Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake City, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 9:48 PM CST (03:48 UTC) Moonrise 12:54PMMoonset 10:46PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City, MN
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location: 44.46, -92.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 142338 aaa
afdmpx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
538 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 241 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
main concerns in the short term, temperature trends and timing and
chance of precipitation moving into the northern CWA by late
Thursday afternoon.

Latest IR and visible satellite showing some high clouds streaming
east southeast along the northern tier of states associated with the
more zonal jet streak moving through the area. These clouds will
continue to sag southeast and should thin overnight. A breezy south
to southwest wind should help keep overall low temepratures on the
mild side, with readings generally for the mid 20s to lower 30s.

The next short wave trough embedded in the flow is now moving
through southern alberta. It should advance to the east and across
the dakotas by Thursday morning. A cold front associated with the
trough will move into the northwest CWA early Thursday afternoon and
spread east to eastern mn by 00z Friday. Clouds will thicken and
lower and will bring at least a small chance of light rain along the
far northern CWA later Thursday afternoon. Highs Thursday afternoon
will be dependent on overall clouds cover with readings topping 50
again possible to the southwest before the front moves through.

Readings in the 40s will be common elsewhere.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 241 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
biggest concern in the long term is a light snow event expected to
impact southwest and south central mn Friday afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, the period looks to be mainly dry with a bit of a roller
coaster for temperatures.

Thursday and Friday evenings will both feature fropas. The first
will bring back more of a continental polar airmass, while Fridays
front will signal the return of air originating from the arctic. One
change we have seen with the 14.12 models is the Thursday front has
a bit more moisture to work with, with most models showing some
light precip working in behind the front across central mn into
western wi. Precip looks very light, but there are indications in
the forecast soundings of there being potential for mainly
supercooled clouds. However, the supercooled cloud layers look
relatively shallow and occur within a cold advective regime, neither
of which is overly supportive of developing drizzle, so kept a
freezing rain drizzle mention out of the forecast for Thursday
evening, but this will have to be monitored.

Friday, the arctic front will come through during the day. A cross
section behind the front Friday afternoon evening shows a rather
deep sloped frontal boundary coming through between about h85 and
h5. Though there are differences in QPF amounts and placement in the
models, everything shows precip impacting west central southwest
into south central mn between 18z Friday and 6z Saturday. Placement
for the core of the band in the 14.12 guidance was spread between
the mn river on the north end (nam) to a sioux falls to ames line on
the south end (canadian ecmwf). A small enough spread where we felt
confident enough to boost blended pops up to the categorical level
for southwest south central mn. Beside qpf, snow amounts will also
be dependent on p-types. This region looks to be in the mid upper
30s at precip onset, though it should cool quickly with the start of
precip, with only a brief period of rain or a rain snow mix expected
before changing to all snow. Current forecast has a strip of 2-3" of
snow from about canby down to st. James. This is a pretty quick
hitter, so even if this over achieves, we're only talking 4" type
totals.

Biggest change we've seen beyond Friday is the eastern trough is
expected to be a bit stronger and more sluggish to leave. There are
two implications here. One, it will be a slower warmup from our
coldest day on Saturday, with highs remaining cooler than normal
through Tuesday. In addition, we will be in the preferred clipper
zone in the northwest flow Monday into Tuesday and we are starting
to see some indications of another light snow event being possible
Monday afternoon night. By Wednesday and thanksgiving, the eastern
ridge will move off far enough east to allow for an upper ridge to
build into the plains, resulting in a couple of days similar to what
we are seeing today and Thursday. Also for the end of the week, the
ecmwf has started trending more toward the GFS canadian with a
weaker trough coming out of the southwest, keeping our area mostly
dry as our split flow regime continues.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 538 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
vfr conditions tonight with lowering CIGS late Thursday afternoon.

Snow showers are possible Thursday evening along with MVFR
cigs visibilities. Winds south tonight, gradually veering
northwest by the end of the period.

Kmsp... No additional concerns.

Outlook for kmsp
fri... MVFR CIGS early. Chc -sn. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

Sat... MVFR possible. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

Sun...VFR. Winds SW 10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Dwe
long term... Mpg
aviation... Borghoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI16 mi54 minS 610.00 miFair36°F15°F44%1023 hPa

Wind History from RGK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3E3E4SE7SE9SE6SE5S6S9S11
G16
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1 day agoNW3NW4NW7NW4NW3NW4W4NW3N3CalmW4W5NW4CalmNW5NW8W5NW3W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW7NW6NW3NW8NW4NW7NW3NW8NW7NW6NW9NW11NW9NW10
G15
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NW6NW6NW5NW5N5N6NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.