Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tawas City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:57PM Sunday March 26, 2017 8:39 PM EDT (00:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:50AMMoonset 5:24PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 350 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming variable 10 knots or less. Rain showers early in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Light winds. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:201703270400;;120333 FZUS53 KAPX 261950 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 350 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LHZ349-270400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.27, -83.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 261938
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
338 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Near term (tonight through Monday)
issued at 339 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Drying out a little bit as we head into Monday...

high impact weather potential... None.

Decaying stacked low, presently over the wi/il border, will lift
slowly NE across lower mi tonight. Plenty of associated shower
activity across the region. The dying surface low will get left
behind Monday east of georgian bay, while the parent upper trof
heads for new england. Another southern stream system will eject
into the mid-ms and northern oh valleys on Monday. Precip trends are
the main concern.

Temps have warmed to at or above freezing in chip co, and in
addition they are seeing a short lull in precip. Temps will climb
another degree or two before stabilizing tonight. Will allow wint wx
advis for chip co to expire at 4 pm.

Tonight... Surface low will skip ne-ward across lower mi in the 1st
half of the night, then slow over northern lake huron overnight. We
remain in a favorable position for warm/moist 1000-700mb advection
to generate additional showers this evening. Continued height falls
at 500mb will only enhance those chances. Rain will thus be
reasonably widespread to start the night. Theta-e advection will be
cut off overnight as the system moves east. Some wraparound banded
structures are noted upstream across central upper mi, and as far
back as the mn arrowhead. Precip will these is neither widespread
nor heavy, and will become less so with time as the 500 and 700mb
closed circulation centers open up. Moisture remains abundant
overnight, so lots of cloud cover, but pops will dwindle into the
chancy category. Highest pops overnight in eastern upper mi, which
should be impacted by the ongoing central upper mi activity as it
eventually eases eastward.

Lots of low CIGS out there presently, and we won't flush that away.

With a lengthy period of light winds tonight as the low moves thru,
those CIGS will lower further, resulting in considerable fog.

Min temps won't be too far from current readings, in the 30s to
lower 40s.

Monday... System continues to move further away. Pressure gradient
behind the weakening system is unimpressive, so only a weak push of
cooler/drier low level air into the region. Still lots and lots of
cloud cover. Not a lot of forcing for precip, especially by
afternoon, though may yet be some lingering deformation in eastern
upper mi. Nonetheless, lingering chancy pops in the morning will
diminish to slight chance or less in the afternoon. Fog and/or
drizzle could also be prevalent, especially in the morning, before
diurnal effects take hold.

Max temps in the 40s to lower 50s.

Short term (Monday night through Wednesday)
issued at 339 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Surface low currently in the southern
plains, moves across the ohio valley Monday night. Meanwhile high
pressure builds into mi from south central canada.

Primary forecast concerns... The low will bring an area of
precipitation into southern mi Monday night. Question is how much
northward moisture transport occurs out ahead of the fast moving low
for our region. Best lift between 00z and 12z Tuesday as upper
trough and left entrance region of upper jet moves through the
region. Model trend has been to keep the precipitation mostly south
of our area. Right now looks like at least the chance of some
rainfall for northern lower and little chance for eastern upper.

Surface temperatures mostly stay above freezing so no icing is
expected, but could be some snow mixing in north. Precipitation
moves out by midday.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 339 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
only concern in the extended period is another storm moving out of
the southern plains that reaches mi Thursday. Right now, this storm
tracks a bit farther north than the Monday storm with a better
chance of precipitation for our area. Temperatures on the north edge
of the precipitation-zone will be marginal/near freezing for this
next system. So will have to keep an eye on precipitation-type
problems for Thursday night and Friday night.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 142 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
mainly ifr.

Low pressure in NW il continues to slowly approach, and will cross
lower mi tonight. This system will be weakening with time, but
abundant moisture is already in place. Showers and ifr CIGS are
common, and for a period tonight expect fog to become prevalent
(as winds diminish). The system will move off to our east Monday,
with some gradual improvement (especially in vsbys), though more
rapid improvement will wait until after 18z Monday.

Easterly breezes will go light/variable this evening, with a
light NW breeze Monday morning.

Marine
Issued at 339 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
winds/waves will tend to diminish tonight, as low pressure crosses
the region from SW to ne. System will be weakening with time, so
trailing NW winds on Monday will be unimpressive. Precip chances
will diminish with time into Monday. Fog will be seen in spots
tonight, then also diminish on Monday.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for miz008.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for lhz345>348.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jz
short term... Kjf
long term... Kjf
aviation... Jz
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 4 mi59 min NE 4.1 G 8.9 38°F 1012.2 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 17 mi119 min NNE 9.9 G 11 35°F 1012.9 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 34 mi39 min NNE 8.9 G 8.9 35°F 1011.5 hPa (+0.0)
KP58 42 mi48 min SSE 7 45°F 1012 hPa44°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last
24hr
E3
G7
E8
E10
G13
E7
G10
E6
E7
E8
E9
E9
E11
E6
SE2
E2
E7
E4
NE6
E3
NE2
NE6
E2
SE2
SE9
SE11
G14
S13
G16
1 day
ago
N10
N6
N9
N10
G13
N10
G13
N11
NE13
NE13
N14
NE15
NE15
NE17
NE17
NE18
NE16
NE17
NE16
G20
NE15
NE15
NE12
G15
NE14
G17
NE8
E8
E4
2 days
ago
SE16
SE17
S17
S16
G21
S16
SE16
G20
S11
S13
G16
S7
G10
SE10
SE10
SE4
S12
SE8
E7
E5
W11
G17
NE9
NE3
N5
N15
N12
G17
N7
G10
N11
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI15 mi45 minN 02.00 miUnknown Precip38°F37°F97%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hrE10NE14
G20
NE10E8E8
G15
NE7NE10E6E6E7E6E5E6E5E6E6E5E5CalmNE5E5E3CalmCalm
1 day agoNE8NE9NE10NE11NE6NE10NE8NE8NE11NE11NE13
G17
NE15
G18
NE13
G18
NE12
G19
NE15
G20
NE15
G19
NE15
G19
E12
G20
NE13NE15NE16NE12
G15
E8NE9
2 days agoS12S9
G16
S6SE6SE8S6S5N4E3N3S6S8S5S7SW6SW3NE6E4SE3N9N7NE12NE7N6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.