Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake City, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:42PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 5:46 AM CDT (10:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:24PMMoonset 1:54AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City, MN
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location: 44.46, -92.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 231045
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
545 am cdt Wed may 23 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 358 am cdt Wed may 23 2018
thunderstorms developed as promised in far southwest south
central minnesota prior to midnight, and slowly spread
east southeast and continued to form close to the same areas.

Thus, there is an increasing chance of localized flooding in flood
prone areas where locally two to three inches of rainfall is
likely before the thunderstorms begin to dissipate and move east.

There were a few thunderstorm cores that had strong updrafts and
probably produced up to nickel size hail, but most of the hazard
early this morning was related to heavy rainfall, and localized
flooding. In west central wisconsin, localized dense fog formed
even with a dense overcast cirrus shield after midnight. Although
some areas will likely see the dense fog through sunrise, the fog
isn't expected to be widespread.

The thunderstorms in far southern minnesota will likely continue to
form through sunrise along the nose of the modest low level jet
before slowly decreasing in areal coverage. The best chance of
continued thunderstorm activity will be along and south of the
minnesota river valley. Typically, as the low level jet decreases in
the morning, thunderstorms should wane. By the mid late morning
hours, most areas will be dry with the exception in south
central southeast minnesota were the remnants of the decaying
thunderstorms will hold. By the afternoon, instability will once
again increase, but there should be an increasing cap limiting re-
firing of the thunderstorms in southern minnesota. However, i
wouldn't be surprised to see some activity along any outflow
boundary from the morning thunderstorms. The best potential of re-
firing of the thunderstorms will occur in central minnesota where
the cap will be weakest. Slowly overnight, precipitation chances
will increase in central, then east central minnesota, and portions
of west central wisconsin. However, this is related to the nose of
the low level jet. If this jet decides to move further to the north,
precipitation chances will be much lower.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 358 am cdt Wed may 23 2018
an active and hot long term period is on the way, with memorial
day looking to be the hottest much of the area has seen in over 10
years (see the climate discussion below for details).

The warmth will build on Thursday as mid level ridging works into
the central conus. 925-850mb temps warm well into the +20c's, and
breezy southerly flow should support deep mixing. There could be
some residual cloud cover from nocturnal convection, but clouds
should scour out sufficiently to achieve highs in the 85 to 95
degree range. An approaching high plains shortwave and attendant
height falls should help erode any weak cap that's in place on
Thursday afternoon and evening. Progged shear is modest, but could
still see sufficient instability to support a few hail wind-
producing severe thunderstorms. As the low level jet strengthens
on Thursday night, expect convection to spread eastward across the
area.

Friday should be another hot day ahead of the cold front
associated with the low pressure system, with a potential for
85-95 degree readings again. Storms would most likely be primarily
restricted to areas along east of interstate 35.

The ridge continues to build this weekend as a closed low rotates
over the southwestern CONUS and a tropical disturbance affects the
atlantic. While there is often a chance of a dirty ridge (as the
gfs is hinting at), prefer the overall dry and hot scenario the
ecmwf offers through the beginning of next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 545 am cdt Wed may 23 2018
main concern is whether the complex of thunderstorms in
southwest south central minnesota expand further to the northeast
and affect east central southeast minnesota before 18z. Based on
current trends of radar and some uncertainty on how far these
storms move to the northeast, will keep krwf kmkt in vcts through
14z. Elsewhere, confidence is high that most of the activity will
dissipate before 18z. Winds will be generally from the southeast
with some gusts in the afternoon. Morning dense fog at keau should
dissipate after 14z. Only a small chance of redevelopment of
thunderstorms this evening in central east central minnesota. Will
continue the trend ofVFR conditions and only prob30 at kaxn.

Kmsp...

confidence is low on any thunderstorms affecting the terminal this
morning. However, some uncertainty remains, so kept vcts between
14-16z when the best chance of any storms in the southwest drift
over east central minnesota. Otherwise,VFR conditions with low
chance of any redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon or
evening.

Outlook for kmsp
thu... MainlyVFR with isold tsra. Best chc late. Wind S 10 kts.

Fri... MainlyVFR chc of shra tsra. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

Sat...VFR. Wind wsw 5-10 kts.

Climate
Issued at 358 am cdt Wed may 23 2018
memorial day looks to have the potential to be the hottest we've
seen in over 10 years, and in the top 5 warmest in some locations.

Forecast highs for Monday are 87, 89, and 90 degrees at eau
claire, st cloud, and minneapolis respectively. Here is how those
would stack up climatologically speaking for memorial day:
kmsp:
*last time we hit 90 degrees or higher on memorial day - 94 on
may 29, 2006
*record value for memorial day - 95 on may 30, 1939
*top 5 warmest (including ties):
5 30 1939 (95),
5 29 2006 (94),
5 30 1988 (91),
5 30 1994 (91),
5 30 1944 (88),
5 30 2011 (88)
kstc:
*last time we hit 90 degrees or higher on memorial day - 92 on may
29, 2006
*record value for memorial day - 92 (occurred on 5 30 1939,
5 30 1994, and 5 29 2006)
*top 5 warmest (including ties):
5 30 1939 (92),
5 30 1994 (92),
5 29 2006 (92),
5 30 1988 (91),
5 26 2014 (86)
keau:
*last time we hit 90 degrees or higher on memorial day - 95 on
may 29, 2006
*record value for memorial day - 95 on may 29, 2006
*top 5 warmest (including ties):
5 29 2006 (95),
5 30 1988 (90),
5 30 1953 (88),
5 30 1994 (88),
5 30 2011 (86)

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Jlt
long term... Ls
aviation... Jlt
climate... Ls


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI16 mi71 minE 35.00 miFog/Mist57°F55°F94%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from RGK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmCalmSW4W4CalmS4SE5SE6S3SE6SE6SE3E4SE5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm
1 day agoE5E5E6SE10SE9E7SE8SE10SE9SE8E8SE8SE6E3E4CalmCalmSE5E4N3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE7E8E7E6E6SE4SE3S4NE4E6S6S6SE4SE3E5S3S5------SE9SE7SE7E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.