Wednesday, January24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Marshfield, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:52PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 2:28 AM EST (07:28 UTC) Moonrise 12:10PMMoonset 12:34AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshfield, VT
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location: 44.36, -72.29     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 240555
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1255 am est Wed jan 24 2018

A trough of low pressure is moving across the area early this
morning and is bringing rain and snow showers to the area. This
system will quickly exit the area and drier and colder air will
move into the region on gusty northwest winds. Below normal
temperatures and dry weather will be the rule for the remainder
of the work week as high pressure builds into the region. A
warming trend will take place this weekend and the chances for
rain will be increasing as well.

Near term through tonight
As of 1255 am est Wednesday... Upper trough is moving across the
area early this morning and has been enhancing precipitation...

especially over northern new york. The bulk of this
precipitation is now in the form of snow as colder air is
finally starting to work its way into the region. Temperatures
in vermont still warm enough that any precipitation will be in
the form of rain showers... But that will be changing as well
throughout the early morning hours as temperatures start to fall
below freezing. By the time that does however... Dynamic support
will be shifting out of the area and precipitation chances will
be decreasing. High temperatures will likely be right around
7am as cold air advection develops throughout the day and
temperatures continue to gradually fall on gusty west to
northwest winds.

Dry weather is expected tonight with clouds breaking up and
winds tapering off as high pressure builds into the region. This
should allow temperatures to fall into the single digits above
and below zero.

Short term Thursday through Friday
As of 336 pm est Tuesday... Thursday Thursday night will be the
coldest period of the week as flow turns increasingly northwesterly
behind the departing early mid week system. This will usher in
a colder air mass from central canada featuring 850 mb
temperatures nearing -20c. At the surface, high pressure will
build in from the west, resulting in a cold but mainly sunny day
Thursday with rapid overnight cooling Thursday night. Look for
daytime highs in the teens Thursday dipping down to near zero
Thursday night, with readings below zero expected in the
northern adirondacks in ny and east of the green mountains in
vt. Winds will be lighter Thursday than Wednesday, however even
the 5-10 mph winds forecasted will make for cold wind chills
Thursday morning through Thursday evening. While the building
high pressure will create a subsidence inversion between 800
and 900 mb, the surface boundary layer will continue to be
fairly well mixed. Some gusts of 15 to 20 mph, particularly
Thursday afternoon, can't be ruled out. The winds will subside
by Thursday evening, further supporting the rapid radiational
heat loss overnight.

Starting Friday morning, the center of the surface high will
shift further east and offshore, allowing for widespread
southerly return flow over the eastern us. This will set off a
warming trend throughout the day Friday that will allow daytime
high temperatures to top out in the 20s throughout northern ny
and vt. Friday will feature a few more clouds than Thursday,
however will still be dry and overall a good day to get some
fresh air and sunshine before the next system steals our
remaining Sun over the weekend.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 500 pm est Tuesday... An increasingly amplified upper-level
pattern will develop towards the end of the week featuring a
building subtropical ridge off the east coast and a digging
trough upstream over the central us. Between these two features,
deep southwesterly flow will direct warm, moist maritime
tropical air from the gulf coast towards the northeastern us.

Models continue to have difficulty coming to a consensus with
the handling of the overall evolution of the longwave pattern,
with the deterministic GFS holding strong with remarkable run-
to-run consistency as the main outlier. Previous runs of the
ecmwf cmc have favored a higher amplitude trough digging over
the central us. This higher amplification solution (ecmwf cmc)
results in a slower progression of the trough, allowing for
increased moisture transport and warm air advection into our
area than the more progressive GFS solution. With fairly high
spread between the individual GFS ensemble members and the
latest 23.12z ECMWF trending towards the lesser amplified gfs,
thinking it's still to early to completely rule out any
solution. However, continued to trend the extended forecast
towards the ECMWF cmc higher amplified solution, with higher
temperatures and categorical pops Sunday. Much uncertainty
exists however in the amount of warming (affecting precipitation
type forecast), timing, and QPF associated with the system.

With the heavier use of the ECMWF cmc, the long term forecast
features building cloud cover and warmer temperatures Saturday,
followed by a cold front passage Sunday. The passage of the cold
front will bring quite a bit of rain Sunday that will transition
to snow Sunday night as temperatures drop. Overall, it wouldn't
be out of the question to get close to an inch of QPF out of
this system Sunday through Monday, renewing hydro concerns once
again. Behind the front, temperatures will begin another
downward trend for the early to mid part of the next work week.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Through 06z Thursday... Area of snow and snow showers across a
good portion of northern new york will result in some ifr
conditions early this morning with improving conditions
beginning to take place after 10z. Conditions will essentially
becomeVFR with respect to ceilings and visibilities during the
late morning and early afternoon hours. Across vermont it will
mainly beVFR but there may be some MVFR ceilings across the
area this morning. Gusty west to northwest winds will be the
rule over the area this morning and afternoon with gusts in the
20 to 30 knot range before tapering off after 00z.


Thursday:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra, slight chance fzra, slight chance sn.

Saturday night:VFR MVFR conditions possible. Chance shra, chance

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Likely ra.

As of 353 pm est Tuesday... Widespread rainfall will continue
through the evening however the bulk of the rainfall has already
fallen. Current data suggests that between 0.25-0.75 inches of
rain fell over northern new york with between 0.50 to 1.00 inch
falling over vermont. Given the substantial loss of snowpack
across lower elevations during last week's storm, and the fact
that the warm- up will be of lesser magnitude we are not
expecting significant ice movement or and only modest water
rises on area rivers at this time. This is in close agreement
with nerfc guidance and our latest river forecasts. Nevertheless
conditions will continue to be monitored closely over the next
36 hours.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Deal
near term... Evenson
short term... Rsd
long term... Rsd
aviation... Evenson
hydrology... WFO btv

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Johnsbury - Fairbanks, VT15 mi94 minno data mi34°F34°F100%998.3 hPa
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT18 mi37 minSW 98.00 miLight Snow36°F30°F79%1000.5 hPa
Caledonia County Airport, VT20 mi53 minSE 610.00 miLight Drizzle34°F32°F93%998 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT21 mi34 minN 04.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F32°F96%999.5 hPa

Wind History from 1V4 (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.