Sunday, May19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Hermon, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:29PM Sunday May 19, 2019 6:39 AM EDT (10:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 5:15AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201905191515;;105936 Fzus61 Kbuf 190851 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 451 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019 Slz022-024-191515- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 451 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
Today..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then occasional showers with a chance of Thunderstorms from late evening on. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds late in the evening.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy, then clearing.
Wednesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy.
Thursday..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hermon, NY
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location: 44.45, -75.09     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 190806
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
406 am edt Sun may 19 2019

A warm front will produce a band of rain across northern new
york into vermont this morning. Much warmer temperatures with
some humidity will create an environment favorable for
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. A series of surface fronts on Monday will interact
with heat and moisture to produce strong to locally severe
thunderstorms. The primary threat will be isolated damaging
winds, along with frequent lightning and brief heavy down pours.

Cooler and drier weather returns for midweek.

Near term through Monday
As of 331 am edt Sunday... Active period of weather anticipated
with the threat for strong to locally severe thunderstorms
increasing on Monday.

Water vapor this morning shows embedded 5h vort across central
lake ontario with regional vad profiles indicating breezy
southwest flow of 45 to 55 knots associated with 925mb to 800mb
waa. This favorable low level jet is helping to enhance a pocket
of elevated instability with some lightning activity noted over
central lake ontario attm. This band of rain with embedded
rumbles of thunder is progged to lift across northern ny between
09z-15z this morning. The axis of best 850 to 700mb fgen forcing
and associated moisture convergence is over northern ny, but
some moisture lift streaks into central northern vt. Have
continued with chc likely pops thru 15z, with QPF generally a
0.05 to 0.25 across this region. Guidance shows a break in the
action from roughly 15z-20z, before additional showers and
greater threat for thunderstorms develop. Still some question on
forcing along with amount of instability. Crnt thinking weak 5h
vort rides along northern periphery of building ridge provides
enough upper lvl support, while trrn driven sfc boundary
enhances low level convergence for additional precip chcs.

Latest hrrr NAM 3km and btv 4km show showers with embedded
storms developing across southern slv western dacks around 20z,
then spreading into central southern vt where sfc based
instability will approach 1000 j kg. Deep layer shear is
limited, as best 850 to 500mb flow is located northwest of our
cwa, while best instability parameters are across
central western ny. Thinking better chc for strong severe storms
will be across this region, as southwest mid upper lvl flow may
advect high lvl debris clouds into our fa and also limit
instability. Bottom line additional showers are expected with
some embedded storms and maybe a localized wind gusts in the 40
to 45 mph range if enough instability can materialize this aftn.

Have mention likely pops along and south of a potsdam to btv to
white river junction line, with chc north.

Temps are challenging today, with sharp boundary developing
associated with very warm 925mb temps of 18c to 20c across our
southern fa, but values in the 12 to 14c range near the
international border with some NE sfc winds across the slv and
northern cpv developing. Given thermal profiles thinking highs
range from mid 60s slv to l80s southern cpv. Would not be
surprised to see btv near 80f while pbg is m u 60s with SE ne
winds off the cold lake champlain waters.

Tonight areal coverage of precip should decrease around sunset
with best upper level support shifting east and instability
quickly dissipating. However, have noted in some meso models the
threat for additional showers and embedded storm aft 06z as
short wave energy and weak pre-frontal trof approach fa. Have
continued to mention at least chc pops overnight with temps in
the mid 50s to mid 60s with some humidity.

Monday... Another active day with the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms increasing, as forward progression of boundary is
slightly slower in the latest guidance allowing for more sfc
heating instability to develop. Still some question on regards
to amount of clearing as soundings show deep moisture and
potential for clouds, but most meso scale models show sfc temps
warming into the mid upper 70s with dwpts in the 60s, creating
sfc based CAPE values in the 1200 to 2000 j kg range. In
addition, a ribbon of 40 to 55 knot winds btwn 850mb and 700mb
will produce 0 to 6 km shear values in the 40 to 50 knot range.

In addition, as sfc temps warm and profiles aloft cool
associated with height fall from approaching trof, lapse rates
in the lowest 3km will steepen, creating favorable environment
for winds to transfer toward the sfc. Furthermore, dcape values
are in the 600 to 900 j kg, with some evidence of a dry layer
btwn 700-500mb, helping with dry air entrainment for enhanced
wind potential. Given the thermodynamics and mainly
unidirectional wind flow, the convective mode will be multiple
cellular with some embedded bowing segments, capable of
producing localized damaging winds. How robust the convection
becomes will be largely depend upon amount of instability that
can develop, as multiple trof and boundary in the progressive
southwest flow move across our cwa. Pw's values near 1.50 and
warm cloud depths near 10kft, so any convection will have the
potential to produce localized very heavy rainfall rates, but
storm motions of 35 to 45 mph will limit hydro concerns. The
flash flood threat is minimal, but not zero given the potential
for multiple storms. Temps on Monday should warm mainly into the
70s with some lower 80s possible.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday
As of 240 am edt Sunday... Cold air advection regime for Monday night
and Tuesday as departing cold front continues to push east of the
area. Will have continuing chance for showers on both Monday night
and Tuesday as upper level low still centered to our north will
bring some wrap around moisture into our area. Late in the day
Tuesday surface and upper level lows will both finally begin to push
east of the area and drier weather will return for northern new york
and vermont. Temperatures Monday night will dip into the 40s and
then return to the 50s on Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
As of 240 am edt Sunday... The long term will start out quiet with dry
weather expected from Tuesday night through early Thursday. Will
have our next chance for showers on Thursday and into Thursday night
as a broad low pressure area crosses the region. A return to dry
weather for Friday, then a low pressure system passes well to our
north Friday night and Saturday but spreads some showers across the
area as a cold front passes early Saturday morning. The GFS is
currently showing a slower solution than the ECMWF and has showers
continue into Sunday. The ECMWF favors the faster solution which
clears us out with a surface ridge building in for Saturday night
and Sunday and drier weather. Lots of uncertainty for next weekends
forecast at this time. Tuesday night and Wednesday start out the
period with below normal temperatures, but then temperatures warm
above normal headed towards the end of the week.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
Through 06z Monday... High clouds continue to increase and lower
across our TAF sites early this morning associated with low to
mid level waa. Expecting light rain showers with mainlyVFR
conditions to impact our northern TAF sites this morning. Have
noted some sounding data at mss shows low levels moisture
increasing on northeast flow with potential for some MVFR cigs
during the morning hours. Have kept just above MVFR threshold,
but something to watch as we head into Sunday morning.

Otherwise, additional trrn driven showers with an embedded
storm will redevelop this aftn after 18z, with period heavy
rainfall and some cloud to ground lightning, which may impact
our TAF sites. Have utilized vcsh for now, as areal coverage and
timing is uncertain.


Monday:VFR. Chance shra, chance tsra.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday:VFR. Chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Taber
near term... Taber
short term... Neiles
long term... Neiles
aviation... Taber

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 28 mi46 min 53°F 51°F1012.3 hPa
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 45 mi46 min 48°F1011 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Massena, Massena International-Richards Field, NY36 mi47 minNE 1010.00 miLight Rain52°F45°F77%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from MSS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmW4W5W535W7NW6----NW3N3CalmCalmE4SE3CalmCalmE3NE4E6NE7E5NE10
1 day agoE4E8NE6NE3W6
2 days agoW6W7NW7NE3W11W8W8NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.