Friday, January19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Vergennes, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 4:46PM Friday January 19, 2018 12:11 PM EST (17:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:50AMMoonset 8:24PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vergennes, VT
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location: 44.27, -73.28     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 191447
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
947 am est Fri jan 19 2018

A ridge of high pressure extending from the upper ohio valley
northeastward into new york and new england will bring
seasonable and relatively quiet weather conditions today and
through the weekend. Variably cloudy skies are expected. A few
flurries are possible this morning, and across the northern
mountains over the weekend. A more significant storm system is
expected to affect the region by Monday night into Tuesday, with
the potential for substantial mixed wintry precipitation.

Near term through Saturday
As of 943 am est Friday... Soundings show plenty of low level
moisture between surface and 850mb, while vis satl pic indicates
lots of clouds across the north country and upstream over
southern canada. Have updated to increase clouds and adjust
temps to match current hourly trends. Given the depth of low
level moisture, would not be surprised a few mountain summits
above 4000 feet break out this aftn. Otherwise... South southwest
winds continue to increase this aftn evening with better mixing
expected overnight. Interesting soundings show plenty of low
level moisture redeveloping on Saturday aftn, with potential
more clouds.

Just a few lingering snow showers remain across vermont's
northeast kingdom at 1145z as 700mb trough axis has shifted ewd
into nh. Abundant low clouds remain in the wake of the shortwave
trough, so main change with the sunrise update was to reduce
pops thru the remainder of the morning. Still anticipating 2-m
temperatures to climb to near freezing for afternoon highs.

Previous discussion... A relatively quiet stretch of weather is
expected today through Saturday. IR imagery at 08z reveals a
well- defined mid-level vort crossing northern ny and vt early
this morning. However, overall moisture is limited with pw
values only 0.2-0.3". Some limited influx of low-level moisture
is occurring owing to low- level SW flow from lake ontario. This
combined with seeder-feeder processes (with lower stratus deck
in place) will result in some scattered snow showers to the
region through mid- morning, but any accumulation should be
limited to a half inch or less. Even after the mid-level
shortwave passes to the east, lower stratus deck will generally
remain in place with inversion 875-800mb layer helping to trap
low- level moisture clouds in place. Best chance for sunny
breaks will be across the SRN valleys. With 925mb temps warming
to -6 to -7c, should see high temperatures in the upper 20s to
lower 30s this afternoon.

The south to southwesterly gradient flow picks up tonight with
sfc low passing well to the north across central quebec. Will
see temps fall early, but then slowly warm after midnight with
well-mixed conditions and general WAA regime setting up. Lows
generally 20-25f, except a few degrees warmer in the champlain
and st. Lawrence valleys. Winds tonight generally around 10mph,
except 10-20 mph in the champlain and st. Lawrence valleys with
some gusts up to 30 mph possible from the champlain valley wwd
across NRN ny.

Weakly cyclonic mid-level flow along the intl. Border on
Saturday may bring a few flurries or snow showers to the
northern mtns, especially around jay peak. Otherwise, looking
for mostly cloudy skies with generally west winds 10-15 mph. May
see some downsloping resulting in best chance for sunny breaks
in the SRN champlain vly WRN rutland county, and also east of
the green mtns into the ct river valley. Continued moderation of
temps expected, reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Short term Saturday night
As of 403 am est Friday... In the wake of the weak cyclonic mid-level
flow, a rather weak cold front moves across the area during the
day on Sunday. Outside of a few isolated snow showers, not much
is expected out of this system except for a slight cooldown
from Saturday's high temperatures. Look for accumulations to be
minimal and primarily across the higher elevations. Look for
lows Saturday night in the mid to upper 20s and highs on Sunday
in the mid 30s.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 403 am est Friday... Temperatures begin to warm again on Monday
ahead of a fairly deep low moving across the great lakes and
into ontario sometime Tuesday.

Models are coming together on timing, with the GFS still running
slightly faster than ecmwf, but the overall idea remains the same. A
warm front moves in later in the day on Monday into Monday night.

This is followed by a stronger cold front on Tuesday
afternoon evening. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a widespread mixed
precipitation event, as the cold air on the surface will be tough to
scour out. General light snow to starts late on Monday, a good
amount of sleet and perhaps areas of freezing rain early Tuesday
morning before switching to rain during the day and ending as snow
and some possible mix Tuesday night. Still, this far out locking
into particular locations or amounts for sleet freezing rain is a
bit premature as the forecast will continue to change until we get
closer to the event. Still, on the bright side, with this looking to
be much cooler than last week's event, hydro looks to be less of a
concern but still bears monitoring as we still have several ice jams
in place across the forecast area.

After this system, Wednesday and beyond look rather quiet and
colder, though a snow shower or two are not out of the question.

Look for highs in the long term in the 30s with Tuesday touching the
lower 40s in the valleys and overnight lows in the 20s to teens
through Tuesday and in the single digits beyond that.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
Through 12z Saturday... A moist west-southwesterly low-level flow
from the great lakes is maintaining mainly MVFR ceilings across
the TAF sites early this morning, with localized ifr (500' at
1205z) at slk due to upslope flow conditions. These ceilings
should persist through the morning, with some gradual
improvement this afternoon. Earlier snow showers are generally
over at the TAF locations, with just a few lingering flurries
across the northeast kingdom. Strengthening winds tonight will
tend to scour out the stratus layer, and conditions will trend
bkn070-090 after sunset this evening. Sustained winds generally
s-sw 5-10 kts daylight hrs today, and 10-15kt tonight. Should
see some localized gusts to 25kt at mss btv as p-gradient
strengthens overnight. With 925mb flow increasing to 50-55kt
late tonight, may see some llws concerns at slk mpv after 07z or


Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Slight
chance shsn.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight chance shsn.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance

Monday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance sn.

Monday night: MVFR and ifr. Definite sn, definite ra, definite
pl, definite fzra.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Likely ra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos taber
short term... Verasamy
long term... Verasamy
aviation... Banacos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT16 mi77 minS 98.00 miOvercast26°F18°F71%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW7S7S5SW5SW4S6S3SW3S7S8S8S5S7S6SW3S6S8S7S8S8S8S8S9S12
1 day agoNW8NW5N6CalmNE3N3CalmSE4SW3SW3S6S6S9SW5CalmS5S11S11S7SW4S6S12S8S9
2 days agoS6S6S5S7S6S3SW3CalmNW4CalmN3CalmNW5CalmCalmNW6NW4CalmNW3CalmNW9NW4N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.