Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake City, MN

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Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 9:01PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 6:31 AM CDT (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:28AMMoonset 12:24PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City, MN
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location: 44.46, -92.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 251034
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
534 am cdt Tue jun 25 2019

Updated for 12z TAF discussion below
Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 435 am cdt Tue jun 25 2019
short term concerns remain convective threat over the far northeast
cwa this afternoon and threat of convection developing later tonight
into Wednesday.

Isolated showers finally dissipating across the mn cwa. Patchy mid
clouds remains. Should see plenty of sunshine with some cumulus
developing. Some hires models develop some widely scattered
convection over the northeast CWA later afternoon and ending in the
early evening. The short wave over northeast north dakota is forecast
to move east and drop over northeast mn this afternoon. Mucapes are
forecast to around 500 j kg over the far northeast CWA in the
afternoon. Will mention small chance pop over the far northeast for
the afternoon early evening. Elsewhere, some cumulus expected with
breezy conditions developing into the afternoon, we are expecting
temperatures to warm through the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Later tonight, we see WAA pattern developing to the southwest. This
could develop some scattered thunder into the southwest later
tonight. Some hires solutions develop some elevated convection to
the southwest and over south dakota later tonight associated with a
possible short wave. The href solution moves this possible complex
east into western mn Wednesday morning and dieing to the southeast
by late morning. The 06z NAM backed off on overall instability into
mn but still has the short wave moving in. Will have to carry a
small pop into Wednesday morning over the west for the possibility
href hrrr arw solution. By late afternoon or early evening the
surface warm front will be working into southwest mn and will be the
focus for convective development possibly before 00z Thu to the
southwest as airmass becomes very unstable. Wednesday high
temperatures are expected to warm to the 80 to 85 degree range.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)
issued at 435 am cdt Tue jun 25 2019
the first potential heat wave of the summer and convective trends
through Monday continue to be the focus for the long term.

The warm front will lift north Wednesday night with potential
convection firing as soon as late Wednesday afternoon. The chance
will grow Wednesday evening as a LLJ develops over the central
plains to eastern nebraska and western iowa. Elevated mixed layer
will also advance north with lapse rates exceeding 8 c km across
southern mn Wednesday night. In addition, rich low level moisture
will reach the CWA during this period, allowing for only a
weakly capped atmosphere overnight and MUCAPE exceeding 3000
j kg. Negative factors for thunderstorm development include
rising mid level heights and a forcing mechanism aside from the
llj. If a remnant MCV or other disturbance can also interact with
this environment, there will be a good risk of severe thunderstorms
south of i-94.

By Thursday, models are in decent agreement in showing a
disturbance riding the crest of the ridge across the upper midwest
during the late morning and afternoon. If convection is void
Wednesday night, the risk of thunderstorm development will be
quite a bit higher Thursday afternoon with this wave moving
across. Temperatures may also be cooler than forecast Thursday,
should we have a severe MCS move through during peak heating.

The ridge builds in aggressively Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
with a 595 dm height expected across the central plains Saturday.

At this point, it appears the probability is low for convection
during this period with disturbances likely remaining well to the
north and east. However, the risk is not zero with mesoscale
features acting as the main driver for convection in these
circumstances. Continued to keep forecast highs and lows close to
the nbm, but did raise highs a couple degrees in some places
Saturday. 925 mb temps of +26 to +28c on most of the guidance
suggests highs in the mid 90s in most places, and possibly upper
90s over west central mn. In addition, ample moisture at the 850
mb level would keep surface dew points from mixing too low,
despite the lack of evapotranspiration expected from delayed
agriculture growth. Dew points should rise into the lower 70s,
which would make for heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s
Saturday. Lows Friday and Saturday nights should remain in the mid
70s most locations. Excessive heat warnings or heat advisories
are appearing likely, especially given the lackluster heat we have
had all season.

The heat should persist into Sunday and possibly into early next
week. There are differences amongst the guidance with how far
south a cold front sags during this period. Adding to the
temperature uncertainty is convective potential with said front.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 533 am cdt Tue jun 25 2019
vfr through period. May see some widely scattered shra isold tsra
over northwest wi this afternoon but should remain north and of of
wi TAF sites. Just some cumulus 4-6k ft late morning and becoming
mainly skc early tonight with some mid high level clouds moving
into the west late. Surface winds becoming w-nw with some gusts to
25kts possible especially over the northeast areas. Then becoming
light SW into tonight.

Kmsp... No additional concerns.

Outlook for kmsp
wed night...VFR. Chc MVFR tsra. Winds SW 5-10 kts.

Thu...VFR. Chc MVFR tsra. Winds sse 5-10 kts.

Fri...VFR. Winds SE 5-10 kts. &&

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Dwe
long term... Borghoff
aviation... Dwe


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI16 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair54°F53°F100%1006.1 hPa

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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.