Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 5:17AM||Sunset 8:21PM||Tuesday May 21, 2019 10:32 PM EDT (02:32 UTC)||Moonrise 11:12PM||Moonset 7:30AM||Illumination 90%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montpelier, VTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbtv 220003|
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
803 pm edt Tue may 21 2019
High pressure building in from the west will bring diminishing winds
and clearing tonight, with dry weather through the first half of
Thursday. An upper-level disturbance approaching from southeastern
ontario will bring our next chance for precipitation, with showers
and embedded thunderstorms possible late Thursday into Thursday
night. Another frontal system will bring increasing chances for rain
late Saturday into Saturday night, with drying conditions on Sunday
as the frontal system shifts east of new england for the latter half
of the weekend.
Near term through Wednesday night
As of 759 pm edt Tuesday... On track this evening to see mostly
clear skies with as high pressure settles in. Boundary layer
flow looks to be somewhere between 3-7 mph this evening so we
may not quite bottom out but its certainly looking like a
chilly night across parts of the adirondacks and northeast
kingdom. No significant changes to the forecast. Have a good
Previous discussion... Drier and cooler weather will prevail
through this period as high pressure settles across the region.
Clouds and showers will decrease in coverage this evening as we
lose daytime heating. Winds will be a bit slower to subside
since the pressure gradient between the approaching high and the
departing low will take a bit to relax. These winds are what
will keep it from being an optimal radiational cooling night.
Still, it'll be chilly, with lows dropping into the mid 30s in
the northeast kingdom and adirondacks. Can't rule out some
patchy frost in more sheltered spots in these areas, but not
enough areal or temporal coverage to warrant an advisory.
Elsewhere, lows will be in the lower to mid 40s.
Wednesday starts out with plentiful sunshine with the high cresting
right overhead. High clouds will begin to filter in during the
afternoon and evening hours as an upper shortwave rounds the upper
ridge. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement keeping the
precipitation associated with this shortwave will remain shunted to
our south, though a few showers may make it into the adirondacks late
Wednesday night. Wednesday's highs will be in the 60s to near 70,
while overnight lows should be in the 40s to near 50.
Short term Thursday through Thursday night
As of 339 pm edt Tuesday... Showers and a few storms are expected
Thursday evening as low pressure moves across the north country.
This activity is being monitored for potential development of a few
strong storms with the storm prediction center placing portions of
new york in a slight risk for severe weather and the remainder of
the region in a marginal risk. Details written out next paragraph.
Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Winds will pick up with 10 to 15 mph southerly winds becoming
Storms develop Thursday, generally between 2pm and 8pm, in high
shear, low CAPE environment. A compact shortwave will move southeast
from ontario across the north country around 5pm. Accelerating flow
aloft along the advancing shortwave will provide a favorable upper
level environment, though best convergence will be focused south of
our forecast area. The question becomes whether we can get
sufficient heating and enough return flow moisture to destabilize
the environment. Deterministic and ensemble forecasts indicate cape
values generally between 250 and 1000 j kg with the highest values
across new york. The advancing front will provide the lifting
mechanism, but a southerly track of the low pressure system would
give us a narrow window of time spent in the warm sector. Shear will|
be high with 0-3km bulk shear of 35 kts and 0-6km bulk shear upwards
of 60kts. This favors organization of convection, but may be too
fast for updrafts given the marginal instability. Theta-e advection
is good for the area, especially across northern new york, but the
system lacks strong frontogenesis and deformation. Destabilization
may also be hindered by a prefrontal trough with increased clouds
and some showers possible late Thursday morning, but the showers
could also potentially increase marginal lower to mid 50 dewpoints.
Furthermore, forecast soundings show a capping inversions in the mid-
levels. There is a bit of an elevated mixed layer aloft, but
convection will struggle to grow above 20000ft agl. Overall, the
chance for storms will be conditional with the better chances across
new york with a few capable of producing strong, gusty winds.
Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 339 pm edt Tuesday... Shortwave responsible for Thursday's
weather moves southeast and then offshore. Some wrap around moisture
will mean showers linger across eastern vermont, but the rest of the
north country should dry out for Friday. With generally clear skies,
temperatures should warm into the upper 60s, though eastern vermont
will likely remain in the lower 60s.
The next weather systems will come through late Saturday into the
overnight hours and has a good moisture feed with pwats increasing
to 1.5". Rain likely for portions of the day with a rumble of
thunder possible. Model trends are pushing back the arrival and exit
time, but still think precipitation should clear the area in time
for the marathon on Sunday morning. Mostly dry conditions are on tap
for the remainder of Sunday and much of Monday. Models generally
diverge at this point. Channeled flow as a result of the anomalous
ridge to our south means systems will quickly move in and around the
region with a fast moving cold front around Monday night Tuesday and
another mid-week. Temperatures will be seasonable, shifting above
and below normal at times throughout the extended range.
Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 00z Thursday...VFR through the TAF period as the gusty
winds start to settle down this evening. Skies will gradually
clear from west to east overnight, and winds will drop down to
around 10 kt by 06z at all sites. Mostly clear skies andVFR
conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period.
Winds will become 5-10 kt out of the north after 12z Wednesday.
Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.
Thursday:VFR. Chance shra.
Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
Friday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance shra.
Friday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.
Saturday:VFR. Likely shra.
Saturday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Likely shra.
Sunday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance shra.
Btv watches warnings advisories
near term... Deal hastings
short term... Haynes
long term... Haynes
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT||4 mi||41 min||NW 15 G 21||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||51°F||36°F||56%||1017.9 hPa|
|Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT||18 mi||38 min||NNW 5||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||51°F||37°F||61%||1017.5 hPa|
Wind History from MPV (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||Calm||S|
|2 days ago||Calm||NW||Calm||NW||Calm||SE||SE||Calm||S||S||S||S|
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GOES Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (22,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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