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FXUS61 KBTV 290542 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 142 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers with embedded rumbles of thunder will continue into this evening along a surface cold front. Slightly drier air develops after midnight, before more showers are possible over northern New York on Monday. Our next system will impact the region late Monday night into Tuesday with showers likely. Temperatures will hold in the 40s to lower 50s tonight and warm into the upper 50s north to near 70 degrees south on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 137 AM EDT Monday...The last vestiges of shower activity are making their way to southern Vermont. Directly behind it, there have been breezy conditions with 20 to 30 mph gusts through the Champlain Valley which should abate shortly.
Otherwise, massaged hourly trends, but all else is on track.

Previous discussion...Interesting temperature day acrs our cwa with NY Mesonet site at North Hudson warming to 78F, while Saranac Mesonet just to the north has stayed in the upper 50s.
The impacts of clouds have created a differential heating type boundary over Essex County NY into the central CPV this aftn, where sfc based CAPE per laps has increased to 400-600 J/kg, just enough to support a few stronger updrafts with crnt line of showers dropping southeast. Behind this line of showers the atmosphere is rather stable, but latest HRRR/RAP and NAM solutions continue to show additional showers redeveloping toward 21z and continuing into the evening hours along a sfc cold frnt. This boundary wl have limited instability, so mainly anticipating a showers with a few embedded rumbles thru the evening hours, along with localized heavy down pours. Supported by pw values of 1.20 to 1.4 inches acrs our cwa. Boundary and associated forcing and moisture wl slide just south of our cwa by midnight, with developing subsidence. Soundings show deep dry layer btwn 850-500mb, while plenty of moisture is trapped below inversion, supporting the development of stratus/areas of fog/br possible in deeper valleys where precip occurred today.
Lows range from the lower/mid 40s to near 50F.

Monday guidance is showing the potential for additional showers over northern NY, especially in the morning. The areal coverage of showers is challenging, as both NAM/GFS show good 850 to 700mb moisture and weak 5h vort riding over building ridge. So feel qpf/pops might be a tad low, so have bumped chc pops into northern NY with schc into the CPV. Not anticipating a washout, but a shower or two is possible with cold frnt lifting back northward as a warm frnt, especially aloft. Temps are once again pretty tricky with boundary nearby and clouds impacting values.
Progged 925mb temps range from 4C NEK to 8C southern cwa, so have highs upper 50s to near 70F. Mid/upper lvl ridge begins to breakdown on Monday night with approaching boundary and deeper layer moisture as pw values increase btwn 0.90 and 1.2 by 12z.
Have chc/likely pops aft 06z with temps holding in the upper 30s NEK to near 50F SLV/CPV. Would not be surprised if temps warm acrs western dacks into the mid/upper 50s by 12z, given progged 925mb temps near 10C, while values hover just above 0C over the NEK.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 333 PM EDT Sunday...A weak surface low and mid-level shortwave will bring widespread precipitation to the region on Tuesday, especially Tuesday afternoon. Precipitable water values will near in exceed an inch, above the 90th percentile for this time of year, as a plume of moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible with some elevated instability, although it looks to be pretty limited based on model soundings.
High temperatures during the day on Tuesday will climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s, with southern portions of the forecast area getting close to 70. Precipitation will begin to diminish overnight Tuesday as drier air returns. Fairly mid overnight lows are in store Tuesday night with linger precipitation and cloud cover, with temperatures in the 40s to near 50.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 333 PM EDT Sunday...Upper level ridging will build across the region, with dry weather expected for the middle of of the week, although a few showers along the international border cannot be ruled out as shortwaves round the top of the ridge. Temperatures will warm throughout the week, with the broad valleys reaching into the 70s for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will continue to be on the warm side, with temperatures dropping into the mid 40s to mid 50s. A more unsettled weather pattern with scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected towards the weekend as an upper low moves into the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 06Z Tuesday...Changeable aviation conditions are expected over the next 6 to 8 hours as a front sags south. Near the front, ceilings of 200-800 ft agl and visibilities of 1-5SM are occurring. This should drop across KMPV and KRUT between 06z and 09z, and then exit. There should be additional moisture that drops south while an inversion builds, and this should send areas of 900-1500 ft agl ceilings along northern Vermont, the spine of the Greens, and towards KSLK. These clouds should lift about 13-14z. Then, ceilings trend VFR with ceilings around 6000-9000 ft agl. Some precipitation will lift near KMSS about 13z to 15z, but all other areas will likely remain dry with mostly virga possible in New York. Winds northeast over New York and north to northwest over Vermont at 6 to 12 kts. Wind speeds decrease after 22z and become more variable.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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