Friday, March22, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Marshfield, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:08PM Friday March 22, 2019 6:46 AM EDT (10:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:11PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshfield, VT
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location: 44.36, -72.29     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 220745
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
345 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

A late season winter storm will affect the area through
Saturday morning with valley rain and snow, and heavier mountain
snows. Mainly quiet and seasonable weather returns by Sunday
before a cold front ushers in much colder air for Monday into
Tuesday of next week. By later in the work week temperatures
moderate considerably.

Near term through tonight
All winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories remain
in effect for through Saturday morning...

as of 345 am edt Friday... Mainly a persistence forecast in
regard to the overall weather theme over the next 42 hours as
deepening coastal low pressure lifts northeast through the
region. Still a complex evolution of this system as competing
upper closed lows consolidate over time while current surface
center near kacy transfers energy further east near the
benchmark which will take over as the primary. A such most of
the forecast effort overnight was to tease out small scale
details in p-type pop wind fields. Our idea of increasing
coverage of valley rains or mixed rains snows and higher
elevation snows today still looks good with highest
probabilities of accumulations generally above 1000 feet. The
devil lies in the details of course and given p-type will be
heavily governed by near surface temperatures any dynamical wet
bulb cooling processes could cool values just enough to cause
some variability at times in the valleys. Similar to last night
i leaned on the colder side of guidance and have a hard time
buying met mav guidance showing temperatures rising into the
lower 40s for example at kbtv on developing northerly flow this
afternoon. Used a multi-model blend including some raw model
output and 20% of our prior official data to yield highs ranging
through the 30s today depending on locale.

By later this afternoon and especially into this evening the now
consolidated and fairly deep surface low center will be pushing into
the gulf of maine or near the maine mid-coast. This will allow back
side deformational processes to blossom while winds trend
north northwesterly and increase steadily under a tightening
pressure gradient. Surface temperatures will begin to slowly cool
allowing a transition to all snow over time. As the night progresses
the snowfall will take on an orographic character as the surface low
begins to pull slowly away and become heavier at times. Our
messaging continues to highlight this period (600 pm to 800 am) as
the most impactful when the combination of moderate to locally heavy
snow and gusty winds lead to difficult travel and isolated power
outages. Our storm total snowfall was modified slightly to show a
sharper orographic character but the overall idea remains the same
with advisory areas seeing 2-7" and warning areas receiving a
general 6-12". The northwestern slopes of the adirondacks and spine
of the greens should see the heaviest totals from 10-18". Low
temperatures again a blend of guidance similar to that used for
today's highs - upper teens to mid 20s.

Short term Saturday through Sunday
As of 345 am edt Friday... On Saturday occluded surface low
pulls away fairly quickly given the lack of downstream blocking
and progressive nature of the upper flow pushing in from the
west northwest. Steadier light snows early taper off by mid-day
if not sooner with skies trending partly to mostly sunny from
mid afternoon onward. Highs will be on the chilly side from the
upper 20s to mid 30s under an abating but still gusty northwest

Quiet weather then returns for Saturday night into Sunday as surface
high pressure builds to our south and synoptic flow trends
southwesterly over time. Low temperatures to bottom out in the upper
teens to mid 20s (near normal) with highs on Sunday returning,
albeit briefly, to milder levels in the 40s. By later in the day on
Sunday a strong polar front will approach the region from the north
along with increasing clouds and chances for rain snow shower

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 345 am edt Friday... A cold front moves southward from
canada into the region Sunday night rather quickly and is south
of the CWA late Monday morning. Precipitation will be light and
scattered and mainly across northern counties with a mix of rain
and snow showers early on depending on elevation before
trending to all snow early Monday morning. QPF will not be
significant with up to a tenth of an inch of precip with an inch
or so of snow in the north to a trace in the south. Mountains
could be a bit more with a few inches of snow possible. High
temps will be in the 30s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cold and dry as a canadian airmass
moves south under high pressure and northwest flow aloft. Skies will
be mainly sunny but highs will in the mid 20s to lower 30s Tue and a
bit milder on Wed with highs mostly in the 30s. The coldest morning
looks to be Wed with lows from 5 to 15.

An upper level ridge moves across the region late Wed and into thu,
which will bring a reprieve from the cold as temperatures return to
seasonal levels by Thursday with highs in the 40s near to near

Aviation 08z Friday through Tuesday
Through 00z Saturday... Precipitation will overspread the taf
sites during the overnight hours from south to north. Near-
surface temperatures are initially in the mid-upr 30s, likely
limiting snow to slk mpv, with a rain snow mix at the remaining
taf sites. Conditions will generally trend MVFR after 09z with
hir trrn obscd. Winds through early-morning Friday generally
s-se, but shifting nwly Friday morning, including around 13z at
btv. As this occurs, enough cooling occurs to allow most of the
precipitation to transition to wet snow areawide. Will also see
a trend toward more widespread ifr CIGS vsby through the
daylight period Friday. N-nw winds will increase to around
10-12kts areawide Friday afternoon with a few gusts 20-25kts,
with periods of moderate to heavy snow possible. Anticipate
increasing impacts to aviation ground ops toward the end of the
taf period (late aftn-eve Friday).


Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance sn.

Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shsn,
chance shra.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Monday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for vtz003-004-

Winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Saturday for vtz001-002-005-009-011.

Winter weather advisory until noon edt Saturday for vtz007-008-

Ny... Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for nyz029>031-

Winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Saturday for nyz026-027-087.

Winter weather advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to noon edt
Saturday for nyz028-035.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Jmg
short term... Jmg
long term... Verasamy
aviation... Verasamy banacos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Johnsbury - Fairbanks, VT15 mi53 minno data mi33°F33°F100%1002.6 hPa
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT18 mi56 minNNE 41.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F32°F100%1004.2 hPa
Caledonia County Airport, VT20 mi71 minN 52.50 miLight Snow32°F32°F100%1003 hPa
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT21 mi53 minNNW 31.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F32°F96%1003.3 hPa

Wind History from 1V4 (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.