Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belfast, ME

Version 3.4
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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 6:27PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 8:36 AM EDT (12:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:09PMMoonset 6:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 718 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..SE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and scattered tstms after midnight. Some tstms may produce gusty winds in the evening.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 718 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A warm front will approach from the southwest today and will lift into northern maine Tuesday night. Low pressure will move northeast through central quebec on Wednesday and will drive a trailing cold front through the region Wednesday night. High pressure will build in from the west on Thursday and will hold over the area on Friday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belfast, ME
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location: 44.42, -69.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 251121 aaa
afdgyx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service gray me
721 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will lift northeast through the region today
through tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on
Wednesday and will push east through the region Wednesday
evening. High pressure build over the region on Thursday and
will hold over the area on Friday. A weak cold front will cross
the region Friday night followed by high pressure Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Update... Minor changes to pop based on latest radar trends. Rain
is about to begin in swrn zones... So I have increased pop values
close to 100 percent.

Previous discussion... A near record surface high pressure for
sep will continue to gradually slide ewd this morning. Return
flow behind the departing high is allowing a large area of waa
forced rainfall to quickly replace it. Rain is expected to
arrive shortly after sunrise for swrn nh... Expanding newd into
central me by afternoon.

Around mid afternoon and into the early evening... A strong sly
llj will lift across the area and help increase the intensity of
rainfall. This is the most likely period for some heavy
rain... And the wording remains in the forecast. The forcing will
become more progressive with time today... So the expectation is
for heaviest rainfall amounts to be across SRN nh and in the se
upslope zones of the white mtns. Probability matched mean qpf
amounts look pretty reasonable... With a stripe of 1.5 to 2 inch
amounts in SRN nh tapering off to just under 1 inch for parts of
midcoast me.

Temps will remain coolish... As strong high supporting cold
dewpoints will lead to some initial cold air damming before
giving way to sly flow aloft. Will also have to watch for some
gusty winds along the coast... As a few of the higher res
guidance sources show potential for 30 to 40 mph gusts.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Back edge of steady rainfall will quickly move newd thru the
forecast area by around midnight. Given we will still be a waa
regime and plenty of moisture lingering around... The chance for
showers cannot be completely removed from the forecast... But a
window is expected overnight of less likely shower activity than
today or wed. Some hi-res convection allowing models (cams)
have an area of showers and storms moving nwd across parts of nh
and coastal WRN me in the morning on what is likely the nose of
deeper moisture. I have included this in the forecast with pop
around 50 percent moving up the coast thru the mid morning
hours.

The real interesting part of the forecast comes Wed afternoon
with the approach of a strong cold front. Believe it or
not... Considering how cold dewpoints were today... Model
forecasts bring near 70 dewpoints back into the area wed
afternoon. Dewpoints have reached the low 60s already as far n
as ttn this hour... And the reservoir of low 70s over the va
tidewater will surge nwd as low and mid level flow becomes
increasingly more sly and then swly. This rich moisture will be
key to developing any instability... As lapse rates aloft will be
poor. If we can succeed in getting upper 60s dewpoints into the
region wed... At least marginal instability is possible.

This is important because winds aloft will be quite
strong... Especially over NRN new england. A broad swly LLJ at h8
in excess of 50 knots is forecast to develop over the
region... With the approach of a greater than 100 knot h5 jet
streak. We will be in the right rear quadrant of that jet
streak... Which will only aid the already sufficient forcing for
ascent along the cold front. So any convection that does form
will be able to tap those low to mid level winds and producing
damaging gusts. The storm prediction center has maintained the
slight risk for severe storms for the majority of the forecast
area. SREF guidance has been increasing the probabilities of
severe wx with each successive run... And cams all show a
continuous or broken squall line approaching the forecast area
at the tail end of their time ranges.

One additional concern that comes with many of these high
shear low CAPE environments is a non-zero tornado threat. With a
lot of shear in the lowest 3 km... And some S to SW turning of
those winds... Along with a sizable percentage of CAPE contained
in the lowest 3 km... The set up is favorable for more intense
low level updrafts and stretching. Additionally... 0-3 km shear
is in excess of 40 knots from about 240 degrees. This means that
any segments of a broken line of convection that can surge out
to a more N S orientation as opposed to the SW to NE boundary
forcing will support line normal 0-3 km shear of at least 30
knots. This is one of the key ingredients for an environment
supportive of mesovortex formation. While damaging winds are the
main threat... The tornado threat cannot be dismissed outright.

The major limiting factor for the forecast area will be
timing... As the front may arrive too late to capitalize on
instability. So the greatest threat area is definitely the wrn
portions of the forecast area.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Cold front will will push offshore late Wednesday evening
bringing an end to showers and thunderstorms. Looking for
clearing behind the front as high pressure builds in from
the west. Lows will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s in
the north and mid to upper 50s in the south.

High pressure will crest over the region on Thursday
producing a mostly sunny day with high clouds moving in
later in the afternoon. High temperatures will average
out near normal with readings ranging through the 60s
from north to south.

Thursday night will feature variable high clouds as high
pressure shifts off to the east. Low temperatures will
range through the 40s to near 50 degrees.

Looking for another dry day Friday as high pressure continue
to move off to the east. Should see a mix of Sun and clouds
with highs once again ranging through the 60s.

A weak moisture starved front will cross the region Friday
night with little more than passing clouds. Best forcing
and dynamics remain north of the border but will include
some low chance pops for far northern zones. Lows will
range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south.

High pressure will build in from the west on Saturday
behind departing cold front. Will see slightly cooler
temperatures with highs from the mid 50s north to the lower to
mid 60s south.

Models diverge for Saturday night and Sunday so have generally
stuck close to sb numbers for pops through the later periods of
the forecast.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term...VFR conditions currently will deteriorate quickly
today. Ra will move in from the sw... And a short period of MVFR
conditions should quickly become ifr or lower as +ra moves in
around 18z. Strongest winds aloft arrive around 00z... Where a
period of llws is likely at all terminals... But especially near
the coast. Ra moves out between 03z and 06z... But MVFR
conditions are expected to linger in shra and bkn CIGS into wed.

Late in the period Wed shra and tsra will approach from the
nw... And that convection may contain strong wind gusts.

Long term...

MVFR ifr ceilings Wednesday evening... BecomingVFR after
midnight.VFR Thursday through Saturday with areas of ifr lifr
ceilings vsby in morning valley fog.

Marine
Short term... Increasing LLJ is expected to focus around 00z
tonight. A period of gale force wind gusts is likely outside of
the bays... So the watch has been upgraded to a warning. The gale
watch remains in effect in the bays... Where strong wind gusts
are still possible but more uncertain. After the LLJ lifts
n... SCA conditions continue into wed.

Long term...

brief period of sca's may extend into Wednesday
evening... Otherwise no problems noted.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
Wednesday for anz151-153.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 2 am edt Wednesday for
anz150-152-154.

Near term... Legro


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 25 mi93 min SSE 12 G 14 55°F 58°F2 ft1036.2 hPa
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 43 mi37 min 55°F 57°F1037.2 hPa (+0.0)
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 45 mi37 min SE 20 G 22 56°F 1036.1 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME24 mi41 minSSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds55°F46°F72%1036.8 hPa

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)
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4NE76SE4SE6SE6CalmCalmW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE7
1 day agoCalmCalm5--S11S8S9S9S7SW7CalmW3CalmCalmCalmNE8NE9
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6NW7N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW5W3W5CalmNW4NW4NW4W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for Belfast, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Fort Point, Penobscot River, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.