Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arcadia, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:20PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 10:10 AM CDT (15:10 UTC) Moonrise 1:58PMMoonset 2:29AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ346 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1050 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Areas of fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Areas of fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:201805232300;;408211 FZUS53 KAPX 231450 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1050 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ345-346-232300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arcadia, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.48, -86.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 231423
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1023 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Update
Issued at 1023 am edt Wed may 23 2018
quiet weather continues. Morning composite analysis reveals fairly
sharp upper level ridge axis stretching up through the midwest
into south-central canada. Downstream expanse of high pressure
stretches from the hudson bay region south to the gulf coast,
along with a nice pocket of dry air across the great lakes and
ohio valley. Upper ridge axis will slowly build into the great
lakes over the next one to two days, maintaining this run of
quiet weather, along with warming temps increasing humidity as we
get on the backside of the surface high.

So, no big forecast issues. That said, we will have to keep an eye
on lake michigan marine stratus, just offshore from manistee to
leelanau counties and some of which is scraping the frankfort
area this morning. Potential is there for marine stratus fog to
spread inland tonight as overall low level synoptic flow turns
into the west. Will see how it goes.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 314 am edt Wed may 23 2018
impactful weather: areas of fog, some dense, mainly along the
coastlines.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper level ridging was stretched through the central plains early
this morning, with troughing across eastern canada down through the
mid atlantic. At the sfc, high pressure and a core of dry air was
over much of the great lakes region. With light winds and little to
no forcing anywhere around, skies were mostly clear and the weather
absolutely quiet. Temperatures have cooled into the 40s with some
lower 50s, and the clear calm conditions has resulted in areas of
fog, some of it dense in coastal and low lying areas.

Not much to talk about in the weather through tonight with the sfc
high pressure and dry air remaining over NRN michigan. This will
result in the continued mostly clear skies with just some passing
very thin cirrus. However, some late night fog in low lying areas is
once again expected in decent radiational cooling and light winds.

Also, dew points will slowly rise with time, reaching the lower 50s,
and likely resulting in more areas of fog out over the great lakes.

A slight W SW wind will more likely impact coastal areas around lake
michigan and through the straits. The upper ridging will slowly work
in over the region, resulting in a continued trend of warming
temperatures. Highs today will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s,
with cooler temperatures in coastal areas due to lake breezes coming
in off the lakes. Diurnal swings around 30f in another night of good
radiational cooling will result in lows in the middle 40s to lower
50s tonight. Coolest in low lying areas.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 314 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Shower & storm chances return Thursday night-Friday...

high impact weather potential: elevated fire danger possible;
otherwise, none.

Pattern forecast: upper level ridging is expected to become centered
atop the forecast area late Thursday Thursday night while an
expansive area of high pressure continues to drive northern
michigan's weather for the first half of the forecast period.

Changes arrive as early as late Thursday night through Friday as a
well-defined shortwave and attendant developing area of low pressure
gradually approaches the region from the west aiding to increase
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances at various times through
the upcoming weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops thunder chances Thursday
night through Friday.

Quiet weather is expected to continue Thursday as northern michigan
lies on the western periphery of an expansive area of high pressure
stretching from the midwest eastward through the mid-atlantic
northeast. Mostly sunny skies, light winds and temperatures climbing
well above normal will be the rule. Highs expected to MAX out some
10-20 degrees above late may normals... Ranging from the mid-upper
70s across eastern upper and the tip of the mitt to the low-mid 80s
along and south of m-32. Coolest readings likely to be found nearest
the lake shores as late afternoon temperatures gradually fall in
many great lakes collar counties as developing lake breezes push
inland.

Winds gradually transition to south-southwesterly throughout the day
Thursday aiding to increase moisture advection across western
sections of the forecast area as changes get underway as early as
late Thursday night early Friday. Approaching aforementioned
shortwave troughing and disorganized area of low pressure are set to
cross the area late Friday with leading scattered shower chances,
especially across far northern locales tied to the area of greater
forcing instability. See no reason to deviate from inherited chance
pops across eastern upper and the tip of the mitt after midnight
Thursday night through Friday mornign before slowly sagging further
south across far northwest lower by Friday afternoon (and beyond).

Despite the greatest instability centered well to our west, model
soundings suggest upwards of 100-350 j kg of MLCAPE gradually
pressing into far western and northern areas during the day Friday,
so wouldn't be surprised to see a few thunderstorms mixed in as
well. Friday's high temperatures expected to be very warm once
again... Ranging from the mid-70s across eastern upper to the low-
upper 80s (flirting with 90 in downsloping areas of northeast
lower?) across much of northern lower (cooler near the coasts once
again).

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 314 am edt Wed may 23 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Unsettled weather is expected to occasionally continue through the
upcoming holiday weekend as several mid level perturbations are
expected to race across the northern tier of the conus. Won't be a
total washout of a weekend, but periodic shower and thunderstorm
chances are expected Friday night through at least Sunday. High
temperatures expected to remain above normal... Generally ranging
from the mid 70s to low 80s through the weekend into the start of
next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 612 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Some fog issues, otherwiseVFR...

high pressure, relatively dry air and light winds will hold over the
taf period. This will result in mostly clear skies, but sfc dew
points will slowly rise and areas of fog will be a bit more common
at night. This will especially be true over the cold great lakes,
and will impact primarily mbl coastal areas. The light winds will
lead to lake breezes onshore flow this afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 314 am edt Wed may 23 2018
a weak pressure gradient in high pressure will hold over the region
through Thursday, resulting in little to no chances for any wind or
wave issues. The gradient does tighten later Thursday night into
Friday ahead of the next low pressure and chance for showers and
ultimately a chance for thunderstorms. Stable conditions over the
great lakes will likely prevent any advisory level winds, but the
greatest chance for advisory winds will be across the lake michigan
nearshore waters. While prolonged periods of rain are not expected,
at least some showers and thunderstorms are possible through much of
the upcoming holiday weekend.&&

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Ba
near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 33 mi31 min S 12 G 17 47°F 1023 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 38 mi41 min WSW 4.1 G 8.9 49°F 46°F
45024 39 mi21 min SSE 9.7 G 12 45°F 42°F1 ft1022.1 hPa44°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last
24hr
NW3
E1
G4
W6
G10
NW6
G10
W6
G11
NW6
G10
W6
G9
SW2
G7
SW2
W2
W2
NW1
W4
G7
SW1
W2
NE1
SW1
G4
NE2
E2
E3
--
W3
G6
SW2
G6
SW3
1 day
ago
SE5
E2
E6
SE6
G10
E10
G15
E8
G13
E7
G11
E7
G10
E6
G9
E9
G12
E7
G11
E6
E7
E6
E6
E5
NE3
NE1
NE2
NE3
N2
--
NW4
W3
2 days
ago
N5
NW4
G9
N5
G8
NW7
G10
N3
G9
NW4
G8
N3
G6
N4
G7
N4
G9
N2
G5
E1
E2
E2
E1
E4
E3
E4
E4
E4
E3
E6
E7
G10
E8
G12
E6
G10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI10 mi16 minW 65.00 miFog/Mist60°F56°F89%1021.7 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI14 mi15 minWSW 710.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hrN6NW6N8N5NW7NW5W7W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW8
1 day agoSE4SE5SE7S7S10
G14
SE8
G14
E7SE5CalmE7E4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmNW5
2 days agoN5NW6N8N7N8N5NW7N4N6N4CalmCalmCalm------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.