Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fishers Landing, NY

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:07PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 11:36 PM EDT (03:36 UTC) Moonrise 3:35PMMoonset 12:14AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 445 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds under 10 knots. Mostly cloudy early then partial clearing.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Partly Sunny through early afternoon, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers.
Friday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with scattered Thunderstorms in the evening. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening.
Saturday..Variable winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Monday..East winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers Monday night. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishers Landing, NY
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location: 44.26, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 200230
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1030 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will move across the canadian maritimes overnight and
Thursday morning. A warm front will then gradually push north across
our region Thursday afternoon and evening... But its only impact will
be an increase in cloud cover. Friday will be quite unsettled as a
powerful storm system moving into quebec will generate strong winds
across parts of our region. A cold front associated with this storm
system will not only introduce a much cooler airmass for the
weekend... But it could also generate strong thunderstorms as it
moves through late on Friday.

Near term through Thursday
A surface high over eastern quebec and ridging aloft will support
dry weather overnight. Some high clouds from convection across the
mid-west will spill over the upper level ridge overnight with these
most prevalent near and north of lake ontario. There still will be
ample opportunity for radiational cooling with overnight lows mostly
in the lower to mid 50s. Across the north country and western
southern tier these high clouds will arrive later with virtually no
impact on nighttime cooling. In these locations lows will be in the
mid to upper 40s with valley fog again likely in the southern tier
valleys.

Strengthening low pressure will track across the upper plains
states on Thursday with an associated warm front extending
eastward from this system. For our area, the front will be ill-
defined, with the stronger winds and deeper moisture to our
north and west. As a result, 12z model consensus has trended
considerably drier than previous runs with Thursday now looking
to be a pretty much dry day for our region. There still will be
considerably mid and high clouds, but only a slight chance of a
stray shower with this boundary. Otherwise, highs will be in the
70s with the warmest conditions to the south and west with the
strongest mid- level warm air advection.

Short term Thursday night through Sunday
Thursday night the warm front will continue to move northeast
across ontario and quebec, with the trailing weaker southeastern
extent crossing our area. Model guidance has backed way off on
rainfall potential with the warm front since yesterday.

Isentropic upglide and somewhat deeper moisture may produce a
few scattered showers east of lake ontario, otherwise mainly dry
conditions are expected. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s
across western ny, and upper 50s to lower 60s east of lake
ontario. These lows will likely occur early in the night, with
rising temperatures late as southerly flow increases.

Following the warm frontal passage, our area will be solidly in the
warm sector for much of Friday. A few showers may linger across the
eastern lake ontario region Friday morning. Latest guidance,
especially the higher resolution NAM based guidance, also suggests a
few showers developing from the western southern tier into the
western finger lakes and central ny for a few hours Friday morning.

Once these two areas of showers pass, the entire region will be dry
through at least early to mid afternoon in the warm sector. 850mb
temps around +16c to +17c will support highs in the mid 80s at lower
elevations, with some upper 80s across the genesee valley. Much of
the higher terrain will top out in the lower 80s. Strong southwest
flow off both lakes will keep the buffalo and watertown areas a few
degrees cooler.

Speaking of the wind, a strong 55+ knot low level jet in the warm
sector will cross the eastern great lakes Friday. Ongoing warm
advection and general weak synoptic scale ascent will likely prevent
full mixing of the strong momentum from aloft. That said, it still
appears there will be the potential for advisory level gusts to
around 50 mph in the normal areas northeast of the lakes where
stronger winds are channelled, including the niagara frontier to
near rochester, and possibly jefferson county. Elsewhere, gusts of
30-40 mph are expected.

The other wind concern is the potential for severe thunderstorms
late Friday. Despite the very warm temperatures and surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s, instability will be somewhat tempered by
the very warm mid levels and associated poor mid level lapse rates.

Nonetheless, expect SBCAPE to reach 500-1000j kg in the warm sector.

Large scale forcing and convergence will increase late in the day as
the surface cold front and mid level trough approach, and deep layer
shear will be very strong. The sufficient instability combined with
very strong wind fields and increasing large scale forcing suggests
the potential for thunderstorms to grow upscale into short bowing
segments, with an associated risk of damaging winds.

Expect initial thunderstorm development just ahead of the cold front
upstream across southern ontario by mid afternoon. Latest higher
resolution guidance such as the 12km NAM and 3km NAM suggest
thunderstorms will also develop on the lake terrain generated
convergence zone from the western southern tier across the western
finger lakes to oswego county and the southern tug hill during the
mid to late afternoon. Meanwhile areas northeast of lakes erie and
ontario will stay lake shadowed until late afternoon. The cold front
pushes southeast across the area early Friday evening, with
accompanying showers and scattered thunderstorms crossing the area.

The frontal push should be strong enough to overcome the weakening
lake shadows in the evening and produce showers and scattered
thunderstorms areawide.

