Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hermon, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:31PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 8:40 AM EST (13:40 UTC) Moonrise 3:30PMMoonset 3:45AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 607 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers through early afternoon, then scattered snow showers late.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Snow showers likely late.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mainly clear.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hermon, NY
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location: 44.45, -75.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 201136
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
636 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Light snow is expected across the north country today. Most of
the area will see less than two inches... But up to 4 inches is
expected across south central and southern vermont. The precipitation
comes to an end tonight and attention will turn to a sharp cold
front that will move across the area on Wednesday. Expect snow
and snow squalls with the front. Sharply reduced visibilities
and bursts of heavy snow will be possible with the snow squalls.

The precipitation comes to an end Wednesday night and very cold
air moves in for thanksgiving with dry conditions... But high
temperatures about 25 degrees below normal for this time of
year.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 606 am est Tuesday... Overall going forecast in good shape
with light to moderate snow over the southern third of vermont.

Elsewhere have noticed fog being reported at most locations and
for this update have included areas of fog to the forecast for
the remainder of the morning. Rest of forecast in good shape and
no other changes needed at this time.

Previous discussion...

band of light snow continues across southern vermont... Essentially
south of a fair haven, vermont to west lebanon, new hampshire.

North of this line little in the way of precipitation is
occurring. Eventually a northern stream shortwave will move east
into the region and we should see some phasing later this
morning of these two features. Most areas will see less than two
inches of snow... But from rutland and windsor counties in
vermont southward up to 4 inches will be possible given the
longer duration of the precipitation across this area. The
morning commute may be impacted in this area. Highs will
generally be in the low to mid 30s.

The snow comes to an end later tonight and there should be a
lull overnight with lows from the mid teens to lower 20s.

Threat for snow squalls will exist on Wednesday as a sharp cold
front moves into the area. Steepening lapse rates... Dry
adiabatic to at least 700 mb... Suggests instability will be
developing ahead of the front. Strong pressure fall rise couplet
associated with shortwave trough moving across the area during
the late morning and afternoon hours will exist and snow squall
parameter values indicate the increase potential for snow
squalls as well. Thinking at this time is snow squalls will
develop over northern new york during the late morning early
afternoon hours and then move into vermont during the early to
mid afternoon hours. Sharply reduced visibilities and bursts of
heavier snow can be expected which will cause travel issues...

especially since it will be a busy travel day ahead of thanksgiving.

Have continued the mention of snow squalls and bursts of heavier
snow in the forecast. Highs will be in the 20s to around 30
with temperatures falling late in the day... Which could result
in any snow covered roads becoming icy.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday
As of 405 am est Tuesday... Wednesday night and Thursday will
feature cold canadian ridge of surface high pressure building
into our area from the north. Chance for any light snow will be
dropping off during the first half of Wednesday night. Most
notable for this timeframe will be the very cold temperatures.

Temperatures will drop sharply Wednesday night behind departing
cold front. Minimum temperatures will dip into the single digits
above and below zero. This is about 20 degrees below seasonal
normals for late november. Then during the day Thursday with
strong cold air advection continuing, will have temperatures
only raising into the single digits above zero to the mid teens,
warmest in the saint lawrence and champlain valleys. It will
also be fairly windy during this timeframe, and we may have to
consider some wind chill headlines if this forecast holds true.

These daytime highs will be about twenty five degrees below
seasonal normals. Although very cold temperatures for thanksgiving
day, we may actually see some peeks of sunshine. Record low
maximum temperatures may be achieved on Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 405 am est Tuesday... Thursday night and Friday will
feature surface and upper level ridging, bringing back dry
weather to the area once again. Thursday night will be another
cold one with temperatures similar to Wednesday night's
readings. Difference will be that the winds drop off with the
building high pressure overhead. See climate section below for
daily climate records for november 22nd and 23rd. High pressure
shifts further east Friday, allowing for the start of some warm
air advection within return southwesterly flow. High temperatures
over the weekend will generally be in the 30s. The next chance
for precipitation comes Saturday night Sunday as troughing
redevelops over the area and an upper-level disturbance moves
through. Details at this point have yet to be ironed out,
however, most likely scenario given the arrival of warmer air
will be a mix of rain and snow. There's yet another rain system
for the late Monday into Tuesday timeframe which may bring even
more rain to the north country.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Through 12z Wednesday... Ifr and lifr conditions are expected
through 00z as clouds, light snow, and fog persist over much of the
area. The precipitation will taper off between 00z and 06z with
visibilities improving into the MVFR andVFR categories. In
addition... Ceilings will improve into the MVFR category as well
during the 00z to 06z time period. Light and variable winds will
become west and northwest late this afternoon and continue for
the remainder of the period. However... Winds will generally be
10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shsn.

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shsn.

Thanksgiving day:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance ra, slight chance sn.

Climate
The record low MAX temperature for burlington for thanksgiving day
is 19 degrees, set on thanksgiving day (november 24th) 1938.

Below are some daily climate records for november 22nd and
23rd.

November 22nd:
record low daily MAX record low daily min
burlington: 22 (2008) 3 (1969)
plattsburgh: 24 (2008) 6 (1972)
montpelier: 18 (2008) 2 (1964)
st. Johnsbury: 22 (2008) 12 (2014)
saranac lake: 10 (1987) -2 (2000)
massena: 22 (1989) 0 (1972)
november 23rd:
record low daily MAX record low daily min
burlington: 20 (1914) 2 (1972)
plattsburgh: 23 (1989) 6 (2000)
montpelier: 21 (2000) -1 (1972)
st. Johnsbury: 22 (2000) 7 (2000)
saranac lake: 18 (2000) -11 (1932)
massena: 18 (2008) 0 (2000)

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Evenson
near term... Evenson
short term... Neiles
long term... Neiles
aviation... Evenson
climate... Rsd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 28 mi40 min 27°F 49°F1014 hPa (-0.3)
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 45 mi40 min 45°F1013.8 hPa (+0.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY36 mi47 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast25°F23°F92%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW8SW8W10
G14
W9W9W4W3N3N4NE3NE5N4NE6NE5NE6N5NE5NE7E7E9E8NE6NE8
1 day agoCalmCalmE3CalmSW7S3S6S5S3CalmE3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW7SW5
2 days agoSW8SW9W11W10W9W9W7W13
G20
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G18
W11W10W11W6W5SW3CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.