Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alexandria Bay, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 4:52PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:27 AM EST (13:27 UTC) Moonrise 7:08AMMoonset 4:42PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1223 Pm Est Sun Dec 31 2017
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Clear.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Wednesday night.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Thursday night. The saint lawrence seaway has closed to navigation for the season, therefore the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alexandria Bay, NY
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location: 44.36, -75.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 160844
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
344 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will cross our region today while bringing a
period of light snow to most areas. Following the passage of this
system... A continued flow of cold air will produce some limited lake
snows downwind of the lakes through midweek... Before a pronounced
day to day warming trend arrives late in the week and then continues
through next weekend.

Near term through tonight
A weak clipper system is located over the eastern great lakes this
morning. Warm air advection ahead of the clipper has led to an area
of widespread light snow across western ny. Around an inch of snow
has been observed at the buffalo and rochester airports
overnight.

Snow assoicated with the clipper system will taper off from west to
east through the day. A cold front located across the ohio valley
will enter western ny by afternoon. Colder SW flow will move over a
partially frozen lake erie and a lake response will begin this
evening. Inversion heights increase to 5-8k feet and lake effect
snow showers are expected from buffalo metro south to the southern
tier. Due to the partially frozen lake erie, snow accumulations will
be lackluster. An inch or two is expected into Wednesday morning. As
the cold front makes its way across lake ontario, flow will be sw-w
over the lake. Due to a wide open lake and similar inversion
heights, snow showers will likely be more intense than off lake erie
into Wednesday morning. A band will likely form across the tug hill
plateau region resulting in 1-3 inches into Wednesday morning.

As the cold front moves eastward late this afternoon and into the
evening, snow will develop to the south and east as a coastal low
develops late tonight. The forecast area will be on the western
fringe of the baroclinic leaf and snow will likely skirt the
southern tier this evening, and move northward across the western
finger lakes and southern tug hill plateau region late tonight. Up
to an inch of accumulation is expected before the snow moves
eastward towards new england.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and tonight with high
temperatures in the 20s and low temperatures in the single digits to
teens.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
Synoptic snows will be coming to an end as forcing and deeper
moisture pivot northeast Wednesday morning. Lake effect parameters
will briefly gain an uptick behind the system Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Limited open water on lake erie will greatly limit
lake effect potential. Accumulations will be limited to no more than
inch or so Wednesday. A few flurries or light snow showers may
linger into Wednesday night near buffalo, with little or no
accumulation expected. A better lake effect focus during this time
will be off lake ontario with much more open water. Shear profiles
suggesting bands will be moving enough to limit amounts in any one
location to no more than 3 inches.

What remains of the lake effect will diminish to scattered snow
showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Outside of lake effect areas,
Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly dry for the rest of the region
with variable amounts of clouds. Expect highs Wednesday to be in the
lower to mid 20s in most areas, with upper teens across the higher
terrain. By Thursday highs will recover into the mid to upper 20s.

Thursday night and Friday, another, well-defined, mid-level wave is
set pass just to the north of the region. Moisture will be limited
with this system, but will still bring an increase in clouds and
also provide a little better environment for lake effect snow again
east of lake ontario. This may produce some additional minor
accumulations centered on the tug hill region. This system will move
out quickly on Friday with any snow ending east of lake ontario.

Temperatures will continue an upward trend, with highs in the lower
mid 30s by Friday afternoon.

Long term Friday night through Monday
Another mid-winter thaw will be in the works as we move into the
weekend. A surface low is currently forecast to pass by to our north
as it tracks from northern ontario Friday night to labrador by
Sunday. Relatively warm and moist gomex-sourced air will be drawn
across our region and into this low, with a warm front crossing the
forecast area Friday into Friday night. While a few light snow
showers may be possible as the front crosses the area, the bulk of
the vertical forcing will remain well to our north across canada,
and as a result pops should remain low into Saturday. Temperatures
should gradually rise through the 20s Friday night, with readings
cracking 40 degrees across many locales by Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to rise and moisture will gradually
increase across the area as we move into the second half of the
weekend as southerly flow and gomex moisture return strengthens in
response to lee-side cyclone development across the central plains.

Temperatures will climb well into the 40s, and some areas may flirt
with 50 Sunday afternoon, as warm air surges north across the region
in advance of the deepening cyclone moving into the midwest. The
warming temperatures will be accompanied by increasing clouds
however, as this moisture deepens across the region. Models
currently indicate that we should see a more substantial chance
for rain moving into far western new york by late Sunday night,
as the low-level jet associated with the low approaches the
area. Rainy and blustery conditions can be expected on Monday,
as the aforementioned low cuts across the central great lakes.

Aviation 09z Tuesday through Saturday
A weak clipper system centered over southern lower michigan will
slide eastward across our area through the TAF period... While
continuing to slowly but steadily weaken. This system will continue
to spread occasional light snow across the region from west to east
this morning.

Vfr conditions are expected outside of the snow today and tonight
with mainly MVFR CIGS expected.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday... Localized MVFR to ifr possible
in scattered to occasionally more numerous lake effect snow showers
east of the lakes... With mainlyVFR conditions elsewhere.

Saturday... MainlyVFR with a chance of light rain.

Marine
A weakening area of low pressure will cross our region today. This
will result in southerly winds less than 10 knots. A cold front will
move across lake erie by this afternoon and lake ontario by
Wednesday morning. Winds will increase out of the SW behind the cold
front. Winds will remain below small craft thresholds.

On Wednesday high pressure will ridge across the ohio valley...

while low pressure meanders its way across james bay. Lingering
cold air and the tightening pressure gradient in between these
two systems will bring increasing winds and waves to those portions
of lakes erie and ontario that are still ice free... And as such will
likely necessitate another round of small craft advisories.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hsk
near term... Hsk
short term... Tma
long term... Wood
aviation... Hsk
marine... Hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 4 mi40 min 33°F1029.5 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 31 mi40 min 1030.1 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 71 mi40 min SSE 8.9 G 12 20°F 1028.6 hPa17°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY22 mi32 minSE 810.00 miOvercast19°F14°F82%1028.8 hPa

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E5SE7SE8SE7N4NE6NE6E7E6E3NE4SE6SE9SE10SE13SE7SE9SE9SE9S4SE6SE8SE8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3E3E4SE4SE4SE5SE4SE4SE4SE4SE4SE3E3E4SE4
2 days agoN9N6N6NW6N5NW9N9NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.