Saturday, May26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alexandria Bay, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:37PM Saturday May 26, 2018 12:22 AM EDT (04:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:33PMMoonset 3:12AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 731 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers early, then showers from late evening on.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers early, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms from late morning on.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers during the day.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mainly clear.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alexandria Bay, NY
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location: 44.36, -75.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 260234
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1034 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
Increasing southwesterly flow and sunshine will lead to warm
temperatures through the holiday weekend. There will be a chance of
a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each day from
Saturday through early next week, but the vast majority of the time
will be rain free.

Near term through Saturday
Ir satellite imagery displays clouds streaming across the north
country and the eastern end of lake ontario along a nearly
stationary frontal boundary this late evening. Meanwhile to the
south clear skies rule over the remainder of the forecast area.

Overnight, southwesterly large scale flow will continue as dewpoints
start to creep up. This will keep a floor underneath low
temperatures overnight, yet dewpoints shouldn't jump enough to make
it an uncomfortable sleeping night just yet.

The post-warm frontal ridging from Friday into Friday night will
start to break down on Saturday as an unimpressive short wave trough
moves from the central great lakes toward our area by Saturday
afternoon. Some increase in cloud cover will be evident with this
weak system on Saturday, however poor large scale ascent and only a
very weak right entrance region of an upper jetlet will result in
synoptic scale ascent that will have difficulty overcoming mesoscale
effects. Thus, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be
relegated to the lake breeze boundaries and push eastward from
there. Thus, while the southern tier, northern finger lakes, and
areas east of lake ontario will have a chance of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon Saturday, it seems stabilization
from the great lakes should keep the bulk of the immediate
buffalo niagara falls rochester areas mainly dry as the system
passes.

Continued warm advection on Saturday in southwesterly large scale
flow combined with a warmer start to the day should manage to allow
for similar high temperatures on Saturday when compared to today.

This will be the case even with less insolation due to a bit more
cloud cover.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
Warm temperatures will continue through the holiday weekend with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through memorial day.

Any showers and thunderstorms will taper off into Saturday
evening with the loss of daytime evening. A light southerly flow
will continue overnight with mild temperatures in the low 60s.

A shortwave trough will approach nys Sunday while a frontal
boundary sags southwestward from north country into western ny.

As dewpoints rise into the mid to upper 60s Sunday, showers and
thunderstorms will likely form in vicinity of the frontal
boundary as well as any lake breezes that form. The best chance
for showers and thunderstorms will be away from the lakes in the
afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will rise into the
low to mid 80s, and slightly cooler near the lake shores.

Any showers and thunderstorms will move into central ny by
Sunday evening however activity that forms across the ontario
peninsula Sunday will venture eastward across lake erie and lake
ontario. This activity will move eastward while diminishing
across the forecast area Sunday night. Temperatures will stay
mild overnight with temperatures reaching the mid 60s.

Memorial day will be warm with the potential for temperatures to
reach the mid-upper 80s to possibly 90 in interior valleys.

Dewpoints will continue to hover in the mid to upper 60s making
for a slightly uncomfortable day. An upper level trough axis
will move across the region during the day and winds will become
northerly by Monday evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will be mainly confined to interior areas of the forecast area
and over the higher terrain in closer proximity to a front that
should be to the south. Locations along the lake plains will be
both shadowed by the lake breezes and away from the better
moisture and forcing behind the front. Activity will taper off
into Monday evening with mostly dry conditions expected overnight.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Canadian high pressure will build across the northeast conus
Tuesday. This will bring a return to dry weather, as well as
give us a brief break from the heat and humidity of the holiday
weekend, with highs in the mid 70s to around 80.

The high will start to drift east Wednesday bringing back some
warmer and more humid air. The day should remain dry, but can't
completely rule out some pops up afternoon showers or storms given
expected instability, and the potential for lake breeze development.

Mid-upper level ridge will be ushered off to the east by Thursday as
a potent shortwave approaches from the northern plains and the
remnants of the gulf tropical system push into the ohio valley. This
will bring a better chance for scattered showers and storms for
Thursday and Friday.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
For the 00z tafsVFR flight conditions are found, and these
conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. A few
showers will pass by the north country through the period, though
remaining largely to the north of watertown. A few isolated showers
and thunderstorms may develop on lake breeze boundaries across
interior wny tomorrow afternoon, though likely forming away from taf
sites.

Outlook...

Saturday night... MainlyVFR.

Sunday and Monday... MainlyVFR with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
High pressure will slowly settle to the southeast through the
weekend. A weak system will slowly advance eastward through the
great lakes, however as it remains to the west of the area for the
most part, southwesterly winds will be about all it creates over the
water. A weak pressure gradient will remain in place through early
next week, with winds generally under 15 knots and waves 2 feet or
less.

There may be a few widely scattered thunderstorms at times with
locally higher winds and waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fries
near term... Fries thomas
short term... Church hsk
long term... Tma
aviation... Thomas
marine... Fries


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 4 mi52 min 53°F1006.7 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 31 mi52 min 62°F 1005.7 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 71 mi52 min WSW 12 G 23 77°F 1007.9 hPa49°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY22 mi26 minWSW 11 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F47°F45%1007.2 hPa

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW9
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1 day agoNW4N3CalmS4SW5S3SW3W4CalmCalmSW3NW4SW9W9W8W11SW7W10SW12SW9SW9SW10SW10SW10
2 days agoW4W4W3SW3SW3SW4S4W6W9W10W9W9
G15
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W10W10SW12SW9SW7W3SW5CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.