Monday, April23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tawas City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:30PM Monday April 23, 2018 11:01 PM EDT (03:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:26PMMoonset 2:24AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LHZ349 1039 Pm Edt Sat Oct 7 2017
.line of showers approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Presque isle light to sturgeon pt mi including Thunder bay national marine sanctuary... Sturgeon pt to alabaster mi... At 1039 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a line of showers...capable of producing winds up to 33 knots. These showers were located along a line extending from 17 nm west of greenbush to white stone point... Moving northeast at 55 knots. Locations impacted include... Tawas bay...black river...east tawas...greenbush...thunder bay... Sturgeon point...au sable point...harrisville...oscoda...tawas point and south point. Lat...lon 4418 8363 4430 8358 4436 8341 4473 8336 4485 8339 4486 8343 4487 8331 4494 8344 4500 8347 4501 8343 4508 8338 4503 8328 4515 8334 4522 8327 4495 8322 4493 8325 4485 8320 4474 8319 4438 8323 4418 8343
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LHZ349 Expires:201710080330;;530735 FZUS73 KAPX 080239 MWSAPX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1039 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017 LHZ348-349-080330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
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location: 44.27, -83.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240054
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
854 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018

Update
Issued at 849 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018
high level moisture continues to stream north from low pressure
centered over the tennessee valley. Thickening high clouds the
result, with skies trending partly cloudy across much of the area.

Mid and low level moisture will be much slower to arrive, likely
taking to near sunrise to push into areas down near saginaw bay.

Still appears any light shower activity will wait until after
sunrise Tuesday to arrive (and once again, only for areas down
near saginaw bay). Those increasing clouds will prevent
temperatures from falling too much, this despite still very dry
low levels. Inherited lows in the 30s to lower 40s still appears
reasonable.

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 345 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018

Chances for showers Tuesday...

primary forecast concern... Rain shower timing and chances Tuesday.

Increasing mid high clouds tonight should keep it on the mild side
with lows in the middle 30s to lower 40s expected. The combination
of low pressure moving by to our south and a surface cold front
approaching from the northwest will increase shower chances Tuesday.

Lots of dry air to overcome at lower levels so northern zones will
have a hard time moistening up enough to produce rain showers.

Farther south across much of northern lower (perhaps minus the tip
of the mitt) moisture is deeper so there will likely be at least a
few showers around in the afternoon. Highs Tuesday ranging from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 345 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018

Midweek (mostly) rain threat with drier milder weather Thursday...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: current split flow pattern across the
conus with a southern branch upper low spinning its way across the
tennessee valley... With the great lakes stuck in between this low
and stronger northern branch flow across southern portions of
saskatchewan manitoba and northern ontario. Decent looking northern
branch disturbance emerging from the northern rockies and into the
high plains this afternoon... With another northern branch short wave
trough farther upstream over northern saskatchewan. It is this
latter piece of energy that will swing southeast and across michigan
Tuesday night Wednesday... Followed by a stronger disturbance digging
southeast and likely impacting michigan in the Thursday night Friday
time period.

Surface cold front stretched out across northwest ontario will lie
across michigan Tuesday Tuesday night... Surface high pressure builds
southeast behind the front Wednesday which will allow for northerly
boundary layer flow to push cooler air into northern michigan. This
will likely be reinforced by another cold front attendant to
following short wave trough Friday.

Primary forecast concerns: deep layer moisture will be across the
forecast area associated with two systems Tuesday night... Some
getting pulled northward from southern branch upper low... And some
from northern saskatchewan short wave trough. Plan on lingering
moisture and precipitation chances longer into Wednesday across far
eastern upper northeast lower than depicted by the quicker GFS and
especially nam-wrf. Anticipating drying Wednesday evening with more
widespread sunshine for Thursday. After our recent spell of
seasonably mild temperatures... Highs likely to return to the 40s for
Wednesday... Then back into the 50s (and probably some lower 60s) for
Thursday afternoon.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 345 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018
a relatively sharp cold front will drop down from canada to kick off
the start of the extended period... With passage in the Thursday
night through Friday time frame. The precip will likely be all
liquid... But this front is looking like it may drag down enough cold
air that a few snowflakes shouldn't be ruled out... Particularly
should the precip line up with the diurnal cycle and occur at night.

Some straggling moisture may linger into Saturday... But the drying
trend should commence and last into Monday. A temporary dip to
cooler than normal readings can be expected at the start of the
period... But temperatures will moderate through the second half of
the weekend, back to seasonal by Monday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 711 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018
some changes expected as area of deeper moisture gradually rotates
north later tonight into Tuesday.VFR conditions under a slowly
lowering and increasing cloud deck tonight, with the potential for
MVFR CIGS arriving Tuesday, especially at kapn. Light rain showers
also possible, but will exclude these from this forecast at this
time. Light winds through the duration.

Marine
Issued at 345 pm edt Mon apr 23 2018
as low pressure lifts thru the ohio valley Tuesday night... Winds
will increase and likely reach SCA criteria Tuesday night across
the western great lakes between this low and high pressure over
minnesota.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... mb
near term... As
short term... Jpb
long term... Kb
aviation... mb
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 4 mi81 min NE 6 G 13 46°F 1022 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 17 mi81 min N 12 G 14 42°F 1022 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 34 mi61 min NE 15 G 16 42°F 1020 hPa (+0.0)
KP58 42 mi70 min ESE 6 47°F 1021.6 hPa35°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI15 mi66 minNE 310.00 miFair44°F28°F54%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmE5E5E5E6E5E6E6NE5NE9NE6NE4NE4N3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3E4SE5E7E5E4E5E4E3E3NE3Calm
2 days agoSW3CalmCalmSW4SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW7SW4SW6S6SE8SE7SE7SE7E6S6SE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.