Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mishicot, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:27PM Friday July 21, 2017 5:44 PM CDT (22:44 UTC) Moonrise 3:36AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ542 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 329 Pm Cdt Fri Jul 21 2017
Tonight..S wind 10 to 15 kts backing se after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy fog after midnight.
Saturday..NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..E wind 5 to 10 kts veering s, then veering sw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Sunday..W wind 5 to 10 kts veering nw 10 to 15 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
LMZ542 Expires:201707220415;;611130 FZUS53 KGRB 212029 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 329 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-220415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mishicot, WI
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location: 44.31, -87.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 211933
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
233 pm cdt Fri jul 21 2017
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Short term Tonight and Saturday
issued at 228 pm cdt Fri jul 21 2017
forecast issues center on precipitation trends for the rest of
the afternoon into tonight.

Area radars this afternoon show convection mainly with the 850 mb
warm front over southern minnesota into northeast iowa and
southwest wisconsin. Initially this convection was running into
an upper ridge drifting east of the area this afternoon and
evening. Surface warm front with very unstable surface based capes
from central iowa into northern illinois. Convection passing north
of this warm front was also producing an outflow boundary over
southwest wisconsin and may hold up the warm front. So convection
will likely continue to bubble up in this area this afternoon and
evening for a focus of heavy rain.

Short range model trends are trending with heavy rain staying
more south and southwest of the area for the rest of this
afternoon and early evening into the southwest half of the state
in a region which has received several rounds of heavy rain this
week. Pwats of around 2.00 inches are progged to work into parts
of central and east central wisconsin this evening as an 850 mb
short wave trough tracks across the state. GFS and NAM attempt to
develop convection around msp early this afternoon and track it
into the state this evening producing 1 to 2 inches south of a
line from auw to grb. This has not verified so far, but needs to
be watched as mid level lapse rates were on the increase over the
north half of the state and deeper layer shear was just to the
northwest, where convection was becoming more active over northern
minnesota.

Anticipate some break in the convection Saturday morning as the
overnight system departs to the east leaving plenty of stratiform
clouds across the area. Will then increase pops in the afternoon
from the north as the mid level trough drops into the northern
great lakes region. Potential of severe weather remains as
instability will be available in the warm humid air mass while
deep layer shear is on the increase from the north.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
issued at 228 pm cdt Fri jul 21 2017
forecast focus begins with shower and thunderstorm potential
Saturday evening through Sunday evening, followed by timing of
precipitation during the midweek as a surface front moves through.

Shower thunderstorm chances persist Saturday evening with the area
still under the influence of a surface low, approaching mid-level
shortwave, and right rear quadrant of the upper-level jet. There
is potential for some stronger severe storms in the evening with
mucape anywhere from 1000-2000 j kg and surface to 6km shear
around 40 kts. With wet- bulb zero heights still somewhat high
(around 11000 to 12000 ft), would expect main concerns to be
damaging wind and brief heavy rain (pw is around 1.00 to 1.50
inches). The greatest threat is across the north, closer to the
large scale forcing, during this time.

Instability decreases overnight, then redevelops Sunday during
the late morning and afternoon. This combined with a 500mb
shortwave will once again bring the chance for showers and
storms, mainly during the afternoon. Pw is closer to 1.00 inches
and shear is weaker, but wbz heights are lower (around 9000 ft).

Some large hail and gusty winds are possible before the forcing
and instability move east of the area.

Surface high pressure and mid upper level ridging takes over for
the start of the work week, which will also bring humidity to more
comfortable levels for a couple days. Moisture returns Tuesday
afternoon with model uncertainty when it comes to the timing of a
surface cold front and associated precipitation. GFS now the
quickest bringing pcpn back to the area Tuesday afternoon, while
the ec and canadian hold off until Tuesday evening. Due to these
difference stuck with a blended solution which features chance
thunderstorms from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. It
remains too early to determine any severe potential, which will
likely be influenced by the timing of the front.

Long term models agree in weak surface high pressure building in
on Thursday, then diverge on the influence of a surface warm
front south of the area on Friday. Included southern western areas
in a slight chance pcpn on Friday for now.

Temperatures will be below normal Sunday and Monday, especially
across northern wisconsin, and then return to near normal for the
rest of the work week.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1138 am cdt Fri jul 21 2017
for the afternoon hours, thickening high level clouds
will lower to mid level during the afternoon as convection over
southeast minnesota, iowa and southwest wisconsin late morning,
gradually shift eastward. Convection has been weakening while
approaching wood county late this morning, but still anticipate
some debris type precipitation to drift across parts of central
and east central wisconsin along with patchy MVFR cigs. Trend of
most model runs this evening into Saturday morning is to shift
the heavy rain potential southward. Still anticipate CIGS lowering
to MVFR and possibly ifr for a period later tonight as the
convection passes through. These conditions may linger Saturday
morning before improving late Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Hydrology
Issued at 228 pm cdt Fri jul 21 2017
short range progs have trended with the heavier rain to slide over
southwest then southern wisconsin through tonight due to the
surface warm front appears stalled. Still a potential of heavy
rainfall of an inch or two with any storms which develop tonight
across central and east central wisconsin. Much of the area has
missed the heavier rainfall, so an inch or two will not impact
rivers much. An inch or two falling quickly over urban area may cause
some minor flooding.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Tdh
long term... ... Klb
aviation... ... .Tdh
hydrology... ... Tdh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 11 mi44 min S 6 G 8 73°F 1012.7 hPa (-0.9)
45014 36 mi44 min WSW 3.9 G 5.8 78°F 76°F1012.8 hPa (-1.2)
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 39 mi44 min S 13 G 13 71°F 1013 hPa (-0.5)69°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI13 mi48 minSE 510.00 miLight Rain78°F69°F74%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6SE4E3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmW7W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SE6SE4SE6SE6S5S4SE5
1 day agoSE5SE44S5E9E6SE7S3E6CalmW10W6W7W9NW11W7W9W10NW12NW9NW10NW8NW7W6
2 days agoS12S4SE6W5CalmCalm4W4NW4NW5N5N5CalmN3N4N5N5NE5NE7SE6SE7SE7E7E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.