Tuesday, January23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tawas City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:37PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 2:48 AM EST (07:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:27AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LHZ349 1039 Pm Edt Sat Oct 7 2017
.line of showers approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Presque isle light to sturgeon pt mi including Thunder bay national marine sanctuary... Sturgeon pt to alabaster mi... At 1039 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a line of showers...capable of producing winds up to 33 knots. These showers were located along a line extending from 17 nm west of greenbush to white stone point... Moving northeast at 55 knots. Locations impacted include... Tawas bay...black river...east tawas...greenbush...thunder bay... Sturgeon point...au sable point...harrisville...oscoda...tawas point and south point. Lat...lon 4418 8363 4430 8358 4436 8341 4473 8336 4485 8339 4486 8343 4487 8331 4494 8344 4500 8347 4501 8343 4508 8338 4503 8328 4515 8334 4522 8327 4495 8322 4493 8325 4485 8320 4474 8319 4438 8323 4418 8343
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LHZ349 Expires:201710080330;;530735 FZUS73 KAPX 080239 MWSAPX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1039 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017 LHZ348-349-080330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
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location: 44.27, -83.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 230500
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1200 am est Tue jan 23 2018

Update
Issued at 931 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
another round of moderate to heavy precip is lifting across
northern lower mi presently. This is moving into areas that have
had the highest (known) amounts of freezing rain thus far, with
our co-op observer in petoskey at 0.22 of ice as of 8 pm. Surface
temps are slowly falling, now at 28 29f in much of cheboygan emmet
cos. And bufr soundings very much emphasize that fzra will be the
primary p-type over the tip of northern lower mi until after
2 3am.

So confidence is high that this next batch of precip will push at
least those two counties past warning criteria for ice accums
(0.25"). It is very much debatable as to whether a headline
upgrade is actually worth it; they've had wintry precip up there
since noon, and in a few more hours, this event is largely over.

On the other hand, it is slowly getting colder at the surface, and
with even a brief burst of heavy precip incoming, that has to
have an impact. Freezing rain is a very different animal at 28f
(cheboygan) than it is at 32f (glr).

So did indeed upgrade those two counties to a warning. Note that
an 'ice storm warning' headline would be by-the-book the most
appropriate. But feel that would be overkill from a public-
perception standpoint, and a winter storm warning should get the
point across sufficiently.

There is one more round of moderate precip rates potentially
ahead. That is a few hours either side of daybreak, as central and
nw lower mi get clipped by deformation-forced precip on the north
edge of the 500mb 700mb closed lows that pass to our south. We
should be wiping out the warm nose right about then, so this is
primarily a less impactful rain-snow issue.

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 337 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
stacked low pressure now in iowa this afternoon with the warm
front still making some progress north from SRN lower michigan.

The deepest moisture and strongest forcing, driven primarily by
waa and upper divergence, was pressing through far NRN lower
michigan and into eastern upper. Moderate to heavy snows were
ongoing in this area while freezing rain sleet were falling just
to the south of there underneath the elevated above freezing
layer. In areas further south of there, the influx of warmer air
was changing things over to rain with precipitation intensity
lessening as deeper moisture is starting to strip due to the onset
of dry-slotting.

The low pressure will continue a track to the ene and cross nrn
michigan into Tuesday morning, with the deeper moisture in
deformation on the backside of the system wrapping into the region
while cold advection ensues. The strong forcing currently pushing
through far NRN lower and eastern upper will likely shift north of
these areas, but some moderate precipitation rates are likely to
continue at times across eastern upper as they will be closer to
the better forcing and deeper moisture. In NRN lower, moisture
remains more stripped out aloft and periods of drizzle and
freezing drizzle (across the far NRN lower and far NW lower) will
be more common as the depth of the low level moisture is all under
-10c for much of the night. As the low pressure crosses late
tonight into tomorrow morning, the winds turn more northerly and
begin drawing colder air into NRN michigan and shoves the elevated
warm nose off to the east. This process will gradually change
precipitation to a period of just snow, which will bring some
light accumulations of snow, maybe 1 or 2 inches across mainly nrn
lower. Tuesday afternoon things will start to dry out enough to
where precipitation ends from west to east, with the exception of
n nnw flow regimes, as instability grows over lakes superior and
michigan. Only a small slight chance as the depth of the
instability and moisture is very shallow.

