Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:41PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 2:17 PM EDT (18:17 UTC) Moonrise 2:58PMMoonset 3:53AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 958 Am Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast late at night, then veering southwest toward daybreak. Clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots backing south 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering north 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
LMZ849 Expires:201804252115;;478108 FZUS53 KGRR 251358 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 958 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-252115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 251735
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
135 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Update
Issued at 1000 am edt Wed apr 25 2018
three distinct upper level shortwaves were noticeable on satellite
and RUC analysis data this morning. One associated with deeper
moisture and sfc low pressure moving up the atlantic coast. Another
two were resulting in weaker areas of sfc low pressure along a
frontal boundary that stretches from quebec eastern great lakes down
into the low to mid mississippi valley. One of these weaker sfc low
pressures was just off to the east of lake huron. Portions of ne
lower were still seeing some spits of rain, within lingering low
level convergence, deeper moisture and departing upper divergence.

This should only take another couple hours to end, while a pocket of
deeper drier continues to work in from the west, out ahead of sfc
high pressure and upper level ridging from ontario into the lee of
the NRN rockies. Until then, gonna have to deal with some low level
clouds in shallow cooler air mass over much of NRN michigan. Skies
will be trending sunnier through the afternoon however, as
temperatures climb into the upper half of the 40s to lower 50s.

The sfc high pressure and upper ridging will gradually build in over
nrn michigan tonight resulting in clear skies and light winds. There
could perhaps be a little shallow ground fog in portions of
primarily NE lower, if clearing takes longer, leaving the bl not as
mixed out.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 300 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Clouds diminishing today...

high impact weather potential: none.

Primary low is over the carolinas, with an inverted trof extending
up toward SE lower mi. This trof then extends NE as a cold front
into southern quebec, where a weak surface low is found
(associated with a digging northern stream shortwave). These
systems will move east away from mi, and though we remain under
the backwash with lingering clouds and light precip, improvement
is expected today.

A ridge of high pressure will gradually build across wi today,
before easing into lower mi tonight. This is accompanied by a 500mb
shortwave ridge arriving toward Thu morning. These features will
result in deep drying subsidence thru the near-term period. That
said, to this point the models have been too eager to kick precip
out the door. It appears the models are doing a better job now, but
still might need to slow them down a bit more.

In NW lower and most of eastern upper, showers will end from W to e
by 12z 8am. Will need to hang onto some post-12z morning precip east
of an htl-lewiston-huron beach line, as well as in far SE chippewa
co (se of pickford). Given the mid levels dry below the sludgy low
levels do, there's some possibility for a transition to some drizzle
before everything is done, especially in NE lower mi. In addition,
with precip lingering longer as cooler air advects in, could also
see a few snowflakes mix in before things wrap up. All precip should
be done by noon or 1 pm.

Nw lower will see partial clearing even by 12z 8am, though another
band of low mid clouds will wrap back in later in the morning before
more emphatic clearing kicks in this afternoon. Eastern upper will
benefit from that clearing by midday, while NE lower kicks in mid
afternoon. Mainly clear skies for tonight, except for some cirrus
mid clouds perhaps drifting back into eastern upper mi very late.

Some concerns that mixing drying will be inhibited in NE lower mi
today long enough to contribute to some fog potential late tonight,
however, the days continue to get longer, and will not hit this yet.

Max temps mid 40s to lower 50s, warmest near saginaw bay. Min temps
20s to around 30f.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 300 am edt Wed apr 25 2018

Occasional shower threat with up & down temperatures...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern forecast: brief upper level ridging across michigan on
Thursday will quickly be replaced by shortwave troughing as several
perturbations arrive out of canada through the forecast period. The
initial trough is progged to extend from near james bay
southwestward through international falls into the central plains.

At the same time, a secondary wave is expected to be positioned
further northwest across manitoba. Attendant cold front to the
initial wave is set to progress across northern michigan from NE to
se Thursday night into early Friday morning, along with an
increasing scattered shower threat and a return to below normal
temperatures to wrap up the work week. The secondary wave is
expected to drop overhead this weekend, aiding to enhance troughing
and continue below normal through at least Saturday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops Thursday night into early
Friday.

