Friday, May24, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Stowe, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:24PM Friday May 24, 2019 5:00 AM EDT (09:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:44AMMoonset 10:13AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stowe, VT
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location: 44.47, -72.68     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 240703
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
303 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Low pressure will exit eastward into the gulf of maine this morning,
allowing for gusty north winds and lingering, abundant low
cloudiness. The overcast will limit high temperatures to the low to
mid 60s in most locations. Also, a few showers or sprinkles will
remain possible, mainly across the northern mountains. Clearing
skies will develop this evening, along with diminishing winds as
high pressure builds in from the eastern great lakes region. The
tranquil weather will only last through the first half of Saturday.

Thereafter, a warm front pushing in from southwest new york will
allow widespread showers to develop across the region from west to
east late in the afternoon or evening, into Saturday night. Briefly
drier conditions are expected Sunday morning, followed by the
redevelopment of scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
during Sunday afternoon.

Near term through Saturday
As of 217 am edt Friday... Surface low pressure (1000mb) and
attendant vigorous mid-level vort centered near sherbrooke, que.

At 06z will translate esewd across maine and offshore through
the remainder of this morning. This will set up a moderate n-nw
low-level gradient flow across the north country, with winds
10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph for a time late this morning into
the early afternoon hours. May even see a few gusts closer to
30 mph in the ct river valley around midday. With low-level caa,
900-850mb layer will help to trap some low cloudiness, which
should linger much of the day per 00z NAM model soundings.

Breaks in the overcast will first appear east of the adirondacks
and greens in downslope areas, followed by a gradual clearing
later in the afternoon or toward evening for the remainder of
the north country. Some light rain showers are also possible
early this morning, gradually becoming confined to far NRN nern
vt with orographic effects allowing for some continued sprinkles
through 16z or so. Have shown pre-dawn pops 30-50 percent near
the international border, but trending below 15 percent by noon
or so. The stratus and north winds will result in daytime highs
holding in the low-mid 60s in most locations.

Skies should clear quite rapidly this evening setting up quiet
conditions tonight as high pressure moves in from the ERN great
lakes. With winds becoming light and variable, temperatures will
fall into the mid-upper 40s for overnight lows, except closer
to 40f for lows at kslk and across vermont's northeast kingdom.

Sheltered locations may reach crossover temps, and added in some
patchy fog for the climo favored spots tonight. Pops nil.

Saturday begins dry, but surging 850-700mb warm frontal zone brings
increasing afternoon cloud cover and developing rain showers.

Showers should develop first across NRN ny (17-20z) and then across
vt (20-23z), with pops reaching 60-80% by 22z from the champlain
valley wwd. Also, appears some weak elevated instability makes it
into NRN ny on wswly 50-55kt 850mb jet. Thus, added a slight chance
of a thunderstorm across franklin ny and st. Lawrence counties late
in the afternoon where a few embedded convective elements are
possible. Rainfall through 00z Sunday should range from <0.10" east
of the green mtns, to 0.10-0.20" across the champlain valley and
adirondacks, and slightly higher across st. Lawrence county where
rainfall arrives soonest. Highs Saturday mainly lower 70s across
vermont, but upper 60s to lower 70s across ny with earlier arrival
of clouds precipitation.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday
As of 301 am edt Friday... A line of showers will move through
the area from west to east early Saturday night, driven by
subtle height falls aloft and a low-level moisture boundary
moving through. The heaviest rainfall will be in the early
overnight hours, when pwats will briefly surge to 1.4 to 1.6"
ahead of the boundary. There will be some elevated instability
during the early overnight hours, so have included a slight
chance of thunder for much of northern ny and into southern vt
through around midnight. Shortly after midnight, rain showers
will diminish with the loss of instability and moisture, and the
area should be mainly dry by sunrise. Overnight lows will range
from the low 50s in eastern vermont to the mid and upper 50s
from the champlain valley west.

Sunday morning will start off cloudy but dry. By late morning,
some breaks in the clouds will develop, allowing for increasing
instability to build as the area remains within the warm sector
of a canadian low pressure system. Temperatures will rise into
the mid to upper 70s by early to mid Sunday afternoon before a
frontal boundary moves through. Some convective showers will
develop during the afternoon as the front moves through. Cape
values progged to rise to over 500 j kg ahead of the boundary
supports the potential for some embedded thunderstorms to
develop within the convective showers, although this will depend
on how much the atmosphere can really destabilize after the
Saturday night early Sunday morning system moves through.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 301 am edt Friday... Long term forecast will be driven by
strong high pressure centered over the gulf of
mexico southeastern us and troughing further west over the
rockies and into the central plains. This pattern puts the btv
forecast area within an active storm track as multiple systems
lift out of the plains and travel up and over the ridge top into
new england. These systems are by nature fast moving and
notoriously difficult to time this far out. Currently, it
appears Monday will be dry as a brief ridge of high pressure
builds in, but precipitation chances return Tuesday through
Thursday as a series of low pressure systems and associated
fronts lift through the area. Temperatures during the mid-week
time frame could get quite warm as the pattern will support
strong warm air moisture advection into the area. A few days
approaching exceeding 80 degrees in valley locations doesn't
look out of the question for the middle of next week.

Aviation 07z Friday through Tuesday
Through 12z Saturday... Surface low pressure near sherbrooke,
quebec will be exiting into the gulf of maine later this
morning. As this occurs, will see winds shift from west to
n-nw across the north country TAF sites, generally 10-15kt with
a few gusts approaching 20kt during the mid-morning through
early afternoon hours when gradient flow will be strongest. The
low-level northerly flow will be relatively moist, and most taf
locations will see MVFR ceilings throughout the morning hours
with hir trrn obscd. A few showers are also possible through 14z,
mainly in the northern mountains. Ceilings will gradually
improve back toVFR with binovc this afternoon, followed by more
significant clearing skies toward just after sunset and through
the overnight period. Likewise, winds will become light and
variable after 00z Saturday with high pressure building into
ny new england from the great lakes region tonight.


Saturday:VFR. Chance shra.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Definite

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra, chance

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance

Memorial day:VFR. No sig wx.

Monday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Winds will shift into the north before dawn, reaching 15 to 25
knots across lake champlain through most of the daylight hours
before diminishing rapidly this evening.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos
short term... Rsd
long term... Rsd
aviation... Banacos
marine... WFO btv

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT6 mi67 minNW 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast60°F52°F75%1003.4 hPa
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT19 mi70 minWNW 810.00 miLight Rain57°F52°F83%1004.5 hPa

Wind History from MVL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS5CalmCalmSE543SW8CalmSW5SW33S8SW6SW3S6SW3CalmSW6W3SW6SW6SW85NW12
1 day agoCalm34N7N8N8NW10
2 days agoW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.