Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belfast, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:11PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:32 PM EST (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:32AMMoonset 10:13PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 1131 Am Est Mon Feb 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Areas of dense fog. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Tue..SW winds up to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain. Areas of fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the morning. Areas of fog in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of snow and rain.
ANZ100 1131 Am Est Mon Feb 19 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will shift eastward today allowing southerly flow to develop on the back side of the high and continue into Wednesday. A cold front will cross the waters late Wednesday into Wednesday evening with high pressure following.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belfast, ME
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location: 44.42, -69.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 191637
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1137 am est Mon feb 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will move east of northern new england today. A
warm front will move north of the region Tuesday and usher in
very warm air for this time of year. A cold front will move
through Thursday ushering in cooler air for the end of the
week. Another two areas of low pressure will move northeast from
the ohio river valley next weekend. These systems will bring
more unsettled weather and possibly mixed precipitation to
portions of maine and new hampshire.

Near term through tonight
Update...

temperatures climbed very rapidly this morning with good mixing
and partly to mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures are now
near 40 degrees in most areas. The exception was in the
mountains where an inversion has kept readings in the 30s.

Southerly winds will continue to increase this afternoon with an
increase in cloud cover, slowly down our quick ascent in
temperatures. Mesoscale models suggest the area of rainfall
associated with a weak short wave and warm air advection over
upstate new york will continue to race eastward today, bringing
precipitation to western portions of the region by around 21 or
22z.

Prev disc... Have updated the forecast based on current
conditions and latest set of mesoscale models. Depsite a cold
start, have adjusted temperatures into the 40s for most areas
for high temperatures. Warm air advection and initially, a very
dry airmass will allow for readings to climb quickly this
morning. Thereafter, clouds will stream in from upstate new york
during the afternoon hours.

Prev disc... 6am update... Minor adjustment to temperatures
which have bottomed out in the single digits in the mountain
valleys and will start to rise with the sun.

Prev disc...

a warming pattern begins today as high pressure moves off to our
east allowing southerly return flow to set up. Early morning
temperatures have dropped into the single digits across the
north in sheltered valleys where clear skies have helped the
radiational cooling. The february Sun will help temperatures
rise early and continue warming through the day as the south to
southwesterly flow takes hold. High temperatures will climb into
the 40s across the area.

Short term Tuesday
Within the southwesterly flow, a weak short wave current over
western new york will move through the ridge late this evening
pushing a warm front through the region overnight. This will spread
precipitation across the area, in the form of scattered
showers. With temperatures both aloft and at the surface well
above freezing most of the area will see this as light rain
showers. The one region for mixed precipitation will be from
rangeley into jackman and central somerset county. Here the low
temperatures will hover at or just below freezing, which may
result is some light icing, especially in the mountains above
2000ft. With no significant mixed precipitation expected in the
populated valleys will not issue an advisory for this marginal
event. Overnight also expect fog to become widespread as warm
air moves over the snowpack and begins to saturate. Pockets of
dense fog are possible.

Tuesday temperatures will continue to climb as 850mb
temperatures climb to near record levels (feb MAX observed 850mb
temp at kgyx is 13c). With the southwesterly flow this sets up a
classic spring scenario, wherein new hampshire and extreme
southwest maine climb into the 60s, while from portland east
through the midcoast onshore flow over 40 degree water keeps
temperatures down and fog and low clouds of a marine layer in
place. This is reflected well in forecast soundings which show
a large surface inversion for krkd and kpwm and a well mixed
region further west through the ct river valley. With the warm
advection just setting up, expect highs to remain below record
despite reaching 60 across southern new hampshire. (see records
in long term section below)

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
In the long term unsettled weather and very warm to much cooler
with even some mixed precipitation over the weekend.

A warm front lifts north of the forecast area Tuesday. This
will lead to potential record breaking warmth on Wednesday.

Currently forecasting record high temperatures for both portland
and concord.

***records for pwm & con***
tue wed
pwm 61 1994 59 1953
con 66 1930 64 1872
expect areas of fog into Wednesday morning with light rain.

Skies should become partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon allowing
the temperatures to soar during the day. Some locations in
southern new hampshire may reach 70 degrees.

A cold front wing swing through Thursday morning with some light
rain showers and much cooler. High pressure builds in Thursday
afternoon.

Models differ a bit on the system for late Friday and Saturday.

Ecmwf is faster than the gfs. Right now have chance pop for
Friday afternoon. Precipitation will likely be snow north and
snow to mix central and to mix and then rain southern locations.

Forecast gets more muddled Sunday as GFS is bullish on surface
low development near the benchmark. For now have snow and mixed
precipitation changing to rain coast then back to snow Sunday
night.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Short term... VFR conditions across the region will come to an
end late this evening as increasing clouds and showers move in
and a warm front lifts through the region. Warm dewpoints over
the snowpack will result in fog overnight dropping conditions to
ifr across the region. Tuesday will seeVFR return for all but
the immediate coastline along the midcoast where ifr in low
ceilings remain possible throughout the day.

Long term... Ifr lifr Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in
fog and rain. Conditions improve toVFR Wednesday afternoon.

MVFR expected Wednesday night as cold front moves through then
vfr Thursday. Ifr returns Friday as surface low approaches from
the southwest.

Marine
Short term... Increasing southwesterly flow around the departing
high pressure will push winds and seas to small craft criteria
and an SCA has been issued for the outer waters, as well as
penobscot bay where the SW flow is favorable for building seas.

Long term... Small craft advisory likely for Wednesday as winds
increase from the southwest and increasing seas.

Hydrology
Will be monitoring the rivers over the next few days as the
warm weather and some rain may lead to enough runoff to cause
ice jam flooding. There are several locations with ice jams in
maine and new hampshire. Looks like a 72 hour period or longer
with temperatures remaining above freezing. It is possible that
the warmer weather will weaken the ice so that any rise in river
levels will just move the ice harmlessly downriver. QPF should
be fairly light with less than a quarter inch expected Monday
night through Wednesday in the south and up to an inch in the
far north near the canadian border.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am est Tuesday for anz150>152-154.

Jc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 25 mi88 min SSW 16 G 19 39°F 37°F4 ft1030.5 hPa
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 43 mi44 min SW 8.9 G 16 42°F 36°F1030.3 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 45 mi32 min S 27 G 31 42°F 1029.5 hPa (-4.1)35°F

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME24 mi36 minSSW 12 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds41°F34°F76%1030 hPa

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW4W7W3NW3CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S9
G14
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1 day agoS7S5SW6----S9S8S13
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S9S6S9SE7E5CalmCalmNW46666NW10
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2 days agoCalmW3W5NW9
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NW7CalmNW5CalmNW4NW7NW86N63E6SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Belfast, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Belfast
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Mon -- 12:48 AM EST     10.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:04 PM EST     11.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:13 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:13 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.310.79.87.85.12.50.80.31.135.78.310.31110.48.65.93.1100.424.47.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Point, Penobscot River, Maine
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Fort Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM EST     10.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:54 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:07 PM EST     10.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:16 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:12 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.110.69.87.95.32.60.70.10.92.85.3810.110.910.48.86.23.41-0.10.21.74.16.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.