Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelburne, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday May 27, 2017 1:23 PM EDT (17:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:13AMMoonset 10:29PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelburne, VT
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location: 44.38, -73.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 271414
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1014 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
Memorial day weekend looks to start out great with dry weather
and fair conditions expected for today and Sunday along with a
warming trend. The back end of the weekend will see showers
returning to the area late Sunday night into memorial day. A
pattern change will see slightly cooler temperatures and a
chance for showers almost each day next week.

Near term through Sunday
As of 1014 am edt Saturday... Made some changes to the sky grids
based on satellite trends showing plenty of clear areas.

Steepening low level lapse rates will allow for some clouds to
fill back in... But overall looking a bit more optimistic on sky
conditions. Rest of forecast remains unchanged.

Previous discussion...

high pressure builds into the region for most of the memorial
day weekend. This will lead to a warming and drying trend for
today into Sunday. Lingering clouds will remain around through
mid-afternoon today before more discernible clearing happens
overnight into Sunday morning. The dry and warmer weather
continues on Sunday as the high pressure ridge crests over the
area bringing another day of fair conditions. High temperatures
for Saturday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s while overnight
lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s. With Sunday's decreased
cloud cover and weak southerly flow, high temperatures mid to
upper 70s with some valley locations possibly touching 80.

Short term Sunday night through Monday
As of 328 pm edt Friday... Will see another pattern change
beginning Sunday night as 700mb shortwave ridge translates ewd into
the gulf of maine and broad closed mid-tropospheric low shifts
slowly ewd across the great lakes region and ontario. Onset of
mid-level height falls and developing cyclonic flow aloft occurs
during Sunday night, though the 00z ECMWF is about 6 hrs slower
than 00z GFS with arrival of shortwave trough vorticity max
embedded in swly flow moving into the north country. Have gone
with more consistent GFS timing for now, which means likely pops
(70%) for showers into NRN ny during the pre-dawn hrs Monday,
with chance pops (30-50%) across vt. It appears that best
synoptic QG forcing will occur during Monday morning, with
widespread shower activity associated with strongest 850mb waa.

Overall QPF generally 0.25" - 0.50". Should see partial clearing
occurring later in the day Monday as 850mb warm front shifts
north and east of the region. Can't rule out a few additional
late day showers with weak surface based instability possible.

Have included slight chance of thunderstorms late in the
afternoon for the st. Lawrence valley area and s-central vt. 00z
gfs SBCAPE values reach 600 j kg at kmss at 21z mon. In terms
of temperatures, the increasing clouds will keep overnight lows
mild Sunday night, generally in the low-mid 50s (except upper
50s in the st. Lawrence valley). There is an increase in s-sw
gradient flow, reaching 10-20 mph after midnight in the
champlain and st. Lawrence valleys. This will also help with
low-level mixing, keeping temperatures from dropping
significantly. A lake wind advisory may ultimately be needed for
lake champlain later Sunday night into Monday morning
associated with this increase in southerly gradient winds. With
only partial clearing expected later Monday, high temperatures
will range from the low-mid 60s across central ERN vt, the upr
60s in the champlain valley, and mid 60s (adirondacks) to lower
70s (st. Lawrence valley) across northern ny.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 328 pm edt Friday... Large mid-upper level low pressure
system will be our controlling weather feature through much of
the long-term period. This vertically stacked system will
drift slowly ewd from the NRN great lakes ontario Monday night,
ewd into WRN quebec by Thursday. Northern ny and new england
will be embedded in associated cyclonic flow, with several
shortwave troughs crossing the region from wsw-ene Tuesday
through Friday. It appears the best chance for shower activity
will generally be during afternoon periods, with combination of
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and surface heating
resulting in shallow instability and shower development. Have
indicated likely pops Tuesday afternoon, followed by 30-50%
chances for Wed Thu Fri afternoon. Temperatures will generally
reach the low-mid 70s on Tuesday, followed by upr 60s to lower
70s Wednesday, and mid-upr 60s on Thursday as thermal trough
aloft gradually shifts ewd into our region. Min temperatures
will range from the upr 40s to mid 50s... Close to seasonal
averages for late may.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
Through 06z Sunday... .Most stations areVFR with the exceptions
being kslk and krut which are lifr and ifr respectively. Both
should improve toVFR by 14z at which point all stations should
stayVFR for the remainder of the period.

Wind will be northwesterly at 5-10 knots during the day before
going light and variable overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Memorial day: MVFR. Breezy. Likely shra... Tsra.

Monday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Tuesday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mv
near term... Evenson mv
short term... Banacos
long term... Banacos
aviation... Kgm mv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45166 28 mi53 min S 1.9 G 1.9 60°F 59°F47°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT8 mi29 minWSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds68°F46°F47%1011.9 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY23 mi30 minESE 610.00 miFair65°F46°F52%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10N12NW14NW14NW14
G17
NW12NW11N7NW6N6CalmNW5CalmN4N3CalmCalmE3N3N4--NW6W5W8
1 day agoSE12SE9E4E14E15
G24
E6SE9SE4CalmE3CalmE3E4N5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNW7N7N6NW9
2 days ago533SE8S7SE6E4E4E3E3CalmCalmSE3CalmSE9S6SE6E5SE9SE5SE4E9E11E11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.