Thursday, November15, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Vergennes, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:26PM Thursday November 15, 2018 2:57 AM EST (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:08PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vergennes, VT
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location: 44.27, -73.28     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 150611
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
111 am est Thu nov 15 2018

High pressure remains over the northern new york and vermont
region tonight, and with mostly clear skies temperatures will
plummet to near record values. Weather remains dry through
Thursday, and then a coastal low will bring more snow to the
area for Thursday night and Friday. A winter weather advisory is
in effect for our entire area.

Near term until 11 am this morning
As of 106 am est Thursday... Wv IR continues to show widespread
high clouds pushing into the north country limiting radiational
cooling from the champlain valley west. Portions of the
northeast kingdom may still fall a few degrees but for the most
part we've bottomed out and shouldn't fall too much colder.

Either way its still quite the chilly night out there with temps
in the single digits and teens.

Previous discussion... Satellite imagery shows high clouds
spreading over the forecast area as a potent 180+ kt upper jet
moves overhead. These clouds continue to make for a difficult
temperature forecast overnight, tempering some of the expected
radiational cooling overnight. Temperatures were quick to drop
earlier this evening before the upper clouds moved in, however
the rate of surface cooling has slowed over the next few hours.

Still expecting a very cold night with at near record lows, but
have raised overnight lows a couple of degrees to account for
the clouds.

Previous discussion... Coldest airmass of the season remains in
place across the north country overnight and Thursday. For the
near term, our weather is dominated by building high pressure.

Brisk northwesterly winds today will be dropping off later
tonight as high ridges overhead. Near record low temperatures
are forecasted tonight as ideal radiational cooling scenario is
set up. Skies will be mostly clear and winds light. We will have
the coldest night of the season thus far with widespread single
digits above and below zero. See climate section below for
records. Flow becomes light tonight, so more of a tea kettle
effect over the lake is anticipated as warm air rises, it cools
by expansion, and should be enough to produce some localized
clouds near the lake. Thursday after a chilly start mid upper
level moisture begins to overspread the region after 18z. Expect
clouds to lower and thicken during the afternoon hours with
temps mainly in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Light winds become
south southeast 5 to 15 mph.

Short term 11 am this morning through Friday night
As of 400 pm est Wednesday... Bulk of our exciting weather will
be occurring during the short term portion of the forecast. Our
next winter storm will impact the region with widespread 3-7
inches of wet snow with ratios around 10:1 again. Snow will
begin Thursday night and continue through Friday, then some wrap
around snow showers on Friday night. A surface low pressure
system will be centered off the DELMARVA area by 00z Friday,
then lift northeastward and spread snow from south to north
across our area. As this low lifts northeastward, an upper level
low will also track towards southern new england. The now
vertically stacked low pressure system will be centered just
south of CAPE cod by 12z Friday. Good lift and dynamics will
mean everywhere should see significant wintry precip with the
eastern slopes seeing the highest totals due to orographic
enhancement. During the day Friday a warm nose and dry slot push
just south of our area, and if this changes so will our snow
totals. Expect mainly just light snow with this storm, though
may have some rain mix in especially in the champlain valley on
Friday as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 30s even. But,
most of the precipitation should be done by that point. Bulk of
the precipitation will be moving across the area from 03-18z,
then the precipitation becomes more showery as the low pulls
further off to the east. A much weaker low pressure system
passes to our north Friday night, along with some vorticity
advection so could see some renewed snow shower action
especially in our northern new york area overnight.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm est Wednesday... No major changes to the extended,
with no real significant weather systems expected. A few weak
systems will bring light precipitation Sunday and Tuesday,
otherwise it'll be relatively quiet. On Saturday, plenty of low
level moisture will be around, and with us still under the
influence of a broad upper level trough, expect conditions to
remain mostly cloudy throughout the day with a chance for some
higher elevation snow and scattered showers elsewhere.

Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 30s, with the
champlain valley the warmest as downslope westerly winds should
warm us up into the low 40s.

High pressure will finally nudge into the area on Sunday and
provide us with a welcome reprieve of nice weather. Temperatures
will be a little chillier than Saturday with highs mainly in
upper 20s to near freezing. Skies should be mostly sunny so
expect the nicest conditions of the extended period on Sunday.

With clear skies and light winds, have nudged temperatures down
a few degrees anticipating a good night of radiational cooling.

Additionally, with a substantial snowpack likely across the area
temperatures could be even colder than current guidance
suggests. The airmass on Sunday will be much more moderate than
we are currently seeing so low will likely still be in the teens
to low 20s. Otherwise, we are watching a weak clipper system
for Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures should be supportive
of all snow, but with limited available moisture thinking at
this time is that this should be mainly a terrain driven snow
with lesser amounts across mainly the northern valleys. As for
the cold air mass for mid-week next week, this current suite of
model guidance has fluctuated slightly with deterministic gfs
giving conditions similar to today and ECMWF trending ~10
degrees cooler with high temperatures here in burlington only in
the teens.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Through 12z Friday...VFR conditions and light winds will
continue through the day on Thursday before widespread ifr lifr
snow moves into the north country overnight Thursday night.

Winds will begin to shift from the NW to the S over the course
of the day Thursday.


Friday: mainly MVFR and ifr, with localVFR possible. Definite
sn, definite ra.

Friday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Saturday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shra,
chance shsn.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Monday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Below are the record low min temperatures for november 15th:
burlington, vt 9 (1933)
montpelier, vt 8 (1996)
st. Johnsbury, vt 16 (2003)
massena, ny 12 (1967)
plattsburgh, ny 13 (1967)
saranac lake, ny -12 (1993)

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 3 pm est
Friday for vtz001>012-016>019.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 3 pm est
Friday for nyz026>031-034-035-087.

Synopsis... Neiles
near term... Deal neiles rsd
short term... Neiles
long term... Larocca
aviation... Deal
climate... Rsd

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT16 mi64 minESE 310.00 miFair15°F7°F70%1037.5 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW12NW11
1 day agoE4CalmS9S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4NW17
2 days agoE4CalmE3CalmE3CalmS10S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.