Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vergennes, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:29PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:12 PM EST (21:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:56PMMoonset 8:37AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vergennes, VT
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location: 44.27, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 202055
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
355 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Snowfall will develop during the evening hours tonight as a warm
front lifts through the region. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches
will be common across the green mountains and eastern vermont while
the rest of the area will generally see 1 to 3 inches of snow.

Temperatures will warm through the overnight period which may allow
for some sleet to mix in with the snow across southern vermont and
portions of northern new york. After highs warm into the upper 30s
to mid 40s on Thursday, temperatures will return back to normal
values for Friday and Saturday before another, and more potent,
warm front lifts northward and raises temps into the mid to upper
40s for Sunday. Ahead of this front, a a mix of snow, freezing rain
and sleet will be seen as temperatures are slower to cool at the
surface compared to just off the surface.

Near term through Thursday night
As of 348 pm est Wednesday... A low pressure system located over
virginia will continue to track northeastward heading into Thursday.

As this happens, a warm front will continue to lift northward toward
the north country. Snowfall ahead of this warm front will move into
southern vermont and portions of northern new york between 6 and 8
pm and into central and northern vermont between 8 and 10 pm.

Snowfall amounts will be greatest across the eastern half of vermont
(from the green mountains eastward) with greatest frontogenetic
forcing being closer to the low pressure system. Snowfall amounts
will range from 3 to 5 inches across eastern vermont with the rest
of the forecast area seeing between 1 and 3 inches. As warmer air
begins to filter in aloft behind the warm front, there is the
possibility for some sleet to mix in with the snow. Warmer air aloft
will begin to partially melt and refreeze as it falls below the
melting later across southern vermont and portions of northern new
york after midnight tonight. Based on the latest high-res guidance,
they are trending toward a "colder" solution which would minimize
the potential for mix but still looks favorable for some locations
to see some sleet mix in.

Temperatures for the large part will either be steady-state or
warming throughout the night with increasing warm air advection. In
addition, gusty southerly winds will develop toward morning which
will aid in mixing down warmer air. These gusty winds won't be
particularly strong but will range between 20 and 35 mph. We get dry-
slotted pretty quick Thursday morning which will allow much of the
precipitation to end toward sunrise but a good westerly jet should
help showers linger on the western slopes of the adirondack
mountains as well as the northern green mountains. Thermal profiles
would support a mix of rain and snow which would lean towards more
rain during the late morning and afternoon hours and trend toward
mostly, if not all, snow as a cold front slides through late
Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper
30s to mid 40s with lows dropping into the 20s.

Short term Friday through Saturday
As of 353 pm est Wednesday... Friday starts out mostly dry with
some lingering upslope mountain snow showers under light
northwest flow. High pressure builds during the morning and the
weather should be fairly pleasant across the north country with
temps near normal. Highs will be in the mid 30s Friday
increasing to the mid to upper 30s Saturday. Lows will be
slightly above normal with temps only in the low to mid teens.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 353 pm est Wednesday... The quiet weather is short lived
as a system will push into the great lakes region Saturday night
and will bring widespread precipitation to the north country
Sunday through Monday. A vertically phased low pressure system
will develop off the lee edge of the rockies and push northeast
over the great lakes bring continued warm southerly flow. Based
on thermal profiles and soundings there's going to be some dry
air in the lower levels that should lead to a fair bit of wet
bulb cooling initially. That should keep the precip type as all
snow for much of the evening before changing over to mixed
precip with some snow pellets and a 2-3 hour window of some
freezing rain before the temperatures warm well above freezing
late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Rain should continue
through much of the morning Sunday before a mid level dry slot
brings a brief lull in the action Sunday evening. Behind that a
cold front will slowly drop temperatures and precip will start
again as snow Sunday night into Monday morning.

Sunday afternoon there's a strong low level jet that noses into
the saint lawrence valley and thats going to potentially do two
things, one mix some stronger gusts into the saint lawrence,
and two shadow the champlain valley. So total precip will likely
be significantly impacted by orographic effects.

High pressure then settles back in across the region Monday
night and Tuesday with another shortwave bringing some
precipitation mid week however temps should be cold enough to
mitigate any mixed precip concerns.

Based on the latest suite of guidance i'm not real bullish on
any flooding threats outside any river locations that are not
currently jammed with no channels. 24 hour rainfall totals
appear to be on the order of a half to three quarters of an inch
and absent quite a bit warmer temperatures I dont see significant
snow melt running off. So there shouldn't be enough water added
to the basins to lift and break ice. That said, we'll continue
to monitor for any changes and specifically for those locations
that already have an ice jam in place.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
Through 18z Thursday...VFR conditions will persist through the
remaining afternoon hours with wind gradually increasing to
around 10 knots from the south. Between 01z and 03z, snowfall
will begin to move into TAF sites with ifr visibilities and MVFR
ceilings expected with the falling snow. Snow will taper off
quickest across valley locations with higher elevations like
kslk and kmpv likely holding onto precipitation a bit longer.

There will be some sleet mixing in with the snowfall over kslk
after midnight but it looks like precipitation will taper off
prior to TAF sites seeing a transition to some light rain. Winds
will become gusty from the south southwest Thursday morning with
winds gusting between 18 kt and 22 kt. Ceilings will trend back
towardVFR Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night:VFR. Chance shsn.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday night:VFR. Likely fzra, chance ra, chance pl.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Definite shra,
definite ra, definite fzra.

Sunday night: MVFR and ifr. Likely shsn, likely shra.

Monday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance shsn.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Winter weather advisory from 8 pm this evening to 10 am est
Thursday for vtz003-004-006>008-010-012-017>019.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Clay
near term... Clay
short term... Deal
long term... Deal
aviation... Clay


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT16 mi79 minS 910.00 miOvercast25°F10°F53%1030.1 hPa

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Last 24hrN5N3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmS7S10S8S10S9S10
1 day agoN7NE4SE4CalmCalmCalmNE5N4N6N8N7N7N53CalmCalmNE3NW5NW6N7N8N8N10N7
2 days agoNW5NW5NW4NW3NW4NW4NW3N3N4NW4N5NW5N4N5N6N7N6NW11N13NW12NW13NW15N15N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.