Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Willsboro, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:05PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 7:17 AM EDT (11:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:39AMMoonset 5:28PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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location: 44.32, -73.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 170719
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
319 am edt Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis
Strong high pressure will bring dry weather through the
remainder of the week. After a chilly start this morning, a
warming trend will commence as winds switch into the south to
southwest this afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 50s today
will moderate into the 60s to low 70s during the next 5 to 7
days, which will be well-above average for mid-october.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 258 am edt Tuesday... Synoptically quiescent conditions
with clear skies and sfc anticyclone bisecting the north country
early this morning. Light winds in place and will see areas of
frost early this morning, with patchy fog in the valleys of
central ERN vt. A chilly start with sunrise temps generally
25-35f, warmest near lake champlain. Currently 36f at btv at
07z. Will likely see the first freeze of the fall locally here
at the airport around 6am.

Sfc ridge slides east of vt by 18z inducing a s-sw return flow.

Winds increase to 5-10mph across central ERN vt, 10-15 mph in
the champlain valley, and locally 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
in the st. Lawrence valley with stronger p-gradient and valley
channeled flow. Will see temps moderate a bit with just passing
thin mid-upr level clouds. Afternoon highs expected to range
from the low 50s east of the green mtns, to the upr 50s in the
champlain valley, and generally 55-60f across NRN ny. Pops nil.

Quiet conditions persist tonight thru Wednesday. Continued s-sw
gradient flow will mean pbl remains mixed in most locations and
temperatures won't be as cool. Lows tonight generally mid 40s
for the st. Lawrence and champlain valleys, and mid-upr 30s
across the NRN adirondacks and ERN vt. Highs on Wednesday will
moderate into the mid 60s in most valley locations.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 250 am edt Tuesday... High pressure at the surface will
continue as an upper level shortwave crosses to our north. Given
the last trends in guidance and the lack of precipitable water
(< 0.8"), i've gone ahead and removed mention of any precip
over the northern tier of vermont. Anticipate some clouds moving
into the north country and a subtle wind shift from south
westerly winds to westerly winds. There should be some funneling
up the saint lawrence and champlain valleys so it should be
pretty breezy in the saint lawrence Thursday afternoon. I've
increased gusts to 20-30mph out of the south just ahead of the
frontal passage. Winds in the higher terrain should be fairly
brisk. 850-700mb winds should be in 45-50kt range. Otherwise it
should be just another warm day in the north country with temps
around 70 in the valleys and upper 60s elsewhere. We cool down
briefly but not even close to near normal on the backside of the
front as temps overnight fall into the low to mid 40s.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 250 am edt Tuesday... Heading into the weekend the high
pressure returns as a broad 1025mb high develops over the
eastern conus. The ridge remains firmly in place through the
weekend as anticyclonic flow brings warm air advection into the
north country. Temps will warm 2-3 degrees each day of the
weekend with low 70s likely for Sunday. That certainly wont help
our departures from normal which as of this morning is a full 9
degrees above normal for the month.

Coming out of the weekend all of the longer ranged solutions
are pointing towards a full latitude trough digging into the
eastern CONUS which will bring showers to the region. Based on
some of the thermal packing along with that front it should be
more of our "normal" fall frontal systems with a 10-15 degree
drop in temps by Wednesday back to near normal.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Saturday
Through 12z Wednesday... High pressure in control with dry wx.

MainlyVFR thru the period, with just passing mid-upper level
clouds this afternoon eve, and possible sct-bkn040-050 at slk
tonight with swly flow regime and orographic ascent. Otherwise,
will be watching for brief fog at mpv 08-12z Tue time frame,
with intervals of lifr possible. Winds light and variable thru
mid-morning. As sfc ridge axis slides east of TAF locations,
will see developing south to southwest winds... Sw 14g24kt at
kmss and S 10kt at btv. Winds will remain s-sw throughout tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday:VFR. Breezy. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Freeze warning until 8 am edt this morning for vtz002-005-009.

Frost advisory until 8 am edt this morning for vtz001.

Ny... Freeze warning until 8 am edt this morning for nyz028-035.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos
short term... Deal
long term... Deal
aviation... Banacos


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45178 20 mi78 min W 14 37°F 60°F1026 hPa (+3.4)
45166 32 mi33 min W 9.7 G 12 42°F 62°F1 ft35°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT14 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair32°F30°F92%1025.6 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY24 mi25 minW 410.00 miFair33°F28°F82%1025.3 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12NW14
G20
NW15
G20
N11N15
G23
N10N11NW12N8NW6NW7NW9NW11NW12NW9NW7NW7NW7NW3CalmCalmE3CalmCalm
1 day agoS18
G28
S19
G26
S16
G28
S16
G29
S22
G31
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G30
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G32
S13
G21
SW15
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G26
S17
G28
S18
G26
S19
G30
S13
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SW11SW13
G19
W8
G19
NW17
G29
NW16
G24
NW10
G24
NW16
G25
N20
G25
N15N14
2 days agoS5S8S8S11SW7S10S9S9S5CalmCalmCalmSE3S3S4CalmCalmCalmE3S3S5S5S9S14
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.