Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tawas City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 7:47PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 4:35 AM EDT (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:09PMMoonset 6:12AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 359 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy early in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers and snow showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:201903191600;;591372 FZUS53 KAPX 190759 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 359 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ349-191600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
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location: 44.27, -83.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 190742
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
342 am edt Tue mar 19 2019

Near term (today and tonight)
issued at 342 am edt Tue mar 19 2019

Mainly dry today, showers return late tonight through Wednesday...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: overnight analysis reveals northwesterly
confluent flow axis across the western great lakes region with
michigan situated on the southeast edge of the slowly departing
long-wave troughing in far eastern canada. Modest upper jet axis
stretches from northern michigan southeastward to the mid atlantic
coast. Embedded within the broad NW flow, yet another very
weak subtle short-wave trough is in the process of dropping down
through the northern lakes early this morning. A more substantial
wave is moving down through the western dakotas. This wave will
eventually end up phasing with additional short- wave energy
slated to dive out out of ontario and down through the great lakes
late tonight through Wednesday.

Meanwhile, quiet weather for the most part overnight with thickening
mid and high cloud cover overhead. We have seen a continuation of
very weak radar returns through the tip of the mitt and over
through the alpena area overnight. An additional band of mid level
returns has materialized across central and eastern upper
michigan as well. This appears to be the product of remaining
steep low-mid level lapse rates across the region (reference our
00z sounding and SPC mesoanalysis page), beneath weak ongoing
background qg-forcing for ascent. Radar returns are high based -
aoa 6k feet. And with lots of dry air down low, precip has is
likely mostly virga.

Primary forecast concerns: minimal. Increasing precip chances
tonight.

Today: continued quiet. As mentioned, very weak short-wave trough
will clip the northern lakes region early this morning. As such,
i still cannot rule out spotty snow showers flurries impacting
parts of eastern upper michigan tip of the mitt this morning. But
given the dry low level air and minimal impact, I don't plan on
having any precip chances in the forecast. Otherwise, modest low-
mid level warming decreasing 0-3km lapse rates will take shape
across the region through the afternoon. So I don't think we will
see a repeat of "heating of the day" driven spotty showers like
we've seen over the last few days. Just largely partly sunny skies
and temperatures further warming to the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Tonight: one more piece of short-wave energy and attending surface
low pressure (just north of manitoba this morning) will be dropping
out of ontario into the western great lakes later tonight. This
system will eventually phase with the dakotas short-wave that
will be swinging through the lower ohio tennessee valley region on
Wednesday bringing a bit more substantial precip to lower
michigan. But in the interim, canadian system will begin to spread
some light precip into eastern upper michigan straits and the tip
of the mitt during the late overnight hours. Mainly some light
snow and very minor (if any) accumulations overnight. Better
precip chances arrive tomorrow.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 342 am edt Tue mar 19 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal, although could be some slick
roadways early in the day Wednesday.

Pattern synopsis forecast: broad longwave troughing across the
eastern one third of the CONUS is expected to continue through the
forecast period. The primary focus will revolve around occasional
embedded shortwaves expected to bring scattered rain snow chances to
northern michigan Wednesday and again late in the day Thursday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: precipitation chances through
the forecast period.

By Wednesday morning, two separate mid-level waves will begin to
converge toward northern michigan... One diving southward through
ontario and another eastward from the mid-mississippi valley. This
will set the stage for increasing precipitation chances, initially
north of the bridge late tonight into early Wednesday morning before
chances spread southward through the remainder of the morning into
the afternoon. Expecting precip to begin as snow during the early
morning before gradually mixing with and even changing to all rain
across parts of northern lower through the remainder of the day.

Suppose this could result in a few slick spots on area roadways,
primarily across eastern upper and the tip of the mitt early in the
day. Greatest forcing exits stage right by early evening leaving
just a few lingering flurries or light rain showers. Despite a mid-
upper level drying trend through the remainder of the night,
forecast soundings suggest a rather moist layer trapped under a ~1
kft inversion that may be enough to produce some patchy
drizzle freezing drizzle through early Thursday morning, especially
in the higher terrain.

Another wave approaches from the northwest Thursday afternoon, once
again expected to increase scattered rain snow showers across much
of northern michigan into early Thursday evening. Not a whole lot of
impact expected during this time frame either, but some slick roads
will once again be a possibility as temperatures cool back below
freezing after sunset Thursday evening.

High temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday expected to range from
the mid 30s to mid 40s area wide... Coolest north, warmest near the m-
55 corridor and near saginaw bay.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 342 am edt Tue mar 19 2019
high impact weather potential... None.

Quiet the amplified upper-level pattern across the CONUS to wrap up
the work week as upstream ridging gradually dampens as it slides
overhead Friday through the upcoming weekend. Combined with
attendant surface high pressure and the result is expected to be a
stretch of mainly dry weather with temperatures remaining near to
slightly above normal.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1245 am edt Tue mar 19 2019
a weak wave will continue to slide eastward away from michigan
overnight. Residual snow showers resulting from this feature will
come to an end overnight. Overall conditions will remainVFR thru
the 24 hr TAF forecast period. Calm winds overnight will become sw
aob 10 kts on Tuesday.

Marine
Issued at 342 am edt Tue mar 19 2019
quiet weather on the lakes today and much of the night. A slight
increase in SW winds anticipated late overnight into Wednesday as
surface low pressure drops out of canada and down through the
western great lakes. No marine headlines anticipated at this
juncture.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Mr
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 4 mi56 min W 1.9 G 2.9 27°F 1027.4 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 17 mi36 min S 1 G 8 31°F 1027.4 hPa (-0.4)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 34 mi36 min SW 5.1 G 5.1 31°F 1026.8 hPa (+0.4)
KP58 42 mi45 min SW 4.1 27°F 1027.6 hPa24°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI15 mi41 minSW 410.00 miOvercast25°F23°F94%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW4NW4CalmW3NW5N5E3SE8SE8SE7SE4S10W8SW5W4NE11
G14
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1 day agoCalmSW3SW5CalmSW4SW6SW7W7SW6SW9S8SW11W9SW8S6CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW8W7W6W9
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W8W6W7W6NW5W4NW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.