Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tawas City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:21PM Monday June 18, 2018 1:16 PM EDT (17:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:25AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 1033 Am Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Today..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon becoming variable 10 knots or less. Patchy fog through the day. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:201806182245;;729039 FZUS53 KAPX 181433 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1033 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ349-182245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
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location: 44.27, -83.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181703
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
103 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Update
Issued at 1033 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
main cold front is still poised just to the NW of our CWA late
this morning... With the initial push of cold air mainly south of
our cwa. Remaining area of nocturnal convection is making its way
eastward thru our CWA right now. Most if not all thunder has
ended... Leaving only steady light to at times moderate rainfall
impact our area. This precip will continue to move thru over the
next several hours... But overall push of precip will be southward
as the upstream cold front leans into northern lower michigan
throughout the afternoon. Have made some adjustments to pops... But
overall flavor of the forecast remains cloudy and rainy thru early
afternoon with overall improving conditions from north to south
toward late afternoon evening. While temps will be noticeably
cooler this afternoon... Humidity will hold on thru the day with
diminishing rh taking place tonight into Tuesday.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 308 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
impactful weather: maybe a few non-severe thunderstorms with a cold
frontal passage today.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
the mid level ridging that has been overhead was starting to get
suppressed by a shortwave trough dropping SE out of south central
canada. This has been forcing the main channel of vort maxes
southward from the central plains through wisconsin and nrn
michigan, underneath an elongated LLJ and moisture feed axis which
was positioned ahead of a cold front. This was resulting in a large
corridor of showers and isolated thunderstorms, aided by right
entrance region upper divergence from 120+kt upper jet laid out
across the eastern half of canada. The better winds aloft have aided
in overall bulk shear, but low to mid level lapse rates have been
gradually becoming less steep resulting in loss of mucape. Behind
the canadian shortwave, sfc high pressure was centered over srn
alberta and saskatchewan.

The train of individual vort maxes shortwaves and LLJ moisture
transport axis ahead of the cold front will continue to bring rounds
of showers and isolated thunderstorms to primarily NRN lower this
morning. The aforementioned canadian shortwave was continue to press
se through the day and night, essentially shoving all forcing and
showers southward from later this morning through this afternoon. A
weakening LLJ and upper divergence (departing upper jet) through the
day, ought to result in a gradual decrease in areal coverage and
intensity of the convection. Maybe some remnant showers will still
be around near along the m-55 corridor into this evening. Not
thrilled too much with thunder, as instability is expected to
continue to slowly wane through the day. The sfc high pressure with
the greatest drying clearing will work it's way into lake superior
late tonight.

There is some concern that the back end of the cold front's
southward progress gets held up into later in the night. This due to
a closed upper low in the rockies that wants to continue to pump
more shortwave energy NE into the midwest. This could mean some
overrunning WAA showers clouds could possibly linger around longer
into tonight in the vicinity of manistee.

Highs today in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with lows tonight in the
50s, coolest across eastern upper in weakest winds and best
clearing.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 308 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
high impact weather potential: none
pattern synopsis forecast: the cold front that moved through the
state Monday will continue to sag south through the eastern CONUS as
high pressure drops south out of canada. The encroaching cooler air
behind the front will continue to dampen the ridging that has been
building over the eastern conus, and keep the more warm and humid
airmass suppressed to our south. A potent shortwave is expected to
develop over the central plains by mid-week, possibly lifting into
the great lakes over the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns: weather will be quiet through mid-week,
and into the weekend, as high pressure settles in behind the cold
front. With a cooler and drier air mass moving in, temperatures will
run much closer to normal, though still slightly above. We should
see lake effect development, which may kick off a random shower or
two, but the next real chance for showers won't come until the
arrival of the shortwave over the weekend.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 308 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
with high pressure overhead until late in the week, the weather will
remain warm and quiet. The next chance of rain will come over the
weekend, as a system lifts out of the plains and through the great
lakes. There is surprisingly decent agreement in long term solutions
for arrival on Saturday, considering this will a cutoff low over the
plains. Timing may need adjustments here and there, but the blend
pops for Saturday look good.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 103 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018
residual showers will gradually diminish from NW to SE thru the
afternoon as a cold front presses southward thru northern lower
michigan. MVFR ifr conditions will slowly improve as showers come
to an end in response to building subsidence and dry air pushing
into our area in the wake of the cold front.VFR conditions are
expected for most of tonight and Tuesday as high pressure and
drier air continue to build into the region. N NW winds AOB 10 kts
this afternoon and tonight will become easterly on Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 308 am edt Mon jun 18 2018
still no major marine concerns for several days, outside of some
continued areas of fog through this morning, while still in a
warm humid air mass. A cold front associated with the current
corridor of showers and isolated storms impacting lake michigan and
huron will drop from north to south through the day, and skies will
gradually be decreasing in clouds later this afternoon and tonight,
mainly in the NRN nearshore waters. There is some concern that
clouds and a chance for additional showers can linger around longer
in the SRN nearshores, particularly point betsie to sleeping bear
point. This pattern looks to continue into Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... Smd
short term... Am
long term... Am
aviation... Mr
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 4 mi37 min WSW 4.1 G 8.9 75°F 1012.9 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 17 mi37 min SW 8.9 G 13 76°F 1012.9 hPa
45163 20 mi37 min W 3.9 G 3.9 74°F 71°F1 ft
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 34 mi77 min W 5.1 G 7 75°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.0)
KP58 42 mi26 min W 8 80°F 1010.8 hPa71°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI15 mi22 minWSW 11 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F70°F78%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW9S6S4S7W6W4S6S5SW4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW5SW5SW7SW8SW8SW9S6
2 days agoE6SE6E4SE6E6S5SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6S3CalmCalmCalmS3SW6
G11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.