Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

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Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:44PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:33 PM EDT (16:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:02PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1014 Am Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Rest of today..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots veering southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Areas of fog overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southwest, then veering northwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves less than 1 foot.
LMZ849 Expires:201808182115;;256027 FZUS53 KGRR 181414 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1014 AM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-182115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181441
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1041 am edt Sat aug 18 2018

Update
Issued at 1040 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
short-wave trough has finally pushed off to the east with the
short-wave circulation center moving through new york state. Mid
level ridging is building into the upper midwest western great
lakes, along with surface high pressure building down out of
ontario into the northern lakes region.

Meanwhile, another morning with expanding sunrise stratus across
a large portion of northern lower michigan. Even some hint of what
could be interpreted as N NE flow lake banding on lake michigan
as low level temps have cooled a few degrees and water temps are
fairly warm. Either way, there is some moisture flux off the lakes
helping to beef up the stratus inland. A good amount of sunshine
in eastern upper mi this morning.

Rest of today: first, had to address the beefy stratus deck
across northern lower michigan which has become more expansive in
the last few hours. Mid august sunshine will eventually mix out
the stratus, likely into a varying degree of a CU stcu. But the
trend will be toward more sunshine as we get into the afternoon.

On a side note, a large amount of smoke from upstream fires has
spread into the region over the last 24 hours and will leave
somewhat of a partly sunny feel regardless. Have tweaked sky
forecasts accordingly.

Second concern, shower thunder potential once again this
afternoon evening. Daytime heating will push MLCAPE values to
around 500 j kg, greatest again in the S SE counties (possibly
pushing 1000 j kg toward saginaw bay). Showers and some thunder
are probably a good bet once again across northern lower michigan
this afternoon into early evening, possibly developing first
along whatever differential heating and or marine boundaries we
end up with. But under a prevailing northerly northeasterly flow
and resulting inland convergence, convective trend should end up
"toward the middle."
light winds aloft and relatively higher freezing levels (13.2k
feet this morning... Down a little from yesterday) still suggest a
low severe threat. But, as we've seen, a beefier pulse hailer or
two is possible, as well as slow moving heavy rain producing
showers storms.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 307 am edt Sat aug 18 2018

Seasonal late summer weather...

high impact weather potential: minor; with some convection possible
during the afternoon.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: lingering low lvl moisture and
potential for fog this morning and early Sunday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A fairly stable pattern across the great
lakes to start the weekend, as an area of high pressure stretching
from the central plains to quebec drops southward across the state
today and early Sunday. At upper levels, the 500mb trough which
pushed across the great lakes Friday, will continued to exit east
today. However, a weak ripple in the 500mb flow will sweep over the
northern great lakes later this afternoon. Mid level forcing is
extremely limited today with the weak 500mb trough, as 850 500mb
qvectors show only weak convergence over the SRN portions of the
cwa. However some lingering low and mid lvl moisture (sfc dew points
in the low 60s with 850mb dew pts around 12c) and therefore overall
instabilty (0-3km MUCAPE around 1000 j kg and 850 700mb lapse rates
nearing 6c km), will be sufficient enough that when combined with
passage of the weak upper wave this afternoon to generate at least
the chance of afternoon convection over the SRN cwa. Afternoon highs
around 80 degrees seem reasonable today as mid lvl temps cool a tad
from Friday.

Fog becomes more of a widespread concern across the forecast area
tonight and early Sunday morning, as surface and upper lvl ridging
settle in and generate mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds
across northern michigan. Current forecast trends suggest surface
dew points in mid 50s, while temperatures fall into the mid 50s
early Sunday morning. Overall will continue with dry forecast
Saturday night and Sunday morning. Will also increase the areal
coverage of fog, and mention locally dense due to lingering high
surface dew pt air and much longer nights across the northern great
lakes this time of year.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 307 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal
pattern synopsis forecast: high pressure will begin to build into
the region by Sunday morning. Flow will remain generally southerly
helping to keep temperatures above normal, but dewpoints will be a
little lower than we have seen the past few days. Subsidence
associated with this high should help to clear out skies, but some
haziness may remain as smoke from western wildfires continues to
drift over the great lakes. A strong low pressure system will be
moving toward the region, but is not expected to arrive until
Tuesday. We could begin to see some rain late Monday afternoon ahead
of the arrival of the main system.

Primary forecast concerns: nothing real pressing for the short term
period at this point, with the next real concern the system
Tuesday Wednesday.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 307 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
as mentioned yesterday, the primary concern over the long term
period is with a robust low pressure system that will be moving
near, or through, the region Tuesday Wednesday. Still uncertainty
with the track and strength of the system, which will affect if we
see more stratiform or convective showers. European guidance
continues to be stronger and further north with its track. This more
northern track may be part of its stronger solution, as it puts it
into closer proximity of the right entrance region of a jet streak
to our north, and is seeing stronger upper level divergence than
other guidance. While it has been steadfast in the more northern
track, it has weakened over the past few runs, and is getting closer
to other guidance in that regard. I also wonder if there is some
convective feedback, or maybe another issue, on the northern side
that is taking it further north. Indeed, as the new run trickles in
it has weakened a bit more and come further south with its track,
getting much closer to other guidance with passage near the thumb.

Even the weaker solutions are still producing a robust system for
this time of year, and strong winds could also be an issue.

Currently an axis of stronger winds (35 to 35kts in the 925 to 850mb
range) Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, with blends producing
a brief period of low end gales in southern lake michigan zones.

That seems reasonable at this point with some guidance showing
decent mixing potential with low level lapse rates AOA 7.5c km
there. Will need to continue to see how the wind threat evolves as
the details of the low continue to get worked out.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 630 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
expect mainlyVFR CIGS and vsby across northern michgian taf
sites through the afternoon as an area of high pressure settles
into the state. However, MVFR ifr vsby and CIGS in locally dense
fog is expected for a few hours yet this morning, as sfc dew
points remain high. Expect more widespread fog tonight with clear
skies, calm winds, lingering high sfc dew pts and longer nights.

Will mention MVFR CIGS and vsby in developing fog, becoming ifr
early Sunday morning across TAF sites.

Marine
Issued at 307 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory criteria this
weekend, as an area of high pressure stretches from quebec to the
great lakes. Though gusty northeast winds can be expected over
northern lake huron into this afternoon. High pressure exiting
northeast into quebec to begin the upcoming workweek, will help
winds and waves remain below small craft advisory condtions into
Monday evening over NRN great lakes nearshore waters.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Ba
near term... Sr
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Sr
marine... Sr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi53 min N 8.9 G 13 73°F 1018.3 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi33 min N 2.9 G 7 75°F 63°F
45024 23 mi23 min N 9.7 G 14 72°F 75°F3 ft1017.8 hPa65°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi37 minVar 310.00 miOvercast77°F64°F66%1018.2 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi38 minNW 310.00 miOvercast74°F64°F72%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4W5NW12NW10NW4NW8N7NW5NW6N4N3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmN4CalmN6NE63
1 day agoCalmNW8NW10NW8NW8N7NW5N3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmNE4NE3
2 days ago56W9W9SW7NW6NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmE4E4Calm3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.