Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tawas City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 6:39PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:06 PM EDT (00:06 UTC) Moonrise 10:31AMMoonset 8:19PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 423 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.gale warning in effect from midnight edt tonight through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest up to 30 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 40 knots. Rain early in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight. Waves 8 to 11 feet. Waves waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..South wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Rain. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Numerous showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:201710240430;;303370 FZUS53 KAPX 232023 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 423 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LHZ349-240430-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
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location: 44.27, -83.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 232323
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
723 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Near term (tonight through Tuesday)
issued at 350 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Heavy rain and becoming windy...

high impact weather potential... Heavy rain tonight, very slowly
tapering in intensity overnight into Tuesday. Windy conditions
developing, especially along NW lower mi coast.

Low pressure systems are in far NE in and just NE of mn. The in
low has begun to rapidly deepen, and will pivot ne, n, and nw-
ward, ending up over eastern upper mi on Tuesday. It will absorb
the other low in the process of bombing out. Rain continues across
much of northern mi, with an earlier eastward wobble to the back
edge of the rain shield now returning westward. Precip intensity
is increasing, especially in central lower mi, southern lake mi,
and surrounding locales. Precip and wind trends are the main
concern, in what is a busy forecast.

Heaviest rain for the entire event will play out over the next 12
hours or so. Surface low lifts from in, skirting the NE lower mi
coastline. Heaviest rain will fall just to the left of the track of
this low, where 850-700mb deformation and fgen are both maximized.

Ongoing enhancement along the outer edge of the rain shield (seen
from chicago to near ludington) should reform eastward as surface
low deepens more rapidly, and forcing becomes more concentrated
somewhat closer to its track. This process already appears to be
underway. Good agreement among NAM rap in bringing highest QPF to
an htl-rogers-drummond axis, with 2.0-2.5 inches from now thru
06z. The largest contribution from warm advection ends toward or
just after then, as the low curls NW toward eastern upper.

However, the lingering trowal will maintain healthy (though not as
heavy) precip rates for quite some time; thru much of Tuesday in
nw lower eastern upper mi. Very late tonight, and lasting into
Tuesday precip coverage will decrease in NE lower as low-level
downsloping and (for a time) subtle mid- level dry slotting take a
toll.

Flood watch will not be altered.

Winds will increase rapidly in some areas as soon as late evening,
with the bombing out low heading toward huron. Nnw winds on
northern lake mi into NW lower mi will be the 1st to kick in. Per
coord with grr lot, potential for 45mph gusts very quickly
develops in gd trav region up to emmet co toward or just after
midnight. Wind core further intensifies and migrates sw-ward
during the overnight and into Tuesday. Threat for 45mph gusts
develops down toward mbl frankfort very late tonight. All this
persists into the Wed night period. Wind advisory already posted
for the NW lower mi coast. Winds will taper will eastward extent
for exposure reasons. Meanwhile, as the low hovers over eastern
upper mi, they will see widely variable winds there: gusty
southerlies by drummond, easterlies at whitefish pt, NW at curtis.

Min temps tonight 40s. MAX temps Tuesday upper 40s to mid 50s,
coolest cad area and warmest east.

Short term (Tuesday night through Thursday)
issued at 350 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Windy and rain Tuesday night diminishing Wednesday...

high impact weather potential: gusty winds Tuesday night.

Pattern forecast: progressive five wave hemispheric pattern in place
with a bit of a split flow long wave trough over central north
america. A pair of short wave troughs were moving through the mean
trough position this afternoon... One over the mid mississippi and
lower ohio valleys... Another was digging southeast across the
northern plains and into the midwest along with a nearly 160kt jet
core. Surface reflections of these features can be found in a
1006mb low over southwest indiana (attached to a cold stationary
front that passed through northern michigan Sunday afternoon
evening)... And a 1002mb low along the minnesota manitoba border.

