Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tawas City, MI

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:39PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 1:39 PM EDT (17:39 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 12:45AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 1058 Am Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Today..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:201809192300;;885418 FZUS53 KAPX 191458 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1058 AM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ349-192300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
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location: 44.27, -83.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 191333
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
933 am edt Wed sep 19 2018

Update
Issued at 933 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
low stratus is hanging tough over most of our CWA this morning.

Even some of the breaks over far NE lower michigan have tended to
fill back in over the past hour or so as shallow low level
moisture remains trapped below the inversion. Still expect these
low CIGS will gradually lift and eventually develop some breaks as
daytime heating mixing strengthens as we head into the afternoon
hours. But overall... Expect these breaks will no preclude a mainly
cloudy day as additional mid high clouds begin to move into
northern michigan in advance of a warm front lifting toward our
region. Still cannot rule out a stray shower late in the day as
deeper moisture begins to arrive across our SW cwa... With better
precip chances still expected to arrive tonight.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 342 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
high impact weather potential: increasing rain chances with a small
chance of thunderstorms tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
zonal upper level flow was aligned across the nc plains and great
lakes early this morning, while shortwave troughing was pressing
through the western conus. Low pressure has developed ahead of this
troughing in wyoming, and a frontal boundary extended eastward
through the central plains through just south of the great lakes.

Patches of showers and thunderstorms were noted along and north of
this frontal boundary, within deeper moisture that was being
advected in northward via a LLJ punching through the central plains
and mississippi valley. Forcing was particularly stronger through the
dakotas, where there was also upper divergence from a 100+kt jet. In
nrn michigan some drier low level air was seeping down into the
region, especially downsloping off the higher terrain of ontario.

This has resulted in some clearing at times in eastern upper, but
nocturnal cooling of the bl has taken over most areas, helping
redevelop expand low level clouds underneath a low level inversion.

The expansion of clouds was also a likely result of shallow overlake
instability.

The cloud forecast will be difficult. The current low level clouds
will likely persist into the morning, but there are plenty of
signals that the trying to seep in from the north, combined with
diurnal mixing, will allow for maybe some sunshine later this
morning into this afternoon. Thickening clouds to occur tonight, as
the aforementioned upper jet and divergence aloft work into the
great lakes, and a redeveloped LLJ results in strengthening theta-e
advection, as the frontal boundary to our south surges northward
into the western great lakes and lower michigan. This will result in
an expanding area of showers that is expected to make it into nrn
michigan, particularly overnight tonight. Some thunderstorms will
also be possible in NRN lower, but mucapes are not impressive in
most of the data.

High temperatures a little uncertain considering the fuzzy cloud
forecast. At least some sunshine will take us into the middle 60s to
lower 70s. Lows tonight most likely not falling out of the 50s.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 340 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
high impact weather potential: chance of thunderstorms, primarily
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night... Perhaps including an
isolated severe storm capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
large hail.

Pattern forecast: primary focus through the short term forecast
period will revolve around a well-defined upper level wave and
attendant developing area of low pressure across the central plains
on Wednesday. This system is expected to strengthen as it treks
northeastward across the upper mississippi valley far western great
lakes with a warm front swinging northward across the forecast area
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Northern michigan is expected to
lie in the warm sector by Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening
prior to a cold front racing eastward late Thursday night Friday
morning.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops and associated
thunderstorm potential (severe threat?) Thursday through Friday.

By Thursday morning, isentropically driven showers are expected to
be ongoing across the forecast area... Most widespread north of m-72
through the straits as the system's aforementioned warm front is
situated west to east across central lower michigan. Warm front will
progress northward throughout the remainder of the morning into the
afternoon hours, resulting in a gradual northward shift in the
steadiest heaviest precipitation to across the straits eastern upper
before the front eventually clears north of the u.P. By Thursday
evening. As such, much of northern lower will lie within the warm
sector during the day Thursday. Deep southerly return flow will aid
in increasing deep layer moisture across the area... Evident by pws
progged between 1.75-2.00 inches (+2 to 3 sd). Guidance continues to
suggest upwards of 400-800 j kg of MLCAPE developing across northern
lower Thursday afternoon with additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing at times, albeit in much more of a hit or
miss fashion. Given bulk shear values upwards of 50-55 kts across
the area, any thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Thursday
night will have the potential to develop sustained updrafts and the
potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail... Meshing well with
spc's latest thoughts in their day 2 severe weather outlook. The
aforementioned cold front is expected to race east across the area
Friday morning (generally between 12-15z), bringing another round of
showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms to the entire area.