The cold front will sweep southeast of the area by later Friday
evening, taking most of the shower activity with it. Northwesterly
flow will usher in much cooler air, with 850mb temperatures plunging
to around +5 or +6c. This will promote lake effect upslope
cloudiness southeast of the lakes, with possibly just enough low-
level moisture left behind to produce a few scattered showers by
later Friday night through Saturday morning across these same areas.

Drier air will continue to build in through the day Saturday. This
combined with lowering inversion heights and diurnal influences will
quickly shut off any scattered showers by late Saturday morning,
while also slowly eroding away at the low-level cloud cover heading
into Saturday afternoon. Much cooler and drier air advecting into
the region behind the cold front will allow lows Friday night to
drop back into the much more comfortable 50s, with some upper 40s
for the higher terrain east of lake ontario. Daytime highs on
Saturday will struggle to climb above the lower to mid 60s, possibly
not getting out of the upper 50s across some of the higher terrain.

High pressure will settle overhead Saturday night into Sunday
morning, providing mainly clear to partly cloud skies. Lows Saturday
night will be cool, with upper 40s in most areas away from the
immediate lakeshores, and low to mid 40s east of lake ontario. The
airmass will begin to recover Sunday, with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s. A weak cold front moving south across ontario and
quebec will wash out near lake ontario late in the day, producing
little more than scattered clouds.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Sunday night the core of strong canadian high pressure will slide
eastward across quebec province... While its southwestern extension
remains squarely draped across our forecast area. This will result
in continued dry and quiet weather... With overnight lows ranging
from the mid 40s across the north country to the lower 50s across the
lake plains of far western new york... Where a modest southeasterly
downslope flow will take shape.

Monday and Monday night the strong surface ridge will settle
southeastward across the canadian maritimes... With warm advection
and an attendant influx of moisture isentropic lift consequently
setting up across our region on a strengthening southeasterly to
southerly flow. As a result... Initially dry weather across our
region Monday morning should eventually give way to increasing
shower chances by later Monday afternoon or Monday night... With
the timing of this still in question given continued variability
in the medium range guidance. Given our continuity of a dry forecast
and a desire to avoid flip-flopping on pops... For now have elected
to keep things more optimistic and hold off on mentionable shower
chances until Monday night... When a surface warm front will also
push into our region and provide added lift. Otherwise... The steady
warm air advection regime will result in temperatures continuing to
recover back to around normal or slightly above normal levels... With
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday followed by lows ranging
through the 50s Monday night.

On Tuesday the warm advection pattern will continue in between
strong high pressure over the western atlantic and an elongated cold
frontal boundary slowly pushing eastward across the upper great
lakes. This will result in a continued general chance for showers...

with the best probabilities for these most likely lying out in
advance of the aforementioned warm front. Otherwise... 850 mb temps
pushing into the mid teens celsius will allow surface highs to climb
back into at least the lower to mid 70s areawide... With warmer
readings than this possible if breaks in the cloud cover shower
activity materialize.

Tuesday night and Wednesday the aforementioned cold front should
slowly push eastward and across our region... Though this process
could be delayed somewhat further if (as per the latest gfs) a
secondary surface wave develops and ripples northeastward along
this boundary. Either way... This should result in continued higher-
end chances for showers and somewhat above normal temperatures
through midweek.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
High pressure over quebec will maintain fair dry weather across our
region overnight... With the majority of the TAF sites experiencing
continuedVFR conditions. The exception will be across parts of the
southern tier and finger lakes regions where some low stratus and
valley fog could result in MVFR to ifr conditions after 06z... And
especially between 09-13z.

On Thursday... A warm front will gradually push to the north across
our region. While this will be responsible for an increase in high
and mid level clouds... Any showers should stay north of the border.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers.

Friday...VFR MVFR. Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms. Windy with strong thunderstorms possible.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers.

Sunday and Monday...VFR.

Marine
High pressure near the ontario quebec border will result in
negligible winds and waves through tonight. A warm front will
approach on Thursday with a southeast to easterly flow. This will
be modest with the exception of western lake ontario where a 15
knot flow will result in choppy conditions Thursday afternoon.

A deep storm system over lake superior Thursday night will track
across ontario on Friday. As a result... Southwest winds will freshen
across the lower great lakes with 30 knot winds anticipated on lake
ontario. Fairly widespread small craft advisories can be expected
late Thursday night through Friday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Apffel rsh
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Jjr
aviation... Rsh
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 7 mi42 min 69°F1020.4 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 41 mi42 min 56°F 70°F1020.7 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi42 min ENE 5.1 G 7 62°F 1020.2 hPa50°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY17 mi40 minN 09.00 miFair50°F50°F100%1020.1 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY21 mi4.7 hrsNNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F55°F88%1019.1 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE7NE7NE5N4N5NE4NE6NE8NE7N7N9N9N9NE10NE10NE9N9N7N7N5NE4NE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW3SW6SW6SW54W7W8W10SW7W7W7W5CalmCalmNE7NE6
2 days agoE3NE3Calm543S3S4S4S5SW9SW10
G17
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G18
W9W9SW9S4S4S4S4S4S3

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.