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FXUS61 KBTV 181115 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 715 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak upper level trough traversing the region today will provide mostly cloudy skies this morning and partly sunny this afternoon with a few isolated showers possible. On Sunday, a strong upper level ridge will build into the region and take residence into early next week with temperatures rising well above normal to more summer- like levels. The next best chance for appreciable rainfall comes next Wednesday or Thursday with a potential cold front passage.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 715 AM EDT Saturday...The forecast remains on track for this morning, and even though radar returns look strong, especially in the Champlain Valley, surface obs are showing limited rainfall reaching the ground, likely sprinkles at best.
As such, will keep isolated showers (20% PoP) in the forecast, and you might dodge a few raindrops here and there, but the day still looks generally dry.

Previous Discussion...Overall trends for the forecast today have been towards drier conditions in the guidance as a weak shortwave trough traverses the region and interacts with Atlantic moisture streaming northeastward into central/southern New England. Consensus amongst short-range hi- res guidance is for the bulk of the marine moisture to remain east of the Connecticut River Valley with perhaps some isolated showers developing for a short period this afternoon across eastern Vermont. Considering a general lack of strong forcing feel the majority of the region should be dry today with cloudy skies this morning trending partly sunny from west to east this afternoon and highs seasonal in the mid/upper 60s east to to low/mid 70s west.

Tonight and Sunday feature a strong mid/upper level ridge building into the region with strong subsidence aloft supporting nil PoPs.
Skies will continue to clear through the evening and overnight, and considering recent high soil moistures and calm winds, some patchy river valley fog certainly seems plausible. Sunday begins sunny but will see an abundance of fair weather cumulus develop outside of the wider valleys in the afternoon. It will also be the first day of a warming trend going into next week with highs widespread in the 70s with near 80 degrees in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...Quiet weather is expected for this period with surface high pressure prevailing across the Northeast. With light winds and mostly clear skies, expect overnight lows in the 50s with a few upper 40 degree readings in the typically colder spots.
Then we begin our warming trend on Monday, with mid 570 Dm heights nosing in from the southwest. With 925mb temperatures forecast to reach +17 to +20C, expect daytime highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.
A few mid 80s readings are not out of the question. Light winds and plentiful sunshine should make a rather decent day to be outdoors.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the season with little relief overnight Tuesday. 925mb temperatures reach +21 to +24C, or 2 standard deviations above normal. For reference, typical highs for mid to late May are in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Global guidance hints at the potential for some embedded shortwave energy in the building H5 ridge east of the Ohio River valley on Tuesday, so there remains questions how efficient the daytime heating and boundary layer mixing can get. Adding 8C to the forecast 925mb temperatures get us into the mid to upper 80s range, so still quite toasty with marginal to minor heat risk concerns since the population would not have been acclimated. If we do get more clouds than sun on Tuesday, then overnight lows Tuesday night might have a hard time falling below 70 here in the Champlain valley. Additionally, there are indications the cold front could be delayed till late Wednesday or even overnight Wednesday, allowing for yet another day of mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. Bottom line, it would likely be quite toasty and perhaps uncomfortably warm on Tuesday into Wednesday so prepare accordingly.

Heading into Thursday, we do get a reprieve from the heat. While there is a good chance for thunderstorms given the contrasting air mass and cold front, it is far from a slam dunk we will get any kind of severe weather. The main upper low remains over the Upper Midwest, with pieces of weaker shortwave energy peeling off from the parent low and giving our region a glancing blow overnight Wednesday. This setup is not favorable for severe weather across North Country since the best forcing is directed to our north. Given the model differences on the timing of the cold front, have generally kept PoPs in the chance category (less than 54 percent).
It will be a rather significant cooldown for this time of the year, with highs on Friday into Saturday 15 to 20 degrees lower than on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the period under BKN-OVC mid clouds from 6000-12000 feet through midday, becoming SCT-BKN and lowering to 5000-7000 feet this afternoon. A few isolated showers are possible at KMPV and KEFK for a few hours from mid-morning through early afternoon, but visibility should not lower below VFR given the high ceilings.
Winds through the period will range from 5-10kts from the southeast, except at KMSS where the wind direction will be more northeasterly after 14Z. Gradual clearing occurs this evening, and may lead to some BR/FG at KSLK and KMPV after 06Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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