Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 9:12PM Friday May 24, 2019 1:57 PM EDT (17:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:39AMMoonset 10:11AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1105 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots veering south 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots veering northwest 5 to 10 knots late at night, then veering northeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Memorial day..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201905242100;;386646 FZUS53 KGRR 241506 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-242100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee, MI
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location: 44.25, -86.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 241501
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1101 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Update
Issued at 1046 am edt Fri may 24 2019
in the near term, we have had the debris from the first MCS move
by to the south, and removed the pops from all areas, save along
m-55 as the leftover showers move nearby. The next system is
looking to take a similar, and maybe even more southerly track as
it moves into southern wisconsin and the northern portion of the
rain looks erode as the system moves west. This fits the current
hrrr forecast. Overnight looks to be the main concern. While a
marginal risk for severe weather would signify maybe 1 or 2 storms
from all of the general thunder producing a severe event, not sure
we can sustain anything but generalized thunder within a large
rain shield. This is what the GFS nam nmm arw hrrr SREF are
beginning to look like. Something forms far enough south, that
"steals" the energy and we are left in the stratiform rain on the
northern extent of the line of storms. Looking at the current llj
(850 mb wind max), the head tends to point into S lower during the
evening, and move east into S lake huron and ontario by 09z sat.

So not overly enthused by the marginal risk for our area.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 255 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Marginal risk of severe storms tonight...

high impact weather potential... A few strong to severe storms
tonight... With damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Low pressure is developing to the lee of
the rockies over the southern and central plains early this morning.

Associated warm front extends from the developing low eastward thru
northern missouri to just north of the ohio valley. Several areas of
convection continue to fire around the surface low and north of the
associated warm front. Closer to home... Dry wx persists across our
entire CWA with an area of low clouds spreading southward out of
ontario and into most of our area under the direction of N NW low
level flow.

As we head into today... Low level flow will shift to the east this
morning as the upstream warm front begins to lift northward toward
michigan. Initial push of convection north of this warm front will
spread into the southern half of our CWA by around mid morning and
will continue to impact locations south of m-32 into the afternoon
hours. Instability will be insufficient for the development of
thunder today... So any precip that does develop will be strictly
shower activity. Under mainly cloudy skies and while remaining north
of the warm front... High temps this afternoon will only warm into
the lower 60s for much of our cwa.

Conditions become more favorable for thunder development and
possibly a few stronger marginally severe storms tonight as the warm
front lift into our area. Instability axis reaches into the southern
half of our cwa... With mucapes reaching 1500 j kg for areas along
and south of m-72 by around 06z. 850 mb theta E ridge axis will also
poke into our southern CWA tonight driven by a SW low level jet max.

Expect the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms by
late evening and into the overnight hours... Again with a marginal
risk of a few strong severe storms with damaging winds and large
hail the primary threats.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 255 am edt Fri may 24 2019
high impact weather potential: an isolated thunderstorm remains
possible across parts of northern michigan on Saturday.

Pattern synopsis forecast: strong upper-level ridging anchored
across the southeastern states early this morning is expected to
remain in place through the upcoming holiday weekend. Mid-level
ridging and attendant warmer more moist air is expected to build
into the upper midwest great lakes, but with additional shower storm
chances stretching into Saturday as a cold front, tied to low
pressure off to our northwest, slides across the forecast area. By
early Sunday, high pressure is expected to be sagging into the
region from the north bringing a return to dry weather to wrap up
the memorial day weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: high temperature trends, along
with lingering shower storm chances Saturday.

Latest trends continue to suggest a cold front slipping northwest to
southeast across the forecast area Saturday afternoon evening with
cloudier conditions than previously appeared, especially across the
eastern two-thirds of the forecast area as scattered lingering
precip continues to exit stage right. Will continue the inherited
thought of high temperatures topping out a couple of degrees cooler
than previously thought, but overall still a fairly warm day with
highs ranging from the mid 60s north to the mid-upper 70s across
much of northern lower. Hi-res guidance continues to suggest a few
diurnally driven showers and or a few rumbles of thunder across the
u.P and tip of the mitt Saturday afternoon into the evening,
although figuring storm coverage will be more the exception rather
than the rule.

High pressure gradually sags into the region from the north late
Saturday night into Sunday along with cooler temperatures despite
increased sunshine over Saturday. High temperatures expected to
range from the mid 60s - low 70s area-wide... Coolest across the u.P.

And nearest the lake shores.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 255 am edt Fri may 24 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Rather tranquil conditions continue Sunday night through much of
Monday with the next western wave expected to arrive as early as
Monday night into Tuesday with shower storm chances continuing at
times through midweek. Longer range guidance suggest a bit more of a
pattern shift, especially toward next weekend, as a closed low and
potentially much cooler temperatures drop through central canada
into the northern western great lakes. Lots of time for the details
to fall in to place on that, but will trend temperatures cooler than
normal toward the tail end of next work week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 651 am edt Fri may 24 2019
low pressure and an associated warm front will lift into the
western great lakes region today and tonight... Producing periods
of showers and mainly MVFR conditions. Thunderstorms will develop
tonight as well... With a marginal risk of a few strong to severe
storms late this evening and overnight. Llws will develop late
tonight. Surface winds will become E SE at around 10 kts today and
then shift to the S SE tonight.

Marine
Issued at 255 am edt Fri may 24 2019
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Saturday night.

Low pressure and an associated warm front will lift thru the western
great lakes region thru tonight... Producing periods of showers
and storms today thru Saturday. Winds and waves may be higher in
and around thunderstorms.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jl
near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 17 mi78 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 50°F 1021.7 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 22 mi46 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 56°F 49°F
45024 23 mi38 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 46°F 45°F1021.2 hPa44°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI5 mi62 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast60°F50°F70%1021.1 hPa
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI20 mi63 minN 010.00 miOvercast57°F51°F81%1021 hPa

Wind History from MBL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW15
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W16W15W9W10CalmNW5NW4W4NW5CalmNE5NE6N5NE3CalmCalmCalmSE8E7NW4SW7
1 day agoSE13
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2 days agoE10
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SE7SW4W53SE8SE6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.