Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Alexandria Bay, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:31PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 6:31 PM EDT (22:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:25PMMoonset 6:43AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ022 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 624 Am Edt Tue May 21 2019
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Partly Sunny early, then becoming mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds. Sunny.
Wednesday night..East winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers Friday night.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alexandria Bay, NY
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location: 44.36, -75.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 212032
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
432 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure building eastward from the upper great lakes will provide
our region with fair weather and cooler than normal temperatures through
tonight. The high will then slide off to our east on Wednesday... Allowing
for increasing clouds along with temperatures climbing back to more normal
levels for late may. More unsettled weather will then return Wednesday
night through Thursday night as low pressure tracks eastward across
ontario and quebec.

Near term through Wednesday
High pressure centered over the upper great lakes will continue to
steadily build eastward across our region through the rest of this
afternoon and this evening... With its axis then shifting eastward
into central new york overnight. In tandem with diurnal influences...

increasing subsidence and drying attendant to the building ridge will
continue to help scour out any lingering diurnal cumulus across the
north country through early this evening. Elsewhere there should
just be some thinning cirrus passing across portions of far western
new york through this evening... With mainly sunny clear skies
otherwise prevailing. Later on tonight developing warm air advection
on the backside of the departing ridge should allow for a bit more
in the way of mid and high clouds to make their way into far western
new york... While mainly clear skies should persist east of the
genesee valley. With respect to temperatures... The combination of
our cool airmass... Lightening winds... And limited cloud cover will
allow for below normal lows tonight... With readings ranging from
the upper 30s across the north country and interior portions of the
southern tier to the lower to mid 40s elsewhere.

On Wednesday the high will slide further east and into new england...

allowing weakening low pressure over the northern plains states to
push its attendant warm front over the ohio valley toward our region.

Continued warm air advection out ahead of this feature will lead
to a general west-to-east increase in mid and high cloud cover through
the day... With enough isentropic ascent developing by mid to late
afternoon to perhaps support a few sprinkles or light showers across
far southwestern new york. Aside from these the day will be mainly
dry... With the overall warm air advection regime allowing highs
to climb back to near normal levels in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short term Wednesday night through Saturday night
The axis of a high amplitude ridge will move east of the region
Wednesday night... While a broad surface low will track across the
upper great lakes. This will establish a southerly flow over our
forecast area with a strengthening 35-40kt low level jet helping to
push a warm front through the region. The resulting isentropic lift
will support scattered shower activity... While elevated CAPE values
of 100-200 j kg will allow for a thunderstorm or two. Will add the
latter to the forecast with this package. Otherwise... It will be a
relatively mild night... Especially when compared to recent nights.

In fact... We should experience a non-diurnal temp trend with mins in
the 50s occurring near before midnight.

Thursday will become unsettled across the region... As a strong
shortwave and attendant sfc low tracking east from the upper great
lakes will push a pair of frontal boundaries through our forecast
area. The first will be a pre frontal trough that will make its way
through during the midday hours. While SBCAPE values are only
forecast to range from 500-1000 j kg... A 45 to 50kt low level jet
will offer up plenty of shear to accompany the expected convection.

This will introduce the risk for strong to severe thunderstorm
activity... Especially ahead of a cold front that will bear down on
the region during the late afternoon. The high CAPE low shear
environment will include 0-6km bulk shear values that average close
to 40kts. This has prompted SPC to include all of western and north
central new york within a slight risk area for severe weather... With
the primary threat being damaging winds and large hail. While this
threat has been mentioned in the hwo product... Have now placed the
potential for gusty winds within the actual forecast grids.

Otherwise... Our region will be within a warm sector with h85 temps
hovering within a couple degrees of 13c. This will support a rather
warm day that will be accompanied by dew points in the 60s (wrn
counties)... Making it feel humid as well.

The aforementioned cold front will make its way across our forecast
area early Thursday evening. By this time though... The bulk of the
main convection ahead of the front will be east of the region... But
there will still be a few showers and storms around until midnight
or so. The rapidly ending convection will give way to partial
clearing and more comfortable conditions.

An amplifying mid level ridge will then build across the great lakes
region on Friday... While the accompanying surface high will cross
our forecast area. This will allow for a pleasant... Albeit it
notably cooler... Day across our region with partly sunny skies and
temperatures mainly in the 60s.

As the ridge passes our region Friday night... Strong warm advection
will set up over the lower great lakes. The deepest lift associated
with the resulting forcing should be to our north and west... But
there should still be the potential for some showers... Especially
for sites near lake ontario.

The start to the weekend should then prove to be unsettled... As
another pre-frontal trough is forecast to cross our region. Saturday
should be similar to Thursday... As warm and increasingly humid air
will support some showers and thunderstorms with a 45kt low level
jet and the pre frontal trough providing the synoptic forcing. Will
thus maintain likely pops.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Large scale pattern will feature a rex block over the western u.S.

With generally zonal flow across the eastern 2 3rds of the country
to start this period. While weak surface ridging will likely reside
across the lower lakes Sunday with dry conditions, shortwave energy
originating from the elongated mid-level low over the hudson bay
will begin to drop southeast towards the region. This feature will
send a cold front towards and across the lower lakes on Monday which
will likely lead to increasing chances for showers. With the passage
of the cold front transitory ridging will slide across the eastern
great lakes Monday night. Tuesday and beyond typical model
uncertainty creeps in regarding another northern stream system
dropping southeast and a low pressure system lifting out of the
midwest. Have kept slight chance pop's although most of the time
will likely be dry over the area on Tuesday.

Temperatures will average near to a little above normal with
highs in the 70s for much of the region.

Aviation 21z Tuesday through Sunday
High pressure will build across the region through the taf
period. This will result in widespreadVFR conditions... With
lingering lower-endVFR ceilings east of lake ontario gradually
mixing out through the rest of today.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...VFR MVFR with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms...

a few of which could produce gusty winds.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
High pressure building eastward from the upper great lakes to new york
state will bring steadily diminishing winds and waves through tonight.

On Wednesday the high will slide out across new england... With an
increasing return flow between this system and low pressure over the
northern plains leading to the development of some moderate easterlies
on lake ontario... Though the strongest winds and greatest wave action
should remain over the open waters of the lake.

The aforementioned low will then track from the upper great lakes to
quebec while pushing its warm front across the lower great lakes
Wednesday night and Thursday... With a period of moderately brisk west-
southwesterlies developing out ahead of its trailing cold front during
Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Rsh
long term... Ar
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 4 mi38 min 49°F1017.7 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 31 mi38 min 62°F 51°F1017.5 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 71 mi38 min W 11 G 18 49°F 1019.2 hPa40°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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N2
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Drum / Wheeler-Sack U. S. Army Airfield, NY22 mi96 minN 12 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F34°F35%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from GTB (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE8SE7S8S5W9W5S7S8SW5SW6SW7SW10SW10SW10W7W11
G19
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2 days agoN3CalmE3SE5E4SE5SE6SE4SE7SE9SE11SE8SE8N5E3CalmCalmW5W10W7N4E3N3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.