Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thousand Island Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:05PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:37 PM EDT (17:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:38AMMoonset 3:49PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 650 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Today..South winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny this morning, then increasing clouds.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Becoming mainly clear.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear...then becoming partly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thousand Island Park, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.27, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 171547
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1147 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will approach the area today with clouds thickening
from west to east. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will arrive
in western ny by late afternoon or early evening, and then
overspread the rest of the area tonight as the warm front moves
across the region. A few more scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop Friday and Saturday along with plenty of rain free
time. High pressure will then bring a return to dry weather for
Sunday and Monday.

Near term through tonight
An occluding surface low will track from wisconsin this morning to
eastern lake superior by late tonight, with a seasonably deep mid
level trough taking a similar track. A warm front downstream of the
low will approach western ny by late this afternoon before crossing
the region from southwest to northeast tonight. The warm front will
bring a period of isentropic upglide and moisture convergence, aided
by a 35-40 knot low level jet. A few weak, convectively augmented
mid level shortwaves will provide some additional forcing for
ascent. Strong moisture advection will boost pwat to around 2 inches
tonight.

The quality of forcing and moisture coming together continue to
support a high likelihood of showers along the warm frontal
boundary. Looking at regional mrms radar data, have adjusted the
timing forward by a couple of hours, with activity pushing into the
niagara frontier by mid afternoon and into the genesee valley by
early evening, then spreading into the eastern lake ontario region
through the early overnight. Some limited elevated instability will
develop along the warm front and support a few weak, embedded
thunderstorms. The high pwat environment will support heavy
downpours with any scattered storms that develop, but weak
instability and progressive nature of the pattern should prevent any
flooding issues despite the high pwat.

Temperatures will warm into the lower 80s in most locations today
prior to the arrival of thicker clouds and showers. Ongoing warm
advection and an increasing southerly breeze will keep temperatures
very mild tonight, with lows in the lower 70s on the lake plains of
western ny, and mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Dewpoints will surge
into the upper 60s to around 70 overnight, bringing a muggy feel to
the air.

Short term Friday through Sunday night
On Friday, a low pressure system will track northwest of the forecast
area with several weak boundaries and shortwaves crossing the
region. A prefrontal trough and weak shortwave will cross western ny
in the morning, ill-timed for much significant convection early in
the day. This will result in some showers with a few rumbles of
thunder over wny. However, as the trough tracks east of the genesee
valley by midday and the afternoon, thunderstorms will become
increasingly likely with diurnal heating coming into play. About 35
knots of 0-6km shear will accompany the roughly 1500j kg of cape,
which could result in a few stronger to possibly severe
thunderstorms developing. However, the weak forcing will likely
yield fairly isolated coverage of any stronger thunderstorms. Storms
will also be exiting the forecast area by the time the better
instability develops, resulting in perhaps only a stronger storm or
two developing east of rochester before exiting into binghamton's
forecast area. SPC matches this train of thought with the latest day
2 swo keeping the marginal threat for severe weather east of the
genesee valley into central and eastern ny.

However, western ny won't be completely out of the game for
thunderstorm potential on Friday. With diurnal heating after the
initial leading wave, lake breeze boundaries will develop southeast
of lake erie and ontario. As a secondary frontal boundary interacts
with the lake breezes, expect some scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop from near jamestown to batavia, and track
off to the east through the mid-late afternoon. A few additional
storms may also develop southeast of lake ontario from wayne county
to oswego county tracking off into central ny. This activity will
likely be broken in coverage and will not pose much of a severe
threat as the best shear and instability axis will be well to our
east by then. That said, can never rule out a pulse severe storm or
two when interacting with the lake breeze boundaries. High
temperatures on Friday will be near normal for this time of year, in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

By Friday night into Saturday, cold air advection in the wake of the
cold frontal passage will drop 850 mb temperatures to around
+10 +11c. With lake temperatures near 22c, this is marginally enough
for a lake response, however bufkit profiles suggest a fairly stout
inversion near 800 mb. Forecast models insist on generating some qpf
off the lakes overnight into Saturday morning, however given the low
inversion height it is more likely that this will manifest as some
low cloud cover. Have included just a low chance pop east of the
lakes. Also considered the potential for waterspouts on the lakes
Saturday morning, however with the low inversion height and marginal
lake-850mb temperatures there was just not enough confidence to
include the chance in the forecast. By Saturday afternoon any
lingering lake response clouds or showers will diminish with diurnal
heating coupled with weak warm advection ahead of another trough
approaching the lower great lakes. This trough axis will cross the
region Saturday afternoon and evening, bring some scattered showers.

Showers will die out Saturday evening with the trough axis pushing
east and the loss of diurnal heating.

