Monday, May20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Winooski, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:20PM Monday May 20, 2019 3:14 AM EDT (07:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winooski, VT
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location: 44.49, -73.2     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 200532
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
132 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much
of the north country through this evening, then gradually wind
down late tonight. Stronger storms will be capable of producing
locally damaging winds and heavy downpours. A series of surface
fronts on Monday will interact with heat and moisture to bring
another round of strong to locally severe thunderstorms. The
primary threats will again be isolated damaging winds and brief
heavy downpours. Cooler and drier weather returns for midweek.

Near term until 2 pm this afternoon
As of 122 am edt Monday... Showers and thunderstorms continue to
push eastward early this morning. Mainly just elevated
instability remains, but some of these storms are producing
heavy rain. Convection will continue through the overnight,
ending towards early morning.

Previous discussion... Have gone ahead and cancelled the
remainder of severe watch #192 for our southern counties with
all surface layers trending stable at this hour. Still some
elevated instability in the mid-levels in advance of an
approaching surface trough across the eastern great lakes this
evening. Latest hi-res guidance suggests this as well and expect
scattered showers and embedded non-severe thunder to roll on
and off across the area into the overnight hours. Some locally
heavy rainfall in excess of 1 inch will be possible in most
persistent activity given precipitation loading in stronger
updrafts and higher pwats in the 1.2 to 1.5 range. Areas most
likely to see this is across the southern slv into the dacks
where ongoing convective re-initiation has occurred in the past
hour or so. Have a great evening.

Excerpts from prior afternoon discussion... Another round of
strong to possibly severe convection is anticipated tomorrow as
a cold front crosses the region. The question will be how much
heating, and therefore destabilization, can occur ahead of the
frontal passage. Current thinking is we will see at least some
breaks in the cloud cover, which will allow temperatures to rise
into the 70s in most spots. This combined with dewpoints around
60 will result in capes of 800+ j kg. Low level lapse rates
will steepen in the afternoon due to daytime heating and height
falls aloft with approaching upper trough. With 0-6km shear to
be in the 40-50 kt range, anticipate any stronger storms ahead
of the front will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

With timing of frontal passage, storms look to fire in the far
eastern adirondacks western vt around noon, peaking over
central southern vt mid to late afternoon. While best moisture
will positioned to our south, pwats of 1+ inch still point to
the potential for briefly heavy rainfall, as well. Note that
spc's latest day 2 outlook has much of our forecast area in a
marginal risk, with the slight risk area across southeastern vt.

The cold front moves through by early Monday evening, shifting
the bulk of the stronger storms east out of our area. However, a
secondary front will move through later, bringing some
scattered showers as winds turn to the northwest. This will keep
the threat of showers in the higher elevations through the
overnight hours. Much cooler and drier air will follow behind
the fronts, so anticipate lows will drop into the 40s areawide.

Short term 2 pm this afternoon through Tuesday night
As of 414 pm edt Sunday... Upper low rotates ese across nh me
with cold air advection and some instability mountain showers
during peak heating. A little breezy with NW winds 10-20 mph.

Temps will be cooler than past days with highs in the 50s.

Upper low continues to exit ene Tuesday night with some
leftover trofiness and vort axis but right now thinking dry and
cool with some clearing. Lows in the 40s with some 30s in
mountain valleys.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 414 pm edt Sunday... Ridging at all levels Wednesday sets
up for a nice day with plentiful sunshine and temperatures
returning to seasonable levels in the 60s.

Upper level ridging dampens ever so slightly allowing for more
of a wnw flow aloft on Thu possibly allowing a weak disturbance
on the periphery of the ridge to move through and bring about a
chance of a shower two as higher pwats and warm frontal boundary
approach. In the meantime... Looks like a large MCS on the
backside of upper ridge across southern plains will ride over
the ridge toward great lakes.

By Friday... Ridge builds again for a decent day with
temperatures in the 70s.

Friday night-Saturday... A northern stream shortwave dampens
upper level ridge with return flow warm moist air advection
interacting with northern stream energy for possible showers fri
ngt with better chance of scattered showers and possible
t-storm Saturday with highs in the 70s.

On Sunday, we are either in cyclonic wnw flow or gradually
building anti-cyclonic flow as SE CONUS ridge attempts to build
again. In either case we may stay dry for Sunday with temps in
the 60s 70s.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Through 06z Monday... Showers and thunderstorms continue
overnight across vermont, ending by about 12z. Further
convection is expected from 15-00z Monday across southern and
central vermont. Some storms will be strong to severe this
afternoon. Strong turbulence and gusty winds to 35 kts near any
convection. Winds will trend southwesterly later this morning.


Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Tuesday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday:VFR. Chance shra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Slight chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Hastings
near term... Hastings jmg neiles
short term... Slw
long term... Slw
aviation... Jmg neiles

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT3 mi81 minESE 710.00 miOvercast64°F62°F93%1005.9 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY18 mi82 minN 09.00 miA Few Clouds61°F60°F97%1005.4 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS3CalmS5SE7S8S7
1 day agoNW8NW8NW6NW8NW8N5N5CalmNW5N7N9N76N7N7N7N4N4NE3CalmN5E4CalmNW3
2 days agoS5S5CalmCalmE3SE5S5S12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.