Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 11:17 PM   Moonset 6:53 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 262333 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 733 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure allowed temperatures to return to near normal today.
Expect a slight warm up over the weekend, with temperatures reaching into the upper 60s in the warmest locations Sunday. A number of weak shortwaves will pass over Vermont and Northern New York during the forecast period, with widespread, light precipitation in the forecast over the weekend and beyond.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 639 PM EDT Friday...The forecast remains on track.
Lowered dew points slightly for the early evening to reflect observations, but with mixing decreasing overnight, dew points should rise back to where they were originally forecast later this evening. Skies remain clear with the high clouds still well to the west over Ontario
Previous discussion follows

Previous discussion...High pressure will continue to keep the skies clear overnight, once again allowing our temperatures to fall below freezing in some of the cold hollows. The western flanks of our CWA will see some clouds with a slight chance of light rain moving in ahead of a low pressure system by the later morning Saturday. Dry air trapped in the boundary layer will ensure qpf amounts remain low.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 301 PM EDT Friday...Mostly cloudy conditions are expected to prevail across the region Sunday into Sunday night as an 850mb warm front translates the area during the daylight hours from west- to-east. Continues to appear in NAM forecast soundings that some modest elevated instability will be present within the frontal zone, and continued with the idea of scattered showers on Sunday, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Most areas will see only light precipitation amounts, mainly 0.10" or less.
However, given the increase in PW values above 1" and MUCAPE up to 500 J/kg, localized areas that do see a heavier shower or embedded thunderstorm could see locally higher rainfall, perhaps up to 0.25" to 0.50". Highest PoPs of 40- 60% will be across far northern VT and into the St. Lawrence Valley of northern NY.
Despite the cloudiness, developing south winds of 10- 15 mph (and gusts locally 20-25 mph in the Champlain Valley) will allow for temperatures slightly above seasonal averages for late April...generally reaching 65-70F across most locations of the North Country. Warmest readings should be in the CT River Valley, the Champlain Valley, and St. Lawrence county.

Heading into Sunday night, a trailing cold front settles sewd from Ontario and swrn Quebec, bringing lingering chances for some light rain shower activity, generally before 04Z before dissipating overnight. Highest PoPs will again be across northern sections, with PoPs near 40% along the intl border. Should see a NW wind shift with moderately strong CAA as surface ridging builds into our region after midnight. Overnight lows generally in the mid 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 301 PM EDT Friday...Recent NWP trends continue slightly cooler for both Monday and Tuesday. Canadian high pressure and a swd extending ridge across into nrn NY and VT on Monday will support northerly winds, and a shallow cool air mass advecting southward across our region early Monday. Abundant stratus are likely Monday morning, but given the late April sun angle, should see developing partly to mostly sunny conditions by afternoon as clouds will gradually mix out. That will help temperatures reach the mid 60s, but not the mid 70s which appeared likely a couple days ago. Ridge axis shifts eastward Monday night into Tuesday, allowing a mid-level trough to bring widespread clouds and showers to the region throughout the day Tuesday. Have indicated relatively high PoPs (70-80%). Looking for high temperatures on Tuesday in the upper 50s to mid 60s across VT (coolest east of the Green Mtns) and generally in the mid-upper 60s across northern NY. Once this trough shifts to the east Tuesday night, should see generally drier conditions across the North Country through the end of the work week. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs generally in the mid-upper 60s.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through the entire TAF period at all terminals. Winds will remain relatively light tonight before increasing a bit during the day tomorrow. Gusts up to 20 KTs are possible at any terminal. Winds will also shift to southerly and southwesterly tomorrow. High clouds will overspread the region tomorrow from west to east. Some rain showers look to arrive at MSS tomorrow evening and they will lower ceilings a bit.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 29: KBTV: 55/2013 KPBG: 57/1974

April 30: KPBG: 54/2004

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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