Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thousand Island Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:37PM Saturday May 27, 2017 1:22 PM EDT (17:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:24AMMoonset 9:40PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1056 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Rest of today..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy late this morning...then becoming partly Sunny.
Tonight..Light and variable winds. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Sunday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight.
Monday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thousand Island Park, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.27, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 271447
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1047 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will cross the lower great lakes to start this
memorial day weekend... So generally fair weather can be expected
through at least Sunday morning. Conditions will then deteriorate
Sunday afternoon as an approaching warm front will present the
threat for some showers and thunderstorms for the western counties.

The unsettled weather will become more widespread Sunday night when
a cold front will push across the region.

Near term through tonight
Clouds continue to hound the forecast area this morning as moisture
remains trapped underneath a subsidence inversion, with additional
cloud cover being contributed by the remnant cloud debris from
dissipated convection passing to our south across pa. Latest visible
imagery does show some erosion occurring in the stratus layer to our
west and northwest... However goes-16 imagery shows stratus is
quickly being replaced with rapidly developing stratocu where
clearing is occurring, most notably across NW pa.

With the above in mind, still expect that we will see denser cloud
cover continue to diminish, with some peeks of sunshine this
afternoon. However, the mix of Sun and clouds will most definitely
tilt more towards the cloudy end of the spectrum as we move through
the afternoon. As a result, have backed off on the temperature
forecast by a few degrees, going with low to mid 60s across most
areas.

We should see some clearing tonight, as upper level ridging moves
overhead and drier air in the mid-levels moves into the region. In
addition, with the loss of diurnal heating, afternoon stratocu
should dissipate. However, given lingering low level moisture,
should expected clearing materialize, we may see areas of fog
develop late tonight. Look for temperatures to fall into the lower
50s overnight, with upper 40s in the typically cooler north country.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
During the first 24 hours of this period... Yet another in a series
of closed upper level lows will dig from the canadian prairies into
the upper great lakes... With an associated broad surface reflection
tracking from illinois to the ontario-quebec border. In the process...

this system will push a warm front across our region between late
Sunday and Sunday evening... Before swinging its trailing cold front
into far western new york later Sunday night.

Over the past two days... All models have continued to trend slower
and slower with the arrival of this next system... With the 27 00z
suite of guidance no exception. As a result... Sunday continues to
look progressively better for outdoor activities... With all areas now
appearing likely to remain rain free through at least mid afternoon...

before the aforementioned warm front brings slowly increasing chances of
convection to areas from the genesee valley west late Sunday afternoon.

Owing to the slower arrival of the warm front and its attendant cloud
cover and convection... There will also be a greater window for sunshine
and consequently better daytime heating. In tandem with 850 mb temps
warming to between +10c and +14c... This should be enough for most areas
to see highs in the mid to upper 70s... With a few of our normally
warmer spots potentially reaching the 80 degree mark.

As we move into Sunday night... The combination of continued warm air
advection across our region... Increasing height falls aloft... And the
arrival of the above mentioned surface boundaries will provide ample
lift in the presence of an increasingly moist airmass (pwats climbing
to around 1.5 inches)... Resulting in widespread showers developing
across our region from west to east. There will also likely be some
embedded thunderstorms as well given the presence of some weak to
modest instability... Though the relatively limited nature of the
instability and the unfavorable nocturnal timing should result in any
storms remaining on the tame side. Otherwise we can expect a rather
mild night... With the general warm air advection regime and southeasterly
to southerly surface flow both helping to keep temps from falling below
the upper 50s to lower 60s... Resulting in overnight lows that will be
some 10 to 15 degrees above late may normals.

By sunrise Monday the trailing cold front will be situated over far
western new york... With this feature then pushing east across the
rest of our region through the midday early afternoon hours. Fairly
widespread showers and embedded storms out ahead of the front will
tend to diminish pretty sharply from west to east as strong drying
and subsidence overspread the region in its wake... With the much drier
air and increasing lake shadowing only allowing for a low chance of
some secondary lake breeze-driven afternoon convection across interior
portions of the southern tier and finger lakes. Otherwise... Weak to
modest cool air advection in the wake of the cold front will only
result in a small drop in temps from Sunday... With most areas seeing
highs range in the lower to mid 70s. The coolest overall readings
will be found northeast of the lakes... Where a stiffening southwesterly
breeze off the cooler lake waters will be in place.

Monday night the closed upper level low will continue to slowly meander
its way across ontario province... While maintaining a general cyclonic
flow across our region. Any leftover diurnally-driven convection should
come to a fairly quick end during the evening hours... With the above
mentioned cyclonic flow then supporting a general low chance of some
widely scattered light showers overnight. Temperature-wise... Cooler
air continuing to filter into our region will allow overnight lows
to settle back into the lower to mid 50s.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Moving on into the extended portion of the forecast... The massive upper
level low will only slowly meander its way across the great lakes and
southeastern canada through the middle portions of next week... With its
associated pool of cooler air slowly filtering across our region. This
will result in highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday pulling back
into the mid to upper 60s for both Wednesday and Thursday... While
nighttime lows gradually settle back to between 45 and 50.

