Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kewaunee, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:29PM Thursday February 21, 2019 3:43 PM CST (21:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:13PMMoonset 9:08AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ542 Expires:201902220515;;300370 Fzus53 Kgrb 212118 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 318 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz541>543-220515- Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 318 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019
Tonight..W wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
Friday..W wind 5 to 10 kts backing S in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly Sunny.
Friday night..SE wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy.
Saturday..E wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow, drizzle and freezing drizzle. Light rain likely in the afternoon. Wave height forecast is for ice free areas.
LMZ542


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kewaunee, WI
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location: 44.45, -87.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 212059
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
259 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Short term Tonight and Friday
issued at 258 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019
fairly quiet weather through much of the short-term portion of the
forecast, which will be the calm before the upcoming weekend winter
storm.

Tonight into Friday: the weather during this time period will be
largely controlled by a surface ridge. This will keep the weather
fairly quiet, in regards to any precipitation. Aloft, the area will
be under near zonal flow to begin with; however, the western great
lakes will be just ahead of falling heights overnight into Friday.

This will lead to increased west to southwesterly flow into the area
just above the surface. The main impact this would have is an
increase in cloud cover as moisture to the southwest of the area
begins advecting in. This would likely be mid to high clouds, which
will generally have an impact on temperatures; however, there will
be an increase in cloud thickness from the west late Friday
afternoon. This will be ahead of the next system. Overnight lows may
be a bit tricky tonight as this will be highly dependent upon cloud
cover. Current thinking is that mid to high clouds will be
reinforced across the area, helping to keep temps a bit higher;
therefore, opted not to go with the coldest guidance, but did trend
a little colder. If the clouds are too thin or take a while to come
in, then temperatures could tank overnight.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
issued at 258 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019
focus in this part of the forecast remains on the winter storm due
to impact the region this weekend. The forecast track of the
cyclone has been quite steady over the past 24 hours, judging by
looking at the GFS ensemble mean, and favor the ECMWF for the
details.

Friday night and Saturday... A 35 kt low level jet is anticipated to
develop over the northern mississippi valley and push east across
the state on Friday night. Increasing elevated moisture transport
and mid-level fgen will lead to light precip spreading in from the
west after midnight over central and north-central wi but may wait
until after 12z Sat before moving into eastern wi. Timing has slowed
down some over the past 24 hours, but still appears that all areas
will have a chance of light snow late Friday night into Saturday
morning. Up to an inch appears possible with best chances over
north-central wi. As the warm advection pushes east of the region
by mid to late morning, models insist on mid-level moisture scouring
out, while levels below 700-800mb remain saturated. This setup is
favorable for periods of drizzle through the rest of the day.

Temperatures should begin to rise above freezing over eastern wi by
9-10 am, so the threat of freezing drizzle should be rather minimal.

But with temps not warming above 32f until midday or early afternoon
across the far north, could see a freezing drizzle threat for a few
hours. Under cloudy skies, highs on Saturday will warm into the mid
30s at most locations.

Saturday night and Sunday... An intensifying area of low pressure
remains on track to move from northern missouri to northern lake
michigan on Saturday night. Strong forcing on the nose of a 50-60
kt low level jet and differential positive vorticity advection will
push heavy precip from southwest to northeast across the area from
mid to late evening. Wouldnt be surprising to see some thunder as
well, given the mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 c km. Thermal
profiles suggest mainly rain across eastern wi as this heavy precip
arrives, snow across north-central wi, and a wintry mix in between.

As the upper cyclone moves overhead, cooling temperatures should
lead precip changing from rain to snow from northwest to southeast
late Saturday night over eastern wi. However, snowfall is expected
to be very heavy across central and north-central wi, with an inch
per hour snowfall rates likely. 6 to 10 inches of accumulations will
be possible by morning over the north. The heaviest snow will most
likely have pushed off to the north by mid Sunday morning, but gusty
northwest winds to 40 or 45 mph will likely lead to hazardous
conditions continuing through the afternoon. Blowing and drifting
snow could become a significant concern, particularly over central
wi which is more prone to this type of hazard than further north. In
the end, 8 to 12 inches looks likely across north-central wi from
the system, 5 to 8 inches over central wi, while amounts may only
reach 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inches over eastern wi.

Rest of the forecast... Some light snow showers may linger over far
northern wi on Sunday night. Otherwise, winds will remain gusty
through through the night, which may lead to some minor blowing and
drifting of the new snow, particularly on north-south oriented
highways. The colder air will trail the system, and push into the
area on Monday. Highs will on rise into the low to mid teens.

Although high pressure will build into the area on Monday night, a
weak system will bring a chance of widespread light snow to the area
on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some accumulations appear possible,
perhaps an inch or two. The flow will remain out of the northwest
for the rest of the week, which will keep temps below normal.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1123 am cst Thu feb 21 2019
outside of a few flurries, fairly quiet weather expected through
the short-term portion of the forecast. The biggest concern will
be low to mid cloud potential through tonight.VFR MVFR conditions
are noted at most TAF sites this morning; however, rhi has been
generally staying around 1500 ft ceilings. That patch of clouds
extends farther west int northwest wi, so the ceilings will likely
linger for a good portion of the afternoon. CWA and auw could end
up seeing some MVFR ceilings at times, as there are some lower
clouds upstream, but they have had trouble advancing very far east
this morning. The rest of the TAF sites will likely remainVFR.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Cooley
long term... ... Mpc
aviation... ... .Cooley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 1 mi56 min WSW 8.9 G 12 28°F 1019.2 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 45 mi62 min SW 6 G 8.9 32°F 35°F1018.6 hPa-4°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manitowoc, Manitowoc County Airport, WI23 mi48 minW 1110.00 miFair28°F16°F60%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from MTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE13S12S9SW6SW12
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1 day agoS6S8S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSE10SE12E10E13E17E18
G23
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2 days agoNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmW3W4W6W5W5W5W4W4W5W7SW8SW5E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.