Thursday, May23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Willsboro, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday May 23, 2019 11:13 AM EDT (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 12:04AMMoonset 9:19AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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location: 44.32, -73.32     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 231358
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
958 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Active weather returns to the north country today as an upper-level
disturbance approaches from southeast ontario. With temperatures
climbing into the 70s and increasing humidity, showers and
thunderstorms will develop during the early to mid afternoon hours
in northern new york, before tracking rapidly eastward into vermont
during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few severe storms are
possible, with damaging winds and small hail the primary
threat. Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy
rainfall is also expected. Showers and low clouds will linger
overnight tonight. Drier and slightly cooler weather returns
Friday with northerly winds and highs in the 60s. The next
frontal system brings a renewed threat of showers and
thunderstorms late in the day Saturday into Saturday night.

Near term through Friday
As of 955 am edt Thursday... No significant changes were needed
with this update. Conditions still look on track for potential
strong severe storms this afternoon, but will keep a close eye
on upstream radar trends and 12z model guidance. Made a few
tweaks to sky cover to match the latest satellite imagery, but
overall the forecast remains in good shape.

Previous discussion... Potential for severe convection with
localized damaging winds remain the primary forecast concern for
today. Vigorous 700-500mb shortwave trough over the western
great lakes and arrowhead of mn will translate steadily ewd
today, inducing increasing cyclonic flow and strong mid-level
height falls across NRN ny and vt beginning around 20-21z this
afternoon. The mid-level shortwave trough is accompanied by a
70-80kt 500mb jet (and 60kt sfc-6km bulk shear), and the north
country will be in the favorable left exit region of the jet
streak as we head through the afternoon hours. Also impressive
are the mid-level lapse rates in association with a well-
defined elevated mixed- layer, near 9 c km through >2km depth
per 00z apx sounding and SPC mesoanalysis across lower michigan
and lake huron. These favorably steep lapse rates will advect
ewd across our region this afternoon which will enhance
potential convective updraft strength in the prevailing large-
scale environment.

Low-level moisture will be primary limiting factor for
widespread severe weather today, but low 60s dewpoints over wrn
pa and nern oh will attempt to surge rapidly nnewd in advance
of approaching trough into NRN ny this afternoon as south to
southwest winds increase to 10-20 mph across the north country.

The 00z nam, gfs, and high resolution cams have generally
trended slightly more moist, which will aid in surface-based
instability during peak daytime heating this afternoon. Based on
href and operational nwp suite, appears SBCAPE values will reach
around 1000 j kg from the champlain valley wwd across nrn
ny... Perhaps slightly higher in the st. Lawrence valley with
best low-level moisture return. Further east, CAPE generally 500
j kg or less across central ERN vt late this afternoon and

As pre-frontal trough develops across the ottawa valley swd into
w-central ny, should see convective initiation occur with
scattered cellular convection developing 17-19z. With
strengthening deep-layer westerly flow fields, the 00z nam
storm motion vectors are east at 30-40 mph, and storms will
quickly move ewd across NRN ny and into the champlain valley by
20-21z, and eventually across central ERN vt during the early
evening hours. QG and jet dynamics and favorable deep- layer
shear will drive convective organization. While not significant,
there should be adequate CAPE as afternoon pbl temps reach the
mid 70s to maintain a severe threat across NRN ny into western
vt. Further east, it will become more difficult with lower pbl
moisture instability east of the green mtns. Stronger convective
cells and possible small-scale bowing segments will have the
potential to produce localized damaging wind gusts this
afternoon evening with strong low-mid level shear. Marginal cape
will probably limit large hail threat, and despite strong low-
level srh, low pbl rh and mainly 50s dewpoints will limit
tornado threat. Briefly heavy rain is possible, but quick storm
motions should preclude a flash flood threat. We'll continue
mention these convective threats in the morning hazardous
weather outlook issuance.

Lingering showers will accompany a cold frontal passage tonight,
and as winds become northwesterly, appears stratus layer will
develop within frontal inversion layer, especially after 06z.

