Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake City, MN

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Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:08PM Monday August 20, 2018 10:01 AM CDT (15:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 12:08AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City, MN
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location: 44.46, -92.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 201154
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
654 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018

Updated for 12z aviation discussion
Issued at 644 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 420 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the region
today. The main threat is localized heavy rain. For example, radar
estimates up near mille lacs showed 5 to 6 inches on both the dual-
pol and mrms precip maps, but this was only over a few square miles.

At this point, it appears the heaviest rain should fall along and
south of i-90. There is nearly zero chance of severe storms. The
clouds and rain will keep temperatures on the cooler side for today.

Early morning water vapor and radar imagery showed a compact
upper level low across southwest iowa, with widespread rain
covering much of the state. Over the next 24 hours, the forcing
associated with this wave will lift northeast and bring rain
across southeast minnesota and western wisconsin. Meanwhile,
another area of showers and thunderstorms from southwest mn to
northeast mn should gradually weaken this morning as the forcing
subsides. Hires models are in good agreement with this solution,
but still develop convection along the boundary throughout the
day, so did not go dry but did try to emphasize the better
rainfall potential across the south.

As mentioned earlier, the main threat with todays storms is
localized heavy rain. Storms will be very slow-moving, so a quick 2
to 3 inches is certainly possible under a few of the stronger cells.

There is not enough CAPE or shear to support a realistic threat for
severe weather today which is why SPC only had general thunder
chances across the upper midwest.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 420 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
high pressure builds into the upper midwest Tuesday, with northerly
winds keeping highs in the mid-70s under clearing skies. Dry
weather continues into Thursday as high pressure remains over the
region with northwest flow aloft keeping temperatures a few
degrees below normal. Northwest flow aloft may usher in the return
of smoke and hazy skies from western canadian wildfires, but the
impact of this smoke on air quality on the ground is still
unknown. Models remain in good agreement with brining a shortwave
into the upper midwest Thursday night into Friday. Current timing
would bring the best forcing into our area overnight into Thursday
into Friday morning when instability is at its lowest so not
expecting strong severe weather with this system. With the broad-
scale forcing aloft from the shortwave and pw values up around 1.5
inches models are depicting the potential for a widespread
soaking rain of 0.5-1 inches across minnesota and wisconsin, which
would help areas continue catch up on the rainfall deficit in
august so far.

Heading into the weekend, 500 mb ridging begins to build over the
lower mississippi valley allowing heat and humidity to build. A
stationary front sets up somewhere over minnesota wisconsin
Saturday afternoon through Monday providing a focus for the next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is low in the
location of this front so have kept low precipitation chances for
now. South of this boundary temperatures will warm well-above
normal as the ridging aloft builds, with highs likely reaching the
upper 80s and even a few 90s into early next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 644 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018
today will be cloudy with scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm to the south and east. The lowest clouds will be at
kaxn, krwf, and kmkt. Winds will be northeast today, but then
should become northwesterly later tonight as drier air slowly
moves across the region.

Kmsp...

msp should have a few showers nearby this morning, but expect a
better chance of showers and even some thunderstorms later this
afternoon. These storms could have lower visbys with heavy rain,
but winds should be light. Could see MVFR clouds develop later
tonight.

Outlook for kmsp
wed...VFR. Wind W at 5 kts.

Thu...VFR with -tsra possible overnight. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

Fri... MVFR possible early. ThenVFR. Wind SE at 10g20 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Jrb
long term... Eta
aviation... Jrb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI16 mi66 minENE 410.00 miFair70°F64°F83%1012.9 hPa

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Last 24hrE3SE4N4SE7SE8E10SE7SE8S4E4E4E4E4CalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmE3CalmNE5CalmNE4
1 day agoSE3SE5S4SW5SE7S5SE6SE5SE6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE3Calm
2 days agoW3CalmN5NW3N5N7N6N4N6N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.