Marine Weather and Tides
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly
|Sunrise 6:18AM||Sunset 8:08PM||Monday August 20, 2018 10:01 AM CDT (15:01 UTC)||Moonrise 3:23PM||Moonset 12:08AM||Illumination 67%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
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area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
654 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
Updated for 12z aviation discussion
Issued at 644 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 420 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the region
today. The main threat is localized heavy rain. For example, radar
estimates up near mille lacs showed 5 to 6 inches on both the dual-
pol and mrms precip maps, but this was only over a few square miles.
At this point, it appears the heaviest rain should fall along and
south of i-90. There is nearly zero chance of severe storms. The
clouds and rain will keep temperatures on the cooler side for today.
Early morning water vapor and radar imagery showed a compact
upper level low across southwest iowa, with widespread rain
covering much of the state. Over the next 24 hours, the forcing
associated with this wave will lift northeast and bring rain
across southeast minnesota and western wisconsin. Meanwhile,
another area of showers and thunderstorms from southwest mn to
northeast mn should gradually weaken this morning as the forcing
subsides. Hires models are in good agreement with this solution,
but still develop convection along the boundary throughout the
day, so did not go dry but did try to emphasize the better
rainfall potential across the south.
As mentioned earlier, the main threat with todays storms is
localized heavy rain. Storms will be very slow-moving, so a quick 2
to 3 inches is certainly possible under a few of the stronger cells.
There is not enough CAPE or shear to support a realistic threat for
severe weather today which is why SPC only had general thunder
chances across the upper midwest.
Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 420 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
high pressure builds into the upper midwest Tuesday, with northerly
winds keeping highs in the mid-70s under clearing skies. Dry
weather continues into Thursday as high pressure remains over the
region with northwest flow aloft keeping temperatures a few
degrees below normal. Northwest flow aloft may usher in the return
of smoke and hazy skies from western canadian wildfires, but the
impact of this smoke on air quality on the ground is still
unknown. Models remain in good agreement with brining a shortwave
into the upper midwest Thursday night into Friday. Current timing
would bring the best forcing into our area overnight into Thursday|
into Friday morning when instability is at its lowest so not
expecting strong severe weather with this system. With the broad-
scale forcing aloft from the shortwave and pw values up around 1.5
inches models are depicting the potential for a widespread
soaking rain of 0.5-1 inches across minnesota and wisconsin, which
would help areas continue catch up on the rainfall deficit in
august so far.
Heading into the weekend, 500 mb ridging begins to build over the
lower mississippi valley allowing heat and humidity to build. A
stationary front sets up somewhere over minnesota wisconsin
Saturday afternoon through Monday providing a focus for the next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is low in the
location of this front so have kept low precipitation chances for
now. South of this boundary temperatures will warm well-above
normal as the ridging aloft builds, with highs likely reaching the
upper 80s and even a few 90s into early next week.
Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 644 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
today will be cloudy with scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm to the south and east. The lowest clouds will be at
kaxn, krwf, and kmkt. Winds will be northeast today, but then
should become northwesterly later tonight as drier air slowly
moves across the region.
msp should have a few showers nearby this morning, but expect a
better chance of showers and even some thunderstorms later this
afternoon. These storms could have lower visbys with heavy rain,
but winds should be light. Could see MVFR clouds develop later
Outlook for kmsp
wed...VFR. Wind W at 5 kts.
Thu...VFR with -tsra possible overnight. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
Fri... MVFR possible early. ThenVFR. Wind SE at 10g20 kts.
Mpx watches warnings advisories
Short term... Jrb
long term... Eta
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|Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI||16 mi||66 min||ENE 4||10.00 mi||Fair||70°F||64°F||83%||1012.9 hPa|
Wind History from RGK (wind in knots)
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (11,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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