Phasing of these short wave troughs will result in a decent closed
low encompassing the great lakes midwest ohio valley Tuesday and
serve to sharpen amplify the mean trough. Meanwhile... Progressive
pacific pattern (driven in no small part by the remnants of typhoon
"lan" getting injected into the main westerlies) will drive another
digging short wave trough into the nation's midsection during the
latter half of the week... Allowing the long wave trough axis to
retrograde a bit. Surface pattern responds to this first by
deepening the surface low over indiana as it lifts into michigan
tonight... And into the straits region Tuesday morning. This low
will then spin slowly across the region during the day Tuesday
before filling and lifting out to the northeast Wednesday. Then a
bit of a lull heading into Thursday while the next surface low cold
push moves into the upper midwest.

Primary forecast concerns: strong wind gusts Tuesday night.

Surface low expected to be in the eastern u.P. Vicinity Tuesday
evening... Probably in the neighborhood of 987-988mb. Strongest
gradient expected around the western semicircle of the system... So
as the low pushes east expect gusty winds to continue... At least 25-
35mph gusts with some 40+mph winds along the northwest lower lake
michigan shoreline counties (and through the straits as well). So
wind advisory for these areas will be stretched through at least
into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday... After which wind gusts will
diminish.

Deep moisture will continue to wrap around this system Tuesday
night... Along with low level cold air (925mb temperatures getting
down into the 0c range) which will steepen low level lapse rates and
allow for lake enhancement to add to precipitation probabilities.

Surface based freezing layers will be eroding... So potential there
for some snow to mix in away from the lakes and particularly in the
higher terrain of northern lower.

Showers will continue into Wednesday but with a diminishing trend
into Wednesday night.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 350 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017
long range models agree with a developing low pressure system over
the great lakes region and a trailing deep long wave trough that
will provide chances of rain and snow for the forecast area through
the extended period. Snow chances will be during the overnight and
early morning hours as temperatures drop into the upper 20s to low
30s. Daytime temperatures will be in the 40s.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 719 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017
low pressure will continue to strengthen overnight as it move
north across the area. This low will essentially become stationary
across the tip of the mitt eastern upper michigan on Tuesday.

Widespread MVFR ifr CIGS vis will be the result through this taf
duration. Bands of light to moderate rain will continue this
evening across the area, with the focus for steadier rains
becoming confined to northwest lower michigan with time. Surface
winds will become quite gusty from the west and southwest on
Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 350 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017
low pressure deepens rapidly as it curves from in to the NE lower
mi coastline, to eastern upper mi by Tue morning. It will stall
there on Tuesday. A variety of marine headlines are already out;
these will be looked at again over the next hour. Will give
consideration up upgrades to storms along parts of the NW lower mi
coast, as well as upgrades to gales in other waters.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Flood watch through Tuesday morning for miz008-015>036-041-042.

Wind advisory from 11 pm this evening to 3 am edt Wednesday for
miz016-019>021-026.

Wind advisory from 5 am Tuesday to 3 am edt Wednesday for miz025-
031.

Lh... Gale warning from midnight tonight to 6 am edt Wednesday for
lhz345>349.

Lm... Gale warning from midnight tonight to 6 am edt Wednesday for
lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... Gale warning from midnight tonight to 8 pm edt Tuesday for
lsz321-322.

Near term... Jz
short term... Jpb
long term... Tl
aviation... mb
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 4 mi87 min NE 6 G 9.9 58°F 1000.3 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 17 mi48 min E 11 G 13 60°F 998.6 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 34 mi67 min E 14 G 15 60°F 997.6 hPa (-5.4)
KP58 42 mi76 min SE 15 G 24 61°F 999 hPa59°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI15 mi73 minESE 53.00 miHeavy Rain59°F58°F97%1000 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS13
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NW7NE6NE4N5N4CalmN6NE4N6N6N7NE8N7NE5N4N5N6CalmSE5
1 day agoS13
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2 days agoS8
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SE5S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.