Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Castine, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 4:07PM Thursday November 15, 2018 9:55 PM EST (02:55 UTC) Moonrise 1:50PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 746 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect from 1 am est Friday through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. A slight chance of snow this evening, then drizzle with snow likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming N 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain and drizzle in the morning, then rain with snow likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers in the evening.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain and snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ100 746 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A coastal low pressure system will move across cape cod later tonight and then northeast rapidly through the gulf of maine Friday. High pressure then moves across the waters over the weekend before another low pressure system potentially affects the waters early next week. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castine, ME
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location: 44.39, -68.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 160136 aaa
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
836 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A coastal storm will arrive tonight into Friday bringing
mainly snowfall to maine and new hampshire. An upper level
disturbance will cross the region Saturday. Canadian high
pressure builds into the region Sunday before a fast moving area
of low pressure develops over the region Sunday night. An
arctic front will cross the region late Monday, followed by
high pressure building into the region through midweek.

Near term through tonight
***significant winter storm expected tonight***
update... Snow has started across swrn nh this hour... And will
rapidly expand newd thru the late evening. The lower boundary
layer is beginning to saturate... With dewpoints now rising into
the teens across SRN nh. The upper teens at een and afn appears
to be the magic number for when snow begins to be reported by
asos AWOS sites.

Snow is being forced by strong frontogenesis at in the h8 to h7
layer. This is mainly due to strong llj... In excess of 75 kts at
h7... Impinging on the ridge axis. This WAA forcing for ascent
will be the bulk of our accumulating snowfall... Despite some
deformation snows as the upper low crosses the area fri.

This is a little bit of a fly in the ointment for the forecast
for a couple reasons. One is that the LLJ does veer off to the e
with time... Which will reduce lift and associated snowfall
rates. Basically the most intense WAA lift is occurring now over
srn new england. I still expect it to snow moderately to heavily
at times... But not expecting widespread 1 inch plus per hour
rates... With the exception of far SRN nh. Another issue is the
dry slot rapidly approaching from the sw. Based on satellite and
surface obs... It has already reached the nyc area. Given that
snow just started in SRN nh... That does not leave much of a
window to accumulation high snow totals. Once the dry slot moves
overhead... I expect precip to taper to a freezing drizzle or
very... Very light snow. With that in mind I have reduced
snowfall totals somewhat across most of the area. With a shorter
accumulation window and some mixing expected... I see much
greater than 6 inches a tough ask... And there is a potential for
totals to be even lower than what I have in there.

Previous discussion... A very deep arctic air mass in place with
a very dry column of air in place, this will play an important
role in the upcoming forecast. Initial shot of stg waa
overunning aloft tonight will bring with it over a half inch to
.75 inches of QPF in the form of snow due to the stg baroclinic
zone in place and strong evaporational cooling of the columns
with also a deep arctic air mass in place. Expecting a large
swath of 5-8 inches over most areas so winter storm warnings
will continue. A break in the action occurs late tonight and
toward morning once the initial shot of WAA ends with a brief
dry slot.

Lowered overnight temps due to the strong cold air damming
overnight. Late tonight some warm air aloft and at the sfc may
make it into extreme southeast nh lowering amounts over the
seacoast area thus only winter wx advisories for that area.

Euro still the preferred model of choice with higher QPF and
colder. GFS has considerably lower qpf, meanwhile NAM the warmer
model trying to simply bring warm air inland through the arctic
dome which is very unlikely.

Of interest will be where some heavier bands of snowfall occur
that may exceed the snowfall forecast amounts with initial shot
of the WAA pattern over southern and coastal which should last
4-6 hours tonight before becoming light late. Coastal front will
come into play after midnight aiding in additional lift in a
20-30 mile area west of its location.

Northern areas will be on northern fringe of system and may
have a tough time reaching warning criteria but higher ratios
(fluff factor) may play a role.

