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FXUS61 KBTV 190531 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 131 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the middle of the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the region with dry conditions persisting; temperatures warm well into the 70s on Sunday and upper 70s to mid 80s by Monday. Building heat will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Remember, the temperature of area lakes and rivers remains below 60 degrees which is hazardous to those unprepared or unaware of the threat of cold water shock.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 131 AM EDT Sunday...Main forecast challenge for the overnight hours is sky cover as a marine layer continue to shift into the region on southeast flow. Much of eastern VT is covered with a thick blanket of low clouds now which will inhibit any fog formation, and keep overnight min temps warmer than previously thought. Clearer skies exist across northern New York, but fog will be very limited based on little to no rainfall yesterday and soundings showing a little bit of wind just above the surface.

For Sunday/Sunday night quiet conditions continue with building mid/upper lvl ridge, resulting in a dry and warm fcst after morning clouds lift. Progged 925mb temps warm btwn 15- 16C which is a few degrees warmer than today and should support highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Winds wl be south at 5 to 10 mph. Sunday night wl be warmer and less areal coverage of fog/br given a day removed from precip and less potential for lows dropping below cross over values. Lows generally in the mid/upper 40s to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 342 PM EDT Saturday...Our warming trend continues on Monday.
Mostly likely high temperatures appear to range from 80 to 84 for most locations with abundant dry air in the 700 millibar level and above sliding through on westerly/northwesterly flow. There may be scattered cumulus with moderately high 850 millibar moisture. As surface based instability grows with daytime heating, sufficient orographic lift should support spot showers and maybe a thunderstorm, especially in the Adirondacks where a chance of showers is indicated. Dry air entrainment and poor mid-level lapse rates do limit the potential of thunderstorms. Very little spatial coverage is expected if anything can fire due to lack of upper level forcing or a surface boundary in the region. Monday night there will be some increasing chances of showers towards daybreak associated with a vigorous shortwave approaching from the central Great Lakes. There are large timing differences with this system, however, as it slides across the upper level ridge in our region, so this part of the forecast is very uncertain at this time. Modest southerly flow will keep temperature rather mild in the upper 50s to low 60s in most locations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 342 PM EDT Saturday...A pretty active weather pattern looks to develop, especially midweek. A mix of both heat and thunderstorm potential exists for multiple days, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. While a heat advisory may not be issued, both the WBGT and experimental HeatRisk have continued to trend higher, well into the moderate range, such that I expect heat impacts will occur in our region. Compared to the previous forecast, Tuesday has trended slightly less hot due to the potential for thunderstorms during the daytime, while Wednesday is now looking like the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 80s in most valley locations.

Tuesday is a sneaky severe thunderstorm day as the aforementioned shortwave Monday night could provide very good support for widespread convection if we see heat build ahead of the upper level forcing. Otherwise, the best largest scale severe weather potential is still indicated for Thursday.
However, looking at cluster analysis for the overlap of shear and CAPE, global models are split. Out of the four most likely scenarios, two suggest the cold front moves through too early in the day to support severe weather, one scenario shows best ingredients to our south, and one does favor our forecast area.
Behind the expected cold frontal passage, temperatures look to return to near normal for the later part of the week.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06Z Monday...Main aviation concern for the period will be through the overnight hours as a thick marine layer continues to shift into the region on southeast flow. Much of eastern Vermont is now under this cloud deck with ceilings MVFR in southeast VT which will likely push over the Green Mtn spine into KRUT in the next few hours. Farther north feel ceilings will remain VFR, and will also inhibit any fog formation. In addition, fog is looking less likely at KSLK due to a little bit of wind just off the surface. After 12-14Z, low clouds lift into a fair weather cumulus deck which will build through the afternoon and clear out after sunset. Winds overnight will be light and variable, and trend SSW at 5-10kts through the day.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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