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FXUS61 KBTV 151738 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 138 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Surface front will remain draped across our area today and tonight, leading to additional showers across our region today and overnight. The front will finally push south of our area on Thursday, and drier weather will result. The end of the work week will be warm, with temperatures trending back towards normal over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 128 PM EDT Wednesday...Convective showers and thunderstorms have developed as expected over the northern Adirondacks and over the northern Green Mountains. SPC Mesoanalysis analyzing 500 J/Kg SBCAPE over northeastern Vermont, which lines up with the SPC General Thunder outline for today. Only threat from any storms today will be heavy rainfall, with climatologically high PW values observed and slow storm motions forecast. With soils already fairly moist, will be watching rainfall rates closely especially if any storms track over the same location multiple times. Otherwise, forecast on track with no major updates needed. Previous discussion follows...

Surface front will lift northward back into our area today, and become stationary across Northern New York and Vermont. With this surface boundary remaining anchored across the north country, additional showers are expected today and tonight.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today than yesterday with mostly cloudy skies and showery weather anticipated. Fog that has formed overnight will lift shortly after sunrise. Only a slight chance for thunder mentioned in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, but not anticipating any strong storms with a lack of surface based instability present today. Cold front will finally drop south of our region on Thursday, and chances for showers will diminish. Warming trend will also begin on Thursday with temperatures warming into the mid 70s Thursday afternoon, should be a nice day.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall trends in model guidance continue to support drier conditions for the end of the work week with lingering showers early Thursday night ending through the overnight, and weak upper level ridging building in for Friday. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, temperature trends for Friday continue upward with modeled mean 925mb temps around +16C supporting highs well into the 70s with some isolated 80s possible in the deeper valleys. The good news is that humidity won't be an issue with dewpoints only in the 50s, so it should be a nice end to the work week.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...The trend towards drier conditions continues into the weekend and next week with a perusal of ensemble guidance showing only about 30% of members supporting daily QPF of greater than 0.1" through the period. Where previously a weak cold front looked to swing in Friday night into Saturday, now is progged to weaken and lift north, and a southern stream system which looked to close off over the eastern seaboard on Monday is now modeled as an open wave and south of the forecast area. As such, the North Country and Vermont is generally in a pocket of little to no precipitation under mainly zonal flow to weak upper level ridging at times.
Have continued to maintain some low chance PoPs through Saturday, and thereafter trended the forecast drier and warmer with highs mid/upper 70s possible again by Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18Z Thursday...Expect scattered coverage of showers to continue through 00Z as a weak front stalls overhead. Some showers may be briefly heavy in nature, with reductions to MVFR or brief IFR visibilities possible due to the moderate to heavy rain. Some isolated thunderstorms will also be embedded, especially over northern counties, but coverage will be to sparse to include at any given TAF site. Otherwise, showers wane in coverage after 00Z but MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail overnight as fog, mist, and low stratus develops. Expecting lowest visibilities (IFR) between 07Z and 11Z at KMPV, KEFK, and KSLK. Other sites are forecast to remain predominantly MVFR overnight. Some scattered showers will redevelop Thursday after 12Z, but coverage will not be as widespread as today. Ceilings will gradually lift toward VFR through 18Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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