Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 11:10 AM   Moonset 1:52 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 140812 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 412 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
An unsettled weather pattern will continue over the next few days with several rounds of showers, with numerous showers and some embedded thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Seasonable high temperatures and mild overnight lows are expected for much of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...A warm front situated near the international border will be focus for showers this morning.
Clouds and showers will be ongoing at sunrise, and continue into the morning hours. Eventually surface boundary will sink southward, and we could see some thunderstorms with the frontal passage. At this time think we'll just see some garden variety thunderstorms. There's not a lot of strong winds aloft, and much of the convection looks like it will be elevated. Lingering cloud cover during the morning hours, especially across our northern zones, may limit surface based instability.
Temperatures in parts of southern Vermont will be close to the 80 degree mark. Will need to monitor potential for heavy downpours, especially in areas that have more than one thunderstorm cross the location. Shower activity will die down following sunset with remaining instability going away. Showers will continue into the overnight and even into the day Wednesday, though chance for thunder diminishes. Temperatures will remain mild overnight with plenty of cloud cover remaining in place and some showers ongoing. Then temperatures on Wednesday will be not quite as warm as today as a surface cold front will also cross our area.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...The forecast for the latter half of the work week is relatively unchanged from the previous thinking with the main features of interest being a stalling frontal boundary over the region and an upper low closing off over the eastern seaboard. Afternoon convection on Wednesday associated with the stalling surface boundary will gradually dissipate in the evening with the loss of daytime heating and much of Wednesday night should be dry and mild with min temps only in the 50s. As the front stalls over the region on Thursday in response to the upper low closing off, additional showers will develop from mid-day through the afternoon but as mid- level heights rise towards the evening with the approach of a weak mid-level ridge we should see showers rapidly dissipate. Dry conditions follow for Thursday night through Friday with the ridge in place, allowing for temperatures to remain above normal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...Heading into the weekend and early next week, our unsettled pattern continues with almost a rinse and repeat of this week with a frontal passage likely on Saturday, followed by another potential closed low moving offshore on Monday. The greatest chance for showers comes Saturday afternoon with a frontal passage and enhanced PWATs with origins in the Gulf of Mexico, with hit or miss showers possible Sunday with a hint of some weak upper level ridging possible. This is followed by another deepening trough over the eastern seaboard renewing chances for showers Sunday night into Monday. Temps look to remain slightly above normal with highs generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the next few hours. Winds throughout the period will range between southeast to southwest between 5 and 10 knots, with a few gusts 15 to 18 knots at KBTV. Some showers currently moving through the airspace. Showers will be likely across the region between 06z and 10z as frontal boundary lifts north and then stalls near the international border. In heavier elements, 3-6SM visibility and ceilings 2000-3000 ft agl will be possible.
Patches of low level wind shear will develop behind the warm front from about 04z to 10z for 35 to 40 knot southwest winds at 2000 ft agl.

Some partial clearing and lifting ceilings follow the warm front 10z-12z, but where warm front stalls is not entirely certain. Therefore, the forecast maintains VCSH for several terminals. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop about 18z. A weak trough will shift south, with convection near the trough and lifting north-northeast towards the trough axis until it passes south sometime near or after 00z Wednesday. It's too far out now, but some thunderstorms could be strong, and there will be potential for ceiling and visibility reductions between 18z beyond 00z Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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