Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arcadia, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:18PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 11:38 PM CDT (04:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:58PMMoonset 8:16AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Expires:201905231030;;305466 Fzus53 Kapx 230218 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 1018 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz345-346-231030- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1018 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Overnight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight, then chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arcadia, MI
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location: 44.48, -86.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 230346
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1146 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Update
Issued at 938 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
initial convection moving into western chip mack cos, with some
embedded strong-ish cores. (strongest of the convective season
thus far, anyways). These are well north of the warm front, and a
cool stable bl will retard winds getting to the surface, but some
small hail is a possibility (and in line with upstream reports of
some peas). Additional development will occur further south with
time, as a shortwave and associated heights falls race eastward
from the upper ms valley. Most places will get wet tonight, though
perhaps not quite all.

Have been fiddling with the hourly details of precip onset and
coverage, and that fiddling will continue. Though the hi-res
near-term guidance is doing ok, it is not wet enough in the very
near term in eastern upper mi. Reasonably high pops do eventually
progress into and across northern lower mi.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 311 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

More showers and possibly a thunderstorm...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

Primary forecast concerns... Pops.

A fairly deep but slowly weakening area of low pressure is centered
across west central minnesota. Another spoke of forcing (div-q)
moving out out of this system in combination with an approaching
weak cold front is expected to bring another round of showers
tonight. There could even be a rumble or two of thunder with a few
hundred j kg of mixed layer CAPE and precipitable waters of 1.50
inches or so. Gusty southeast winds will slowly diminish. It will be
kind of muggy with lows only in the middle 50s across northern lower
and the cooler middle and upper 40s across eastern upper.

Short term (Thursday through Saturday)
issued at 311 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal. Still looking at the
potential for a few non-severe thunderstorms by later Friday.

Pattern synopsis: somewhat active pattern to close out this work
week as the western trough remains locked and loaded, sending
additional energy across the great lakes by later Friday. Still
dealing with the lead wave (the one responsible for today's
showers), expected to cut across the northern lakes on Thursday.

Both of these systems will be responsible for additional shower
chances, although that late Friday system definitely looks to be the
wetter of the two.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperature cloud trends and
addressing that earlier mentioned shower potential (as well as the
potential for a few rumbles of thunder to accompany those showers by
later Friday).

Details: mid level wave and its attendant surface low cut across
southern ontario northern lake superior Thursday morning. Attached
occluded front clears our area quickly just after sunrise. This
front is expected to fire off a band of showers along it tonight,
with these showers exiting stage right quickly during the morning.

Arrival of mid level wave cooler temperature aloft and hints of the
all-to-familiar eastern upper surface convergence axis within
favorable background west wind field suggests the potential for a
few more showers to develop up that way through the day. Some of
this activity may sneak down into the tip of the mitt counties of
northern lower as we head through the second half of the afternoon.

Otherwise, much of the area and most of the time looks to remain dry
Thursday. Conditions trend dry Thursday night as high pressure
temporarily builds into the region.

Energetic pattern out west continues, sending next wave up through
the northern plains and northern mississippi valley by later Friday.

Best mid level support no doubt passes to our west, but arrival of
attendant moisture plume and enhanced upper level support via intense
upper jet core suggests the potential for showers to spread across
the area Friday, with this shower threat continuing Friday night
through early Saturday as a cold front sweeps through the area.

Still some indication of the potential for a few embedded
thunderstorms by later Friday and Friday evening as plume of at
least a few hundred joules kg of elevated CAPE spreads north. Best
surface rooted instability looks to stay off to our south and
southwest, and thats where any severe weather threat looks to
remain. If current trends are realized, we are looking at dry
condtions by Saturday afternoon. Could be a rather warm Saturday,
all dependent on actual frontal timing and amount of showers clouds
during the morning.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 311 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pretty quiet, albeit a bit cooler, condtions expected to finish out
the remainder of the memorial day weekend. Plenty of uncertainty on
what happens thereafter, with at least some hints of the next
western wave arriving Tuesday into Wednesday. Guidance consensus
blend continues to advertise this potential, and see no reason to
deviate from this idea just yet.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1146 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
showers and a few tsra overnight. Llws overnight. MVFR to ifr cigs
possible overnight early Thursday.

Low pressure will move from central mn to northern lk superior by
morning. This will push a cold front into northern mi toward
daybreak. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to develop
ahead of the cold front. Brief vsby restrictions are possible
with this. CIGS will lower with and behind the cold front, and the
cold waters of lake mi will contribute some stratus as well.

Latest guidance suggests best chances for ifr will be at pln.

Improving conditions during the day Thursday. Lower CIGS could
push southward back into some TAF sites Thu night, for this
issuance will only bring MVFR CIGS to pln in the evening.

Ongoing S winds will become SW and gusty winds behind the cold
front Thursday. Llws ahead of the cold front overnight.

Marine
Issued at 311 pm edt Wed may 22 2019
stacked low pressure in minnesota with push a warm front into nrn
michigan this evening. Then, this low pressure and it's cold front
crosses later tonight and Thursday morning. High pressure settles
back in for Thursday night. The tight pressure gradient will
continue to lead to small craft advisory winds for most nearshore
zones through this evening. Another round of showers expected
tonight with a rumble or two of thunder also possible.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 5 am edt Thursday for miz088-096.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for lhz345>348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for lmz341-342.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for lsz321-322.

Update... Jz
near term... As
short term... mb
long term... mb
aviation... Jz
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 33 mi59 min S 18 G 25 54°F 1010.8 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 38 mi45 min S 8.9 G 14 69°F 57°F
45024 39 mi29 min S 14 G 18 50°F 42°F4 ft1012 hPa49°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI10 mi44 minS 15 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F52°F51%1010.2 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI14 mi43 minS 8 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds72°F57°F61%1009.9 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE7NE6NE5NE4NE6N9N10
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2 days agoW8W8
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N7NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.