Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:00 AM   Moonset 11:16 AM

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FXUS63 KMPX 020105 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 805 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain returns Thursday with amounts of at least half an inch from south-central MN to western WI.

- The pattern favors warmer and wetter conditions as we head into next week with rain chances Saturday and early next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 751 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Radar returns continued across the region, but most of the echoes were not hitting the ground. Rain chances will increase after midnight, and become widespread early Thursday.

One change from the previous forecast was to linger drizzle into Thursday afternoon as the main area of precipitation lifts northeast. Forecast soundings show low level moisture indicating the potential for drizzle.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Sun has become more abundant as we've progressed through the afternoon owed to the clearing stratocumulus. Temperatures have warmed in response with low to mid 60s present across the CWA Lows tonight will drop into the 40s as overcast skies move in from southwest to northeast ahead of our next incoming shortwave. WAA showers will also develop and push through in the same fashion Thursday morning lasting thru late Thursday morning in southwest MN to Thursday afternoon in western WI. NBM QPF totals are rather impressive with a 50% chance of everywhere (except extreme western MN) receiving at least 0.50". Highest totals are expected in southeastern MN and western WI with likelihoods of 50% and 25% matching to near 1" and over 1.25", respectively. Clearer skies prevail by Friday, allowing highs to warm into the mid to upper 60s.
Despite breezier southwesterly winds, it will be a great day to end the work week. However, our weekend won't have too great of a start as another shortwave arrives from the west Friday night into Saturday. This will bring another chance of rain showers, though guidance suggests rainfall amounts won't be as significant as Thursday's. Perhaps another positive is that forecast soundings hint that showers could finish up later Saturday afternoon so at least the evening could be nice for outside activities.

Sunday continues to look like the nicest day of the weekend as upper- level ridging begins to shift into the Northern Plains. Sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s should allow for a perfect early May day. Following behind this ridge, ensemble and deterministic models show a powerful, amplified trough arriving over the western CONUS Sunday. This trough is favored to further dig and become more negatively-tilted as it moves east across the Rockies into Monday. Strong, southerly WAA would occur ahead of the trough, which should amplify the downstream ridge and create very warm temperatures in our region Monday. Indeed, NBM as of now has highs well into the 70s area wide. However, precip chances will also likely grow as the southerly warm conveyor belt will also advect moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms will become more likely across the entire Plains region as Monday progresses, especially as we get later in the day with more daytime heating. Timing of the trough's ejection is currently a little offset for maximum thunderstorm potential, but the Storm Prediction Center has already outlined a 15% risk area of severe weather over the Plains next Monday. Time will tell how if/how far instability can travel into our region but there is a good chance of another widespread rainfall event the first half of next week.

Model solutions diverge greatly afterwards, leading to low predictability for finer forecast details. However, long-range ensemble guidance favors us to still be in a more active precipitation pattern through the first week and a half of May.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 751 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions will continue this evening, but rain will move in overnight from the south. As it does ceilings will lower with MVFR becoming IFR Thursday morning. Visibility should drop to 2 miles, but could lower even further at times. Fog/drizzle will develop during the afternoon and linger into the evening. Winds will be out of the east, with gusts near 20 kts possible. The winds will decrease toward evening.

KMSP...
Rain chances will increase around 10Z, with widespread rain continuing for most of the morning. Once the heaviest rain lifts northeast, periods of drizzle and fog will continue into the evening, with IFR ceilings.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind W at 15G25 kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA. Wind NW at 10G15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S at 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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