Short term Friday and Friday night
Will be using the euro track of the low and mid level low for
fri. This will bring another shot of wraparound snow in the
morning of maybe a few additional inches. The system races
northeast and by afternoon the pcpn should come to an end with
clearing in the mid afternoon. Northwest downsloping winds will
increase and become gusty in the wake of the departing storm in
the afternoon.

Heavily weighted temps off the euro model but with some assist
from the other blended models
fri night another shot of cold air on a westerly flow. Some
minor S wves may trickle through the west flow aloft causing
some scattered snow showers.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
A gradual warming trend is expected for the start of the upcoming
weekend, however temperatures will still average near or below
normal. A break between weather systems will occur for much of
the day Saturday prior to the passage of yet another arctic
frontal approach late in the day. This renewed shot of cold air
will trigger scattered snow showers. H8 temperatures between
-10c and -14c will allow for temperatures to drop into the teens to
20s by Sunday morning.

High pressure will enter the region within a very fast flow as a
broad scale upper level low approaches from the west. This upper
level feature will trigger the development of a wave of low
pressure Sunday night into early Monday morning. Models have
been trending towards higher pops and the potential for light
accumulations of snowfall before it the system exits to our east
Monday afternoon. In its wake, all models drive a strong arctic
front through the region Monday evening. Strong cold air
advection in the fast moving cyclonic flow aloft will allow for
snow showers to break out across the high terrain. Expect
scattered snow showers as well, which may reach all the way to
the coastline. Very cold conditions will follow for Tuesday and
Tuesday night with overnight lows once again near zero over
northern areas.

More quiet conditions expected for the rest of the midweek
period. A large ridge of high pressure will move off the coast
late in the week. This will set up the potential for very light
overunning precipitation.

Aviation 01z Friday through Tuesday
Short term...VFR conds the rest of the aftn will be lowering to
ifr lifr in developing snow across southern areas 00-03z
then rapidly spreading north over the rest of the area by 07z.

Conditions will slowly improve toVFR late Fri morning.VFR
conditions in the afternoon into Fri night except in the mountains
where MVFR conditions may persist. Gusty northwest winds will
develop Fri afternoon into the evening as the storms exits into
the maritimes.

Long term... Conditions lowering to ifr in snow Sunday night.

Scattered snow squalls with abruptly changing winds will likely
cross the region late Monday and Monday evening.

Marine
Short term... Gale warning begin late tonight and continue through
Friday.

Long term... Westerly winds may reach scas on Saturday. A brief
period of strong winds, possibly briefly meeting gale force over
the outer water may occur with the passage of scattered snow
squalls late Monday and Monday evening.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter storm warning until 1 pm est Friday for mez018-023.

Winter storm warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Friday for
mez007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028.

Nh... Winter storm warning until 1 pm est Friday for nhz005>013-015.

Winter storm warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Friday for
nhz001>004.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Friday for nhz014.

Marine... Gale warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Friday for anz150>154.

Near term... Legro


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 25 mi112 min E 5.8 G 9.7 32°F 48°F1029.7 hPa
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 32 mi38 min E 7 G 8 30°F 45°F1030 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 42 mi112 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 33°F 50°F1 ft1030.1 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 42 mi56 min E 7 G 8 33°F 1028.8 hPa (-1.7)
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 46 mi56 min ENE 5.1 G 6 33°F 1029.7 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME23 mi60 minN 410.00 miFair25°F14°F63%1030.9 hPa

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NW7NW10NW7N4NW4NW4NW74N6N63CalmN3CalmN3N3CalmN4
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN3NW3CalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmSE7SE8SE9SE6SE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Castine, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Castine
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:22 AM EST     8.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST     2.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:07 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:28 PM EST     9.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:54 PM EST     1.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:08 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.94.86.78.28.98.77.86.24.32.92.32.53.45.178.59.39.38.56.84.82.91.71.4

Tide / Current Tables for Little Deer Isle, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Little Deer Isle
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:23 AM EST     8.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 10:19 AM EST     2.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:07 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:29 PM EST     9.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:57 PM EST     1.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:08 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.84.66.68.18.88.77.86.24.42.92.32.43.456.98.49.29.28.46.84.82.91.71.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.