Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arcadia, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:52PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 1:11 AM CST (07:11 UTC) Moonrise 12:07PMMoonset 12:32AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1008 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Tuesday...
Overnight..Northeast wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West wind up to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 6 to 9 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5. This is the last issuance of the nearshore marine forecast for the season. This product will resume seven days prior to the opening of the soo locks, scheduled for march 25 2018, or sooner if warmer temperatures would cause ice to dissipate.
LMZ346 Expires:201801161000;;512213 FZUS53 KAPX 160309 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1009 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ345-346-161000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arcadia, MI
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location: 44.48, -86.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240454
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1154 pm est Tue jan 23 2018

Update
Issued at 1023 pm est Tue jan 23 2018
plenty of shallow lake effect clouds continue across the region
within a slowly veering low level wind field. Limited cloud depth
resulting in not much more than flurries. Dry air will spill
southwest out of canada, likely scattering out the clouds from
across eastern upper and interior sections of northern lower
through the early morning hours, with plenty of low clouds and
flurries remaining closer to the big waters. Where skies clear,
expect temperature to tank nicely, with readings dipping a few
degrees below zero near sault ste marie, and single digits
elsewhere. Modification will keep those areas near lake michigan
several degrees "warmer".

Near term (tonight through Wednesday)
issued at 240 pm est Tue jan 23 2018

Definitely colder...

high impact weather potential... Very low.

Primary forecast concerns... Details of likely north northwest
flow lake effect tonight.

The system precipitation has now exited out of the area. Attention
now turns to the cold air and likely lake effect snow tonight. It
will definitely feel a lot colder tonight with lows ranging from
the single digits below zero near the soo to the single digits
above zero near gt bay. In addition, the colder air is expected to
be just deep enough to trigger snow showers off of the big lakes.

However, moisture is at the point of anemic with 850-700 mb rh
only in the 30 to 40 percent range. So even though north northwest
flow lake effect is expected accumulations should be rather light
(on the order of less than a half inch). Remaining on the chilly
side Wednesday with a strong area of high pressure building down
from the north. This will lead to partly cloudy skies and highs
ranging from the middle teens north to the middle 20s south. Can't
totally rule out a few lake effect snow showers near lake michigan
but wind fields are light enough that they shouldn't be able to
move very far inland.

Short term (Wednesday night through Friday)
issued at 240 pm est Tue jan 23 2018

Quiet period of moderating temperatures...

high impact weather potential... Minimal
pattern synopsis forecast... High pressure is moving east Wednesday
night with a warm front trying to lift moisture in the upper great
lakes, behind the high. Some model disagreement overnight and
Thursday with whether snow will will form with the front, and added
lake enhancement. Otherwise, Thursday night and Friday, high
pressure builds back into the region and temperatures moderate
before the next cold front moves into the region Friday evening.

Primary forecast concerns... As stated above, there is disagreement
in the models about snow Wednesday night. NAM gfs ECMWF all say that
the warm front is dry with a slack pressure gradient over the
baroclinic zone, so minimal lift. The hires arw and nmm along with
the SREF say that something forms over lake michigan and moves
onshore. Looking at the actual members of the sref, think that the
operational hires models are the outliers. So, will leave the qpf
dry and the pops at slight chance. However, the further into time we
go, will taper things off and go dry for the rest of the time
through Friday.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 240 pm est Tue jan 23 2018
it appears this january see-saw will continue in the extended
period... As another brief warm up on Friday transitions back to a
temporary return to more typical winter readings for the Sunday
through Tuesday period. The upper level pattern shows weak ridging
giving way to broad and transient troughing over the central and
then eastern CONUS Sunday through Tuesday. This will allow for
some of that colder canadian air to spill down over the region.

Closer to the surface, the storm track appears to be displaced to
the north... With a couple surface lows passing by during the period
and dragging some moisture up into the lakes region from the south.

Guidance differs on the timing of these systems and just how far
north they can draw moisture. If the precip can make it as far
north as our CWA on Saturday... Temperatures should still be warm
enough that we could be seeing rain snow mix. To be frank... The
whole pattern just looks messy and disorganized. The other wild
card will be that there should be plenty over lake instability for
some lake contributions... But whether we can lock into any favorable
wind regime for any appreciable snowfall is unclear. So while
there will be periodic pops through the extended... Confidence on
timing and impact are extremely low.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1153 pm est Tue jan 23 2018
MVFR producing lake induced cloud cover will continue to impact
the TAF locations through early this morning. CIGS should slowly
scatter out lift from north to south, but may take much of the
period to do so at kapn and kmbl. Light winds and no vis
restrictions expected.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Update... mb
near term... As
short term... Jl
long term... Kb
aviation... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 17 mi32 min NNW 19 G 22 25°F 1020.7 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 33 mi32 min NNW 16 G 20 24°F 1020.7 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 38 mi42 min NNW 6 G 12 24°F 13°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI10 mi17 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast25°F17°F73%1020 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI14 mi16 minNW 910.00 miOvercast23°F18°F81%1022 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN8N9
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1 day agoCalmNE4E6NE5NE6E7E8E6
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E7E6SE4SE6E7E3SE3NE3CalmCalmNE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5S5SE4CalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE6E6NE5NE4E4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.