Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tawas City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:58PM Monday March 27, 2017 12:25 PM EDT (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:22AMMoonset 6:34PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 1118 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Today..Light winds. Slight chance of showers in the late morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Areas of fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:201703272330;;163063 FZUS53 KAPX 271518 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1118 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LHZ349-272330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
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location: 44.27, -83.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 271358
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
958 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Update
Issued at 958 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
low clouds and reduced visibilities this morning are improving
quickly as drier air slowly works into northern mi. The drier air
is moving in slowly behind a cold front that moved through
earlier this morning. 12z kapx sounding shows pretty saturated
atmosphere to around 800mb this morning with low levels all above
freezing. Line of showers across the eastern up this morning, seem
to have generated along a 850mb front in the nearly saturated low
levels.

Low pressure that moved across mi last night is over lake huron.

Numerous weak boundaries/wind shift lines eminate from the low.

Dynamics are pretty weak and with drier air working in expect
nothing more than a few showers, mainly confined to the up through
the day. High clouds moving in from low in mo will keep skies
cloudy today, even if low clouds burn off. Temperatures will have
a hard time rising much today as well.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 348 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Diminishing precipitation today...

high impact weather potential... Minor light icing in eastern upper
michigan early on.

Pattern synopsis/forecast... Filing stacked low pressure system is
tracking up through lower michigan early this morning... Remaining
axis of deformation precip arcs through ontario and back across
eastern/central upper michigan and has been diminishing through
the overnight hours. Meanwhile... Still some spotty showers ongoing
across northern lower michigan. Upstream, another wave/surface low
is moving northeastward through oklahoma and will be tracking
through the lower lakes region tonight.

Today: surface low continues to weaken and track eastward out of
the state. Associated weakening deformation axis/remaining light
precip slides through the region this morning... With gradually
diminishing pops. Some light fzra remains a possibility in eastern
upper, although given quickly diminishing radar returns, any
icing will be minor at this point. Trailing secondary cold front
slides down through northern michigan later in the day and there
may be another band of light showers slide through upper michigan
later in the day into this evening. Otherwise, a good amount fog
remains out there with many locations under 1sm vsby. Not quite
enough to warrant an dense fog advisory, although an sps
highlighting fog seems prudent.

Tonight: upstream short wave/attending surface low will track
through the ohio valley... A little further south than previous
forecasts and appears that precip with this system will miss
northern michigan. So... Other than some light precip possibilities
across upper michigan... Will have a dry forecast.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 348 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Mainly quiet with slightly above normal temps through midweek...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern forecast: fairly zonal flow aloft is expected at the start
of the period (Tuesday) across the eastern two-thirds of the conus,
along with canadian high pressure sagging into the northern great
lakes. The only wrinkle being for a pronounced shortwave and
associated developing surface low across the ohio valley. At the
same time, a large scale buckle in the jet stream is evident across
the intermountain west, which is progged to result in cyclogenesis
lee of the rockies on Wednesday before ejecting toward the great
lakes Thursday into Friday. This is expected to provide the next
threat for sensible weather across northern michigan before high
pressure returns once again next weekend.

Primary forecast concerns: aforementioned surface low across the
ohio valley Monday night into Tuesday is expected to stay well south
of the area as high pressure sags into the region from the north and
impedes much northward-moving moisture transport. Perhaps a few
sprinkles survive their way into the far southern portions of the
cwa (south of m-55); however if current trends continue... Gut
feeling that we stay precipitation-free. Otherwise, northern
michigan continues to sit on the southern periphery of high pressure
through at least midweek, ultimately leading to little in the way of
forecast concerns through Thursday. The main story will likely be
increasing sunshine and near to slightly above normal temperatures
across the area with high temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to
low 50s... Some 5-10 degrees above the climatological normals of 39
at anj to 44 at tvc.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 348 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
main concern through the extended forecast period focuses around the
Thursday through Friday timeframe as developing low pressure across
the central/southern plains ejects northeastward toward the great
lakes. Deterministic/ensemble model agreement results in a fairly
high confidence forecast with respect to precipitation arriving late
in the day Thursday/Thursday night through Friday; however, as is so
often the case at this timeframe... The details (mainly p-type and
northward extent of precipitation) remain a bit fuzzy. Worth
monitoring in future outlooks as marginal temperatures across the
northern half of the area may result in mixed precip concerns,
especially Thursday night.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 639 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
ifr conditions due to low CIGS and fog will continue to dominate
across northern lower michigan for the next several hours. Fog
will slowly diminish... But it will take until afternoon before
cigs get back up above 1k feet.

Much improved vsbys tonight although CIGS may dip back down to
around or below 1k feet. But drier air overspreads the region late
tonight through Tuesday... Which will ultimately bring big
improvement for Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 348 am edt Mon mar 27 2017
winds/waves expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria through Tuesday. Rather foggy conditions on the lakes
this morning. Fog will gradually dissipate as we go through the
day.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Kjf
near term... Tba
short term... Mjg
long term... Mjg
aviation... Tba
marine... Tba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 4 mi46 min WSW 4.1 G 7 46°F 1011.9 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 17 mi46 min SW 8.9 G 11 45°F 1012.9 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 34 mi26 min WSW 14 G 15 43°F 1011.9 hPa (+1.1)
KP58 42 mi35 min W 9.9 51°F 1011.6 hPa48°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI15 mi32 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast48°F46°F97%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5CalmNE5E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6CalmSW3CalmCalmSW5CalmSW3
1 day agoNE15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.