Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmingdale, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:54PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 8:53 PM EDT (00:53 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 11:32PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 628 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ100 628 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A high pressure ridge will build into the waters this evening with winds and waves subsiding. This high will move quickly east allowing another strong cold front to move through the waters on Wednesday afternoon with westerly winds strengthening and then shifting northwesterly before strengthening further Wednesday night and Thursday. High pressure will arrive from the west during the day Thursday and Thursday night with winds and waves gradually subsiding. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmingdale, ME
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location: 44.28, -69.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 162232
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
632 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
After a brief break tonight... The second in a series of strong
cold fronts will arrive on Wednesday with another round of
showers and gusty winds with the coldest air of the fall season
arriving Wednesday night and Thursday with mountain snow showers
continuing. High pressure arrives late Thursday and Thursday
night with slackening winds and moderating temperatures through
the end of the week. The next chance for rain showers will come
Saturday ahead of another frontal system.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Update...

have updated the forecast based on current conditions. Chilly
conditions will continue this evening with a brief period of
radiation cooling possible this evening with clear skies and
diminishing winds. Temperatures already down into the 30s across
portios of the mountains.

Minor modifications made to temperature, dew point and cloud
forecast. Mid level cloudiness to our north and west will lower
and cross the region later tonight.

Prev disc...

high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern: active pattern across the eastern united states early this
afternoon with a sprawling longwave trough taking up residence over
the eastern two thirds of noam with a longwave ridge centered along
the west coast. For the time being... The nao remains positive... So
despite the depth of this trough... It will pull east through the
near and short term forecast period. Within this trough are two
significant shortwaves. The first is now departing the region to
the east while the second will arrive on Wednesday. Thus...

through the near term forecast period we find ourselves between
these two features with a weak surface ridge axis building in
from the west with a generally quiet night expected.

Through this evening: winds will continue to diminish to less than
10 mph this evening with temperatures falling fairly rapidly in the
dry airmass under mostly clear skies... With most spots in the
upper 30s lower 40s by 8pm.

Tonight: ridge axis overhead this evening quickly moves east with
flow beginning to back ahead of upstream shortwave that will dive
into the great lakes through daybreak. Top down saturation will
commence during the overnight hours with cloudiness gradually
thickening and lowering. At the leading edge of a modest h8
theta-e surge... Recent high resolution hrrr runs have suggested
a blossoming area of very light precipitation in the 9-12z
timeframe... With some support from the NAM nest and high res arw
window run. While it would be light... Could see some snow in
the mountains... With any precipitation to the south likely
falling as light rain. Temperatures will fall quickly this
evening... Then level off and likely begin rising a bit overnight
with lows in the 30s in all areas except southeastern nh and
coastal me.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
High impact weather potential: strengthening westerly winds
Wednesday followed by accumulating snow in the mountains and
favored upslope regions to the north Wednesday night.

Pattern: secondary shortwave arrives during the short term period
with another northern stream... Relatively moisture-starved cold
front arriving during the day Wednesday followed by strong cold
advection which will usher in the coldest air of the fall
season thus far. Forecast concerns center largely on winds given
the strength of this system... With attention paid to
precipitation chances as well... Particularly in the mountains
where the pattern looks favorable for upslope snow showers.

Wednesday: pwats ahead of arriving secondary front are fairly
meager 0.5-0.6 inch ... But more impressive will be
along immediately behind the front as 1000-700 mb lapse rates
steepen with 50-100 j kg of cape... Cyclonic flow and support at
the jet level likely supporting a convective line of showers
that decays as it moves off the mountains and towards the
coastal plain. In these situations... You can occasionally bring
graupel to the surface given the cool airmass... However... Wet
bulb zero heights are still 3-5kft so this looks like it will be
more of an exception than the rule. It will be a different
story in the mountains where precipitation will increasingly
become frozen towards evening with some light accumulations at
elevation. Highs will reach the 50s along the coast and
foothills... With 40s in the mountains. Temps in all areas will
fall in the afternoon.

Wind: westerly winds strengthen ahead of the approaching front
with a surge of cold advection immediately behind the front
combined with good mixing from lapse rates mentioned above
potentially conspiring to bring 30-35 mph winds to the surface
for a short time ~2 hr immediately after frontal passage.

Wednesday night: robust cold advection continues through the
night with strong cyclonic flow and residual low level moisture
allowing upslope snow showers to continue in the mountains.

Lift moisture actually reach into the dgz as temps fall
overnight... So expect snow showers to increasingly be able to
accumulate overnight as mentioned by previous forecaster . Have
painted 1-2 inches over the terrain and in northern coos and
far northern oxford and franklin counties. Further south...

expect a few sprinkles flurries in the evening... But overnight
activity will increasingly be confined to the mountains in line
with froude number diagnostics as moisture thins and flow
loses it S cyclonic nature.

Winds: stronger winds will hold off until daytime mixing
resumes on Thursday but 10-15 mph winds with gusts to around 25
mph will continue through the overnight.

