Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Willsboro, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 7:52PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 2:18 PM EDT (18:18 UTC) Moonrise 5:43AMMoonset 6:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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location: 44.32, -73.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 251739
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
139 pm edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
Clouds and moisture from a low pressure area along the mid
atlantic coast will move north into the region today, with rain
showers developing across the north country this afternoon
and tonight. Rain showers will continue tonight and into
Wednesday. Expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies Wednesday
night. Thursday will see warmer temperatures with highs in the
70s under partly sunny skies.

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/
As of 107 pm edt Tuesday... Going forecast in good shape with
just some minor tweaks to match current conditions. Light rain
continues to spread northward... But key word is light and have
adjusted wording to indicate the lighter nature of the
precipitation this afternoon.

Previous discussion... Quick update based on satellite, radar
and surface observation trends. Band of rain, most of it on the
light side, is pushing northward at a steady pace and on the
doorstep of rutland and windsor counties. Hrrr has a pretty good
handle on the current situation, with some of the other hi- res
models not too different as well, so relied on that for
updating the precipitation movement the next 12 hours or so.

Looking at a steady progression northward, with the rain
reaching the us/canada border early this afternoon. With a
relatively dry airmass in place, the rain won't be heavy,
looking at mainly rainfall totals <0.15" or so. Expecting less
across the champlain valley as strengthening southeast winds
will lead to downslope shadowing and lesser amounts. However,
some enhancement is expected on the eastern slopes of the
central/southern greens, so local totals around 1/4" are
possible.

Those southeast winds do strengthen as the day GOES on, with the
nam indicating about 40kts between 925mb-850mb (roughly
2000-4500ft). As a result, we should see some gusty downslope
winds develop along the immediate western slopes of the green
mountains. However, the expected rainfall should keep the lowest
part of the boundary layer stabilized enough that the strongest
of winds won't make it to the surface. Still looking at probably
gusts on the order of 25-35 mph.

Models do show a break in the precipitation late today/this
evening, with a another round of deeper moisture moving in
overnight. Noted that showalter values decrease associated with
some instability aloft at that time, so expecting the character
of the precipitation to turn more showery overnight.

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night/
As of 418 am edt Tuesday... Expecting rain showers to continue
into Wednesday morning as the closed upper low and the surface
low will be coincident with each other south of long island new
york Wednesday morning. This low will then move east and be over
cape cod Wednesday night. Expecting the north country to be
partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night, but remaining dry.

Models showing upper ridge to build into the region by late
Wednesday night.

Long term /Thursday through Monday/
As of 420 am edt Tuesday... Not much change in the forecast but
overall active period during the long term. The period will
start off dry as rain showers associated with coastal low
continue to move east. Some lingering clouds may limit warming
over eastern vermont, but generally expect temperatures in the
70s.

Thursday night into Friday will have chance for showers and
possible thunderstorms that are expected to move west to east
across the north country as a long wave 500mb trough becomes
negatively titled over ontario, extending into the eastern great
lakes. Reflected at the surface, a front boundary will provide
the lift for these showers... Clearing the area by Friday night.

Heading into the weekend, a bermuda high looks to develop at
the surface and aloft. Several areas of vorticity at 500mb will
move from SW towards southern quebec and possibly impact the
north country through Saturday night.

On Sunday, canadian high pressure centered around james bay
will retreat north and east as strengthening closed surface low
moves northward from texas towards the western great lakes by
late Sunday. A warm front ahead of the low looks to bring more
showers by Sunday night. GFS and ECMWF still show differences on
evolution and track of this system, but strong low level jet
associated with cold front will create good moisture plume from
the gulf of mexico northward. Expect this cold front to move
into the north country sometime Monday. Overall expect this
system to be capable of producing heavy rainfall and strong
winds from tight pressure gradient and strengthening of low.

Also, thunderstorm activity expected ahead and along the cold
front as GFS indicates 500-1000 j/kg in the st lawrence valley
and negative lifted indices.

Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/
Through 18z Wednesday... Currently have a band of light rain
pushing northward across the region. Despite the precipitation,
vfr conditions continue with ceilings generally 4000-7000ft and
no obstructions to visibility. Have some gusty southeast
surface winds (25-30kt) at some locations, primarily western
sides of mountains. Thus far, rut is mainly seeing those winds,
though occasional gusts are reaching btv as well.

Pretty much little change through 22z or so. Expect another
batch of showers to move in for the evening/overnight. Also
suspect lower ceilings that are currently found south of the
region will move northward as well. Much of the guidance
indicates MVFR ceilings to become pretty widespread after 06z.

Ifr ceilings are also possible for eastern vermont (eg: mpv).

Expect some light fog to also develop at many TAF locations,
providing MVFR visibilities. Precipitation should pretty much
finish up by 12z or so, with only a slow progress towardVFR for
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance shra... Tsra.

Friday:VFR. Chance shra... Tsra.

Friday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Saturday:VFR. Chance shra.

Saturday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Sunday:VFR. Chance shra.

Btv watches/warnings/advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Wgh
near term... Evenson/nash
short term... Wgh
long term... Kgm
aviation... Nash


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT14 mi25 minSSE 13 G 2010.00 miLight Rain56°F37°F49%1022.9 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY24 mi26 minSSE 1210.00 miLight Rain54°F41°F62%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10NW14N11NW12NW10NW8NW6NW7N5W3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNW4CalmSW44S6
G15
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1 day ago--SE7S7S14S6SW5S5S4W8N9N8N5N8N7N9N7NW8N9N12N9NW12NW12
G16
NW12NW9
2 days agoN5N6N7N9NW7N6CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS34CalmS6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.