 810.00 miFair34°F32°F92%1024.5 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S6--S11S14S17S14S16S14S12S8S8SW7S5SW3S4S4CalmSW6S8S7S6SW8
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NW106W7W4W3CalmCalmW4NW3CalmCalmW4NW4W4CalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Naskeag Harbor, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Naskeag Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:35 AM EDT     -1.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:49 AM EDT     12.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:03 PM EDT     -1.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.910.27.23.60.5-1.3-1.50.13.16.810.112.212.711.68.95.31.7-0.9-1.9-1.11.44.98.511.2

Tide / Current Tables for Sedgwick, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Sedgwick
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     -1.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:54 AM EDT     12.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:11 PM EDT     -1.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1210.47.640.8-1.2-1.6-0.22.76.49.812.112.711.89.25.72.1-0.6-1.8-1.314.58.111

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.