Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mishicot, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:25PM Saturday February 17, 2018 9:10 PM CST (03:10 UTC) Moonrise 8:51AMMoonset 8:21PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ542 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 253 Pm Cst Sat Feb 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm cst this evening...
Tonight..W wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 20 kts after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Mostly clear.
Sunday..SW wind 5 to 10 kts becoming S to 30 kts with gale force gusts to around 40 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less building quickly to 8 to 12 ft in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then becoming cloudy.
Sunday night..S wind to 30 kts with gale force gusts to around 40 kts becoming sw 10 to 15 kts after midnight. Waves 8 to 12 ft subsiding to 6 to 10 ft after midnight. Mostly cloudy.
Monday..NE wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 4 to 7 ft. A chance of light rain and light freezing rain in the morning. Light freezing rain and rain in the afternoon.
LMZ542 Expires:201802180515;;124039 FZUS53 KGRB 172053 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 253 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-180515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mishicot, WI
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location: 44.31, -87.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 180244
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
844 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
updated aviation portion for 06z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

Update
Issued at 840 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
still plenty of details in question about the precipitation
resulting from the evolving southwest flow regime. The lead wave
heading up the front tomorrow will have limited moisture.

Significant lift will be necessary to achieve saturation, and the
precipitation will be confined to areas north of the
developing strengthening frontal boundary. The new NAM keeps the
precipitation totally north of the forecast area. That actually
fits with the dry air (teens surface dewpoints) currently across
the central plains. But given the complexity of the pattern, will
forego making any changes to the precipitation forecast for Sunday
at this time, and allow the incoming shift to review the entire
00z guidance suite before making adjustments.

Gulf moisture will eventually be drawn into the system, giving
the wave crossing the region Monday into Tuesday the potential to
be a significant precipitation producer. Precipitable water
standardized anomalies are forecast to climb to over +2 to +3
over the southeast third of wisconsin by Tuesday morning. Although
available moisture should no longer be a concern by that point,
other critical forecast details are still highly uncertain. Those
include the location structure of meso-scale precipitation bands,
and the thermal profile which will determine precipitation type.

The details of the precipitation type will hopefully become
clearer in the next 24 hours. But as of now the most likely
outcome seems to be for mainly sn and some fzra pl over the far
north, a band of mainly fzra fzdz from central to northeast
wisconsin, and mainly ra fzra fzdz over east-central wisconsin.

Updated grids, zfp and hwo already sent.

Short term Tonight and Sunday
issued at 250 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
first round of light snow was moving across northeast wisconsin as
of mid afternoon. The light snow should end around 6 pm along the
lake michigan shoreline. Accumulations should be around an inch or
less, skies should clear fairly quickly this evening behind the
snow. This should allow temperatures to plummet, especially in our
typical cold spots later tonight as the winds go fairly light.

Temperatures should not do a complete tank as mid and high clouds
will be on the increase again late tonight into Sunday morning.

On Sunday, the main question is how far south snow will make into
northern wisconsin. The NAM is farther north than the ecmwf,
gfs and canadian model. Snow should arrive across the far north
late Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon. Currently
have an inch or two for this period. No precipitation is expected
south of a merrill to sturgeon bay line. Only minor changes made
to the MAX temperatures on Sunday.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
issued at 250 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
snow will be winding down Sunday evening as the 850 mb low slides
over lake superior, dragging a cold front south in its wake. How
far south this cold front tracks through the early part of the
new work week will play a role on the precipitation type and will
present a big forecast challenge.

There is an increasing potential of mixed precipitation with ice
accumulation becoming more of a concern. Considered a watch due
to the potential for ice accumulation but precipitation may hold
off more toward Monday night. Progs this morning suggests two main
frontal waves, Monday afternoon and then again Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Even between these two primary regions of
precipitation, lighter precipitation will likely continue to be an
impact, such as continued freezing drizzle.

High pressure dropping into the mid section of the country will
bring quieter conditions to the area with the next chance for
precipitation toward the end of the week.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 840 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
MVFR ceilings have been a bit slower to depart the east than
earlier expected, but they seem to be on their way out now. Low-
endVFR clouds were brushing the north, but those also seemed to
be headed off to the east. That should lead to a brief period of
clear mostly clear skies before middle clouds begin to spread
back in from the west later tonight early Sunday. The
precipitation with an initial wave riding northeast in developing
southwest upper flow will clip the north tomorrow, leading to some
MVFR and possibly ifr conditions during the mid-day hours.

Otherwise, the main aviation weather concern will be the
development of fairly strong llws as winds above the surface
increase to AOA 50 kts.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... ... ... Skowronski
short term... ..Eckberg
long term... ... Tdh
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 11 mi52 min W 9.9 G 19 28°F 1013.7 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 39 mi70 min WSW 12 G 14 28°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.5)23°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI13 mi74 minW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy25°F21°F88%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW3SW5S7SW6SW7SW5S4SW6SW7S9SW6SW9SW11SW9SW9W12W8SW8SW10SW8SW8W11W10
1 day agoN8N14N15N14N11NW10NW9NW6NW8NW10
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2 days agoSW11SW12
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W10W6W5W5SW3SW66W9W8NW6NW6NW7N8NE9N6N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.