Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Augusta, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:03PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 9:21 PM EDT (01:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:59AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 838 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Rest of tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely. Areas of dense fog early this evening. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this evening.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of dense fog in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Rain or snow likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less... Then 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Rain or snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain or snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ100 838 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure will track south of new england tonight. Northwesterly flow follows this system for Wednesday and Thursday. Low pressure will pass south of the waters Friday into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Augusta, ME
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location: 44.32, -69.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 290114
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
914 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will pass to our south tonight. Behind this system,
a northwesterly flow will introduce cooler and drier air into
the region for the second half of the work week. High pressure
will build into the region for Thursday. Low pressure will
approach the region for late Friday into Saturday with snow and
mixed precipitation likely for the region.

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/
01z update...

latest mesoscale guidance continues to show showers hugging the
coast with less orographic activity and little precipitation
inland except over southern nh. Will keep this trend going in
the forecast with pops closely resembling hrrr and rap
qualitatively/in shape if not quantitatively. Have tapered pops
as one moves inland. Dense fog was added everywhere and this is
more of an issue currently north of the precipitation shield as
can be expected with mixing. Expect areas of dense fog to bloom
across the south as well once rain clears out. An advisory may
be needed but have not decided on one quite yet. Otherwise rain
showers will diminish to drizzle overnight with very low
ceilings.

21z update...

have adjusted pops and QPF and corresponding snow amounts based
on the latest few runs of the hrrr which has a good handle on
the convection. One area of lift associated with a short wave
and a warm front was producing showers over southern sections of
nh and maine. Elsewhere upslope snow showers were affecting the
mountains and foothills. Precipitation chances were adjusted so
categorical pops were not broad-brushed and instead focused on
these two areas. A few other minor changes were made but nothing
to change the forecast wholesale.

Previous discussion...

a weak shortwave impulse on GOES water vapor imagery was
crossing the mid atlantic region with a 1009 millibar surface
reflection over the DELMARVA region and a weak surface boundary
extending northward into western new england. Widespread low
clouds remained across the region at moment. NWS doppler radar
mosaic showed an expanding area of precipitation across the mid
atlantic to southwestern new england that will cross southern
new hampshire and adjacent southwest coastal maine during the
late afternoon and early evening hours. Elsewhere... Only
scattered precipitation is likely as a cold front over quebec
drops southward across the region overnight. The activity should
taper quickly after midnight as the surface low and shortwave
impulse race offshore.

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/
On Wednesday... A freshening northerly breeze in the wake of the
departing coastal low with a few clouds and upslope snow or
rain showers across the higher terrain. Highs will range from
near 40 in the mountains to near 50 over southeast new
hampshire. Some lingering upslope clouds and snow showers
Wednesday night in the mountains... Otherwise mostly clear
elsewhere with a diminishing northerly breeze and the surface
high begins building into eastern new england. Lows will range
from the mid 20s to around 30.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
Confidence is gradually increasing for a fairly significant late
season snow and/or mixed precipitation event starting Friday and
lasting into Saturday. 12z deterministic guidance is in general
agreement today on track of short wave troughs and attendant sfc
low pressure along with subsequent heavy snowfall for at least
the southern half of the cwa. The ECMWF ensemble probabilities
for 6 or more inches of snow have steadily increased over the
last 24 hours, now offering a 50-70 percent chance of 6"+ to a
fairly good chunk of the cwa.

However, with that said, we are still at least 3 days out and
even tight ensemble consensus can still go awry at this time
range. There are also questions about boundary layer
temperatures and perhaps even some warm mid level temps creeping
into southernmost zones. The track of the overall system could
still push further south also. These issues can certainly be the
cause of a lighter snowfall. So being a bit conservative in the
forecast temperature/qpf/snow grids is prudent at this time.

However, we did lower sfc temps Friday afternoon and night as most
raw model guidance slams sfc temps down to 31-33 degrees as
strong uvvs move into the area and allow for cooling via lift,
evaporation, and melting.

At this time I would expect at least interior southern zones to
pick up a plowable snowfall starting Friday afternoon or evening
and ending Saturday. However, there is low confidence at this
time for a lot more over a wide area, although possible. Bears
watch for sure. A heavier snowfall this time of year would
probably cause power outage issues.

Aviation /01z Wednesday through Sunday/
Short term... Ifr to lifr conditions persist for all TAF sites
through the overnight hours in low stratus and areas of dense
fog... As well as -shra and -dz along the coast as well as hie,
con, and mht. Look for improvement toVFR during Wednesday
morning for most terminals although moisture trapped under an
inversion may make improvement slow going for mountain
terminals. NW winds will eventually gust to btw 20 and 25 kt
in the afternoon. Sct MVFR conditions will be psb in mtns once
again in -shra/-shsn.

Long term... Ifr conditions possible in snow and mixed
precipitation starting Friday and lasting into Saturday.

Conditions likely improve Saturday night and Sunday.

Marine
Short term... Winds and seas will remain below small craft
through Wednesday afternoon. Conditions will reach small craft
advisory threshold by Wednesday evening outside the bays in
strengthening northerly flow.

Long term... SCA conditions will subside Thursday. They will once
again be possible over the weekend as low pressure passes to the
south of the waters.

Tides/coastal flooding
We're entering the period of high astronomical tides. The
Wednesday and Thursday night high tides... At 105 am Thursday
and 152 am Friday respectfully are 11.1 ft mllw (referenced to
portland harbor with a 12.0 ft mllw flood stage). Fortunately
the flow will be offshore so no problems are anticipated with
these particular tides. However, the Friday night high tide at
243 am is an 11.0 ft mllw. With potential for a strengthening
onshore flow prior to this particular high tide cycle... We will
need to monitor this time period for possible coastal flooding
and beach erosion.

Gyx watches/warnings/advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Hanes
short term... Schwibs
long term... Ekster


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 45 mi77 min E 3.9 G 5.8 36°F 36°F2 ft1016 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 47 mi77 min E 7.8 G 7.8 36°F 38°F3 ft1015.8 hPa
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 52 mi51 min 37°F 37°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Augusta, Augusta State Airport, ME2 mi28 minS 44.00 miFog/Mist34°F32°F92%1016.6 hPa
Waterville, Waterville Robert LaFleur Airport, ME16 mi25 minN 00.50 miLight Rain Fog34°F33°F97%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from AUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N8N6N7N8N6N5N5N5N6N4NE6CalmCalmCalmSE4S4S3S3S5S5S43S4
1 day agoS4S6S4S4SE6SE6SE5SE5SE5SE7E4E5E5SE6SE6E4E5E4E7E6NE6NE7N6N7
2 days agoN8NW4CalmN8N7N7N6N5N5N6NE11NE9N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SW765S6

Tide / Current Tables for Augusta, Kennebec River, Maine
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Augusta
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:40 AM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:15 AM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:02 PM EDT     4.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:38 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.31.73.34.44.64.33.72.71.60.7-0.1-0.4-0.11.12.84.24.84.64.13.22.110.1-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Gardiner, Kennebec River, Maine
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Gardiner
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:21 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:10 AM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:42 PM EDT     5.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:33 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.63.44.95.65.64.93.82.41-0.1-0.5-0.212.84.55.65.85.44.431.50.3-0.4-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.