Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tawas City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 9:22PM Friday June 23, 2017 4:52 PM EDT (20:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:37AMMoonset 7:51PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 416 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Through early evening..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:201706240430;;707765 FZUS53 KAPX 232016 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 416 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ349-240430-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
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location: 44.27, -83.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231849
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
249 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Near term (tonight through Saturday)
issued at 248 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017
high impact weather potential: maybe a rumble of thunder in interior
eastern upper into early evening? Slightly better chance at some
isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Severe weather not
anticipated. Widespread flooding still ongoing in SRN gladwin county.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper troughing trying to slide in from the NW this afternoon, with
weak vorticity swinging up through the wsw flow aloft, which has
helped keep some higher level cloud passing by over NRN michigan.

Meanwhile the lower clouds have continued to scour out, with some
overall drier air seen on latest satellite imagery continuing to
wedge into the NW cwa. The cold front that crossed us last night and
this morning, was now in SE lower michigan. There have been some
lingering relatively high sfc td's and bl weak convergence lake
breeze tendencies that have allowed for isolated showers in ne
lower, as well as in far eastern chip mack counties of eastern
upper. Meanwhile, cooler air aloft with steeper lapse rates ahead of
shortwave troughing was slowly making an eastward progress. There is
some added moisture back behind the wedge of drier air, which hasn't
fired off any showers in lake breeze convergence in south central
upper michigan or western sections of mackinac county just yet.

Temps were generally in the low to mid 70s and the air mass is
slowly getting less humid.

For the remainder of the afternoon and possibly early evening, the
pattern is there for isolated showers to develop across more of
interior upper michigan. A lack of instability, mlcapes not even 500
j kg, likely to keep thunder at bay. Severe weather certainly not
expected. Continued mixing over the next few hours also ought to
more efficiently bring down those sfc dew points to make things less
humid going into tonight. Loss of heating will end any shower
activity that does develop with mostly clear skies through the night
and Saturday morning. Not really expecting any fog, unless we do not
mix out that bl much more heading through afternoon. Then it would
likely just be patchy anyway. Wind speeds Saturday afternoon will be
rather marginal for good lake breeze convergence to develop, but it
will certainly be hugging the shorelines more, especially in
mackinac county and NE lower. Meanwhile additional weak vorticity
will sweep into the region, which may help in developing isolated to
scattered showers with only a handful of thunderstorms, again,
instability after modifying soundings reveal up to 500 j kg. Nothing
major. Can't tie all shower activity to just lake breeze convergence
areas, especially with a bigger shortwave arriving into the srn
lakes in the afternoon. Most of it will likely be there, but had to
keep some small chance in pretty much any spot in NRN michigan.

Highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s tomorrow with cooler air and
likely more diurnally driven clouds. Lows tonight in the low to mid
50s.

Short term (Saturday night through Monday)
issued at 248 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Below normal temperatures with showers and a few storms...

high impact weather potential... A few (largely) non-severe
thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Upper level troughiness in the process
of deepening across the upper midwest great lakes region... Driven
along by fairly strong short wave energy crossing the northern
lakes. Cold front has pushed through much of lower michigan with
cooler drier air beginning to make inroads into the region. Larger
scale troughiness will continue to deepen through the great lakes
and into the midwest ohio valley through the upcoming weekend into
early next week setting the stage for another period of below normal
temperatures and instability showers.

Primary forecast concerns... Minimal. Secondary piece of short wave
energy and weak-ish surface low over british columbia today will
slide down into the region Saturday night into Sunday. Enough cool
air aloft modest instability (even into the nighttime hours) and qg-
forcing for ascent with this system to carry showers for all areas
Saturday night. Sct-numerous showers and the chance for
afternoon early evening thunderstorms for Sunday into Monday as
core of coldest air aloft (now around -24c at 500 mb) slides
overhead. Severe threat still appears minimal although with low wet-
bulb zero heights (around 6k feet)... Pulse hail producers with
the strongest updrafts will be a concern.

Otherwise... Another stretch of below normal temperatures through the
early part of next week... With readings a good 5 to 10 degrees below
normal.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 248 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017
high impact weather potential: chance of thunderstorms at various
times Wednesday through Friday.

Fairly progressive pattern looks to be on tap for the majority of
next week with ridging aloft and surface high pressure
characterizing the start of the period Monday night into Tuesday.

Guidance continues to focus on a several developing areas of low
pressure across the central northern plains during the middle to end
of next week, ultimately renewing shower and thunderstorm chances
locally as early as Wednesday through the end of the forecast
period. Plenty of uncertainties remain at this juncture, but
confidence is growing in periods of wet weather returning during the
second half of next week across northern michigan.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1246 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017
still some spotty low cloud MVFR ifr out there, but it seems to be
mixed out thin enough at the airports to be taken out of all tafs,
even as a temporary conditions. Quite a bit of garbage high cloud
out there, which will be mixed in with scattered cumulus for the
afternoon. Maybe some spotty CU lingering around tonight and
continuing into tomorrow, when also, scattered rain showers and an
outside chance of a thunderstorm will impact NE lower apn.

Winds generally under 10kts with a tendency to turn to lake
breezes Saturday afternoon (where most of the showers will
develop).

Marine
Issued at 248 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017
gradient winds and waves not expected to be of any issue over the
next several days. An overall west NW direction to the winds, with
lake breeze tendencies and isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms during the afternoons and early evenings.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Tba
long term... Mjg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 4 mi72 min NW 6 G 9.9 77°F 1001.7 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 17 mi72 min W 5.1 G 11 70°F 1002.7 hPa
45163 20 mi52 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 68°F1 ft
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 34 mi52 min WNW 8 G 9.9 73°F 1002 hPa (+0.3)
KP58 42 mi61 min 4.1 73°F 1000.8 hPa67°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI15 mi59 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F64°F80%1001.7 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8S12SW5SW4SW4SW3W5SW4W4W8NW3CalmCalmSW11
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NW3SW4SW4W5W8W6NW7W8CalmW4W3W3W8NW3CalmSE4SE5SE6SE7SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.