Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mishicot, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:19PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 4:52 AM CST (10:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:15AMMoonset 8:48PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ542 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 407 Am Cst Wed Nov 22 2017
Today..NW wind 10 to 15 kts backing sw by late morning. A few gusts to 25 kts still possible early today in the vicinity of the northern door peninsula. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Early morning clouds and flurries, some mid-day Sun, then increasing clouds this afternoon.
Tonight..SW wind increasing to 15 to 20 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of light snow. A little freezing rain also possible.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Clearing.
Thursday night..SW wind 10 to 15 kts increasing to 15 to 25 kts after midnight. Waves building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Becoming mostly cloudy. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ542 Expires:201711221715;;788132 FZUS53 KGRB 221007 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 407 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-541>543-221715-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mishicot, WI
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location: 44.31, -87.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 220945
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
345 am cst Wed nov 22 2017
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 341 am cst Wed nov 22 2017
still rather chilly today, then warmer for thanksgiving day and
Friday. Scattered light wintry precipitation could result in
slippery travel conditions tonight.

The primary large scale features are a trough off the west coast,
downstream ridging just inland from the coast, and a trough over
eastern north america. The features will deamplify some the next
couple days, then reamplify again during the weekend. Slow
progression is expected thereafter.

The modest amplitude and eventual approach of the upper ridge will
result in temperatures varying between near and modestly above
normal after today. Moisture will be limited, so despite some
fairly strong cyclones tracking to our north, only scattered
light precipitation is expected. Amounts are likely to end up
below normal for the period.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Thursday
issued at 341 am cst Wed nov 22 2017
the cold anticyclone that dropped southeast from canada will shift
through to the south of the area early today, allowing southwest
winds and a return flow on the back side of the high to set up
by afternoon. The backing low-level flow will take trajectories
away from lake superior, allowing the low clouds and flurries to
finally dissipate. Anticipate at least a period of Sun before high
clouds stream back in from the west this afternoon.

Isentropic lift will shift southeast through the area tonight,
mainly between 01z and 10z. Forcing may initially be enhanced a
little by the lfq of an upper speed max, though that aspect of the
forcing won't last as long as the isentropic lift. In general,
the models responded by showing an area of light precipitation
breaking out to the northwest of the area this afternoon. Most of
the models brought the precipitation southeast into the area
during the evening, before wiping it out later in the night. That
seemed reasonable. Precipitaiton amounts will be light, with less
than an inch of snow expected over central wisconsin, and
probably just a trace or dusting elsewhere. The complicating
factor is that model forecast soundings off both the GFS and nam
suggest the temperatures in the saturated layer may not always be
cold enough to result in ice crystals, especially toward the
latter part of the event. There may be lingering dry air at low-
levels, so these aren't classic fzdz soundings. If ice crystals
aren't present, it's most likely the precip will fall as very
light fzra. Considering the potential impact from that would be
much higher than from just a dusting of snow, manipulated the
grids to get at least a mention of some fzra into the forecast.

Will also continue to mention in the hwo.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the area by 12z
thanksgiving morning. So quiet weather with temperatures returning
to a couple degrees above normal is anticipated for the holiday.

Used a blend of top performing guidance products for highs today,
then used hourly temperatures to generate an atypical diurnal
temperature trend tonight. Stayed close to the broad-based blend
of guidance products for highs on Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
issued at 341 am cst Wed nov 22 2017
the medium range ensemble means continue to indicate that
northwest flow will be present in the upper levels over the
western great lakes for the next week. Some veering is anticipated
by the middle of next week though. In the meantime, forecast
concerns mainly revolve around the impacts from the passage of a
strong cold front during the Friday-Saturday time period. Will use
a blend of the ECMWF gfs for this system.

Thursday night through Friday night... As winds shift to the south,
could see some warm advection clouds develop late Thursday night
after a mostly clear start. Dont think that saturation depth will
become sufficient for a chance of any precip. This will likely
change on Friday afternoon, when a strong shortwave pushes a cold
front across the region. Given the magnitude of the forcing, should
see at least scattered rain showers accompany the front. Most of
the shower activity should exit with the front by early Friday
evening. Cold advection will then take place on Friday night driven
by 50 kts of 850mb flow. Mid-levels look pretty dry behind the
front, while winds look too backed for much of a lake effect threat
to the vilas county snow belts. But suppose could see a few snow
showers move into far northern wi, but without much accumulations.

Should be a windy night otherwise, with some gusts greater than 30
mph. No significant changes to temps.

Rest of the forecast... The windy conditions will persist into
Saturday, with gusts greater than 30 mph possible. Trajectories
become more favorable for lake effect, which could bring a few more
snow showers into north-central wi. Regardless, should see a partly
to mostly cloudy day with highs returning into the 20s and 30s. High
pressure then builds in for Saturday night and Sunday, which should
result in a slow clearing trend. On the back side of the surface
high, strong warm advection is expected to occur early next week.

Some indications of a potent low pressure system will cross the area
by next tue, though confidence in the details is low this far out.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 341 am cst Wed nov 22 2017
ceilings may edge up slowly as the remaining stratocumulus shifts
off to the east this morning. ExpectVFR and good flying
conditions until some lower ceilings (probably MVFR or low-end
vfr) and wintry precipitation spread in from the west this
evening.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Mpc
aviation... ... .Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 11 mi53 min NNW 8 G 9.9 26°F 1023.9 hPa (+1.9)
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 39 mi53 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 25°F 1026.2 hPa (+2.0)13°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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G7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI13 mi57 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast25°F15°F66%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10W13W7W15
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1 day agoSW10SW9--W9--SW9SW5S6SE11S14S11S13S7S6--SW21
G29
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2 days agoNW14
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NW11W13W14W14W11
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G17
W7W5W5SW3SW4SW4S4SW5S3SW7SW9W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.