Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake City, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:40PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 11:46 PM CDT (04:46 UTC) Moonrise 11:23PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake City, MN
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location: 44.46, -92.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 230441 cca
afdmpx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1123 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019

Short term (this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 344 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
surface analysis this afternoon shows the center of low pressure
in west central mn with an occlusion extending eastward into
northwest wi, curling back southwest into the central plains to
another low pressure center over the four corners region. In
addition, a trailing surface trough from the mn low extends
westward along the nd sd border. Aloft, broad longwave troughing
persists over the western CONUS with ridging (and a large bermuda
high) over the eastern conus, placing the upper mississippi river
valley within progressive southwest flow.

The surface low will steadily shift northeast through tonight,
taking up a spot over lake superior by daybreak Thursday while the
trailing surface trough is draped over central mn. The trough will
lift north during the day tomorrow, allowing high pressure to
briefly control the weather for the rest of the day. In sensible
wx terms, while the rain over the area today will push off to the
north this evening, clouds will remain in place tonight through
the first half of tomorrow. As the trough lifts out and high
pressure moves in, skies will partially clear out tomorrow
afternoon. However, the influence of the high pressure will be
short-lived as the progressive upper level flow will allow the
aforementioned southwest CONUS low to shift into the northern
plains tomorrow night into Friday morning. This will bring a
return of more widespread rainfall from southwestern mn Thursday
evening then into the rest of the WFO mpx coverage area overnight
Thursday into Friday. Rainfall amounts of one quarter to one half
inch can be expected Thursday night along with the potential of a
few garden-variety thunderstorms overnight through Friday morning.

Very little change in temperature is expected despite the passage
of these multiple surface features. Lows tonight and tomorrow
night will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s while highs
tomorrow will be similar to what was recorded today, in the mid
50s to mid 60s.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 344 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
Friday through Sunday... Widespread rain with scattered embedded
thunderstorms will start the day Friday as low pressure shifts
from eastern sd into northern mn on its way into western ontario
Friday through Saturday. No severe weather is expected but
rainfall amounts will likely range from one quarter to one half
inch for much of the coverage area, and possibly close to one inch
for the wi portion of the coverage area. The precipitation then
ends gradually during the day Friday into Friday evening as weak
high pressure then will become anchored in the region Friday night
through Sunday night. This will produce a mix of Sun and clouds
through the Saturday-Sunday portion of the memorial day weekend
with highs reaching the lower-middle 70s across the area.

Memorial day through Wednesday... The pattern begins to change a
bit starting on memorial day and continuing through the middle of
next week. While the western CONUS trough remains in place, the
central CONUS pattern again resumes a more progressive
southwesterly pattern instead of the flatter zonal pattern which
will have allowed for the dry weekend. Another southwestern conus
low pressure system will slowly eject northeast from the four
corners region through the central plains and into the great lakes
Monday-Wednesday. This will bring a return of a wetter pattern
with scattered showers thunderstorms during the first half of the
week. In addition, temperatures will return to below-normal levels
with highs only in the mid 60s and lows close to 50.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1123 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019
weakening low pressure center is moving into north central mn.

Winds to the south of the low are still managing to gust over 20
knots at times, but this is slowly coming down. A few showers in
central mn will also lift northeastward with the low.

Main concern will be the MVFR ifr ceilings. As low moves
northeast, low clouds are heading south and east in the wake of
the low. Abundance of short term guidance does bring MVFR ceilings
to most of our area overnight, with ifr in central and west
central mn. This makes sense and low clouds should begin to
improve in southern mn and western wi during the midday hours.

Central mn may well remain MVFR through the afternoon. Confidence
is average to slightly above average.

Kmsp... Southwest winds gusting up to 20 knots should gradually
transition to 270 degrees by 11z, but am a little worried it may
take a bit longer. Direction of 290 or 300 degrees is not
anticipated until around 15z. Otherwise, airfield will likely be in
and out of MVFR ceilings around 2500 feet agl through around 10z
before settling down and staying MVFR for much of the morning. This
timing, however, is uncertain. Also, there still could be a brief
shower before 12z.

Outlook for kmsp
fri... Shra MVFR likely, mainly in the morning. Winds se
10-15g25kt becoming sw.

Sat...VFR. Wind W 10 kts.

Sun...VFR. Wind W 5 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Jpc
long term... Jpc
aviation... Tdk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Red Wing - Red Wing Regional Airport, WI16 mi52 minWSW 10 G 1510.00 miOvercast59°F35°F42%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from RGK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE15
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1 day agoCalmCalmE4E3SE4E5E4E5E4SE10E11
G19
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G34
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2 days agoN5N4NW3NW6NW5NW3NW3W6NW4N3N10CalmN8N8NE7N5CalmNE7S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.