Wednesday, November22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Montpelier, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:20PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 3:20 PM EST (20:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:13AMMoonset 8:46PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montpelier, VT
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location: 44.27, -72.6     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 221902
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
202 pm est Wed nov 22 2017

A cold front will clear the north country late this afternoon
and this evening, bringing an end to the mix of rain and snow
showers. Northwest winds will usher in colder air with partial
clearing overnight. Thanksgiving will feature fair weather with
partly to mostly cloudy conditions and chilly temperatures, as
surface high pressure builds across new york and new england.

Afternoon highs on thanksgiving day will generally reach the
low to mid 30s. Fair weather will continue on Friday with
moderating temperatures. The next chance for widespread
showers, mainly in the form of rain, will be Saturday with
another cold front crossing the area.

Near term through Thursday
As of 131 pm est Wednesday... Trending toward quieter weather
conditions late this aftn evening. The 850-700mb frontogenetic
forcing is beginning to weaken and shift ewd across central ern
vt with precipitation ending as expected at 1830z across the
champlain valley. Developing NW flow in the wake of the sfc
front will result in some continued orographic snow shower
activity across the NRN adirondacks and green mtns through the
first half of tonight. Maintained mention of -shsn across the
nrn mtns through 06z or so tonight. Otherwise, visible satellite
imagery showing some upstream clearing across the ottawa valley
of ontario. Should see a few breaks this evening and overnight
away from upslope mtn areas. Moderately strong sfc-850mb caa
expected, and associated steep lapse rates will promote some sfc
wind gusts 15-25 mph mainly 22-06z. Thereafter, ridge axis
building ewd across NRN ny will result in gradually diminishing
wind speeds. Will result in relatively cold overnight lows,
mainly in the teens to low 20s, except mid 20s in the vicinity
of lake champlain with the moderating influence of the
relatively warm lake waters (still 48f at the king street ferry

Chilly and quiet weather conditions for traveling on
thanksgiving day. High rh 700-500mb layer should maintain some
sct-bkn mid- level clouds, but should see light winds and highs
in the low-mid 30s. Winds will turn light south by afternoon.

As ridge axis moves to the east and shortwave trough grazes the
intl border, it appears that developing low-level SW 850mb flow
may allow a few flurries or snow showers to develop off of lake
ontario into SRN st. Lawrence and franklin counties. This would
mainly be 23z Thu thru 06z fri. Could see a dusting to 0.5" in
spots, especially ny route 3 corridor around star lake wanakena.

Low temperatures on Thursday night expected mid-upr 20s,
perhaps near 30f in SRN st. Lawrence county with greater
wind cloud cover.

Short term Thursday night
As of 258 am est Wednesday... Upper low passing well north of
the region will drag the tail end of a weak cold front through
the forecast area Thursday night with little overall impact
outside of some lake effect snow showers across southern st.

Lawrence and franklin counties of new york and the higher
elevations of northern vermont. Minor snow accumulations are
expected, generally less than an inch. By Friday morning, lake
effect will have moved out of the area and dissipated as high
pressure builds in with a partly sunny and seasonable end to the
work week expected. Highs should run mainly in the 40s.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 258 am est Wednesday... No big changes from the previous
forecast thinking for the extended period with the main
highlights being another weak frontal passage on the weekend,
and another big warmup mid-week.

High pressure over the eastern seaboard Friday night shifts
east Saturday in advance of another low pressure system passing
well north of the border over james bay. Dry warm front moves
through the north country Friday night with mild temps in the
30s overnight warming into low mid 40s Saturday before a cold
front swings in Saturday afternoon. Models continue to show a
real lack of deep moisture with this boundary as well, but there
should be enough moisture in the low levels to produce a few
scattered rain showers in the afternoon, and some upslope
enhanced snow showers Saturday night and Sunday as the parent
upper trough swings through.

High pressure builds in once again for Monday with temps
seasonably cool in the 30s for highs and teens 20s for lows.

Monday night into Tuesday the high shifts offshore and the
pressure gradient increases markedly across the region as strong
low pressure developing out of the lee of the rockies moves
northeast into the great lakes by Tuesday's end. Increasing
south southwesterly flow will bring another big warmup to the
region Tuesday with temps firmly in the 40s to possibly low 50s
in the deeper valleys with no precipitation expected.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
Through 18z Thursday... Ongoing ifr-MVFR in low ceilings and mix
rain snow will gradually improve, especially after 21z, as cold
front and associated banded precipitation shifts east of vt.

Will see some continued flurries into this evening across the
nrn adirondacks and central NRN greens with hir trrn obscd.

Otherwise, precipitation will end with gradual lifting of
ceilings back toVFR, and partial clearing working in from the
ottawa and st. Lawrence river valleys. Winds will likewise be
shifting into the nw, with gusts 16-18kts possible through 09z
Thursday. Thereafter, high pressure builds into ny and new
england with generally fair sct-bknVFR conditions for the
balance of thanksgiving day.


Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance shsn, mainly at slk with ERN end of lake effect snow band.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx. Friday night:VFR. Slight chance shra,
slight chance shsn. Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR
possible. Chance shra, chance shsn. Saturday night:
mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shsn, chance shra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos
short term... Lahiff
long term... Lahiff
aviation... Banacos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT4 mi30 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast33°F33°F100%1015.2 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT18 mi27 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast34°F30°F89%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS4S5S6CalmS3S5CalmCalm5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS7N3CalmCalmS3CalmNW4NW9NW7NW7
1 day agoN3NE5NW4N5CalmCalmSE5S4SE4CalmNE3CalmCalmSE3SW7SE3S7CalmS7S12SE8S11
2 days agoNW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.