Friday, February15, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Winooski, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:22PM Friday February 15, 2019 10:53 PM EST (03:53 UTC) Moonrise 1:52PMMoonset 4:25AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winooski, VT
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location: 44.49, -73.2     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 160102
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
802 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

A cold front tracking eastward through west-central new york this
afternoon will bring a brief period of rain and snow showers to the
north country through this evening before drier conditions develop
for the rest of the night. A quiet weather weekend is anticipated
with surface high pressure building over the region supplying partly
cloudy skies and slightly below normal temperatures. Our next chance
for precipitation comes Sunday night into Monday as weak low
pressure passes south of the region.

Near term through Saturday night
As of 802 pm est Friday... Forecast remains spot on as of 800 pm
and no changes needed at this time. Got a recent report of
heavy snow near morgan, vt with 1" accumulation which again,
current forecast nails with a quick 1-2" in that area through
900 pm. Have a great night.

Prior discussion... Surface cold front continues to work across
west central new york this afternoon and will shift across the
north country through this evening with period of precipitation
expected. Local and national cam models continue to highlight a
narrow axis of convective showers developing along and the
frontal boundary this afternoon but so far it hasn't become all
that organized with precipitation currently more scattered in
nature over the tug hill. Thinking as this area lifts into the
adirondacks the additional orographic lift will help to organize
the band better so I continue to highlight this in the forecast
with the best chance for precip being across the adirondacks
3-5pm, champlain valley 5-7pm, and eastern vermont 7- 9pm. With
surface temps in the mid 30s to low 40s ahead of the front
expect precip to be mainly rain with some areas of rain snow
mix, but any liquid precip will change to a mix and or snow
before quickly ending as much drier behind the front as evident
on water vapor imagery moves in by midnight with a generally dry
night expected. Exception will be a brief period of lake effect
snow which develops in the lee of lake ontario across the
southwest adirondacks through midnight before it shifts south of
the area as the flow turns more west northwest. Previous
discussion mentioned the potential for black ice given the
potential for wet roads preceding falling temps, but precip
today has been quite light and spotty and with some gusty winds
around feel the threat shouldn't be too widespread. Lows tonight
will be in the teens to low 20s.

For Saturday the parent upper trough currently over the great lakes
will swing through the area with perhaps a few mountain snow showers
and or flurries but low level moisture is rather meager so the
valleys should remain dry. Expect an abundance of clouds cover on
northwest flow but some peeks of sunshine should allow for temps to
rise to near normal values in the 20s to low 30s. Surface high
pressure gradually builds into the region Saturday night with a
trend towards clearing and temps falling into the single digits and
teens area-wide.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
As of 251 pm est Friday... High pressure will be over the northeast
and eastern canada on Sunday for dry weather across the entire area.

Northerly flow will bring colder air into the region with below
normal temperatures expected. Highs will range from the upper teens
near the international border to the upper 20s over south central
vermont. One item of note for Sunday night is the northward
progression of light snow across our area. Strongest forcing remains
well to the south as a low pressure system moves east and remains
south of long island. But with axis of moisture displaced further
north could see some light snow in our area. Have trended with
slightly higher precipitation chances ranging from slight chance
along the international border to about a forty percent chance over
south central vermont. Have worded the precipitation type as light
snow with less than an inch of snow expected. Most of this
precipitation appears to come after midnight Sunday night.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 251 pm est Friday... Light snow comes to an end from northwest
to southeast on Monday as low pressure well to our south continues
moving further away from the area. High pressure builds down from
canada Monday night and persists over the area through Wednesday
morning. Dry weather is expected during this period... But below
normal temperatures are forecast with highs generally in the upper
teens to upper 20s. A change will take place later Wednesday into
the first half of Thursday as shortwave trough moves into the
region. Weak surface reflection associated with this feature will
pass to our south again... But looking at a surge of moisture up
across our area. Warm air advection and some dynamic support should
help to bring a better chance of snow to the area than the Sunday
night into Monday system. Southern parts of our area appear to have
the best chance for accumulating snow... But our whole region should
see some snow. At this time still looking like light amounts as
system is not strong and is relatively progressive.

Aviation 01z Saturday through Wednesday
Through 00z Sunday... A mix ofVFR MVFR is expected through the
period behind the cold front that continues to move across the
region this evening. Ifr ceilings are expected at kmpv and
terminals east of the greens before 02z, after which the front
(and associated precipitation) moves out of our area and winds
turn to the west with ceilings improving toVFR. Tomorrow,
ceilings will become MVFR across the high terrain of new york
and vermont around 16-18z as the upper-level low moves
east... Elsewhere, conditions should remainVFR. Winds will be
from the southwest this evening and remain gusty in the 15-25
knot range, mainly over northern new york, through the
overnight before losing the gusts and becoming more westerly
around 10 knots towards late morning tomorrow.


Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday night:VFR. Slight chance sn.

Washingtons birthday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible.

Slight chance sn.

Monday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday:VFR. Slight chance sn.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Lahiff
near term... Jmg lahiff
short term... Evenson
long term... Evenson
aviation... Larocca

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT3 mi60 minSSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy34°F19°F56%1004.3 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY18 mi61 minWSW 13 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy35°F19°F54%1003.4 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
1 day agoSW4SW10
2 days agoS5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmS4S4S6SW4SW3SW8SW9SW7W7SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.