Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 7:37PM Monday September 25, 2017 8:20 PM EDT (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:56AMMoonset 9:56PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 351 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots veering northwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers overnight. Waves around 1 foot building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201709260315;;922747 FZUS53 KGRR 251951 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 351 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-260315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 252333
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
733 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Still hot Tuesday...

high pressure will hold on for a little bit longer across northern
michigan bringing more unseasonably warm conditions through
Tuesday. Perhaps some patchy fog out there again tonight,
otherwise mostly clear skies expected. More record high
temperatures will likely be broken or challenged
Tuesday... Especially at glr, tvc and pln. An approaching cold
front will result in low end shower or thunderstorm chances later
Tuesday afternoon across far western sections of the forecast area
(though there isn't a lot of CAPE to work with per model
soundings). Lows tonight in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs
Tuesday ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Snapping back to autumn reality...

high impact weather potential... Slight chance of a thunderstorm or
two Tuesday evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Flattening upper ridge quickly erodes as
it gets shunted east Tuesday evening. An open mid-level wave lifting
through ontario and a corresponding surface low tracking through
lake superior will push a potent cold front through northern
michigan Tuesday night. This front will usher in a sharply colder
airmass with temperatures running a good 20+ degrees cooler than the
current warm stretch (but near normal for late september). Broad
upper troughing will then remain overhead through Thursday, despite
a surface ridge nosing into northern michigan from Wednesday through
Thursday morning.

Primary forecast concerns... Chance for a bit of much needed rainfall
for some locations Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Still looking like a decent chance for a bit of rainfall with the
cold front's passage Tuesday night. However, not all of northern
michigan is expected to see scattered showers, and those that do
(mainly eastern upper and tip of the mitt) will likely not receive
much (less than a quarter inch). Models continue to show a ribbon of
higher pwats ahead of the front, but that is mainly tied to the
anomalous surface dewpoints initially in the lower 60s (but dropping
quickly behind the front). Forecast soundings actually reveal the
depth of moisture is not too great and doesn't last for more than a
few hours before the column begins drying out in the mid levels.

Forcing along the front and from the shortwave, though not
particularly strong, looks better supported near and north of the
straits. Very marginal instability along and ahead of the front,
perhaps enough to support just a few rumbles of thunder through
around midnight.

Perhaps a lingering shower or two over eastern upper Wednesday
morning, but otherwise clouds should gradually thin out, giving way
to partly sunny skies as high pressure ridge noses into the area.

Clouds will gradually increase on Thursday ahead of the next
shortwave and a reinforcing cold front dropping in from the
northwest. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers heading
into Thursday night.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017
as maria continues to lift off over the atlantic, the downstream
blockiness will wane allowing a much more progressive pattern over
the CONUS than we have seen the past few days. The troughing that
has been persistent over the western CONUS will begin working into
the region by mid-week and continue into the weekend. This will get
temperatures closer to normal levels, perhaps even a bit below
normal by Friday. H8 temperatures could be sufficiently cold enough
to drive some lake effect rain showers starting Thursday night and
through the day Friday. High pressure will again build into the
region over the weekend, with temperatures rising through the
weekend and into the beginning of next week when we could see some
areas nearing 70 degrees again, about 10 degrees above normal but
not to the extent we are currently experiencing.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 733 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017
overallVFR conditions continue across northern lower
michigan... Tonight through Tuesday. Likely to see some fog once
again later this evening and overnight... And likely to impact the
typical terminal sites (pln mbl).

On Tuesday...VFR weather continues. Cold front will finally make
inroads into the western great lakes through the day and cross
northern lower michigan Tuesday night. A few showers storms will
be possible late in the afternoon evening. But lowering CIGS (MVFR
and possible ifr) are likely Tuesday night... Beyond the current
taf forecast period.

Marine
Issued at 316 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Tuesday as
high pressure moves slowly off to our east. Chances of precip
will increase later Tuesday into Tuesday night as a cold front
sweeps across michigan. Northwest winds will increase late
Tuesday night into Wednesday behind the front with SCA gusts
possible on some nearshore zones.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... As
short term... Mk
long term... Am
aviation... Ba
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 1 mi101 min SSW 6 G 7 73°F 1014.2 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi41 min S 8 G 11 73°F 1014.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi51 min SSW 5.1 G 9.9 75°F 63°F
45024 23 mi31 min S 5.8 G 5.8 70°F 70°F1 ft1015.1 hPa68°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair71°F63°F76%1015.6 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair68°F61°F79%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3E4E3E5E7E4E3E4E4E4E3E5E5E4E3SW46SW7W8W8W7--W4
1 day agoCalmE3CalmE4E4NE3E3E3E4E4E4E4NE5--3CalmS6S66W7W9SW7SW8SW7
2 days ago--E4E4E4NE4CalmNE4E4E4E3E3E3NE4E3CalmS4SW6SW10SW96SW8SW8SW6SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.