High pressure will build through the ohio valley Sunday and Sunday
night brining drier and warm air into the region. Temperatures will
be coolest Saturday, with highs in the mid 70s to upper 70s, while
upper 70s to about 80 degree readings return on Sunday. Lows will be
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
Monday into the first half of Tuesday will bring fair weather with
building temperatures and humidity into mid week. A surface high
will move through pennsylvania on Monday before sliding off the mid-
atlantic coast on Tuesday. Return flow developing in the lee of the
surface high passage will result in 850 mb temperatures climbing to
+17 +18c by Tuesday afternoon, with dew points pushing the mid to
upper 60s. This will result in mid 80s readings Monday afternoon,
and mid to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon. The warmest temperatures
will be in the downslope areas of the genesee valley and northern
finger lakes, with the fairly moist soil conditions likely helping
keep any areas from reaching the 90 degree mark. With plenty of
attendant dry air subsidence also in place... This will allow for
mostly sunny mainly clear skies... Thereby resulting in near ideal
sky conditions for viewing of Monday's solar eclipse.

As we progress deeper into the new work week... Our weather still
looks to turn more unsettled again for later Tuesday and especially
Tuesday night... When the medium range guidance suggests that the
next upper level trough and associated cold front will move across
our region. Have continued to advertise broadbrush chance pops to
cover the passage of these features... With our area then drying out
from northwest to southeast on Wednesday following the frontal
passage. Following the passage of the cold front... Cooler and less
humid air will then spread back into our region on Wednesday... When
daytime highs will retreat back into the mid and upper 70s.

Aviation 16z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions are widespread across the forecast area this morning,
as all lingering valley fog rapidly dissipated after 12z. A look at
regional satellite imagery indicates high clouds beginning to spread
across western ny in advance of an approaching warm front. As this
front continues to press north into the lower great lakes, expect
widespread -shra sct -tsra to move into wny this afternoon, after
18z. Convective activity will continue to track ene across the
forecast area through the afternoon and evening hours, with a second
wave possible around 00z, as a pre-frontal trough crosses the area.

Conditions should initially remainVFR with developing -shra this
afternoon, with brief periods of MVFR ifr possible in heavier -
shra tsra. As the atmosphere becomes more saturated in the wake of
afternoon evening convection, we may see the development of MVFR
cigs, with ifr possible across the higher terrain of the southern
tier, after 06z. In addition, llws will become a concern after 03z,
as a LLJ strengthens over the area.

Outlook...

Friday... MVFR ifr CIGS improving to mainlyVFR with scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Sunday and Monday...VFR except for late night and early morning
valley fog with local ifr.

Marine
East winds will increase today ahead of a warm front over the upper
midwest. The strongest winds will be found on the west half of lake
ontario where choppy conditions will develop, although the greatest
wave action will be found in canadian waters. Winds will become
southerly tonight as the warm front moves northeast of the area,
again directing the greater wave action into canadian waters.

Low pressure will then move slowly from the western great lakes
Friday to southern quebec by Saturday. This will bring an increase
in winds to the eastern great lakes, with small craft advisory
conditions probable on Friday for lake erie, and Saturday for lake
ontario. Winds and waves will decrease by Sunday as high pressure
builds into the ohio valley and eastern great lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock wood
short term... Church
long term... Church
aviation... Wood
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 7 mi49 min 74°F1016.7 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 42 mi49 min 72°F 1016.7 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 61 mi49 min SE 8 G 11 76°F 1016.2 hPa47°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
N9
N10
N8
NW7
N5
G9
NE6
NW4
N2
SE2
S4
S5
S4
S3
S6
S5
SE6
SE7
SE7
S5
SE8
G11
SE7
G10
SE5
G9
SE9
G12
SE8
G12
1 day
ago
NW8
NW4
NW4
W7
W7
G11
W6
G9
SW6
G10
W6
G9
W4
G7
S4
S5
S5
S5
S3
NW6
N12
G15
NE14
G17
NE12
G18
NE14
G19
NE7
G13
N10
N9
N9
G12
N10
G13
2 days
ago
S7
G10
S7
G10
SE8
G13
S5
G10
S7
G10
SE6
G9
SE5
SE3
SE5
G8
S8
SE10
SE8
G12
SE9
G12
S8
G11
S7
G11
S8
G11
S6
S6
S3
S4
G7
S6
W7
G12
W8
NW7

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY18 mi41 minVar 410.00 miFair77°F55°F47%1016.4 hPa
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY22 mi39 minSSE 510.00 miFair74°F47°F38%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrN8NE6N84N7N4CalmCalmSE3SE4CalmCalmCalmE3E4E3E3E3CalmCalm3E3Calm4
1 day agoSW8W6W8SW7W8W5SW4S5S4CalmNE3CalmN3CalmNE5NE8NE6NE6NE9NE10N9N9NE8N5
2 days agoW8W10W7W7SW3CalmCalmE3SE3S5S5S4S6S5S5S5S7S5SW4SW7SW7SW6SW6SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.