Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burlington, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:19PM Thursday November 23, 2017 9:43 AM EST (14:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:00PMMoonset 9:42PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burlington, VT
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.49, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbtv 231121
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
621 am est Thu nov 23 2017

Synopsis
Generally fair weather is expected across the north country for
thanksgiving through Friday with a period of lake effect snow
showers across the western adirondacks tonight. Temperatures
will be seasonably cool today, but moderate to above normal
levels on Friday. The next chance for widespread precipitation
will be on Saturday, mainly in the form of rain, with another
cold front crossing the area.

Near term through Friday
As of 621 am est Thursday... Quick update to earlier forecast,
mainly to adjust temps and sky cover slightly. Also, based on
surface obs, added in some flurries to central and northeastern
vermont through mid-morning.

Previous discussion... Mainly quiet weather is expected for most
of the region over the next 36 hours with the only real concern
being some light lake effect snow working into the western
adirondacks for a period tonight.

Thanksgiving day will start with mainly dry conditions and
varying amounts of cloud cover as low level moisture remains
trapped below a subsidence inversion. Latest IR imagery does
indicate that the drier air aloft is beginning to win out, so i
do expect low clouds to scour out through the morning into
partly sunny skies by this afternoon. Also, based on a few
surface obs and radar imagery, can't rule out some flurries
where low clouds are more persistent. Highs will be on the
chilly side of normal and range through the 30s.

Heading into this evening, a weak surface front and shortwave
trough passing north of the border will shift the low mid level
flow to the southwest allowing a lake effect snow band to
develop off lake ontario. Consensus among the hi-res cam models
is that the band will briefly shift over portions of southern
st. Lawrence and franklin counties in new york from about 00-06z
before moving south and dissipating as the flow weakens and turns
more westerly. Don't expect any big travel impacts, but we
could see a dusting to perhaps an inch in spots, especially in
the ny route 3 corridor around star lake and wanakena.

In the wake of the upper trough passage tonight, high pressure
builds back into the region for Friday with a quiet yet mild day
on tap as southwesterly flow begins to increase again with
another low passing to the northwest of the region. No
precipitation is expected over the forecast area, far removed
from any deep moisture, but temps should warm nicely into the
40s area-wide under partly to mostly sunny skies, especially
across central and southern areas.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 322 am est Thursday...

Friday night: for the most part, it looks dry for the period.

South southwest winds will be on the increase as the pressure
gradient tightens in advance of a front. We should see winds in the
925-850mb layer (roughly 2000-4500 ft) increase into the 45-55kt
range as well. Given a stable near surface boundary layer, most of
this wind will stay above the surface, however it still will get
breezy especially in the champlain and st lawrence valleys as the
flow is channeled up the valleys. Expect gusts on the order of 25-30
mph. It will probably blow even stronger over lake champlain as the
relatively warmer waters will promote better mixing of the near
surface boundary layer. The winds also make for a tricky temperature
forecast. Think in general lows from the champlain valley westward
will occur Friday evening, with a steady to slow rise the rest of
the night. Eastern vermont will be more protected from the winds,
but even late at night will likely see temperatures begin to rise.

Most guidance suggests that precipitation with the front will be
just getting into the st lawrence valley very late, so have painted
in some 20-40% pops in that part of the world after 10z Saturday.

Temperatures aloft will be too warm (+3 to +5c at 850mb)for any
snow, so looking for only light rain.

Saturday: band of light rain showers treks rapidly across the
region, and should be east of the forecast area by early afternoon.

Not really a well defined front, so surface convergence isn't
strong, nor are the upper level dynamics. Thus the band of rain
showers will be weakening as it GOES across. QPF amounts are
expected to be minimal, generally less than 1 10" of rain. Blended
in btv4km, nam3km and NAM output to drive the hourly forecast for
the band of precipitation. As mentioned above, temperatures aloft
will be too warm for snow, even at the highest summits. The colder
temperatures aloft will start to filter in by mid late afternoon, so
although the main batch of showers will have ended, enough low level
moisture along with westerly winds will drive a few residual very
light rain snow showers across the higher terrain.

Saturday night: a fast moving sharp shortwave will approach the
region overnight. With the dynamics and increasing moisture
(partially from flow coming across the great lakes), expecting snow
showers to re-develop across the region, especially the higher
terrain of the adirondacks and northern central green mountains with
orographic enhancement. Light accumulations are expected.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 322 am est Thursday...

Sunday: all guidance indicate the fast moving shortwave will zip
across the region during the day. Thus expect scattered snow
showers, especially during the first half of the day. Looks like
flow turns northwest and strengthens, so this should enhance
orographic enhancement, especially for the northern greens and the
'dacks. Could see additional light accumulations. The trough should
drive enough snow shower activity that even lower elevations may see
a trace to 1 4" of snow. The snow shower activity will quickly fade
during the afternoon as the trough moves away. Although not looking
at a lot of snow, there could still be some slick travel conditions.

Monday Tuesday: the changeable pattern continues. Flow will begin
turning southwest again as a trough develops well to the west and
high pressure moves off the east coast. Thus a moderating trend will
start. Monday will be a bit warmer than Sunday, and Tuesday is
certainly looking mild. 925mb temperatures will be around +5c, so we
may see some valley locations make a run at 50f.

Wednesday: more uncertainty in the models this far out. Both gfs
and ECMWF suggest a cold front will sweep in during the day. However
timing and overall strength of the front is very uncertain. Just
went with the guidance blend at this point to indicate roughly 30-
40% chance of precipitation. With uncertainty in the boundary layer
and temperature profile above the surface, I just painted in
rain snow showers for the potential weather.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Through 12z Friday... Low clouds continue to slowly erode over
the region but are still holding tough across portions of
northern vermont. As we progress through the morning, expect low
clouds to completely scatter out while mid and high level
clouds increase through midnight before generally lowering to
MVFR and locally ifr at kslk where lake effect snow showers
shift into portions of the adirondacks after 02z. Northwest
winds mainly 5-10kts early this morning turn south southwest by
mid-day.

Outlook...

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra,
chance shsn.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra, chance shsn.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shsn.

Sunday night: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Slight chance
shsn.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Lahiff
near term... Lahiff
short term... Nash
long term... Nash
aviation... Lahiff


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT5 mi50 minNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy24°F14°F65%1020.2 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY16 mi51 minNW 410.00 miFair23°F12°F63%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrN8N5N4NE3E4CalmNW4N10NW12NW12N12NW10NW15NW14N15
G20
N10N13N9N6N7N3CalmE5NE6
1 day agoS24
G38
S19
G34
S19
G26
S24
G33
S17
G27
S19
G29
S14S15
G21
S13
G20
S13
G24
S13S14S11S11S13
G19
S13
G22
S13S11S8S10S10SW6NW6N11
2 days agoNW854E4E3CalmNE3SE3CalmE5E4E6E3CalmCalmSE3CalmS9S7S10S12
G20
S13
G19
S16
G23
S12
G27

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.