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FXUS61 KBTV 170530 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 130 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
After a showery pattern over the last week, a pattern change looks in store for us this weekend into the middle of next week. High pressure is expected to develop across the North Country this weekend with temperatures warming each day through next Tuesday. Our first taste of summer will be upon us with highs climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...Dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of the overnight with river valley fog forming, especially across Vermont. Low temps will be widely variable from the upper 40s across the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont, to mid/upper 50s in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys.

We will finally see the frontal boundary that's been over our area lift north today as a a developing upper level ridge finally displaces the cut off low off the Mid- Atlantic coastline. This should shift the shower activity north of the International Border on Friday but another round of showers is expected to move in from the west Friday night with the main focus of the shower activity across the St. Lawrence Valley.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...A mid-level shortwave trough will bring the potential for precipitation Saturday, and there remains a moderate level of uncertainty amongst the deterministic models.
Shower chances look to be 20-40% throughout the day as Saturday catches the tail end of the forcing from the shortwave. Instability is relatively unimpressive, but the best chance for some rumbles of thunder will be in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York Saturday afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s, roughly 5 degrees above climatological normals.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure and mid/high level ridging will take up residence for the second half of the weekend and the first half of next week, providing fairly dry weather and increasing temperatures. Subsidence from high pressure could assist in producing isolated patchy fog for a couple of the nights. If all goes according to forecast, Monday may be the first 80+ F day at the BTV airport as temperatures rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s across the forecast area both Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to agree strongly on temperatures 75+ F outside of the higher elevations for those days, particularly Monday.

The next chance for precipitation will be midweek onward, when a frontal passage could provide some showers and thunderstorms, particularly Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will also allow high temperatures to dip back down towards seasonable in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06Z Saturday...The main aviation concern for the period will be overnight MVFR/IFR fog which will be up and down at KSLK and more prevalent at KMPV and KEFK where visibility could go as low as LIFR. After 11-12Z, fog lifts and VFR is expected thereafter for the remainder of the period under SCT/BKN mid/high clouds. Winds will be nearly calm overnight with the exception of the typical southeast drainage wind at KRUT, then winds trend SSE at all sites during the daylight hours at 5-10kts.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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