Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 5:28AM||Sunset 8:29PM||Sunday May 19, 2019 6:39 AM EDT (10:39 UTC)||Moonrise 8:22PM||Moonset 5:15AM||Illumination 100%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hermon, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbtv 190806|
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
406 am edt Sun may 19 2019
A warm front will produce a band of rain across northern new
york into vermont this morning. Much warmer temperatures with
some humidity will create an environment favorable for
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. A series of surface fronts on Monday will interact
with heat and moisture to produce strong to locally severe
thunderstorms. The primary threat will be isolated damaging
winds, along with frequent lightning and brief heavy down pours.
Cooler and drier weather returns for midweek.
Near term through Monday
As of 331 am edt Sunday... Active period of weather anticipated
with the threat for strong to locally severe thunderstorms
increasing on Monday.
Water vapor this morning shows embedded 5h vort across central
lake ontario with regional vad profiles indicating breezy
southwest flow of 45 to 55 knots associated with 925mb to 800mb
waa. This favorable low level jet is helping to enhance a pocket
of elevated instability with some lightning activity noted over
central lake ontario attm. This band of rain with embedded
rumbles of thunder is progged to lift across northern ny between
09z-15z this morning. The axis of best 850 to 700mb fgen forcing
and associated moisture convergence is over northern ny, but
some moisture lift streaks into central northern vt. Have
continued with chc likely pops thru 15z, with QPF generally a
0.05 to 0.25 across this region. Guidance shows a break in the
action from roughly 15z-20z, before additional showers and
greater threat for thunderstorms develop. Still some question on
forcing along with amount of instability. Crnt thinking weak 5h
vort rides along northern periphery of building ridge provides
enough upper lvl support, while trrn driven sfc boundary
enhances low level convergence for additional precip chcs.
Latest hrrr NAM 3km and btv 4km show showers with embedded
storms developing across southern slv western dacks around 20z,
then spreading into central southern vt where sfc based
instability will approach 1000 j kg. Deep layer shear is
limited, as best 850 to 500mb flow is located northwest of our
cwa, while best instability parameters are across
central western ny. Thinking better chc for strong severe storms
will be across this region, as southwest mid upper lvl flow may
advect high lvl debris clouds into our fa and also limit
instability. Bottom line additional showers are expected with
some embedded storms and maybe a localized wind gusts in the 40
to 45 mph range if enough instability can materialize this aftn.
Have mention likely pops along and south of a potsdam to btv to
white river junction line, with chc north.
Temps are challenging today, with sharp boundary developing
associated with very warm 925mb temps of 18c to 20c across our
southern fa, but values in the 12 to 14c range near the
international border with some NE sfc winds across the slv and
northern cpv developing. Given thermal profiles thinking highs
range from mid 60s slv to l80s southern cpv. Would not be
surprised to see btv near 80f while pbg is m u 60s with SE ne
winds off the cold lake champlain waters.
Tonight areal coverage of precip should decrease around sunset
with best upper level support shifting east and instability
quickly dissipating. However, have noted in some meso models the
threat for additional showers and embedded storm aft 06z as
short wave energy and weak pre-frontal trof approach fa. Have
continued to mention at least chc pops overnight with temps in
the mid 50s to mid 60s with some humidity.
Monday... Another active day with the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms increasing, as forward progression of boundary is
slightly slower in the latest guidance allowing for more sfc
heating instability to develop. Still some question on regards
to amount of clearing as soundings show deep moisture and
potential for clouds, but most meso scale models show sfc temps
warming into the mid upper 70s with dwpts in the 60s, creating
sfc based CAPE values in the 1200 to 2000 j kg range. In
addition, a ribbon of 40 to 55 knot winds btwn 850mb and 700mb
will produce 0 to 6 km shear values in the 40 to 50 knot range.
In addition, as sfc temps warm and profiles aloft cool
associated with height fall from approaching trof, lapse rates
in the lowest 3km will steepen, creating favorable environment|
for winds to transfer toward the sfc. Furthermore, dcape values
are in the 600 to 900 j kg, with some evidence of a dry layer
btwn 700-500mb, helping with dry air entrainment for enhanced
wind potential. Given the thermodynamics and mainly
unidirectional wind flow, the convective mode will be multiple
cellular with some embedded bowing segments, capable of
producing localized damaging winds. How robust the convection
becomes will be largely depend upon amount of instability that
can develop, as multiple trof and boundary in the progressive
southwest flow move across our cwa. Pw's values near 1.50 and
warm cloud depths near 10kft, so any convection will have the
potential to produce localized very heavy rainfall rates, but
storm motions of 35 to 45 mph will limit hydro concerns. The
flash flood threat is minimal, but not zero given the potential
for multiple storms. Temps on Monday should warm mainly into the
70s with some lower 80s possible.
Short term Monday night through Tuesday
As of 240 am edt Sunday... Cold air advection regime for Monday night
and Tuesday as departing cold front continues to push east of the
area. Will have continuing chance for showers on both Monday night
and Tuesday as upper level low still centered to our north will
bring some wrap around moisture into our area. Late in the day
Tuesday surface and upper level lows will both finally begin to push
east of the area and drier weather will return for northern new york
and vermont. Temperatures Monday night will dip into the 40s and
then return to the 50s on Tuesday.
Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
As of 240 am edt Sunday... The long term will start out quiet with dry
weather expected from Tuesday night through early Thursday. Will
have our next chance for showers on Thursday and into Thursday night
as a broad low pressure area crosses the region. A return to dry
weather for Friday, then a low pressure system passes well to our
north Friday night and Saturday but spreads some showers across the
area as a cold front passes early Saturday morning. The GFS is
currently showing a slower solution than the ECMWF and has showers
continue into Sunday. The ECMWF favors the faster solution which
clears us out with a surface ridge building in for Saturday night
and Sunday and drier weather. Lots of uncertainty for next weekends
forecast at this time. Tuesday night and Wednesday start out the
period with below normal temperatures, but then temperatures warm
above normal headed towards the end of the week.
Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
Through 06z Monday... High clouds continue to increase and lower
across our TAF sites early this morning associated with low to
mid level waa. Expecting light rain showers with mainlyVFR
conditions to impact our northern TAF sites this morning. Have
noted some sounding data at mss shows low levels moisture
increasing on northeast flow with potential for some MVFR cigs
during the morning hours. Have kept just above MVFR threshold,
but something to watch as we head into Sunday morning.
Otherwise, additional trrn driven showers with an embedded
storm will redevelop this aftn after 18z, with period heavy
rainfall and some cloud to ground lightning, which may impact
our TAF sites. Have utilized vcsh for now, as areal coverage and
timing is uncertain.
Monday:VFR. Chance shra, chance tsra.
Monday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra.
Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra.
Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.
Wednesday:VFR. No sig wx.
Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.
Thursday:VFR. Chance shra.
Btv watches warnings advisories
near term... Taber
short term... Neiles
long term... Neiles
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY||28 mi||46 min||53°F||51°F||1012.3 hPa|
|ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY||45 mi||46 min||48°F||1011 hPa|
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY||36 mi||47 min||NE 10||10.00 mi||Light Rain||52°F||45°F||77%||1013.7 hPa|
Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||E||E||NE||NE||W|
|2 days ago||W||W||NW||NE||W||W||W||NW|
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (6,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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