Wednesday, June28, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Marshfield, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:08AMSunset 8:43PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 1:27 PM EDT (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 11:57PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshfield, VT
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location: 44.36, -72.29     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 281421
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1021 am edt Wed jun 28 2017

A relatively dry day is expected today in comparison to Tuesday
with the areal coverage of showers being a bit limited this
afternoon. The best chance to see any showers will be across
north central and northeast vermont with just a slight chance
elsewhere. It is still looking like a pattern change takes place
beginning Thursday and continuing right into the weekend. Expect
warmer and wetter conditions during this period.

Near term until 11 pm this evening
As of 1018 am edt Wednesday... Current forecast in very good
shape, and no need to make any meaningful changes other than a
few tweaks to adjust for current conditions. No changes to the
forecast or rationale.

Previous discussion... Going forecast in good shape and no real
changes needed at this time. Still some lingering moisture
around early this morning with clouds... Some fog... And a couple
of stray showers. These conditions will linger until just after
sunrise and then we should see a window of improving conditions
with partly cloudy conditions for a better part of the day.

Highs will generally be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. In terms of
the convective potential today... Shortwave trough that enhanced
the storms over the area yesterday has moved east of the region
and northwest flow aloft has developed over the area. Not
seeing much in the way of any dynamic forcing... But there
appears to be a weak shortwave southeast of james bay that will
move southeast today and could provide some synoptic scale lift
to the northern tier of our area... Especially north central and
northeast vermont. Coldest air aloft has also moved east of the
area... But steep mid level lapse rates are expected to develop
once again over the area and this may result in sufficient
instability for convection to develop. While dynamic and
thermodynamic support is not great... It still may be just enough
to enhance the potential for showers this afternoon. Have
continued the idea of a slight chance of showers over much of
the area with a chance of showers for north central and
northeast vermont.

The showers should end around sunset and most of the night will
remain dry. During the early morning hours... The flow aloft
backs to the west and allows a warm front moisture to move
toward the region toward daybreak on Thursday. Thus have
included a chance of rain for parts of northern new york around
sunrise. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to
upper 50s.

Short term 11 pm this evening through Friday night
As of 445 am edt Wednesday... Forecast for the middle to end of
the week remains largely unchanged with models in very good
agreement with the general synoptic pattern minus some minor
timing differences. Low pressure moving through the great lakes
Thursday will push a west east oriented warm front over the
region with showers developing across northern new york during
the morning, and becoming widespread across the entire forecast
area through the afternoon hours and into the first half of
Thursday night. Instability is rather meager through the low mid
levels for much of Thursday limiting thunderstorm potential,
but as the front begins to lift northward towards the
international border Thursday evening night, some surface
instability builds across northern new york so will keep in a
mention of thunder there. By Friday morning the front will be
lingering around the border lifting northward through the day
with shower activity waning late Thursday night into early
Friday, but as the region becomes firmly entrenched in the warm
sector expect some diurnally and surface instability driven
convection to develop Friday afternoon evening with the threat
for heavy rain increasing as pwats rise to around 1.5".

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 445 am edt Wednesday... Unsettled conditions continue to
be on the horizon for the weekend as a slow moving cold front to
our west serving as the focus for additional showers and
thunderstorm development Saturday mid-day through Sunday.

Saturday may begin on the dry side as the north country remains
in the warm sector and some weak ridging aloft shifts over the
region. As this ridging moves eastward by mid-day, increasing
southwesterly flow between the approaching cold front and high
pressure anchored northeast of bermuda will usher in additional
moisture with pwats surging to 1.5-2" and dewpoints climbing
into the upper 60s and low 70s. Several waves of low pressure
riding along the frontal boundary to our west combined with
ample surface instability will produce periods of moderate to
locally heavy rain Saturday afternoon and night, with the front
shifting west to east across the area Sunday. Once again, heavy
rain will be a concern with model soundings showing
unidirectional flow ahead of the front in the low mid levels
with training of storms a distinct possibility. Confidence
continues to increase on the potential for flash flooding given
recent rains and above normal precip over the past month
combined with additional rainfall amounts in the 1-2" range on
top of the 1-1.5" we're likely to see Thursday and Friday. While
still several days away, this developing situation bears
watching over the next 48 hours.

Behind the front, quieter conditions are forecast for Monday and the
july 4th holiday as high pressure returns to the region. Seasonal
temperatures in the 70s 80s are likely, as well as more comfortable

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 12z Thursday... Overall looking atVFR conditions
through the period. Early this morning... Mainly through
14z... There will be some lingering showers in north central and
northeast vermont with some brief MVFR ceilings. Additional
showers are expected this afternoon but areal coverage should be
limited and thus have only mentioned vicinity showers between
18z and 00z. Light winds this morning will become west and
northwest this afternoon at speeds of 10 knots or less before
tapering off after 00z again.


Thursday:VFR MVFR. Definite ra.

Thursday night:VFR. Occasional ra... Slight chance tsra.

Friday:VFR. Likely shra... Chance tsra.

Friday night:VFR MVFR. Likely shra... Chance tsra.

Saturday:VFR MVFR. Occasional shra tsra.

Saturday night:VFR MVFR. Likely shra... Chance tsra.

Sunday:VFR. Chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Evenson
near term... Evenson manning
short term... Lahiff
long term... Lahiff
aviation... Evenson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Johnsbury - Fairbanks, VT15 mi34 minno data mi67°F51°F57%1015 hPa
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT18 mi37 minW 6 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F48°F56%1018 hPa
Caledonia County Airport, VT20 mi33 minWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F51°F61%1016.6 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT21 mi34 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F48°F54%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from 1V4 (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.