With respect to precipitation potential... Numerous shortwave impulses
rotating around the upper low will result in frequent opportunities
for showers across our region... With some embedded thunderstorms also
possible Tuesday and Wednesday with diurnal heating destabilization of
our slowly cooling airmass. While timing such waves remains a difficult
exercise this far in advance... In general precipitation chances should
tend to peak each afternoon across areas away from the lakes owing to
diurnal heating... Before diminishing each night with nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary layer.

Late in the period... The upper level low will begin to lift out into
the canadian maritimes... While allowing surface high pressure to build
eastward into our region. This should finally bring a return to drier
weather to close out the work week... Though temperatures will probably
remain a bit below normal with highs remaining confined to the mid
and upper 60s on Friday.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Ifr CIGS have finally lifted into MVFR range this morning, low level
moisture is starting to mix out somewhat. Satellite imagery
indicates some clearing along the edges of the stratus layer, and we
should see this stratus layer continue to lift and eventually
scatter out this afternoon, towards 18z. However, enough moisture
lingers that any clearing will result in the rapid development of
vfr MVFR stratocu this afternoon, with CIGS expected to persist
across most locations.

Expect clearing to take place tonight, with upper level ridging
moving overhead and somewhat drier air moving across the area.

However, low-level enough moisture should linger across the region
that, should expected clearing occur, fog development will be
possible.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR but with a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms west of the genesee valley.

Sunday night... Areas of MVFR with fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday... MainlyVFR but with leftover showers and thunderstorms...

mainly over the finger lakes and eastern lake ontario regions.

Tuesday and Wednesday... MainlyVFR with scattered afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.

Marine
Weak high pressure will cross the lower great lakes today and early
tonight. This will maintain a weak surface pressure gradient that
will keep light winds in place along with negligible waves.

As a warm front approaches on Sunday... East to southeast winds will
freshen a bit... But will remain well below small craft advisory
levels. The only ill effects will be choppy conditions on the
western end of lake ontario... And particularly near the mouth of the
niagara river where the winds will oppose the outflow from the
river. The main concern though will come from thunderstorm activity
that could develop during the afternoon. This threat will be
greatest over lake erie.

Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread over the lower
great lakes Sunday night... Gradually spreading across the st
lawrence valley late Sunday night and Monday. Meanwhile... Winds will
continue to freshen Sunday night as they veer to the south in the
wake of the passing of a pair of frontal boundaries... Including the
aforementioned warm front.

For memorial day... The showers and thunderstorms will push east...

clearing lake erie by mid morning and eventually clearing lake
ontario by mid afternoon. Moderate southwesterlies will be found on
both lakes... But winds and waves should remain below small craft
advisory levels.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rsh wood
near term... Wood
short term... Jjr
long term... Jjr
aviation... Wood
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 7 mi65 min 53°F1012.4 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 42 mi65 min 67°F 1012.5 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi65 min WNW 5.1 G 5.1 57°F 1012.9 hPa54°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
W8
G13
W13
G16
W10
G13
W7
G11
W4
W5
W7
G10
W5
G8
SW4
W3
S1
W4
W2
SW1
W2
W1
N2
NE3
W2
N5
NE7
NE5
N4
W4
1 day
ago
SE6
G11
E9
G14
SE11
G17
E6
G11
E7
G10
E8
E6
G14
SE9
G13
SE9
G13
SE11
G15
SE10
G14
SE11
G17
SE9
G14
SE6
G11
SE7
--
NE4
G7
NE3
NE4
NE4
NW4
W9
W10
W9
2 days
ago
N4
G9
N8
NE8
G11
NE7
G10
NE11
G15
NE9
G13
NE7
G10
E4
SE3
SE7
G10
SE7
G10
SE6
G9
SE7
G10
SE5
G10
SE5
G8
E4
SE4
SE4
G7
E4
G7
E5
G9
SE9
G15
SE13
G20
SE11
G20
E9
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY18 mi27 minE 810.00 miFair68°F53°F59%1011.8 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY22 mi25 minESE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F48°F52%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrN6N11N10NW7N7N5N4N3N4NE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE4CalmE3E7E6E7NE6NE8E8
1 day agoNE10E9NE9NE8NE9NE9NE8NE7NE7NE7NE6NE6NE6NE4NE6NE5NE5NE3CalmNW4W6N8N6N8
2 days agoN8N10
G14
W6N5NE9NE9NE6E5NE5E3E4SE5E4SE6SE5SE5SE7SE6E5NE7NE5NE7NE9E8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.