Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM   Moonset 2:30 PM

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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Early this morning - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Waves 1 to 2 feet.Today - West winds 10 to 15 knots veering northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms until midday, then Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering southwest 10 to 15 knots, then veering northwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot. Saturday night - West winds around 10 knots veering northwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot. Sunday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots backing north. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Tuesday - Southeast winds around 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
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FXUS63 KAPX 030718 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 318 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers/maybe t-storms ending w to e today.

- Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Pattern/synopsis: 1003mb surface low pressure over far nw MN. A front arcs east and then south from the low, across western upper MI and on to central IN. The low heads ne toward southern Hudson Bay thru tonight, and the front will cross all of northern MI by early this afternoon.

Forecast: Showers have been expanding during the night. Most of the forecast area is seeing occasional showers. Lightning has mostly been in central and southern lower MI. May still be a window for a few rumbles, especially in n central and ne lower MI. But the clear main story today is the abrupt end of precip from w to e, as the front moves thru. Showers will end in far western areas by late morning, along I-75 by early afternoon, and along the ne lower MI coast by late afternoon. Substantial clearing begins only 1-2 hours after precip ends. Expect mostly clear skies across the area by sunset.

Max temps today in the 60s to around 70f, though cooler on the immediate coastlines.

For tonight, a weak ridge of high pressure extends into the area from the ne. Drier air intrusion and diurnally-induced vertical mixing today, will be substantial enough to limit fog/stratus potential in western areas tonight. That is less certain in the east, and especially near Lk Huron. Do have some fog and patchy low clouds possible east of I-75 overnight.

Min temps upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing and associated low pressure systems situated across North America will influence the sensible weather for the long term. Two separate low pressure systems located to the west of the CWA currently, will eventually track towards the Great Lakes Region and bring precipitation chances back for the weekend and mid next week.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend: A weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Along with this will be a slight decrease in daytime temperatures for Sunday, but this will be short-lived as we head into Monday. By Monday, as heights rise, quiet and warmer weather look to take hold for the first half of the work week. However, guidance continues to hint at more active/ wet weather returning to the region by mid next week with the potential for heavier showers and possible thunderstorms growing more likely- Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Still expect MVFR to IFR producing cigs to spread across the area from southwest to northeast this morning. Showers, with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms, will accompany this band of lower clouds. Will likely see some vis restrictions in the heavier showers. Cigs will lift from west to east later this morning through the afternoon as a cold front crosses the region. No significant wind concerns.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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