Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Willsboro, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:08PM Friday March 22, 2019 8:30 PM EDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 8:06AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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location: 44.32, -73.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 222325
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
725 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
A late season winter storm will continue to bring accumulating
moderate to locally heavy snowfall to the region tonight into
Saturday morning before high pressure builds into the region for
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. A strong cold front will
bring some scattered rain and snow showers Sunday afternoon and
night as well as much colder air for next Monday and Tuesday. Milder
temperatures are expected from the middle to end of next week with
40s expected for Thursday and 50s on Friday.

Near term through Saturday night
As of 715 pm edt Friday... The upslope snow machine is in full
force this evening with webcams along the spine of the green
mountains showing 1-2 inches snowfall rates with a few locations
closer to summit level showing a few 3 inch per hour reports.

Looking at ASOS and AWOS stations across the north country,
liquid amounts associated with the falling snowfall have been
steadily dropping which corresponds to drier snow ratios
developing. The champlain valley, both the ny and vt side,
continue to be stubborn with dewpoints at or above freezing with
temperatures above freezing. With the strengthening cold air
advection, these temps should drop below freezing between 9 and
10 pm with snowfall more likely to "stick" at this point.

Snowfall amounts will vary through the overnight period with the
champlain valley struggling the most with 2-4 inches near the
lake and 3-6 inches as you head away from the lake. Higher
elevations above 1500 ft continue to look primed for 6-12 inches
with locally higher amounts.

Previous discussion... Phase 1 of this late winter storm is
complete, now onto phase 2. It was a very interesting day across
the region as it precipitated all day but from the champlain
valley westward precip remained very light with little snow
accumulation and or rain, while eastward a mesoscale snow band
set up for several hours and dumped nearly a foot of
accumulation from the waitsfield warren area northeast through
washington orange counties to the higher elevations of western
caledonia county. As the band dissipated we've seen some lighter
radar returns through the early afternoon as the surface low
tracked toward the maine coast, but moving into the late
afternoon and overnight hours the second phase of this storm
remains on track for upslope snow to develop across the western
slopes of the adirondacks and northern greens as the surface to
mid-level flow shifts to the north northwest. Forecast froude
#'s show the low level flow becoming increasingly blocked
indicating snow will back up into western portions of chittenden
and franklin counties of vermont where we've upgraded to a
winter storm warning. As we've been highlighting in previous
discussions, there will be a strong elevational dependence to
snow totals overnight with locations along lake champlain only
seeing 2-5", while eastern portions of the counties only a few
hundred feet higher in elevation will reach warning criteria of
8-12". All other headlines totals remain intact through Saturday
morning with additional amounts of 6-12" across the st.

Lawrence valley and north-central northeast vermont, and 8-16"
across the adirondacks. For the remainder of the champlain
valley and lower connecticut river valley additional
accumulations will only be in the 2-6" range.

In regards to snow ratio, the snow that fell today was quite dense
due to marginal boundary layer temperatures and an abundance of
moisture which resulted in several thousand power outages. Going
into tonight though as cold air filters into the region we expect a
higher ratios snowfall which should alleviate power outage problems.

One factor that could impact that though will be increasing westerly
winds which will gust into the 25-35 mph range through Saturday
morning. Should see some areas of blowing and drifting snow which
could bring additional travel impacts as well.

Snow rapidly decreases in coverage Saturday morning as high pressure
builds in from the great lakes with morning temps chilly in the
teens and 20s warming into the 20s and low 30s as sunshine breaks
out in the afternoon. A clear and cold night follows with lows back
into the teens and 20s.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
As of 325 pm edt Friday... Dry conditions expected Sunday
morning as surface high pressure retreats off the us east coast.

A beautiful day will be in store as we warm into the mid 40s,
with 30s at the high peaks. Late Sunday evening, increasing
moisture and convergence ahead of a cold front will lead to
light precipitation. However, as the front pushes south across
the north country, deep moisture will get shunted eastwards and
precipitation will wane is it moves south. A quick 1-2" of snow
will be possible along the international border and higher
terrain with a half inch or less elsewhere. Heading into Monday
morning, precipitation will be ending.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 325 pm edt Friday... Dry conditions prevail much of the
long term. Large scale troughing across eastern north america
will give us a couple cool days with below average temperatures
in the mid 20s to low 30s. On Wednesday, a strong, positively
tilted ridge will allow temperatures to moderate whilst
maintaining dry conditions across the area. Upper ridge axis
pushes east with southwesterly flow becoming established. A
strong cyclone shifts towards the hudson bay in canada on
Thursday and new england becomes placed in a broad warm sector.

Warm advection should be very efficient with a strong warming
trend late next week. The ECMWF has 925mb temps approaching 10 c
on Friday. Some slight precipitation chances will be possible
with the warm front Thursday Friday, but at this time appears
minimal. Current high temperature forecast for next Friday is in
the mid to upper 50s, with the upper range of ekdmos ensembles
indicating some low 60s are not off the table. Quite the
contrast to this current Friday.

Aviation 23z Friday through Wednesday
Through 00z Sunday... Expect widespread ifr to lifr conditions
through the overnight hours with visibilities generally 1 mile
or less with ceilings 400 to 1500 ft. Kpbg is the outlier as
they remain rain and MVFR this evening but between 02z and 03z
they should switch over to snow and join the ranks with the rest
of the terminals at ifr or lower. Gusty northwest winds will
continue to develop with winds peaking between the 06z and 12z
time frame at 20 to 30 knots. Come 12z Saturday, conditions will
quickly improve from west to east with drier air quickly
overspreading the region. This should yield conditions improving
quickly to MVFR and ultimatelyVFR conditions between 18z and
21z. The gusty winds will persist through the say Saturday and
begin to weaken around 21z.

Outlook...

Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shsn,
chance shra.

Monday:VFR. Slight chance shsn.

Monday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for vtz002>008-
010-016>019.

Winter weather advisory until noon edt Saturday for vtz001-009-
011-012.

Ny... Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for nyz026-027-
029>031-034-087.

Winter weather advisory until noon edt Saturday for nyz028-035.

Synopsis... Lahiff
near term... Clay lahiff
short term... Haynes
long term... Haynes
aviation... Clay


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT14 mi37 minNNW 13 G 229.00 miLight Rain35°F33°F93%991.6 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY24 mi38 minNW 14 G 238.00 miOvercast1°F0°F%992.4 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--S3S5CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3E3E4NE4E3CalmNW5NW6NW10N10NW11N14NW18
G23
NW16
G26
N16NW9NW13
G22
1 day agoS7S5S5CalmS10S13S15
G21
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G19
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G24
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G19
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G27
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S9S8S7
2 days agoSW3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3S8S10S10S11S11
G19
S11
G17
SE9S10S10
G17
S10S11S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.