Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alexandria Bay, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:56PM Sunday September 24, 2017 4:46 AM EDT (08:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:14AMMoonset 8:37PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 117 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Overnight..Light and variable winds. Clear.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Sunny.
Sunday night..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog overnight.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Monday night..Light and variable winds. Patchy fog overnight.
Tuesday..South winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog during the day.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Thursday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely during the day...then a chance of showers Thursday night. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alexandria Bay, NY
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location: 44.36, -75.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 240840
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
440 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to bring dry and very warm weather
through the first half of the week. An approaching cold front may
finally bring a chance of showers late Wednesday and Wednesday
night, with much cooler temperatures arriving late this week in the
wake of the cold front.

Near term through tonight
Ir satellite imagery showing typical river valley fog across the
western southern tier early this morning. This will continue to be
in place through mid morning, with some patchy light fog possible in
other rural areas through daybreak.

High pressure surface and aloft remain parked directly overhead
today. This will continue to provide full sunshine with strong
subsidence and dry air aloft not allowing any diurnal cumulus to
develop. Expect highs in the upper 80s across lower elevations
today, with local lake breezes keeping the lakeshores a little
cooler. Highs will be very close to daily records, which are 88 in
buffalo, 90 in rochester, and 88 in watertown.

High pressure remains overhead tonight with clear skies. Higher
dewpoints will keep temperatures a little milder than recent nights,
with mid to upper 60s on the lake plains and upper 50s to lower 60s
across the cooler southern tier valleys and east of lake ontario.

Expect typical river valley fog in the western southern tier, with
patchy lighter fog elsewhere in rural areas.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
The region will remain underneath ridging at the surface and aloft
throughout the period. This will maintain dry weather with much
above normal temperatures.

Although both Monday and Tuesday will be hot, Monday looks to be
slightly warmer. Consensus 850mb temperatures are forecast to be
around +19c Monday and +18c Tuesday. Highs will generally run in the
mid to upper 80s, with a few spots making a run at 90 on Monday. The
warmest readings are expected across inland areas away from local
lake breeze circulations. It also remain very humid, with dewpoints
in the mid to upper 60s. This will make it feel uncomfortably hot,
despite the calender date with heat index values pushing into the
90s if not the air temperatures.

It does look as if some daily high temperature records may be
challenged. The record high is 87 for buffalo on Monday and Tuesday
with forecast highs near or slightly higher than the record. At
rochester the record for Monday is 92, and for Tuesday 89. Rochester
will be close, but may fall a bit short due to the northeast lake
breeze which will develop each afternoon.

Nighttime low temperatures will be on the warm side due to the high
dewpoints. Lows will average in the lower to mid 60s. The humid
airmass with light winds and mainly clear skies will also result in
areas of fog each night, especially in the valleys.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Ridging will weaken Wednesday as a trough moves over the upper great
lakes by late in the day. Even so, temperatures will remain well
above normal Wednesday with highs in the 80s. This is still about 15
degrees above normal for this time of year.

A weak cold front will cross the region but moisture and upper level
support is limited, therefore rainfall amounts look minimal with
only scattered showers. 00z guidance is slightly slower and weaker
with the boundary, suggesting the best chance for any showers will
be Wednesday night, and this only a small one.

Much cooler air is expected to spill across the region in the wake
of the cold front passage, this airmass change will get us back down
to near more seasonal values by Thursday, with highs in the mid to
upper 60s Thursday.

A shortwave is likely to drop across the lower great lakes Friday,
with a reinforcing shot of cool air. Highs will be near to slightly
below normal, topping out in the 60s on Friday and Saturday. The air
aloft will be cool enough for some lake enhancement, with a
small chance of showers both Friday and Saturday.

Given this pattern, there still remains a chance that some locations
will not receive any measurable rainfall for the remainder of
september. In buffalo it has been 15 days since there has been
measurable precipitation, and although this may be extended we still
have a long ways to go to reach the record. The longest dry stretch
without measurable precipitation in buffalo is 30 days set back in
the fall of 1924.

Aviation 09z Sunday through Thursday
Areas of fog will continue across the western southern tier with
local ifr. Some of this will likely impact kjhw for a few hours just
before sunrise. Some patchy light fog is also possible elsewhere
mainly in rural areas, particularly east of lake ontario with spotty
MVFR to ifr.

The fog will burn off by 14z, leavingVFR to prevail as high
pressure surface and aloft remains parked over the area. This will
provide another day of clear skies. Expect more river valley fog
late tonight and Monday morning across the western southern tier,
with patchy fog elsewhere in rural areas with local ifr.

Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Local ifr conditions each late night
and early morning with fog.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
late.

Thursday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure will remain in place across the lower great lakes
right through the first half of the week. This will provide a long
stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with ideal boating
conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock
short term... Apffel smith
long term... Apffel tma
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 4 mi46 min 70°F1018.3 hPa (+0.0)
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 31 mi46 min 67°F 1018 hPa (+0.0)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 71 mi46 min S 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 1019.4 hPa (+0.5)63°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY22 mi1.8 hrsS 410.00 miA Few Clouds63°F60°F91%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3S3CalmS4SW4W6W5W8W6W6SW6W8SW7SW5SW4CalmS3SE4SE3SE4S3S4S5
1 day agoCalmE3E5E5E4NE5NE6NE6N6NE6NE7NE9N6NE7N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE7SE5SE3
2 days agoNE3CalmCalmCalmE4NE3N5NE7NE9NE9NE8N8N9N6NE7NE5N5NE4E4SE3SE5SE4E4SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.