Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:21PM Friday November 16, 2018 9:42 AM EST (14:42 UTC) Moonrise 2:30PMMoonset 12:21AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 341 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 20 knots after midnight. Cloudy. A slight chance of drizzle in the evening, then drizzle overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Drizzle and snow showers likely until midday, then a chance of drizzle and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots backing west toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
LMZ849 Expires:201811161615;;380889 FZUS53 KGRR 160841 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 341 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-161615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 161441
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
941 am est Fri nov 16 2018

Update
Issued at 940 am est Fri nov 16 2018
mature area of low pressure is north of the sault this morning.

Last band of moderate synoptic snow has been crossing the area
this morning, providing a little extra challenge to the commute in
many areas. Better returns are preparing to exit NE lower over the
next 1-2 hours. Should be safe to drop the winter wx advis at the
top of the hour.

Low level moisture is abundant behind this system, with extensive
low clouds across superior upper mi wi. There have been many
reports of dz fzdz across the lake this morning in wi. NAM bufr
soundings show cloud top temps getting as warm as -7c this
afternoon as mid-level moisture exits. This is definitely warm
enough to turn lingering light patchy precip to liquid, at least
at times. Cloud top temps cool off closer to -9c by sunset.

Patchy light snow and drizzle is a good bet across northern mi
this afternoon, with precip more extensive in the high terrain of
northern lower due to upslope (with a wnw 1000-850mb fetch). This
will be plain drizzle at the lower elevations, where temps are and
will remain slightly above freezing. Freezing drizzle will occur
in parts of eastern upper, and the high terrain of northern lower.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 312 am est Fri nov 16 2018
high impact weather potential: light snow with potential morning
freezing drizzle leading to slippery travel conditions. Additional
light snow amounts tonight, mainly the gtv bay region.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
one shortwave and associated sfc low pressure was lifting up the
atlantic coast early this morning, with NE lower on the backside of
the deeper moisture and deformation. This was continuing to result
in primarily light wet snow, but obs and regional radar are
certainly suggesting showing periods of freezing drizzle out there.

Meanwhile, another shortwave, sfc low and cold front was pressing
into NRN michigan, providing additional nuisance light snows. The
better radar returns were coming in off lake michigan into nw
lower straits eastern upper, where SW wsw winds, and better fetch
lengths and marginal overlake instability were providing for a
little uptick in reflectivity. A second cold front was seen dropping
south through the u.S. Canadian border, associated with another
weaker shortwave.

The light wet snow will continue to exit east through NE lower over
the next handful of hours, with a continued threat for some patchy
light freezing drizzle. Will monitor radar for potential ending of
some of those advisories. The deeper moisture associated with the
incoming shortwave, sfc low and cold front will also exit this
morning, along with all of it's nuisance precipitation. The air mass
gradually becomes colder through the day, but mainly tonight with
the secondary cold frontal passage. While fcst soundings leave a bit
to be desired today as far as seeing better ice nucleation, odds are
that scattered to numerous mainly snow showers are likely. Again,
it's mainly tonight when snows are the better bet. The low level
thermal regimes becomes increasingly more favorable for lake effect
snows, as h8 temps fall to -8c, to as cold as -14c in eastern upper.

This will be occurring within low level cyclonic flow, and while
there will be the approach of deeper moisture and another shortwave,
that will also likely be spreading some light synoptic snows to the
region, which will be feeding the increasingly more favorable lake
effect environment. This is especially the case for NRN lower
michigan. All-in-all snowfall amounts will be an inch or less today
with some 1-2" amounts into the gtv bay region tonight.

High temperatures today will be in the middle 30s most areas with
lows tonight in the 20s.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 312 am est Fri nov 16 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

On Saturday more zonal upper level flow will replace the general
troughing we've been having over the lakes. Overlake instability
looks a little less impressive than it previously did, but delta-t's
increasing to roughly 13 c through the day will help support light
lake effect showers. At the surface we'll be between synoptic
systems as higher pressure slowly nudges in from the west, keeping
us in light northerly flow through much morning, bringing higher
pops for lake effect snow to counties near grand traverse bay as
well as western chip mack counties. Winds back through the day,
becoming northwest after 18z and westerly overnight... Focusing light
les bands into portions of northwest lower then eventually the
straits region early Sunday. Through the day temperatures only warm
into the upper 20s and low 30s. On Sunday a shortwave trough crosses
through northern ontario, and a weakening cold front tries to pass
through the straits. Slightly drier air presses into the region,
bringing a brief reduction in snow chances. Highs on Sunday look to
be very similar to Saturday, struggling to climb out of the low 30s.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 312 am est Fri nov 16 2018
forecast concerns: minimal.

General troughing remains over the great lakes region through
midweek. Another cold shot of air comes Monday night into Tuesday
behind a cold front. This front looks to stall out to our south
Tuesday and return northward as a warm front Wednesday, starting a
warming trend in the low levels, so that late week highs return to
near normal for mid-november.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 529 am est Fri nov 16 2018
low pressure and a cold front will cross NRN michigan this morning,
bringing a round of light snow with minimal accumulations, generally
under an inch. Winds will increase and become gusty through the day,
while also turning more out of the W nw. Colder air filters into the
region through the TAF period, with additional light lake effect
accumulations expected, the best of which, an inch or two, closer
to mbl tvc late tonight into Saturday morning. MVFR CIGS will
prevail, but periods of ifr in better snow showers.

Marine
Issued at 312 am est Fri nov 16 2018
light rain and snow along with areas of drizzle freezing drizzle
will gradually peel away from lake huron through daybreak, making
way for an area of low pressure with a couple of cold fronts for
today and into tonight. This will result in the development of
scattered to numerous rain and snow showers coming in off lakes
michigan and superior. A tightened pressure gradient over this time
will also provide for advisory level winds waves for most all
nearshore waters. Winds taper off going through late tonight and
this weekend, as higher pressure slowly moves into the great lakes.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for miz024-
029-030-034>036-041-042.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lhz345-346-349.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Saturday for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for lsz322.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm est Saturday for lsz321.

Update... Jz
near term... Smd
short term... Stj
long term... Stj
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi62 min WNW 13 G 16 36°F 1007.5 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi54 min WNW 6 G 9.9 36°F 28°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi46 minW 87.00 miLight Rain35°F30°F82%1008.9 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi47 minN 07.00 miOvercast35°F29°F79%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5SE6SE8E6SE7SE7SE5SE4SE5SE5SE4SE64SE53SE4S4CalmCalmSW3CalmSW3W12W8
1 day agoNW5N4CalmCalmW3W4W4SW3CalmE3CalmE4E4E4E4E5E3E4--E4E5E6E6E6
2 days agoNW12
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NW12NW11W9W10W8--W14W9W10--W13W10--W6W3W3NW4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.