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Marine Weather and Tides
Version 3.4 |
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported. 5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive. 5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds. |
| Sunrise 6:46AM | Sunset 8:30PM | Monday August 21, 2017 1:58 PM EDT (17:58 UTC) | Moonrise 5:27AM | Moonset 7:35PM | Illumination 0% |  |
Marine Forecasts
EDIT (on/off) Help| LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 1010 Am Edt Mon Aug 21 2017 Today..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Patchy fog. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5. | LHZ349 Expires:201708212215;;725868 FZUS53 KAPX 211410 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1010 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ349-212215- |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
Hourly EDIT Helplocation: 44.27, -83.52 debug
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
(on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition| Fxus63 kapx 211742 afdapx area forecast discussion national weather service gaylord mi 142 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017 Update Issued at 1105 am edt Mon aug 21 2017 it took all... Night... Long, but isolated sct convection finally developed toward dawn over far northern lower mi. That convective cluster is now pushing into georgian bay. Associated outflow boundary tails off toward apn, and a few wanna-be sprinkles showers are seen percolating along said boundary. This is also the primary location of low mid clouds, along with some marine stratus in and near the south shore of upper mi. Otherwise, cirrus from upstream convection is entering northern lower mi. That (and cu) will be our primary cloud coverage issue during the eclipse this afternoon. The boundary hanging back across NE lower mi (and interactions with the lk huron lake breeze) is an obvious trigger mechanism to get convection going this afternoon. Last couple of runs of the hrrr have picked up on this, developing vigorous convection just w and SW of apn beginning between 19z and 21z. Recent rap runs are vaguely similar. Further west, decaying convection from wi and associated forcing will support a shower maybe tsra threat, but the lake shadow from lake mi will result in less instability there (especially west of us-131). Greater apn area actually has a considerable amount of shear available, with 45kt west winds at 500mb late today, and 10kt sw winds below 850mb. 0-6km shear is a very healthy 50kt near apn, tailing off rapidly to the sw. Pooling moisture near the boundaries, and surface dew points running well into the 60s, will support MLCAPE values of 1-1.5k j kg. That is more than enough shear instability for supercells, with a wide gamut of svr types possible (though over a small area spatially and temporally). Have coordinated with spc, who anticipate expanding the marginal risk area across much of northern lower mi with the 1630z update to the day 1 svr outlook. Near term (today through tonight) issued at 336 am edt Mon aug 21 2017 high impact weather potential: chances for thunderstorms. Maybe a severe storms south of m-32 late this afternoon into this evening. Pattern synopsis and forecast: early this morning, a cold front was poised just NW of the cwa, draped from eastern lake superior back through wisconsin. Only some isolated showers were seen along and ahead of this front, as forcing was minimal with weak WAA under less than expected low level winds llj, which were more focused back into western iowa. This is where the better showers and storms resided. Further upstream, a shortwave trough was seen working SE through saskatchewan with additional showers and storms in the dakotas. The front is expected to sneak into the CWA this morning, but will likely get masked by developing lake breezes in light low level flow. Dew points are already in the lower to middle 60s, with additional low level moisture set to move in through afternoon and evening. This moisture will be drawn in by increasing winds out ahead of developing low pressure on the front in wisconsin. This low pressure then crosses across the nrn CWA eastern upper by Tuesday morning with winds in the middle of switching from SW to NW rather quickly. The difficult part of the forecast is in the evolution of showers and storms, and the potential for a severe storm or two. Can see an isolated shower drifting into NRN michigan with the front this morning, then it's looking like pretty good daytime heating at least through the morning hours, especially considering the