Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montpelier, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:26PM Saturday February 17, 2018 9:59 PM EST (02:59 UTC) Moonrise 8:50AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montpelier, VT
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location: 44.27, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 180241
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
941 pm est Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure sliding off the new england coast this afternoon
is making way for a low pressure system passing south of long
island and outside the benchmark. Light snowfall is expected
across southern vermont and along the spine of the greens,
generally 1 to 4 inches. A significant warming trend is expected
Monday through Wednesday of next week, along with increasing
chances for rain. Near record high temperatures are possible
Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs well into the 50s and
possibly lower 60s.

Near term through Sunday night
As of 916 pm est Saturday... Overall, forecast is on track with
minor updates made to pops and temperature grids. While radar
looks like snow has overspread the north country, much of the
leading edge is virga as precipitation is evaporated in the dry
mid and low levels. However, latest observations upstream over
southern vermont central new york show dewpoints rising quickly
as deep moisture pushes in from the southwest and wet bulbing
moistens the column. Areas of southwestern vermont are already
reporting snow at the surface, so given the fairly quick
moistening of the column seen upstream, expect snow to start over
most of vermont by midnight.

Previous discussion... As high pressure moves away from the
region this evening, a low pressure system will be skimming the
new england coast to the south. Some light snow will spread into
vermont after about 11pm. Very progressive mid-level flow is in
place, and will push this system east of the region pretty
quickly. All snow should fall by about 8am. Snowfall totals will
range from around an inch or less across northern new york to
two to five inches in southern vermont. There may be some higher
totals along the spine of the greens as well. Clouds and snow
will keep overnight temps mild, ranging through the 20s. Another
ridge of surface high pressure will build into the area Sunday
and Sunday night from the south. Will take a bit to push the
rest of the moisture eastwards on Sunday, but we should see some
sunshine by the afternoon, especially in the champlain valley.

We may also see some upslope snow showers lingering through the
morning hours in the NW facing slopes of the greens.

Temperatures will be above normal again on Sunday with some
upper 30s in the champlain and saint lawrence valleys with lower
to mid 30s elsewhere. Gusty NW winds upwards of 20 mph at times
during the afternoon. Sunday night high pressure center drifts
eastward and pressure gradient will be increasing with a
southerly return flow developing. Sunday night will also feature
temperatures well above seasonal normals with mid 20s in the
valleys and teens in the higher elevations.

Short term Monday through Monday night
As of 347 pm est Saturday... High pressure will continue to exit
to our east on Monday, placing the region under deep southwest
flow. Hence we'll see increasing warm advection and moisture,
leading to a period of precipitation Monday and Monday night.

It'll take a bit for the dry air at the surface to saturate, so
precipitation will mostly hold off until Monday afternoon, and
temperatures will be above freezing in most areas by then. So
expect most locations will see the precipitation start out as
rain, though a bit of snow may mix in across the higher terrain
of the adirondacks and northern greens at the onset. The rain
will be steadiest overnight Monday night as a warm front lifts
across the region. This will also allow temperatures to rise
much of the night after a brief drop in the evening east of the
greens. Overall, 24 hour rainfall amounts will be about a
quarter to a half inch, with the champlain and connecticut river
valleys seeing the least due to shadowing in the southwest
flow.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 347 pm est Saturday... The focus for this term becomes
very warm, near record warm temperatures, along with potential
rainfall placement. The warm front looks to become nearly
stationary north of the saint lawrence valley through Wednesday
morning, with waves of low pressure traveling along it. This
will bring periods of rain, particularly across northern
sections. There are still some model differences in frontal
placement and the extent of the associated precipitation, but
the consensus of the guidance shows 0.50-1.50 inches will be
possible through Wednesday with the heaviest amounts along the
border. In addition, temperatures will warm considerably through
the period, approaching record highs on Tuesday and Wednesday.

With temperatures well into the 50s to around 60, and Tuesday
night's low staying well above freezing, runoff from snowmelt
and rainfall will be a concern. See the hydrology section for
more details.

The mild spell comes to an end later Wednesday with a cold
front quickly crossing the region. Cooler and drier air will
return under high pressure through Friday. However, temperatures
will remain above seasonal normals, with highs remaining in the
30s to around 40 both Thursday and Friday. The threat of
precipitation returns Friday night and Saturday with another
surge of warmer air, though not nearly as mild as what we'll see
earlier in the week. Note that there are considerable
differences in model solutions for next weekend, so have stayed
close to a model blend to account for the uncertainty.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
Through 00z Monday... Ceilings will gradually lower but remain
vfr through 05z. Thereafter, will see some developing mainly
light snow as low pressure passes well south of new england.

Will see mainly MVFR conditions 06-12z with periods of light
snow, except 1-2sm light snow expected at krut. Snow should exit
quickly around 12z Sunday with ceilings vsby returning toVFR.

May see minor impact to airport ground ops early Sunday morning
at krut with 2-3" snowfall expected. Winds generally south
6-11kts overnight, becoming w-nw 5-10kts during the daylight hrs
on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Washingtons birthday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible.

Chance ra.

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Definite ra.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Likely ra.

Tuesday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Likely ra.

Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Likely ra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
shra, chance shsn.

Thursday:VFR. No sig wx.

Hydrology
As of 355 am est Saturday... A 48-hour period of anomalously
warm temperatures will affect the region from Monday through
Wednesday. Periods of rainfall, modest winds and dewpoint
temperatures climbing into the 40s to lower 50s will foster
rapid snowmelt across the entire area. Still some variability
shown with this afternoon's modeled 48-hr qpf, though the
general consensus is for two day totals averaging from 0.5 to
1.5 inches, heaviest north. Taking this all into account, modest
to substantial river rises look highly probable starting Monday
night and continuing through Wednesday, supported by naefs sref
mmefs hydrograph data. While widespread open water flooding is
not expected, several rivers may approach minor flood. Given the
numerous ice jams in place from the substantial thaw this past
january, localized high water flood concerns near these features
will also remain a concern. As future data helps hone the
forecast in the coming 36-hours, a flood watch will likely be
necessary for most if not all of the forecast area during this
period.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Neiles
near term... Neiles rsd
short term... Hastings
long term... Hastings
aviation... Banacos
hydrology... Jmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT4 mi68 minS 1010.00 miOvercast30°F10°F43%1020.4 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT18 mi65 minS 11 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F10°F42%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9N6N5NW6NW3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS9SE7S9S8S8S10S13S10S13S10S9
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1 day ago5SW8
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CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW8N4NW8NW10
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2 days agoSE5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE43CalmSE9E5SE7SW11
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.