Appears we'll continue to deal with orographically-induced
shower activity and maybe some patchy drizzle through early
Friday morning. Kept 30-50 pops during the overnight
hours... Highest in orographically favored spots across the nrn
green mtns and NRN adirondacks. Overnight lows will generally
range from the low-mid 50s. Clearing will be very gradual on
Friday with continued north winds 10-15 mph. Will result in a
cooler day with valley highs generally in the mid 60s.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 312 am edt Thursday... Dry weather will continue into Friday
night as high pressure crests overhead. Winds will be light and
low temperatures will be in the 40s to around 50. A warm front
will move into the region during the day Saturday, accompanied
by strong moisture influx and warm air advection. The system has
trended slightly slower over the past few model runs, and as
such have slowed down the arrival of associated precipitation.

Saturday morning through early afternoon will be mainly dry,
although cloud cover will increase through the morning as the
warm front approaches from the southwest. Precipitation will
begin Saturday evening through early Saturday night as the upper
ridge axis moves to the east and a surface trough moves though.

The overnight timing of the forcing will detract from the
thunderstorm potential as instability will not be maximized,
however given that the area will remain within the warm sector
of a low pressure system to our north, an isolated rumble of
thunder can't be ruled out. Continuing to see some signals that
would support some heavy rainfall at times Saturday evening
through early Saturday night... Namely pw values progged > 1.5"
and deep warm cloud layer.

Precipitation will taper off late Saturday night as the trough
and the best moisture move east of the area. There could be some
light lingering showers through the remainder of the night, but
for the most part the area will be dry by daybreak Sunday
morning. Lows Sunday night will be in the 50s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 312 am edt Thursday... Low clouds will mix out fairly quickly
Sunday morning, which will allow temperatures to quickly rise
into the low to mid 70s by Sunday afternoon. As low-level lapse
rates steepen through the day, CAPE values will climb to 500+
j kg. This will allow for the development of some convective
showers with the potential for some embedded thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours as shortwave energy approaches from
the northwest. At this time, it doesn't appear there will be any
strong surface boundaries moving through during the peak
heating hours Sunday. The resultant lack of low-level
convergence will limit the coverage of showers convection,
however with the upper-level wave moving through and decent
instability, orographic forcing will likely suffice to get some
showers started. A cold front will sweep through early Sunday
night, followed by drier and slightly cooler weather Monday
through Monday night.

The middle of next week will feature a progressive weather
pattern as the forecast area remains in the fast flow on the
northern periphery of a strong southeastern us ridge.

Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal norms, and
chances for precipitation will increase mid-week as multiple
fast moving systems lift out of the plains and round the ridge
top through new england.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Through 12z Friday... MainlyVFR conditions through 18z with
sct-bkn050-080. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
mainly 18-21z across NRN ny, and 21-00z across vt, resulting in
brief periods of MVFR ifr conditions at the TAF locations.

Strong gusty winds are possible with any of the thunderstorms,
along with brief heavy rainfall. Light and variable winds for
the pre-dawn period. South winds increase to 10-15kts through
the daytime hours, then cold frontal passage brings a
northwesterly wind shift after 00z with stratus layer resulting
in developing MVFR ceilings and hir trrn obscd across the north
country during Friday night. May see a few lingering rain
showers overnight tonight, or even some patchy drizzle with
residual stratus layer in place.


Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance shra.

Friday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Saturday:VFR. Chance shra.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Likely shra.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Sunday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Memorial day: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

A lake wind advisory is in effect, as south winds increase to
15-25 knots across lake champlain this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are also expected, mainly late this afternoon
into the early evening hours.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos hastings
short term... Rsd
long term... Rsd
aviation... Banacos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT14 mi20 minS 15 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F43°F39%1016 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY24 mi21 minSSE 1310.00 miFair67°F44°F44%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN11NW11
1 day agoNW14
2 days agoS12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.