Lingering moisture and strong cold air advection behind the front
through the day Friday may allow occasional shower activity to
continue off and on, especially downwind of lake michigan and
superior as lake processes may even play contributor (h8 temps
falling to +2 to 4 c by 00z Sat with delta TS near 20 c).

All in all, this system will bring much needed rainfall to northern
michigan with some locations seeing upwards of 1-1.50 inches of new
rainfall between late Wednesday night through Thursday night
(primarily across the northern one-third of the forecast
area... Lesser amounts south). Wpc has locations across the tip of
the mitt and eastern upper highlighted in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall bounded by a broader area southward towards m-72
in a marginal risk. Given the recent lack of rainfall over the last
10-14 days, not expecting any flooding issues despite possible
locally heavy rainfall as any showers or storms should be very
efficient rain producers.

Lastly, given the tightening pressure gradient across the great
lakes region, winds will become noticeably gusty, primarily Thursday
afternoon through the day Friday when gusts of 30-40 mph will be
common... Perhaps approaching 40 mph along the great lakes coasts.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 340 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
high impact weather potential: perhaps a bit of patchy frost
Saturday and Sunday morning.

The aforementioned system discussed above departs well off to the
east Friday night with high pressure and much drier air moving into
the region providing a return to precipitation-free conditions and
seasonable temperatures. There's the potential for even a bit of
patchy frost across the typically cooler interior locations both
Saturday and Sunday mornings given expected high pressure overhead
and resultant mostly clear skies light winds.

Beyond the weekend, the pattern looks to become active once again as
another area of low pressure develops across the plains with its
eyes set on the great lakes during the early to middle portions of
next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 641 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
tough cig forecast. MVFR stratus has expanded across most all of
nrn michigan through the night. This low level moisture is stuck
underneath an inversion, but there are several indicators of the
MVFR mixing out late morning early afternoon, while periods of
higher level cloud passes by overhead. Maybe a few light showers
can work into NRN michigan today, but the main area of showers and
perhaps a few storms rolls in late tonight, while low pressure and
a warm front lift into the western great lakes.

Marine
Issued at 340 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
weak high pressure drifts across eastern canada today, while low
pressure develops into the central plains and upper mississippi
valley tonight. A warm front surges into the region late tonight
into Thursday with showers and some thunderstorms expanding across
the great lakes during this time, and through Thursday night. Winds
really start ramping up Thursday night as low pressure deepens and
presses through the NRN great lakes. Gale force winds are possible,
mainly over lake michigan and whitefish bay, and likely over most of
the nearshore waters into Friday behind the passage of the system's
cold front. An initial gale watch has been hoisted for lake michigan
and whitefish bay.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Gale watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for
lmz341-342-344>346.

Ls... Gale watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for
lsz321.

Update... Mr
near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 4 mi59 min ENE 6 G 8.9 67°F 1019.3 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 17 mi25 min NNE 7 G 9.9 64°F 1020 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 34 mi39 min ENE 7 G 9.9 64°F 1019 hPa (+1.1)
KP58 42 mi48 min ESE 8 64°F 1018.9 hPa58°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI15 mi44 minE 810.00 miOvercast64°F55°F75%1020 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE6E7E7NE9E5NE4CalmCalmN6NW4N4N5N7N5CalmNW4CalmNW6N4N5NE7NE6E9
1 day agoSW8S8S9S8S5S5SW3SW5CalmN6N11N5N5CalmNW4NW3N6N5NW3N6N7N7NE8NE7
2 days agoE5E5E6E5E3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW3SW3CalmSW4SW4S3SW5SW7SW6S7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.