Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burlington, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday May 23, 2019 6:58 PM EDT (22:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:04AMMoonset 9:18AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burlington, VT
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location: 44.49, -73.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 232005
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
405 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are expected through the
evening hours. Some of the thunderstorms could produce gusty winds
and briefly heavy rainfall. Showers and low clouds will linger
overnight tonight. Drier and slightly cooler weather returns Friday
with northerly winds and highs in the 60s. The next frontal system
brings a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms late in the day
Saturday into Saturday night.

Near term through Friday night
As of 403 pm edt Thursday... Low pressure is skirting across southern
quebec this afternoon, with the warm front remaining to our south
and a cold front stretching southwest into in oh. The prefrontal
trough is crossing the region at this hour, but with the warm sector
remaining to our south, just seeing light to moderate rain.

Instability is limited as dewpoints are only in the 50s for much of
the area. The exception is in st lawrence county, where southwest
winds have allowed dewpoints to reach into the lower 60s. Can't rule
out some a few thunderstorms with gusty winds, especially in those
areas with higher dewpoints, as we head through the afternoon and
early evening, but overall expect the severe threat is marginal at
best. Have therefore removed enhanced strong severe thunderstorm
threats from the forecast. It should be noted that areas west of the
champlain valley remain in a slight risk from spc, so a locally
severe wind gust is still possible.

The cold front will move across the region overnight. Winds will
turn to the west and northwest behind the front, transitioning the
showers to more terrain based. The winds will increase as well,
especially late tonight into Friday morning as the surface low
deepens and moves off the maine coast. Lows will be in the lower to
mid 50s in most spots. The mountain showers will gradually come to
an end through the day Friday as the upper low moves away and drier
air works into the region. Anticipate we'll see breaks in the cloud
cover by late in the afternoon. Winds will subside through the day,
as well. Highs will be in the lower to mid 60s. Clearing skies
Friday night with lows in the 40s.

Short term Saturday through Saturday night
As of 240 pm edt Thursday... H5 ridge crests across the area
during the first half of Saturday, followed quickly by a burst
of warm advection driven showers and the approach of a dampening
shortwave trough Saturday night. Our prior idea of an
increasing threat for showers by later in the afternoon and
overnight still looks reasonable at this point and have
maintained higher pops from 70-90% in this period accordingly.

Best mid-level instability gets shunted south over time so left
thunder chances minimal for now. Highs on Saturday to occur by
early afternoon given increasing clouds - lower to mid 70s, then
seasonably mild Saturday night under broad southerly flow -
50s.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 240 pm edt Thursday... Shortwave trough swings through the
area during Sunday as h5 heights fall and a fairly decent late
spring cold front crosses the area by afternoon. Have maintained
solid chance to low likely pops from late morning into the
afternoon hours (40-60%) and with some modest surface
instability have kept the idea of non-zero thunder chances in
the 20-40% range. Highs remain seasonably warm in the 70s.

Front then clears south Sunday evening with modest cooling and dry
weather returning for Monday. Thereafter the forecast becomes more
uncertain as a mean southeastern us ridge evolves over time
with the the forecast area lying on the northern periphery of
this feature. This will allow the potential for dampening
shortwave trough passages and occasional convective-type debris
activity rolling east-southeast into our area from time to
time. Always difficult to time such features this far out and as
such have held blended 12-hr pops in the chance category in the
Tuesday- Thursday time frame accordingly. Temperatures should
range near to slightly above normal through much of these latter
periods with daily highs mainly in the 70s and overnight lows
ranging from the upper 40s through the 50s.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Through 18z Friday... MainlyVFR conditions through this evening;
however, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly
18-21z across NRN ny, and 21-00z across vt, resulting in brief
periods of MVFR ifr conditions at the TAF locations. Strong
gusty winds are possible with any of the thunderstorms, along
with brief heavy rainfall. The heavier convection moves out by
midnight, but additional showers will develop overnight,
especially at the mountain sites. A cold front will move
through late this evening, and expect ceilings will lower to
MVFR as a stratus deck develops behind the front. These ceilings
will persist into the morning hours Friday, gradually lifting
toVFR after 12z. South winds will be 10-15 kt through the
daylight hours today, then they will shift to the northwest
behind the front. Winds will become gusty Friday morning.

Outlook...

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. Likely shra.

Saturday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Definite shra.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra, slight
chance tsra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra.

Memorial day:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Monday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Marine
A lake wind advisory is in effect, as south winds increase to
15-25 knots across lake champlain late this afternoon into the
evening. Winds will turn to the northwest late tonight behind a
cold front, remaining gusty to around 25 kt. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are also expected, mainly late this afternoon into
the early evening hours.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Hastings
near term... Hastings
short term... Jmg
long term... Jmg
aviation... Banacos hastings
marine... WFO btv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT5 mi65 minS 12 G 236.00 miLight Rain63°F0°F%1008.1 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY16 mi66 minSE 99.00 miLight Rain62°F59°F90%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4E3E3CalmSW3S4SE4SE3E3SE3S4S5S8S7S13
G19
S14
G22
S15
G21
SW12
G17
S10S10S10SE10S11
G19
S12
G23
1 day agoNW16
G23
NW18
G23
N11NW16
G23
NW10N6N3N7N3N4N6N3N4N10NW15NW9NW15
G20
N11NW11
G17
N12NW10NW10N6NW4
2 days agoW18
G27
S5SW10W15
G23
W11W10W9W8
G16
W12W9W9
G17
W14
G23
W10
G19
W13
G22
W11
G18
W9W9NW14
G18
W9
G18
NW14
G23
NW20
G26
NW22
G30
NW13
G31
N18
G27

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.