Sunday, August20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
South Burlington, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:50PM Sunday August 20, 2017 8:49 PM EDT (00:49 UTC) Moonrise 4:33AMMoonset 7:14PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Burlington, VT
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location: 44.43, -73.25     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 202329
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
729 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

High pressure will be the main influence on the region's
weather through Monday, with clear to partly cloudy skies and
seasonable temperatures. An approaching low pressure system will
increases chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, with
showers lingering into Wednesday. The remainder of the week is
shaping up to be dry, with plentiful sunshine and below normal

Near term through Monday
As of 725 pm edt Sunday... For the early evening refresh, very
little was changed. Just synced up the next few hours based on
current observations. Looking high and dry overnight, with just
the outside chance of patchy fog for those few areas (primarily
eastern vt and 'dacks) where locally cooler areas drop below
crossover temperature (roughly 54-57f) for a few hours. Quick
learning lesson, "crossover temperature" refers to when the air
temperature drops below the lowest dewpoint reading during the
prior afternoon. It's a good fog forecasting technique under
fairly quiet weather regimes where radiational cooling is
expected. Tonight comes close to that type of scenario, except
that we'll be having 15-20 knots of wind about 500-1000 feet
above the surface. That wind may keep just enough mixing going
on in the boundary layer to keep fog at bay, well, at least
thicker fog. In any case, if i'm spending this much time writing
about a little patchy fog, you know it's a very quiet weather
night :)
rest of discussion from earlier this afternoon...

upper low retreating east and high pressure building tonight
with clearing and subsidence. Surface high centered over the mid
atlantic states will move east during the period, and surface
ridge extending north into the forecast area will shift east by
Monday. Light northwest to west wind tonight will become
southerly by Monday morning. Warm air advection on southerly
flow, abundant sunshine and rising heights result in the
potential for MAX temps on Monday to reach well into the 80s.

925mb temp of 22- 23c around btv supports MAX temp near 89.

Excellent prospects to see the partial solar eclipse on Monday
with little in the way of cloud cover.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
As of 332 pm edt Sunday... Active weather during the short term
time period. Deepening 500 mb trough to the west sweeping
through the great lakes strengthening low level flow from the
southwest, especially in the st. Lawrence valley. Precipitable
water begins to climb Monday night, reaching nearly 2 inches by
Tuesday. Surface dewpoints rebounding into the mid to upper 60s
areawide, and around 70 not out of the question in the st.

Lawrence valley. Low level jet of 30-40 knots at 925 through 850
mb increases to 50 knots at 500 mb mainly over the st. Lawrence
valley, provides for increasing 0-6km shear, however upper
level jet dynamics don't quite line up, with right rear left
front couplet lining up further west and north over southern

Surface boundary, mainly evidenced by wind shift and lowering
dewpoints, will reach st. Lawrence valley Tuesday evening and
sweep eastward through the forecast area by Wednesday morning.

Storms to fire ahead of the boundary Tuesday afternoon in the
st. Lawrence valley and move east through evening. Overall pops
increase Tuesday morning west to east, and locally run btv4
based pops from model reflectivity were blended in to show
categorical probabilities with a forecast line of storms.

Storms to be strongest northern new york where low level jet
dynamics and shear line up with surface based CAPE generally
1500- 2000 j kg. As storms move east they will move out of best
shear environment but continue to feed on moisture rich air and
afternoon temperatures again into the 80s. Heavy rainfall rates
possible with efficient warm rainfall processes, however storms
should be moving quickly enough to preclude a flood threat.

Added gusty wind heavy rainfall wording to likely and higher pop
Tuesday afternoon into evening.

Overnight lows will not cool off much especially Monday night
in high dewpoint air, and cooling drying will not arrive in time
Tuesday night to be of much help. MAX temps Tuesday well into
the 80s once again with warm air advection, and will be quite a
muggy day.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 253 pm edt Sunday... The extended forecast will feature
large scale pattern change as deep full latitude trof develops
across the eastern CONUS and ridge builds out west. This will
result in temps returning to at or below normal values with much
less humidity. The forecast challenge will be timing individual
short waves in the southwest to eventually northwest flow aloft
and potential areal coverage of showers. Overall... The
atmosphere will have much less available moisture as pw values
drop below 1.0 and instability is very limited.

On Wednesday... First embedded 5h vort arrives around 18z... Along
with secondary surface convergence line with some additional weak
low level cold air advection behind boundary. Instability is driven
off sfc heating and developing cool pool aloft with deepening
trof... So 30 to 40% chance of showers with maybe a rumble or two of
thunder... But CAPE values are weak. Soundings show high cloud bases
with deep dry layer so areal coverage of showers will be
limited... But some localized gusty winds possible based on sounding
profiles. Progged 850mb temps around 10c support highs upper 60s
mountains to upper 70s warmest values. Low level cold air advection
continues overnight into thurs with progged 850mb temps dropping
btwn 5-7c by 12z thurs. The gradient flow will limit fog development
and keep temps from completely bottoming out with lows mainly 40s
mountains to mid upper 50s valleys.

Thursday... Another embedded 5h vort in the west northwest flow aloft
and associated pocket of -20c air moves across our cwa. This energy
will limited moisture will help to produce isolated scattered
showers during on thurs aftn. Once again areal coverage and amount
of showers will be limited... Because of pws around 0.50 to 0.70.

Progged 850mb temps near 6c support highs upper 50s lower 60s
mountains to lower 70s warmest valleys.

Friday into next weekend... Will feature building 1025mb surface high
pres while aloft remains active with embedded 5h vorts in the
northwest flow. Each piece of energy will have less impact with
limited moisture... So will keep Friday dry at this time... With temps
mainly 60s mountains and lower mid 70s warmer valleys. Lows mainly
in the mid 30s to upper 40s depending upon locations... With coldest
values at slk nek... Especially on Saturday morning. Next weekend is
looking mainly dry with slightly below normal temps and low humidity
values. Highs in the 60s mountains and 70s valleys with lows ranging
from the lower 40s to mid 50s.

Aviation 23z Sunday through Friday
Through 18z Monday... Aviation challenge tonight will be fog br
potential at slk mpv... Followed by increasing surface winds on
Monday afternoon. Crnt surface map shows 1020mb high pres over
central pa with ridge axis across northern ny. This has created
clear skies and light winds withVFR conditions.

Tonight... ExpectingVFR to prevail with exception of periods of
ifr in fog br possible at mpv slk btwn 07-11z. Couple of factors
limiting widespread fog include 950mb winds of 15 to 20
knots... Two days removed from rainfall... And surface temps only
briefly going below cross over values from earlier this aftn.

Have mention tempo group at both mpv slk for potential ifr in
shallow fog br. Otherwise... Surface gradient increases on Monday
with localized gusts to 20 knots possible at slk mss btv aft 16z
withVFR prevailing at all sites.


Monday night:VFR. Slight chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Tuesday:VFR MVFR. Breezy. Likely shra... Slight chance tsra.

Tuesday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra... Chance tsra.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Hanson
near term... Hanson nash
short term... Hanson
long term... Taber
aviation... Taber

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45178 14 mi49 min Calm 69°F 72°F1015.8 hPa (+0.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT6 mi55 minSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F59°F58%1016.7 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY19 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair70°F61°F73%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW7W4S3S3CalmS4CalmCalmW9W4W4W8
1 day agoE6E4E4W3SE5E4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmS5S8S6S9SW8S7SW6NW7NW10NW5NW3NW7W4
2 days agoCalmE3E4E4SE7SE5SE9SE8SE6SW4CalmS5SE8SE6E7S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.