Sunday, February17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Willsboro, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:25PM Sunday February 17, 2019 8:56 PM EST (01:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:02PMMoonset 6:27AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Willsboro, NY
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location: 44.32, -73.32     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 172339
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
639 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Light snow will overspread the north country after midnight
tonight and continue through at least midday on Monday before
tapering off. Snow accumulations will range from an inch near
the canadian border and up to three inches across southern
vermont. High pressure builds into the region Monday night for
colder and drier weather with temperatures dropping into the
single digits above and below zero. Sunny and dry weather is
expected on Tuesday.

Near term through Monday night
As of 619 pm est Sunday... No changes needed with this update.

Current forecast in good shape with things continuing to look
on track for light snowfall overnight tonight into tomorrow
based on latest upstream observations.

Previous discussion...

forecast remains on track for a light snow event to move into
the area after midnight tonight and continue through midday on
Monday before tapering off from northwest to southeast across
the area. Looking at around an inch along the canadian border to
around three inches across rutland and windsor counties.

Clouds will continue to be on the increase tonight as upstream
shortwave trough moves toward the region. Strongest warm air
advection stays south across southern new england while weak
shortwave trough moves east-northeast across our area.

Frontogenesis will strengthen across southern areas and there
will be a second area of frontogenesis over northern areas in
response to the 850 mb low tracking across northern new york and
northern vermont. Shortwave trough moves east of the area Monday
afternoon and this will help to decrease the precipitation. High
pressure builds in Monday night and with clearing skies and cold
air advection lows will drop into the single digits above and
below zero.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
As of 312 pm est Sunday... High pressure will be in control with
light northwesterly winds for much of the day becoming more
variable and then southerly as the day progresses. No
precipitation is in the forecast. Despite plentiful sunshine and
the brilliant february sun, cold air advection will keep
temperatures below normal with highs in the teens to low 20s.

Overnight lows will be tricky with some mid-level clouds that
will begin to move into the area late Tuesday night, limiting
optimal radiational cooling. Lows should roughly range between
-5 and +5 f, but could be cooler across the adirondacks should
mid-level clouds come in more slowly than currently forecast.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 312 pm est Sunday... The long term forecast starts dry for
Wednesday with a sharp ridge axis cresting over the forecast
area. Flow quickly switches from northwesterly to southwesterly
in response, which will begin a warming trend. A fairly weak
double-barrel low scenario will unfold late Wednesday into
Thursday as upper shortwave lifts from the central plains into
ontario. While we do not get much of the dynamics associated
with this shortwave, we should see some precipitation from the
surface low's warm front late Wednesday into Thursday. Good low-
level convergence, isentropic upglide, and our placement within
the right entrance region of a strong jet should be enough to
support modest lift needed for precipitation. Unfortunately,
warm air advection will allow temperatures aloft to warm above 0
f. A mix of sleet and freezing rain appears increasingly likely
before transitioning to rain. A coastal low will begin to
develop, but it develops late and better moisture will remain to
our south with the north country in the dry slot of the lifting
low. So expect precipitation to quickly come to an end, which
should also limit the duration of mixed precipitation

Ridging quickly builds in behind the system, which will likely
result in temperatures near to above seasonal norms with dry
conditions for much of the weekend. The next system looks to
approach the area next Sunday, with a fairly similar set up to the
mid-week system.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Through 00z Tuesday...VFR through 06z... Then as a low pressure
system approaches the region ceilings and visibilities will be
lowering with fairly widespread ifr conditions expected,
especially between 10z and 16z when light snow moves into the
area. Bottom line can see a lot of 1 to 3 mile visibilities and
1000-3000 foot ceilings during the 10z to 16z time period with
slowly improving conditions after 16z as the low moves well
southeast of the area. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less
through the period.


Monday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday:VFR. Slight chance sn.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR and ifr possible.

Likely sn.

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Chance ra, chance
sn, chance fzra, chance pl.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance shsn.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Evenson
near term... Evenson larocca
short term... Haynes
long term... Haynes
aviation... Evenson neiles

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT14 mi63 minNW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy13°F1°F61%1019.2 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY24 mi64 minNW 310.00 miFair13°F3°F64%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW11N12N5N6N5N4CalmNE4NE4N3N4N4N6Calm3NW5NW7NW6NW6N4NW5NW5NW4NW3
1 day agoW11SW3CalmW8
2 days agoCalmCalmSE4SE5SE4S6S9S5SE10SE3SE4S5SE10SE10SE9SE8S5E6E5SE7SE6W9W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.