Saturday, November17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Hinesburg, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:24PM Saturday November 17, 2018 10:23 PM EST (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 1:27AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hinesburg, VT
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location: 44.27, -73     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 172350
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
650 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

A cold front will cross the region this evening with a few rain
and snow showers and temperatures remaining on the cool side of
normal through Monday. Another cold front is forecast to cross
the area later Tuesday, with an even stronger, arctic front
crossing during Wednesday. Scattered to numerous snow showers
are expected along these fronts as temperatures trend quite cold
by the thanksgiving holiday.

Near term through Sunday night
As of 644 pm est Saturday... All going according to plan. Cold
front slipping through champlain valley with a concentrated
area of mixed rain snow in the valleys and snow in the hills.

No flash freeze expected with this activity but if still wet and
untreated overnight then some freezing likely. Previous fcst was
good in timing thus just freshened things up.

Previous discussion (this afternoon)... A cold front remains on
track to slip through the forecast area this evening as winds
trend light west to northwesterly. Hi-res cam output shows
decent low level omega and moisture convergence along the
boundary through early evening, during which a brief period of
scattered to numerous rain snow shower activity is expected -
the p-type governed heavily by near-surface temperature
profiles. Some minor accumulations of less than 1 inch will be
possible in most favored locales across central and northern
counties. Low temperatures to range through the teens to locally
around 20 in the champlain and lower ct river valleys where
skies should trend partly cloudy over time later tonight.

Variable clouds then continue across the area on Sunday into Sunday
night as a weak shortwave trough skirts to our south across the
southern tier of ny state into southern new england. As such, the
highest coverage of clouds and chance snow shower pops will be
offered across southern counties accordingly where some minor
additional accumulations will be offered mainly along and south of
route 4. Temperatures trend 5-10 degrees colder behind this
evening's front - mainly 25 to 32 for maxes on Sunday and 15 to 25
Sunday night. Winds mainly light.

Short term Monday through Monday night
As of 300 pm est Saturday... A broad upper trough will be
positioned along the central-eastern us with southwesterly flow
over our region. A ribbon of vorticity will slowly meander
towards our south taking the better moisture with it. Some
lingering showers will be possible Monday morning, then
gradually diminishing as vorticity and moisture pushes south.

Despite that, mostly cloudy to overcast skies will continue to
prevail due to blocked flow. Overall, the airmass will moderate
compared to Sunday with highs in the 30s. Overnight Monday,
chances for snow showers begins to increase ahead of a weak
shortwave moving along a weak secondary cold front. Lows will be
in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm est Saturday... A few chances for light snow with
the potential for snow squalls being monitored for Tuesday and
Wednesday with the better chance being on Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain below average. Thanksgiving day is
expected to be quite cold with much of the area struggling to
get above 20, but is expected to be drier. Beyond thanksgiving
day, a pattern chance is visible on the horizon. More details
follow below.

A weak shortwave trough will push across the region on Tuesday. A
weakening surface low and associated cold front will push across
early Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Snow squall parameters are
non-zero and there is some marginal low-level convergence and
instability associated with the front. The better vorticity dynamics
and synoptic forcing for ascent will lie to our south and east
though. More likely, light snow showers will take place with the
greatest chances at higher elevations. Highs will be in the upper
20s to lower 30s with overnight lows ranging from near 10 to the
upper teens.

The stronger system approaches on Wednesday afternoon, which will
have a stronger vort MAX and better dynamics. Instability also looks
somewhat more favorable with modest low-level lapse rates indicated
in forecast soundings. We will watch the potential for snow squalls
as the system passes through the north country. The temperature
forecast will be tricky for Wednesday, and have leaned close to
model blends for highs. This system quickly shifts east with a
strong arctic air mass in its wake. 1000mb-500mb thicknesses fall
below 500dam with 925mb temps falling to -15c. This will translate
to temperatures on thanksgiving morning likely in the single digits
for all but the river valleys and near lake champlain. Additionally,
temperatures will struggle to reach above 20f with tight pressure
gradients suggesting brisk winds. Wind chill values could fall below
zero for portions of the north country, mainly around dawn. It will
not feel good outdoors... Pops will be minimal at least. Then a
pattern change will take place with high pressure setting up shop
and a moderated pacific air advecting throughout the continental us
once west coast high pressure breaks down. This will initiate a
steady warming trend for the weekend.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Through 00z Monday... A mix of bkn ovcVFR MVFR CIGS through
06z, improving to mainlyVFR thereafter. Cold front crossing
area thru 03z from northwest to southeast. Along this boundary
a brief 1-3 hour window of scattered rain snow showers expected
at most terminals. Brief ifr visibilities possible with this
activity as it passes. Winds initially west southwesterly from
6-10 kts, shifting west to northwesterly 5 to 10 kts behind the
boundary in the 21-00z time frame before abating to light and
variable after 06z. Some partial clearing at many terminals
after 06z withVFR and light winds for Sunday.


Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance

Monday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance shsn.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR and ifr, with areasVFR possible. Likely

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shsn.

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shsn.

Thanksgiving day:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jmg slw
near term... Jmg
short term... Haynes
long term... Haynes
aviation... Slw

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT17 mi30 minNW 99.00 miLight Snow31°F24°F76%1024.4 hPa
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT23 mi33 minNW 8 G 1510.00 miOvercast29°F25°F85%1024.1 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS3S3CalmS3W4W6CalmW4W3W5W8S4SW7SW8W8W8W5W8N5N9NW6NW12NW6NW9
1 day agoSE6SE6E8E3SE12CalmN4N7CalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmS3SE3S5S5SW4
2 days agoNE3E3CalmE3E3E3CalmE3E4E3E6Calm6SW7S3SE5S4SE6SE7SE6SE5SE6E5SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.