Temps: t8s fall below -10c -3 sigma under strong cold
advection... And despite mixing will push all areas into the 20s
and 30s. Still have a few active zones from a frost freeze
perspective and while a frost is not likely given the winds... A
hard freeze is not out of the question for these remaining
zones.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
A big push of cold air moves into the region on Thursday.

Temperatures aloft drop to well below normal with 700mb temps of
-20c near record cold for this time of year. Accompanying the
cold air will be a strong pressure gradient driving gusty
northwesterly winds.

Winds will begin to increase in the early morning hours of Thursday
and continue through Thursday afternoon; a wind advisory will likely
be needed with more scattered power outages possible. Strongest
winds will be through the morning hours on Thursday when the
mixing begins to allow the higher wind speeds to reach the
surface and the strongest pressure gradient occurs. Have
increased gusts a bit through this narrow time window with a
few gusts to 40kts possible and widespread 25-5kt gusts across
the lower elevations and the summits correspondingly higher.

As the colder air moves into the region high temperatures on
Thursday will hold in the 40s to upper 30s, nearly 15 degrees below
normal. While the core of the cold air aloft will begin to shift
northeastwards on Thursday night the decreasing pressure gradient
will allow the winds to decouple by daybreak opening us up for good
radiational cooling in the mountain valleys. While it may take
until well after midnight to loose the winds, when we do
temperatures will drop rapidly and thus have pushed lows a bit
colder than much of the guidance. Even with a slight breeze this
airmass will be enough to end the growing season for the
remaining portion of the area and a freeze warning will likely
be needed for the coast.

Friday temperature will moderate slightly as the cold air moves out
of the region, with good agreement amongst various guidance stuck
close to the consensus.

For the weekend the next chance of precipitation moves into the
area. It's increasingly looking like the northern and southern
stream will not phase allowing a weak disturbance to pass south of
us early in the day on Saturday with a northern stream shortwave
impacting the mountains through the weekend. Will see scattered
showers across the entire region with highest pop in the mountains.

With temperatures marginal for snow, expect mainly rain for all but
the highest elevations during the day with a transition to some
light snow above 2000ft overnight Saturday into Sunday.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Short term...

summary: high pressure builds into the region tonight with a
fast moving cold front arriving Wednesday afternoon... And moving
south of the region Wednesday night.

Restrictions: expectVFR conditions to continue through Wednesday
night. Could see some isolated restrictions in shra late Wednesday
at hie leb... And possibly aug... But not likely south and east of
this.

Winds: northwesterly winds will continue to gradually weaken through
this evening and tonight as high pressure arrives from the west. On
Wednesday... Westerly winds strengthen to 15g25kts ahead of the cold
front before shifting northwesterly Wednesday night and continuing
15g25kts through the night.

Llws: no llws expected through the period as the low levels remain
well-mixed given the strong wind field.

Lightning: no lightning expected through Wednesday night.

Long term...VFR conditions will continue through most of the
extended. Strong cold advection will bring gusty northwesterly
winds for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Another system
will bring a chance for showers to the entire area on Saturday
with highest pop in the mountains where MVFR and overnight snow
showers are likely on Saturday night.

Marine
Short term... Winds waves have subsided a bit from this
morning... But SCA conditions will continue outside the bays
through tonight before waves strengthen ahead of our next system
late Wednesday with a gale watch issued beginning late Wednesday
and continuing into the long term forecast period below.

Long term... Cold air will move into the region overnight Wednesday into
Thursday. The cold air and tight pressure gradient will result in
strong northwesterly winds with gusts to gale and a gale watch has
been issued. Winds will decrease as high pressure builds in on
Friday before again increasing to gusting 25-30kts will SCA likely
all weekend.

Equipment
Kgyx radar outage with parts on order this afternoon. Expect to
be back up around midday Thursday.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon
for anz150>154.

Jc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 44 mi110 min NW 7.8 G 12 52°F 56°F2 ft1012.6 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 45 mi110 min WNW 12 G 16 55°F 55°F5 ft1012.4 hPa
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 50 mi36 min 53°F 56°F1014.3 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Augusta, Augusta State Airport, ME3 mi61 minNW 710.00 miFair43°F28°F56%1014.3 hPa
Waterville, Waterville Robert LaFleur Airport, ME19 mi58 minW 510.00 miFair41°F27°F57%1016.2 hPa
Wiscasset Airport, ME23 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair39°F35°F86%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from AUG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS3CalmW3CalmSW3CalmCalmNW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE9S9
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2 days agoW4W5SW4W4W4W5W5SW5CalmW5W5SW3W7NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Hallowell, Kennebec River, Maine
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Hallowell
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Tue -- 03:58 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:10 AM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:11 PM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:19 PM EDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.610.60.40.71.62.73.53.83.83.42.82.11.51.10.91.11.82.83.74.14.13.7

Tide / Current Tables for Nehumkeag Island, Kennebec River, Maine
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Nehumkeag Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:41 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:37 AM EDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:54 PM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:46 PM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.10.60.5123.14.14.64.74.43.62.71.81.31.11.42.23.34.34.95.14.84.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.