Fairly quiet weather is anticipated Thursday with lots of sunshine
giving way to increasing cloudiness from northwest to southeast
toward sunset and beyond as the aforementioned cold front makes
progress toward the forecast area. Ribbon of limited moisture along
and ahead of the front is expected to yield only a scattered shower
threat, mainly after midnight through mid-Friday morning.

Low threat for a few additional light scattered showers Friday
evening into early Friday night ahead of the arrival of the
aforementioned secondary wave, but by and large, the overwhelming
majority of northern michigan will be hard-pressed to see any
appreciable rainfall during either time frame of potential showers.

Thursday high temperatures expected to climb several degrees above
Wednesday's... Ranging from the mid 50s across eastern upper and
along the lake michigan huron shorelines... To near 60 inland across
northern lower. 10-15 degrees cooler for Friday as temperatures dip
back below normal... Varying from the mid 40s to low 50s area-wide.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 300 am edt Wed apr 25 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Troughing continues across the western great lakes, along with
perhaps a lingering scattered shower threat, to start the forecast
period. Otherwise, nearly all guidance suggests an expansive area of
high pressure drifting from the plains into the great lakes by later
Saturday into Sunday with dry weather, lots of sunshine, and above
normal temperatures returning to end the weekend into at least the
middle of next week. Early trends suggest at least much of northern
lower could be well into the 70s for high temperatures Monday and
Tuesday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 135 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Stubborn MVFR ifr clouds...

while the light rains have just pulled east of apn, low clouds
remain locked in across NRN lower michigan in the shallow cooler air
mass behind a front that pushed through last night. Had to delay the
clearing that will eventually commence later in the afternoon and
possibly the evening for apn. Much drier air does take over through
tonight as high pressure and light calm winds will be common. Could
actually see some shallow ground fog too, again particularly at apn,
where the low levels will not get mixed out as well. Thursday
looking great, with just some increased higher level clouds out
ahead of the next weak low pressure and cold front.

Marine
Issued at 300 am edt Wed apr 25 2018
northerly breezes will diminish today and this evening, as high
pressure moves into the western great lakes, eventually reaching
lower mi tonight. Advisory level conditions will be seen on some
waters of lakes mi and huron today, tapering off faster on lake
mi.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Thursday for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lmz345-
346.

Ls... None.

Update... Smd
near term... Jz
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi37 min N 14 G 19 40°F 1020.3 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi47 min NNW 11 G 21 42°F 32°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last
24hr
NW5
G8
NW8
G13
NW6
G11
N7
G13
N6
G11
NE3
G6
NW4
NE7
G10
NE11
G19
NE8
G13
N6
G14
NE8
G13
N8
G14
N6
G10
N3
G6
N5
G8
N4
G8
N7
G11
N8
G15
NE7
G16
N8
G15
N7
G16
NW7
G12
N11
G19
1 day
ago
N8
G14
N5
G10
N6
G14
N7
G10
N6
G9
N4
N2
NE3
G6
E3
E2
SW6
NE2
E2
E2
E2
E1
NE2
E1
E3
SE4
SE4
G7
W3
W4
NW7
2 days
ago
NW5
G9
NW7
G10
N6
G11
N5
G8
N2
G9
N5
NW1
--
E2
E3
E4
E4
E4
E4
E5
E5
E4
E4
G7
E6
SE2
E6
G10
E2
G11
NW5
G8
NW7
G12

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi21 minNW 16 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds44°F34°F68%1020.9 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi22 minN 11 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy45°F34°F68%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrW9NW10NW8NW9NW5N4NE8NE7N7N7
G14
N4N8N8N6N6N6NW6N8NW11NW14
G19
NW11
G17
NW11
G18
NW12
G18
NW16
G19
1 day agoNW12NW14
G19
NW11NW8NW63NE7NE6E3E6E6E7W3E4E3CalmE3E4NE3E3S4NW7NW6NW8
2 days ago6NW11NW10NW10NW6NW5W3CalmCalmCalmE5E3E5E5E6E4E5E6E6E5E6NE9NE6NW14
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (14,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.