Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kewaunee, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:23PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:16 PM CST (23:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 1:27AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ542 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 305 Pm Cst Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly clear.
Sunday..W wind 15 to 20 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Mostly Sunny.
Sunday night..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of light snow after midnight.
Monday..W wind 5 to 10 kts veering N 10 to 15 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow.
LMZ542 Expires:201811180530;;457480 FZUS53 KGRB 172105 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 305 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-541>543-180530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kewaunee, WI
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location: 44.45, -87.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 172305
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
505 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 211 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018
remaining rather cold through thanksgiving day, then temperatures
warming to above normal for the remainder of the holiday weekend.

The persistent, broad, deep longwave trough that has been across
the area will remain in place a little longer, though a
transition to a more progressive pattern is already beginning out
in the pacific. The effects of the pattern change won't become
apparent until after thanksgiving day, when the upstream ridge
progresses into the area. There are some indications that the
pattern change won't last long. Although there isn't great
agreement among the medium range models, the overall trend seems
to be for the mid-continent upper trough to return.

Temperatures will remain below normal through thanksgiving day,
then warm to above normal levels as the flow flattens. There will
be a few opportunities for precipitation, but none look
significant. So totals will probably end up AOB for the period.

Normal precipitation for a week at this time of year is a little
less than one-half inch for most of the area.

Short term Tonight and Sunday
issued at 211 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018
the latest rap analysis and satellite radar imagery show arctic
high pressure building southeast across the northern plains and
into the western great lakes. Cold advection continues on the
eastern periphery of the high thanks to northwest winds. The cold
low level airmass with help from moisture fluxes off lake superior
continue to generate broken strato-cu over north-central and
northeast wi. Drier air is making progress across northwest wi,
and should see some clearing occur late this afternoon from west
to east. Forecast concerns generally revolve around sky cover and
temps in the short term.

Tonight... High pressure will continue to edge southeast tonight
across the plains, but also nose into the western great lakes.

Dry air with the incoming ridge axis will continue to spread east,
and continue the trend of clearing skies. Eastern wi will be the
last to clear, most likely by mid-evening. Will still have the
northern edge of some cirrus pass over areas south of highway 29
overnight, but without much consequence. The pressure gradient
will remain relatively tight tonight, so remained conservative
with low temps despite skies becoming mostly clear. Lows ranging
from the single digits over the northwoods to the upper teens near
lake michigan.

Sunday... The surface ridge axis will slide southeast into the
southern great lakes while a weak cold front drops south over lake
superior. The northern branch of the jet stream will likely push
some cirrus to the area through the day, but clouds along the
front will most likely remain north of the region. With a breezy
west to southwest wind, highs will range from the mid 20s in the
north to the low 30s over the fox valley.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
issued at 211 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018
a shortwave and surface trough front will drop southeast across
the area Sunday night into Monday. A broad but rather weak area of
qg forcing along with some fgen forcing will accompany the
features through the region. The result should be a round of light
snow, especially across the north. Lake-effect snow showers off
lake superior will linger in the snowbelt as the system snows
depart.

The large scale flow will become progressive by the time the next
shortwave digs southeast into the longwave trough position
Tuesday Tuesday night. Given the rising upper heights, chance
pops (mainly across the north northeast) seemed adequate to cover
the situation for now.

The upper changes will cause the next incoming anticyclone to pass
north of the area. The resulting low-level easterly flow across
lake michigan could lead to some flurries in the east early on
thanksgiving day.

The situation for the remainder of the forecast period is more
muddled. Another precipitation event is possible late in the
period as the remnants of the western ridge shift through the area
and the upper flow tilts back to the southwest. But considerable
uncertainty exists concerning the timing and track of the
resulting weather system. But in any case, it does not appear
likely to be a major storm.

Other than to better resolve the lake-effect potential, no
significant changes were necessary to the standard forecast
initialization grids.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 500 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018
skies will continue to clear from north to south this evening as
high pressure builds in across the western great lakes. Generally
clear skies are expected until Sunday afternoon across the north
and west when a low pressure system approaches lake superior.

Despite the clouds, ceilings should beVFR throughout the taf
period.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Mpc
long term... ... Skowronski
aviation... ... .Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 1 mi28 min NNW 5.1 G 7 30°F 1026.5 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 45 mi28 min WNW 6 G 8 29°F 40°F1027.3 hPa-5°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI23 mi20 minN 410.00 miOvercast29°F16°F58%1030.3 hPa

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8W10NW5NW8NW9NW8NW6NW5NW6NW5NW6NW5N7N12N8N8
G14
N12NW11N9NW5N8N6NW7N4
1 day agoS7S8S8S7S6SW4SW6SW5SW4SW3W11W12W8W11W11W11
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2 days agoS4CalmS3CalmS3CalmSW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W3CalmCalmS3S10S9S9S8S12S10S11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.