Lows tonight in cold advection, falling into the teens in eastern
upper, while areas closer to saginaw bay ("warmest" air) will hold
in the lower and middle 30s. Temperatures keep falling through
Tuesday, into the 10 to 15f range in eastern upper to the lower
20s near saginaw bay.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 337 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Short les period, then quiet through Thursday...

high impact weather potential... Minimal
pattern synopsis forecast... The sfc low moves into southern quebec
by 00z wed, and continues to move to the NE into the canadian
maritimes. This leaves the upper great lakes in a north flow pattern
for the evening of Tuesday (00z wed-06z wed). 850 mb temperatures
fall to around -10c with the water temperatures in lakes superior
and michigan around +2c to +3c we will be marginal for lake snow but
it is possible, so have some pops in for the early part of evening,
but dry things out as the winds continue to move and the
temperatures warm a degree or two, and the 850-700 mb layer rh
remains below 40%. So will expect that the snow will taper off, to
at most flurries, and keep Wednesday dry. Wednesday evening, only
the GFS has any chance of snow, with all of the other models
considerably warmer at 850 mb with the wnw flow. If anything fell
it would be minor, but will leave Wednesday night dry. Subsidence
fights the warm front, and 850 mb moisture. The models skew toward
the low to mid-level moisture being clouds keeping the region dry.

So will keep the day dry.

Primary forecast concerns... Issues are the les, not that it could be
more, but that it will be less. It seems that the pattern is not
cold enough, for a lot of instability over the lakes for les.

Otherwise, as the "warm front" moves through, the enhancement may
actually get something going, but with the consensus of the models
(gfs ECMWF nam sref) going dry as the front moves through, will keep
it dry as well.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 337 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
as high pressure moves to our east, a brief period of warm advection
will bring above normal temperatures over the weekend. A cold front
attendant to low pressure passing to our north could bring some
precipitation over the weekend, with temperatures supporting rain or
a wintry mix during warmer afternoon hours. Cold air filtering in
behind that front will bring some lake effect chances as we begin
next week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1159 pm est Mon jan 22 2018
wintry mix to diminish and eventually end on Tuesday.

Mature 998mb surface low is about 30sm sse of mbl, and will cross
central northern lower mi over the next several hours. Widespread
ifr to at times lifr conditions, though precip has become lighter
and less widespread. Still, stratus drizzle freezing drizzle fog.

A few more rounds of showery-type wx will occur into Tuesday
morning, with precip eventually morphing to primarily snow before
it ends during the day. MVFR CIGS will linger after that.

Gusty NE winds will back to the north late tonight thru Tuesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 5 am est Tuesday for miz008-015-
018-019-021>024.

Winter storm warning until 5 am est Tuesday for miz016-017.

Update... Jz
near term... Smd
short term... Jl
long term... Am
aviation... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 17 mi40 min SE 8 G 8 44°F 998 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 34 mi48 min E 1 G 2.9 39°F 996.6 hPa (-1.7)
KP58 42 mi57 min SE 4.1 37°F 996.8 hPa36°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI15 mi53 minN 00.25 miFog34°F34°F99%997.3 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E6E5NE8NE13NE14NE14
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1 day agoSW3CalmCalmSW3CalmSW4SW6SW5SW7
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2 days agoW8SW7SW7SW4SW5SW6SW6SW10SW7SW7SW7SW8W7SW7SW4SW3SW3SW3SW3CalmS3SW4SW3SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.