Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dennison, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:40PM Monday May 20, 2019 3:39 PM CDT (20:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:41PMMoonset 6:08AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dennison, MN
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.46, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmpx 202020
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
320 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019

Short term (this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 318 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019
main weather concern during the short term is tracking wind and
precip trends with the storm system coming up out of the southern
plains tonight. The ECMWF gfs canadian are all similar with bringing
a roughly 995 mb low up through the eastern dakotas Tuesday night.

Forcing with this wave is impressive, with strong PV advection and
lift within the left exit region of a 120 kt jet to our south. To
the north of the low, we'll see some impressive east winds develop,
with 60 kt easterly h85 jet working across southern mn, so there
will be potential for some stronger winds. We went ahead with a
wind advisory for our typical windy areas from west central through
south central mn, where gusts to 50 mph look possible. Depending on
how efficiently we mix, we could need to add another row or two of
counties on to the east side of the advisory as well.

The bigger issue with these east winds is that they will be
advecting in quite a bit of dry air from the east, so biggest change
made in this forecast was to slow down the northward progression of
pops on Tuesday, though it could end up even slower if things end up
timing more in line with the hrrr. There's virtually no convective
instability noted with this band of forcing coming up so have just
showers mentioned. This lack of upright convection is what should
help keep precip amounts from getting out of hand, with a widespread
0.5" to 1" of rain expected, with the highest amounts expected over
southwest mn.

Going into Tuesday night, the dry slot looks to move overhead, which
should cut off precip for much of the area from south to north
during the night. Precip chances through the night look best out in
western mn, closer to the track of the upper low.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 318 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019
no big changes are expected in the long term to the large scale
pattern through memorial day, with the southeast being dominated by
a ridge and a trough to our west. This pattern will continue
kicking out strong storm systems across the plains, with the next
one after today's coming Thursday Friday, with the next one after
that due in for memorial day. There are still plenty of fine scale
details with each of these systems, so stuck with the blended
forecast through the period.

Wednesday, with the upper low moving across the northern plains,
we'll have cool temps aloft, which should promote the development of
diurnally driven showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two. Based on
placement of the h5 thermal trough, the best chance for showers
Wednesday afternoon will angle from the black hills northeast toward
lake superior.

Thursday, we dry out, but the next storm system and potential severe
weather event will be unfolding across the central plains. This
storm system comes up here Thursday night into Friday morning.

Again, this looks to be a primarily WAA driven precip event, with
the main difference from what we will see Tuesday night is that
Thursday night Friday we'll have some elevated instability and the
possibility for thunderstorms this time around.

For the holiday weekend, we look to clear out Friday afternoon and
look to have very pleasant weather Saturday and Sunday, Monday, not
so much. This will be our next large weather system to impact the
area. There's still lots of uncertainty with how far north the warm
sector gets, but at the very least, we look to end the holiday
weekend on a stormy note and if the warm sector were to get up here,
it would come with a side of severe weather as well.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1259 pm cdt Mon may 20 2019
easterly winds will be on the increase through the period as a
powerful storm system comes out of the southern plains. These
easterly winds will also be transporting dry low level air in,
which will keep our clouds to the mid levels this period, with
rain staying away as well.

Kmsp... With the high overhead, our wind directions today will be
driven purely by mixing, so they will be erratic, though
averaging out of the northeast in general.

Outlook for kmsp
wed... MVFR thru mrng.VFR with chc MVFR -shra in aftn. Wind se
bcmg SW at 10-15g25 kts.

Thu... MVFR cigs. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

Fri... Chc MVFR. Winds SW 15g30 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... Wind advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to 1 am cdt Wednesday for mnz041-
047>049-054>057-064.

Wind advisory from 2 pm to 10 pm cdt Tuesday for mnz058-065>067-
073>076-082>085-091>093.

Short term... Mpg
long term... Mpg
aviation... Mpg


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stanton Airfield, MN1 mi1.7 hrsNNE 810.00 miFair57°F39°F51%1020 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN18 mi64 minE 610.00 miFair61°F37°F42%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from SYN (wind in knots)
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last 24hrN18
G24
N12
G22
N14
G21
N15
G20
N18
G22
N14
G24
N13N12N9N5CalmN6CalmW3SW3W4N8N8N7N6N6NE8
G15
NE8N7
1 day agoNE11E19
G22
NE19
G22
NE14NE14
G20
E15
G19
E14
G20
E12E12NE15
G18
NE12
G16
NE12NE13
G20
NE12NE13
G17
NE11NE13N9N16N14
G20
N13
G20
N18
G25
N21
G24
N18
G25
2 days agoSE9E10
G15
S9SE10E12
G15
SE7
G15
SE6SE8
G17
E14E15E10
G14
E14
G18
SE10
G16
E12
G17
E13
G23
E8
G14
E14E13E16
G21
E10E12E10NE12NE13

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (16,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.