Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arcadia, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:49PM Thursday September 21, 2017 3:31 AM CDT (08:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:52AMMoonset 7:48PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ346 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 359 Am Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Today..Light winds. Patchy fog early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:201709211600;;702554 FZUS53 KAPX 210759 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 359 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ345-346-211600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arcadia, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.48, -86.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 210741
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
341 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Unseasonably warm and humid...

high impact weather potential... Few strong t-storms possible this
afternoon early evening northern lower mi.

Incoming cold front pushing east of mqt-esc-grb. Broken line of
showers t-storms just ahead of the front is impacting portions of
northern mi. The front will lay over across central lower mi by
late today, while a trailing bubble high transits the lk superior
james bay areas. Return flow will start to get going again tonight
as the high move into quebec, though this return flow will be much
stronger to our west. Precip trends and temps are the main concerns.

Ongoing precip is thinning out (and has been struggling for much of
the event) south of m-32. A band of stronger storms still exists
from just east of drummond isl to presque isle co. Expect
northern activity to exit to the ne, with lingering showers to the
south continuing to dissipate. Cams favor current convection
fading out by 12-13z, as instability fades and forcing lifts out
into canada.

That will leave us with a warm and humid airmass, but a healthy
amount of cloud cover early on. Clouds will thin with time, with a
mostly cloudy morning giving way to a partly sunny and hazy
afternoon. Temps will climb quickly in this warm airmass, and temps
look to reach in the mid upper 70s in the straits area and points
north, and 80s elsewhere. Gladwin the most likely spot to take a
run at the upper 80s. (these values are generally a few degrees
short of record highs.)
dew points in the upper 60s to around 70f (!) will support mlcape
values a bit in the 1-1.5k j kg range. Warm temps aloft (15c at
circa 825 mb) will provide a weak cap, but lake breezes may have
enough forcing to get thru that. After pops dwindle early this
morning, will return a broad area of northern lower mi to chance
pops this afternoon, with a slight chance for redevelopment in
eastern upper. 0-6km bulk shear is anemic (10kt or less), but we
have enough instability moisture for some strongish wet
microbursts.

Any diurnal convection here will diminish this evening. However,
with some return flow getting going overnight, the instability plume
will make northward progress tonight even as it wanes. This will be
especially notable in western central upper mi, where return flow is
stronger. Still, pulses of deep convection could generate there
tonight, and propagate eastward into our northern sections. Chance
pops returns to far northern lower and eastern upper mi, mainly
overnight. Elsewhere, threat for some fog returns. Min temps mid 60s
to around 70f.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Dry for the weekend...

high impact weather potential... None
pattern synopsis forecast... There could be some showers left over
from the night, but for the most part the 500 mb ridge begins to
amplify and the 850 mb and 700 mb levels warm. This caps the region,
to a certain extent, and with the lack of a kicker(front or jet) the
think that the limited pops in E upper in the morning and dry
through the afternoon looks good. The ridge continues to amp up, and
continues the dry weather through Sunday morning.

Primary forecast concerns... If we could get any kind of kicker to
start precipitation, the MLCAPE is over 1500 j kg. However, looking
at the ml parcels on the skew-t, there is some weak capping so don't
think that anything gets going.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Dry early in the week then rain to move in by mid week...

extended (Sunday through Wednesday)... Sunday through Tuesday
morning, the 500 mb ridge continues to keep the region dry. Tuesday
afternoon, the ridge finally breaks down and the cold front begins
to move into the forecast area. There could be some thunder, but at
this point, thinking it is unlikely as we are pretty well capped as
the front moves through the region. Wednesday, there is a timing
difference in the GFS and the ECMWF 500 mb lows are placed
differently upstream. The ECMWF idea brings in le rain showers on
Wednesday and brisk temperatures, while the GFS is slower with the
main trough at 500 mb having yet to rotate into the region (not
until Thursday). So think that there will be some showers around,
but no confidence in this forecast for days 6 and 7.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday evening)
issued at 1056 pm edt Wed sep 20 2017
a cold front will cross northern michigan overnight into early
Thursday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
accompany the front, along with the potential for patchy fog and
a period of MVFR ifr cigs. CIGS are expected to gradually rise
back toVFR during the day Thursday, although there remains a
threat for a few scattered showers storms coinciding with diurnal
heating.

Marine
Issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017
decaying cold front will slow and stall as it crosses northern
lake mi and reaches central lower mi by early tonight. Surface
winds will be relatively light while the front is in the vicinity.

Southerly winds will ramp up into Friday and Friday night, and
some choppy conditions will develop on lake mi, especially toward
the far north end of the lake. Advisory-level waves are a
possibility.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jz
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Mg
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 17 mi52 min E 6 G 13 71°F 1011.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 33 mi52 min SE 4.1 G 16 70°F 1013.5 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 38 mi44 min SE 6 G 8 72°F 63°F
45024 39 mi42 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 67°F3 ft1013.8 hPa66°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last
24hr
E3
E2
E3
E4
SE6
SE6
G10
SE7
G11
SE7
G12
S7
G10
SW2
G7
S6
G12
S7
G14
SW2
G8
SW6
S6
G11
S6
G9
SE4
E4
SE4
S8
G13
SW7
G14
SW3
G11
SE4
SE3
G6
1 day
ago
NE4
E6
E6
G9
E7
G10
E8
E9
E6
G10
E8
G11
E5
SE6
G10
SE4
G8
W6
G9
N5
G8
NW4
G7
N3
NE2
E2
E3
E4
E2
E3
E6
G9
SE3
G6
SE5
G8
2 days
ago
N4
G7
NE3
G8
NE3
G6
NE3
G6
E4
E7
E6
G10
E4
G8
SE2
G6
E7
G10
E4
G9
N5
G9
N6
G10
N6
G10
N5
G8
NE2
E2
E4
E3
E3
E6
E5
G8
E6
E6
G9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI10 mi57 minE 410.00 miFair71°F68°F93%1012.9 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI14 mi36 minW 16 G 1910.00 miFair71°F64°F81%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE8SE9
G14
SE7S8S10S11S10
G14
S10SE10
G15
SE6CalmCalmCalmSE7SE10
G16
SW4S9
G15
CalmSE3
1 day agoCalmE3E4E7E6E5E5SE7E4CalmCalmN6NW4N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E4NW4CalmN5N5N7N6N6N4CalmE3CalmSE3S3E6E5E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.