current diminishment of clouds. Cumulus will be firing off by eclipse time, but maybe, possibly, there will be better viewing than earlier anticipated. We would also need for higher level blowoff from iowa thunderstorms to not spread into NRN michigan. Now for the showers and storms. Chances will be increasing into this afternoon and especially tonight as the low pressure passes by. We actually generate as much as 900j kg in eastern upper this afternoon and 1700j kg in NRN lower. We will have the front in the vicinity, along with lake breezes for low level wind convergence, albeit weak. Also, we will have steeper mid level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 c km, but the kicker for seeing showers and storms at least for the afternoon, will be the need of some wiggle shortwave MCV in the flow aloft, which we do start to get as the canada upper troughing sharpens and dives into the upper mississippi valley. The gtv bay region remains under a marginal risk for a severe storm or two with the main threat damaging winds. With the amount of instability around, which is fairly good for NRN michigan this summer, later this afternoon and evening is probably the most likely time. This despite strongest forcing (increased frontal convergence, upper divergence, dpva and llj) arriving tonight, due to loss of heating and expectation for mucapes going down through the night. Highs in the lower to middle 80s most areas and muggy. Truly a summer day. Lows in the 60s again tonight as the more cooler air will not arrive until through the day Tuesday. Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday) issued at 336 am edt Mon aug 21 2017 Cooler and less active weather returns... high impact weather potential: lingering thunderstorms and pockets of heavier rain diminishes Tuesday morning. |
Pattern forecast: low pressure progged to be across the northern great lakes Monday night will continue to rapidly deepen as it treks northeastward toward quebec Tuesday morning. Chances for showers storms continue locally early Tuesday morning before the system's attendant cold front exits... Ushering in a cooler and much drier air for Tuesday afternoon. Primary forecast concerns challenges: focus revolves around lingering showers and thunderstorms Tuesday morning. Fairly decent guidance consistency in progging the aforementioned cold front to be roughly along a line extending from alpena to manistee by mid- morning Tuesday. As is typical, a sharp instability moisture gradient along the front will lead to widely varied pops across northern michigan. Highest across the southeastern half of the area... Diminishing to the north west. Lingering rumbles of thunder ahead of the front seems feasible as guidance continues to prog 300- 700 j kg of MLCAPE across the southeastern tier of the cwa... In conjunction with deeper moisture (mid-60s dew points), area of steeper mid-level lapse rates and western periphery of the low- level theta-e ridge. However, the threat for thunder (and showers) quickly diminishes as the front rapidly pushes east, clearing the forecast area by midday early afternoon. Would not be all too shocked to see a stray post-frontal afternoon shower develop as a result of diurnal processes, but by in large, Tuesday afternoon is trending much less active than the previous 24 hours. Noticeably less humid and cooler conditions for the remainder of Tuesday with increasingly gusty northwest winds and afternoon high temps topping out in the low 70s for most. Early Wednesday, a well-defined lobe of energy pinwheels around the stacked low now over quebec, pushing a secondary cold front and associated band of enhanced moisture across northern michigan. A few scattered light showers could result, mainly over eastern upper, tip of the mitt, and far northwest lower. Otherwise, even cooler temperatures will headline the midweek portion of the forecast with high temps varying from the low-mid 60s north to the upper 60s to 70 degrees elsewhere... Some 10 or so degrees below normal for the third week of august. Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday) issued at 336 am edt Mon aug 21 2017 high impact weather potential: none. Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated for the majority of the extended forecast period as sprawling surface high pressure dominates the mid-section of the conus. One final upper level wave rounds the base of the trough anchored across the eastern third of the CONUS on Thursday, but locally with little more than a reinforcing shot of cool air aloft. Heights begin to rise Thursday night through the weekend ahead of the next system ramping up across the northern central plains. Plenty of guidance spread this far out, but it seems as if the next threat for precip won't arrive until late in the weekend or early the following week week. Continued cool temperatures are certain to be primary focus challenge with highs in the mid-upper 60s Thursday before gradually warming into the low-mid 70s to end the week. Chilly overnight lows Wednesday night through Friday night look like a good bet as high pressure overhead leads to mainly clear skies light winds and decent radiational cooling. Some upper 30s and an early taste of fall seems feasible in the typically cooler interior spots. Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon) issued at 142 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017 showers widespread few t-storms overnight. MVFR to ifr late tonight early Tue morning. Low pressure in nebraska will move NE along a front that is currently draped across northern mi. A few showers t-storms will fire thru mid evening, especially near apn. More widespread activity expected overnight as the low approaches. CIGS perhaps vsbys will eventually lower to MVFR-ifr levels. Rain ends NW to se as low departs and cold front GOES thru Tue morning. Light W to SW winds today tonight. NW winds becoming gusty toward midday Tuesday. Marine Issued at 336 am edt Mon aug 21 2017 a frontal zone will remain draped out across the region today resulting in a weak pressure gradient. Winds increase tonight, out ahead of low pressure which rides east along the front and across nrn michigan. Some low end advisory speeds are possible as early as late tonight, but a more solid chance at advisory level winds will be for Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Chances for showers and storms start mainly this afternoon, but become more likely tonight into Tuesday morning. There is a chance for a severe storms south of m-32 late this afternoon and this evening with damaging winds being the main threat. The front will be crossing late tonight into Tuesday morning and a fairly quick shift from SW to NW is expected. Apx watches warnings advisories Mi... None. Lh... None. Lm... None. Ls... None. Update... Jz near term... Smd short term... Mg long term... Mg aviation... Jz marine... Smd |
Weather Reporting Stations
EDIT (on/off) Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | Pressure | DewPt |
| TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI | 4 mi | 78 min | S 2.9 G 7 | 80°F | 1017.9 hPa | |||
| GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI | 17 mi | 78 min | SSE 4.1 G 6 | 74°F | 1018.6 hPa | |||
| 45163 | 20 mi | 38 min | S 5.8 G 5.8 | 78°F | 73°F | 1 ft | ||
| SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 34 mi | 58 min | SSE 4.1 G 5.1 | 80°F | 1017.3 hPa (-0.6) | |||
| KP58 | 42 mi | 67 min | NE 6 | 76°F | 1016.9 hPa | 70°F |
Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off) Help| 2 PM | 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | |
| Last 24hr | SW | S G10 | SE | SE G15 | S | S | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW G11 | SW | SW | SW | W G8 | W | W G9 | W G10 | W G9 | SE |
| 1 day ago | N G8 | NW G10 | NW G9 | W G8 | W G12 | SE | SE | S | SW | W | SW | W | W G9 | W | W | W | W G10 | W | W G13 | W G11 | W G14 | W G11 | W G11 | W |
| 2 days ago | W G20 | W G17 | W G20 | W G18 | W G14 | W G12 | W G19 | W G9 | W G13 | W G9 | W G9 | W G7 | W | SW | SW | SW G7 | W G8 | SW | W G8 | W G11 | W G12 | W G13 | NW G14 | N G10 |
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Visibility | Sky/Weather | Temp | DewPt | Humidity | Pressure |
| Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI | 15 mi | 64 min | N 0 | 10.00 mi | Fair | 87°F | 61°F | 43% | 1017.6 hPa |
Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
| 3 PM | 4 PM | 5 PM | 6 PM | 7 PM | 8 PM | 9 PM | 10 PM | 11 PM | 12 AM | 1 AM | 2 AM | 3 AM | 4 AM | 5 AM | 6 AM | 7 AM | 8 AM | 9 AM | 10 AM | 11 AM | 12 PM | 1 PM | 2 PM | |
| Last 24hr | S G19 | S G18 | S G24 | S G23 | S | S | S | S | S | SW | SW | SW | SW | Calm | S | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | W | SW | W | Calm |
| 1 day ago | NW G16 | S | S | SE | SE | S | W | Calm | Calm | SW | SW | SW | SW | W | SW | SW | SW | SW | SW | W G18 | W | W | W | SW G14 |
| 2 days ago | W G27 | W | W G20 | W G20 | W G20 | W G19 | W G21 | NW G15 | W G15 | W | W | SW | SW | SW | W | W | W | W | W | W G14 | NW | NW G18 | NW G19 | NW G17 |
Tide / Current Tables for
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EDIT (on/off) HelpWeather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program. |